How to use the advanced (regulator) fuel oil genset power plant project finance model

July 23rd, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) fuel oil genset power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a fuel oil genset (low speed turbo charged) power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a fuel oil genset power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into fuel oil genset power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 1,363 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 903 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 10th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 25.30 $/kW/year (target cost) = 4,802.92 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 36.16 $/MWh (target cost) = 165.27 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 10.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of fuel oil genset fuel = 19,500 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 9,478 Btu/kWh (36.00% thermal efficiency)

Density of diesel fuel = 0.966 kg/Liter

Cost of fuel oil genset fuel = 25.00 PhP/Liter = 514.54 USD/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 225.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 225.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    58.48% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                     95.00% (assumed)

llowance for losses & own use, %                       10.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    50.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.5%

 

construction period = 24 months (start 2014)

operating period = 20 years (start 2016)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   20.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $99.41 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $696.56 11.4%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 21.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 10.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $40.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $786.21 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $181.82 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 10.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 15.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 49.2%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $99
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $196,692
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $400
   Sub-Station Facility $786
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $36,568
   Construction Contingency $9,168
   Value Added Tax $17,229
   Financing Costs $24,011
   Initial Working Capital $21,636
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $306,591
                                 – PhP 000 15,420,619
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $214,613
   Equity $91,977
Total Sources of Fund $306,591

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 49 %

Foreign Capital = 51 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment: (fossil fuel)

Customs duty = 3%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 0% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (49% local, 51% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 11.49898 P/kWh = 0.22862 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC)

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel      119,021,185 6.33976
Lubes              22,988 0.00122
Var O&M        37,918,162 2.01974
Total      156,962,336 8.36072
MWh net        18,773,775
SRMC      156,962,336 8.36072
Fix O&M        10,497,977 0.55918
Capital Cost        48,418,877 2.57907
LRMC      215,879,190 11.49898

 

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00     ‘000$

PAYBACK = 9.52    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 11.70           % p.a.

NPV        = (1,847,006)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 7.07           years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Fuel Oil Genset

 

Download the complete demo model for a fuel oil genset power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 – demo5b

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

CI Fuel Oil Genset 225 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) diesel genset power plant project finance model

July 22nd, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) diesel genset power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a diesel genset power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a diesel genset power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into diesel genset power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 1,040 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 585 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 10th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 10.73 $/kW/year (target cost) = 204.08 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 33.28 $/MWh (target cost) = 111.79 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 10.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of diesel genset fuel = 18,600 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 10,663 Btu/kWh (32.00% thermal efficiency)

Density of diesel fuel = 0.845 kg/L

Cost of diesel genset fuel = 30.00 PhP/L = 705.86 USD/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 25.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 25.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    40.82% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                     100.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                         2.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    40.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.5%

 

construction period = 24 months (start 2014)

operating period = 20 years (start 2016)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   10.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $465.76 11.4%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 21.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 10.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $40.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $786.21 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $181.82 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 10.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 15.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 55.4%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $50
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $14,613
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $400
   Sub-Station Facility $786
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $4,400
   Construction Contingency $792
   Value Added Tax $1,281
   Financing Costs $2,052
   Initial Working Capital $1,607
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $25,982
                                 – PhP 000 1,306,832
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $18,188
   Equity $7,795
Total Sources of Fund $25,982

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 55 %

Foreign Capital = 45 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 120 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment: (fossil fuel)

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 0%

VAT recovery = 0% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (55% local, 45% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 14.26954 P/kWh = 0.28371 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC)

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel        15,720,785 9.42053
Lubes                1,877 0.00112
Var O&M          2,848,052 1.70667
Total        18,570,714 11.12832
MWh net          1,668,780
SRMC        18,570,714 11.12832
Fix O&M            741,261 0.44419
Capital Cost          4,500,753 2.69703
LRMC        23,812,727 14.26954

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00    ‘000$

PAYBACK = 10.12    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 11.35        % p.a.

NPV        = (201,064)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 7.50        years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Diesel Genset

 

Download the complete demo model for a diesel genset power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 – demo5b

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

CI Diesel Genset 50 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the diesel genset model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL power plant project finance model

July 21st, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 2,934 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 1,840 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 12th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 31.18 $/kW/year (target cost) = 16,077.32 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 4.47 $/MWh (target cost) = 32.24 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 371.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of coal-fired fuel = 10,000 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 7,816 Btu/kWh (43.66% thermal efficiency)

Cost of coal-fired fuel = 85.00 $/MT = 4,275 PhP/MT = 4.275 PhP/kg

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 650.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 650.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                     96.37% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                           98.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                       10.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    85.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                                  0.2%

 

construction period = 36 months (start 2014)

operating period = 25 years (start 2017)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   50.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $248.52 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $1,466.50 11.4%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 21.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 10.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $40.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $786.21 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $181.82 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 10.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 15.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 48.7%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $249
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $1,196,298
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $400
   Sub-Station Facility $786
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $213,159
   Construction Contingency $55,150
   Value Added Tax $104,742
   Financing Costs $204,730
   Initial Working Capital $131,593
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $1,907,107
                                 – PhP 000 95,921,933
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $1,334,975
   Equity $572,132
Total Sources of Fund $1,907,107

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 49 %

Foreign Capital = 51 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 120 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 70% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (Yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (49% local, 51% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (Yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (Yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 5.74924 P/kWh = 0.11431 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC)

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel      198,884,219 1.684
Lubes            144,604 0.001
Var O&M        29,356,222 0.249
Total      228,385,045 1.934
MWh net      118,093,560
SRMC      228,385,045 1.934
Fix O&M        52,911,312 0.448
Capital Cost      397,652,284 3.367
LRMC     678,948,641 5.749

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00    ‘000$

PAYBACK = 9.65    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 11.54        % p.a.

NPV        = (12,686,011)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 7.10        years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below

Model Inputs and Results – PC ultrasupercritical

 

Download the complete demo model for a coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

PC Ultrasupercritical 650 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL power plant project finance model

July 21st, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 3,246 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 2,034 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 12th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 37.80 $/kW/year (target cost) = 12,269.05 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 4.47 $/MWh (target cost) = 32.66 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 590.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL fuel = 10,000 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 8,816 Btu/kWh (38.70% thermal efficiency)

Cost of coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL fuel = 85.00 $/MT = 4,275 PhP/MT = 4.275 PhP/kg

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 400.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 400.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                     99.58% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                           97.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                       12.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    85.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                                  0.2%

 

construction period = 36 months (start 2013)

operating period = 25 years (start 2016)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   30.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $149.11 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $1,621.01 11.4%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 21.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 10.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $40.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $786.21 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $181.82 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 10.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 15.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 48.8%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $149
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $813,749
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $400
   Sub-Station Facility $786
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $145,586
   Construction Contingency $37,553
   Value Added Tax $71,274
   Financing Costs $139,390
   Initial Working Capital $89,512
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $1,298,400
                                 – PhP 000 65,305,755
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $908,880
   Equity $389,520
Total Sources of Fund $1,298,400

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 49 %

Foreign Capital = 51 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 120 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 70% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (49% local, 51% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 6.45015 P/kWh = 0.12824 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC)

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel      141,186,713 1.943
Lubes              91,010 0.001
Var O&M        18,475,944 0.254
Total      159,753,666 2.198
MWh net        72,672,960
SRMC      159,753,666 2.198
Fix O&M        38,097,392 0.524
Capital Cost      270,900,430 3.728
LRMC      468,751,489 6.450

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00    ‘000$

PAYBACK = 9.65    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 11.54        % p.a.

NPV        = (8,647,593)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 7.11        years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below

Model Inputs and Results – PC supercritical

 

Download the complete demo model for a coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

PC Supercritical 400 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) coal-fired CFB power plant project finance model

July 20th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) coal-fired CFB power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a coal-fired CFB power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a coal-fired CFB power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into coal-fired CFB power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 2,934 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 1,835 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 12th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 31.18 $/kW/year (target cost) = 3,341.56 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 4.47 $/MWh (target cost) = 33.06 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 465.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of coal-fired CFB fuel = 10,000 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 11,725 Btu/kWh (29.10% thermal efficiency)

Cost of coal-fired CFB fuel = 85.00 $/MT = 4,275 PhP/MT = 4.275 PhP/kg

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 135.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 135.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    98.56% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                      98.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                      12.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    85.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.2%

 

construction period = 36 months (start 2013)

operating period = 25 years (start 2016)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   20.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $99.41 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $1,462.46 11.4%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 21.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 10.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $20.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $393.00 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $91.00 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 10.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 15.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 48.9%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $99
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $247,778
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $200
   Sub-Station Facility $393
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $44,683
   Construction Contingency $11,458
   Value Added Tax $21,694
   Financing Costs $42,530
   Initial Working Capital $27,256
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $396,090
                                 – PhP 000 19,922,178
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $277,263
   Equity $118,827
Total Sources of Fund $396,090

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 49 %

Foreign Capital = 51 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 120 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 70% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (Yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (49% local, 51% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (Yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (Yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013           48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 6.71192 P/kWh = 0.13345 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC)

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel        63,373,672 2.584
Lubes              30,716 0.001
Var O&M        6,235,631 0.254
Total        69,640,019 2.839
MWh net        24,527,124
SRMC        69,640,019 2.839
Fix O&M        11,711,402 0.477
Capital Cost        83,272,630 3.395
LRMC      164,624,051 6.712

 

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00    ‘000$

PAYBACK = 9.67    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 11.53        % p.a.

NPV        = (2,677,030)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 7.14        years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – 135 mw CFB

 

Download the complete demo model for a coal-fired CFB power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

CFB Coal-fired 135 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the coal-fired CFB model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) ocean current and tidal current power plant project finance model

July 13th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) ocean current and tidal current power plant project finance model

(Lord God, bless my website and my readers that they will contribute to my charity fund for the jobless, sickly, needy, homeless, hungry and destitute. God Bless you all my friends for reading my blog and ordering my project finance models. Amen.)

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for an ocean current and tidal current power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a tidal current power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into tidal current power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 2,473 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 1,112 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 10th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 86.19 $/kW/year (target cost) = 203.36 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 2.40 $/MWh (target cost) = 15.89 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 500.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs: (not used in tidal current)

Gross heating value of tidal current fuel = 5,198 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 13,500 Btu/kWh (25.28% thermal efficiency)

Cost of tidal current fuel = 1.299 PhP/kg = 1,299 PhP/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 3.00 MW/unit x 10 units = 30.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    86.42% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                      90.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                      10.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    70.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.2%

 

construction period = 24 months (start 2015)

operating period = 20 years (start 2017)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   6.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $29.82 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $788.72 0.0%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 10.0% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 31.0% 66.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 10.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $84.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $3,000.00 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $2,200.00 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 10.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 2.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 0% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 1.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 7.5% 59.0%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
    Land Cost $30
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $33,363
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $840
   Sub-Station Facility $3,000
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $22,667
   Construction Contingency $4,490
   Value Added Tax $3,360
   Financing Costs $5,958
   Initial Working Capital $334
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $74,041
                                 – PHP 000 3,724,071
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $51,829
   Equity $22,212
Total Sources of Fund $74,041

 

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 59 %

Foreign Capital = 41 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 70% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 0 (none)

Type of incentives = 2 (BOI incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 7
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 10%
Property tax (from COD) 1.5%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 1.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PHP/kWh) 0.0100
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 5%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 16.44% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (59% local, 41% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 4.149573 P/kWh = 0.08342 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC)

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel                     – 0.000
Lubes                4,420 0.001
Var O&M            479,679 0.133
Total            484,099 0.134
MWh net          3,609,295
SRMC            484,099 0.134
Fix O&M          3,365,945 0.933
Capital Cost        11,293,574 3.129
LRMC        15,143,618 4.196

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 16.44    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00    ‘000$

PAYBACK = 7.51    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 13.19        % p.a.

NPV        = (522,705)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 16.44%)

PAYBACK = 6.30        years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 16.44% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Tidal Current

 

Download the complete demo model for a tidal current power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW – demo5b

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount (only USD400 for two models), click the link below:

 

30 mw Tidal Current Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the tidal current model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) solar PV power plant project finance model

July 13th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) solar PV (photo voltaic) power plant project finance model

(Lord God, bless my website and my readers that they will contribute to my charity fund for the jobless, sickly, needy, homeless, hungry and destitute. God Bless you all my friends for reading my blog and ordering my project finance models. Amen.)

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a solar PV power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a solar PV power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into solar PV power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 2,700 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 2,127 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 10th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 24.69 $/kW/year (target cost) = 1.07 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 2.00 $/MWh (target cost) = 2.56 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 10.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs: (not used in solar PV)

Gross heating value of solar PV fuel = 5,198 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 10,663 Btu/kWh (32.00% thermal efficiency)

Cost of solar PV fuel = 1.299 PhP/kg = 1,299 PhP/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 0.125 MW/unit x 200 units = 25.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    27.13% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                      95.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                       3.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    25.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.2%

 

construction period = 12 months (start 2015)

operating period = 20 years (start 2016)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   10.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    15.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $29.82 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $1,508.20 21.7%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 10.0% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 31.0% 50.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 5.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $84.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $145.00 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $43.74 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 5.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 2.0% 70.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 0% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 1.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 7.5% 41.0%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $30
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $53,164
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $420
   Sub-Station Facility $145
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $1,282
   Construction Contingency $4,126
   Value Added Tax $4,576
   Financing Costs $3,262
   Initial Working Capital $532
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $67,537
                                 – PhP 000 3,396,903
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $47,276
 Equity $20,261
Total Sources of Fund $67,537

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 41 %

Foreign Capital = 59 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 70% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 0 (none)

Type of incentives = 2 (BOI incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 7
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 10%
Property tax (from COD) 1.5%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 1.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 5%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 16.44% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (41% local, 59% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 9.99541 P/kWh = 0.1987 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC)

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel                     – 0.000
Lubes                1,220 0.001
Var O&M              64,281 0.060
Total              65,501 0.061
MWh net          1,074,195
SRMC              65,501 0.061
Fix O&M            920,923 0.857
Capital Cost          9,750,600 9.077
LRMC        10,737,024 9.995

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 16.44    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00    ‘000$

PAYBACK = 8.02    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 13.56        % p.a.

NPV        = (426,008)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 16.44%)

PAYBACK = 6.52        years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 16.44% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare a all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Solar PV

 

Download the complete demo model for a solar PV power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 – demo5b

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount (only USD400 for two models), click the link below:

Solar PV 25 mw Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the solar PV model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) solar CSP power plant project finance model

July 12th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) solar CSP (concentrated solar power) plant project finance model

(Lord God, bless my website and my readers that they will contribute to my charity fund for the jobless, sickly, needy, homeless, hungry and destitute. God Bless you all my friends for reading my blog and ordering my project finance models. Amen.)

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a solar CSP power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a solar CSP power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into solar CSP power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 5,881 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 4,526 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 10th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 24.69 $/kW/year (target cost) = 2,144.03 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 2.00 $/MWh (target cost) = 15.69 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 100.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs: (not applicable to solar CSP)

Gross heating value of solar CSP fuel = 5,198 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 10,663 Btu/kWh (32.00% thermal efficiency)

Cost of biomass fuel = 1.299 PhP/kg = 1,299 PhP/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 200.00 MW/unit x 2 units = 400.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    96.67% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                      95.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                       2.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    90.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.2%

 

construction period = 24 months (start 2016)

operating period = 25 years (start 2018)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   10.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    15.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $29.82 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $3,209.89 15.0%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 10.0% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 31.0% 50.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 15.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $84.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $145.00 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $44.19 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 15.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 2.0% 50.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 0% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 1.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 7.5% 36.5%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $30
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $1,810,379
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $1,260
   Sub-Station Facility $145
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $36,870
   Construction Contingency $138,649
   Value Added Tax $165,337
   Financing Costs $181,578
   Initial Working Capital $18,104
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $2,352,351
                                 – PhP 000 118,316,450
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $1,646,646
   Equity $705,705
Total Sources of Fund $2,352,351

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 36.5 %

Foreign Capital = 63.5 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 70% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 0 (none)

Type of incentives = 2 (BOI incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 7
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 10%
Property tax (from COD) 1.5%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 1.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 5%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (36.5% local, 63.5% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 5.51450 P/kWh = 0.10964 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC)

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel                      – 0.000
Lubes              86,530 0.001
Var O&M          7,889,902 0.103
Total          7,976,432 0.104
MWh net        76,947,840
SRMC          7,976,432 0.104
Fix O&M        35,245,717 0.458
Capital Cost      381,107,017 4.953
LRMC      424,329,167 5.515

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00    ‘000$

PAYBACK = 10.28    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 11.91        % p.a.

NPV        = (13,405,736)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 7.22        years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare a all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Solar CSP

 

Download the complete demo model for a solar CSP power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 – demo5b

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount (only USD400 for two models), click the link below:

CSP 400 mw Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the solar CSP model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) onshore wind power plant project finance model

July 10th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) onshore and offshore wind power plant project finance model

(Lord God, bless my website and my readers that they will contribute to my charity fund for the jobless, sickly, needy, homeless, hungry and destitute. God Bless you all my friends for reading my blog and ordering my project finance models. Amen.)

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for an onshore wind power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a onshore wind power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into onshore wind power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 2,213 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 1,496 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 10th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 39.55 $/kW/year (target cost) = 16.28 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 2.00 $/MWh (target cost) = 4.85 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 200.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs: (not applicable to wind energy)

Gross heating value of onshore wind fuel = 5,198 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 13,500 Btu/kWh (25.28% thermal efficiency)

Cost of onshore wind fuel = 1.299 PhP/kg = 1,299 PhP/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 0.500 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 1.500 MW/unit x 10 units = 15.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                          36.90% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                                95.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                                3.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %         34.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                                     0.2%

Annual generation                                                        46,058 (MWh gross)

44,676 (MWh net)

 

construction period = 12 months (start 2014)

operating period = 20 years (start 2016)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   3.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $14.91 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $1,031.66 15.2%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 10.0% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 35.0% 40.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 25.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $69.77 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $1,814.00 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $51.16 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 15.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc.) (% of EPC) 2.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 0% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 1.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 7.5% 45.0%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $15
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $22,439
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $1,744
   Sub-Station Facility $1,814
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $1,216
   Construction Contingency $2,041
   Value Added Tax $2,088
   Financing Costs $1,614
   Initial Working Capital $224
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $33,195
                                – PhP 000 1,669,612
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $23,237
   Equity $9,959
Total Sources of Fund $33,195

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital   = 45 %

Foreign Capital = 55 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables      = 30 days of expenses

Inventory     = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 70% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 0 (none)

Type of incentives = 2 (BOI incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 7
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 10%
Property tax (from COD) 1.5%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 1.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 5%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 16.44% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share   = 70% (45% local, 55% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014             48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2015           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX        0.0%            4.0%      for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX            0.0%            2.0%      for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 6.39759 P/kWh = 0.12720 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC):

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel 0.000
Lubes 92 0.000
Var O&M 73,223 0.084
Total 73,315 0.084
MWh net 876,543
SRMC 73,315 0.084
Fix O&M 714,656 0.815
Capital Cost 4,819,795 5.499
LRMC 5,607,766 6.398

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR           = 16.44     % p.a. (target returns)

NPV         = 0.00     ‘000$

PAYBACK = 8.04     years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR           = 13.61         % p.a.

NPV         = (205,576)   ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 16.44%)

PAYBACK = 6.51         years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 16.44% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Onshore Wind

 

Download the complete demo model for an onshore wind power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 – demo5b

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 (USD) – demo5b

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 – demo5b

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount (only USD400 for two models), click the link below:

 http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/on-shore-wind-power-project-finance-model-ver-3-in-usd-and-php-currency/

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-offshore-wind-project-finance-model-ver-3/

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the onshore and offshore wind model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) power plant project finance model

July 10th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) power plant project finance model

(Lord God, bless my website and my readers that they will contribute to my charity fund for the jobless, sickly, needy, homeless, hungry and destitute. God Bless you all my friends for reading my blog and ordering my project finance models. Amen.)

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for an ocean thermal power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on an ocean thermal power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into ocean thermal power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 11,197 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 8,013 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 15th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 58.11 $/kW/year (target cost) = 327.08 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 1.48 $/MWh (target cost) = 8.81 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 600.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs: (not applicable to ocean thermal)

Gross heating value of ocean thermal fuel = 5,198 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 13,500 Btu/kWh (25.28% thermal efficiency)

Cost of ocean thermal fuel = 1.299 PhP/kg = 1,299 PhP/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 16.00 MW/unit x 5 units = 80.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    98.68% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                      95.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                      36.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    60.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.2%

 

construction period = 26 months (start 2015)

operating period = 25 years (start 2018)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   6.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $29.82 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $5,683.03 0.0%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 10.0% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 31.0% 66.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 10.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $84.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $3,000.00 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $2,200.00 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 10.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 2.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 0% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 1.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 7.5% 30.0%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values):

Uses of Fund:
    Land Cost $30
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $641,046
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $840
   Sub-Station Facility $3,000
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $34,821
   Construction Contingency $50,978
   Value Added Tax $64,590
   Financing Costs $94,045
   Initial Working Capital $6,410
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $895,760
                                 – PhP 000 45,054,130
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $627,032
   Equity $268,728
Total Sources of Fund $895,760

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 33 %

Foreign Capital = 67 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 70% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 0 (none)

Type of incentives = 2 (BOI incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 7
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 10%
Property tax (from COD) 1.5%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 1.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 5%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty  0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 16.44% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (33% local, 67% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013           48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 17.85986 P/kWh = 0.35509 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC):

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel                      – 0.000
Lubes              17,667 0.002
Var O&M            885,860 0.086
Total            903,527 0.088
MWh net        10,259,712
SRMC            903,527 0.088
Fix O&M        13,857,218 1.351
Capital Cost      168,476,263 16.421
LRMC      183,237,009 17.860

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 16.44    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00    ‘000$

PAYBACK = 6.84    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 12.53        % p.a.

NPV        = (7,627,154)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 16.44%)

PAYBACK = 6.22        years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 16.44% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Ocean Thermal

 

Download the complete demo model for an ocean thermal power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW (USD) – demo5b

OTEC 50 mw Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount (only USD400 for two models), click the link below:

OTEC 50 mw Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the ocean thermal model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) biomass power plant project finance model

July 9th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) biomass power plant project finance model

(Lord God, bless my website and my readers that they will contribute to my charity fund for the jobless, sickly, needy, homeless, hungry and destitute. God Bless you all my friends for reading my blog and ordering my project finance models. Amen.)

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a biomass power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a biomass power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into biomass power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 4,114 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 2,848 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 10% of EPC cost on the 10th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 105.63 $/kW/year (target cost) = 5,132.47 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 5.26 $/MWh (target cost) = 27.22 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 10.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of biomass fuel = 5,198 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 12,186 Btu/kWh (28.00% thermal efficiency)

Cost of biomass fuel = 1.299 PhP/kg = 1,299 PhP/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 50.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 50.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                         97.08% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                            95.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                            10.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %         83.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                                      0.2%

 

construction period = 24 months (start 2014)

operating period = 20 years (start 2016)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   50.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    28.65 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $284.81 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $1,964.38 24.7%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 10.0% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 35.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 10.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $20.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $569.03 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $20.00 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 10.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc.) (% of EPC) 10.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 0% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 50.0%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $285
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $142,417
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $200
   Sub-Station Facility $569
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $14,442
   Construction Contingency $6,305
   Value Added Tax $9,253
   Financing Costs $16,563
   Initial Working Capital $15,666
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $205,700
                                 – PhP 000 10,346,113
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $143,990
   Equity $61,710
Total Sources of Fund $205,700

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital   = 59 %

Foreign Capital = 41 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables      = 30 days of expenses

Inventory     = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 70% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 0 (none)

Type of incentives = 2 (BOI incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 7
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 10%
Property tax (from COD) 1.5%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 1.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 5%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 16.44% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share   = 70% (59% local, 41% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX        0.0%            4.0%      for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX            0.0%            2.0%      for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 7.39755 P/kWh = 0.1471 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC):

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel        10,951,959 1.535
Lubes                8,734 0.001
Var O&M        2,085,235 0.292
Total        13,045,928 1.829
MWh net        7,132,655
SRMC        13,045,928 1.829
Fix O&M        7,453,730 1.045
Capital Cost        32,264,546 4.523
LRMC        52,764,204 7.398

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR           = 16.44     % p.a. (target returns)

NPV         = 0.00     ‘000$

PAYBACK = 7.27     years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR           = 13.22         % p.a.

NPV         = (1,451,954)   ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 16.44%)

PAYBACK = 6.24         years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 16.44% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Biomass Cogeneration

 

Download the complete demo model for a biomass power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount (only USD400 for two models), click the link below:

Biomass Cogeneration Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

Biomass Gasification Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

Biomass IGCC Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

Biomass WTE Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

Biomass WTE-pyrolysis Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the biomass model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) mini-hydro power plant project finance model

July 9th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) mini-hydro power plant project finance model

(Lord God, bless my website and my readers that they will contribute to my charity fund for the jobless, sickly, needy, homeless, hungry and destitute. God Bless you all my friends for reading my blog and ordering my project finance models. Amen.)

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a mini-hydro power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a mini-hydro power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into mini-hydro power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 3,523 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 2,434 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 12th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 16.96 $/kW/year (target cost) = 33.94 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 2.40 $/MWh (target cost) = 8.73 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 20.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs: (not used in mini-hydro)

Gross heating value of biomass fuel = 5,198 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 12,186 Btu/kWh (28.00% thermal efficiency)

Cost of biomass fuel = 1.299 PhP/kg = 1,299 PhP/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 0.54 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 3.60 MW/unit x 1 unit = 3.60 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                        48.06% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                              92.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                            2.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %       43.33% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                                      0.5%

 

construction period = 24 months (start 2014)

operating period = 25 years (start 2016)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   1.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $4.97 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $2,064.54 43.0%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 10.0% 80.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 3.50
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $84.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $500.00 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $20.00 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 3.50
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 2.5% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 0% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 5.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 7.5% 50.0%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $5
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $8,510
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $294
   Sub-Station Facility $500
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $283
   Construction Contingency $719
   Value Added Tax $569
   Financing Costs $988
   Initial Working Capital $426
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $12,293
                                 – PhP 000 618,317
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $8,605
   Equity $3,688
Total Sources of Fund $12,293

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital   = 58%

Foreign Capital = 42%

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables     = 30 days of expenses

Inventory     = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 70% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 0 (none)

Type of incentives = 2 (BOI incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

 

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 7
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 10%
Property tax (from COD) 1.5%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 1.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.0100
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 5%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty to NIA 2%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 16.44% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share   = 70% (58% local, 42% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

 

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX        0.0%            4.0%      for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX            0.0%            2.0%      for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year electricity tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 7.9414 PhP/kWh = 0.1579 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC)

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel                      – 0.000
Lubes                    36 0.000
Var O&M              39,514 0.123
Total              39,551 0.123
MWh net            321,142
SRMC              39,551 0.123
Fix O&M            258,711 0.806
Capital Cost        2,252,058 7.013
LRMC        2,550,320 7.941

 

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR           = 16.44     % p.a. (target returns)

NPV         = 0.00     ‘000$

PAYBACK = 7.82     years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR           = 13.33         % p.a.

NPV         = (87,029)   ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 16.44%)

PAYBACK = 6.37         years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 16.44% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Mini-hydro

 

Download the complete demo model for a mini-hydro power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3 – demo5b

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount (only USD400 for two models), click the link below:

Mini-Hydro Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the mini-hydro model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Technologies – a mini-lecture series with power point presentation and excel project finance models

July 4th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Technologies – a mini-lecture series with power point presentation and excel project finance models

(Lord God, bless my website and my readers that they will contribute to my charity fund for the jobless, sickly, needy, homeless, hungry and destitute. God Bless you all my friends for reading my blog and ordering my project finance models. Amen.)

Your energy technology selection expert is beginning a lecture series on power generation and fuel cycle technologies. This will involve a discussion on the principles of the technology, its history, capital and operating costs, benefits and risks.

Objectives

1) To provide the participants a basic understanding of the following commercially available:

– fuel cycle technologies

– power generation technologies, and

– energy storage technologies

2) To know the basic principles, costs, environmental impact, risks and applicability of each of these technologies, and

3) To present the technology roadmap of each of these technologies to guide us in the near term (next 20 years – up to 2020) and in the long term (next 50 years – up to 2050)

The Past

o Introduction – what-is-electricity

o How is Electricity Generated – generation-of-electricity

o History of Power Generation – history-of-power-generation

o The Complete Electric Power System (base load, intermediate & peaking loads)

The Present

o Commercially Available Fuel Technologies, Power Generation Technologies, and Energy Storage Technologies –

commercially-available-fuel-cycle-technologies

o Primary Energy Sources – primary-energy-sources

o Fuel Properties – fuel-properties

o For the commercially available technologies:

– Basic Principles

– Costs

– Environmental Impact

– Associated Risks

– Applicability

COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES:

The Future

o The Technology Roadmap: Vision, Portfolio, Approach, Global Drivers of Change, Cost of Not Yet Commercially Available Technology –

technology-roadmap

o The Near Term Fuel, Power Generation, and Energy Storage Technologies (up to 2020) –

near-term-energy-sources

o The Long Term Fuel, Power Generation, and Energy Storage Technologies (up to 2050) –

long-term-energy-sources

=========

Email me for the power point presentations (in pdf format):

mars_ocampo@yahoo.com

energydataexpert@gmail.com

=============================================

PROJECT FINANCE MODELS (in Philippine Currency)

Try the models below in Philippine Currency (other currencies are available such as USD, EUR, GBP, CNY, THB, MYR, IDR, INR, etc.).

Group 1 – Renewable Energy Technologies:

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis – demo5b

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3 – demo5b

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW – demo5b

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW – demo5b

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW (PHP) – demo5b

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3 – demo5b

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 – demo5b

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 – demo5b

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 – demo5b

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 – demo5b

To avail of the Group 1 (renewables) package, click on the link below or paste to your browser:

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/group-1-renewable-energy-biomass-solar-wind-mini-hydro-ocean-tidal/

Group 2 – Clean Coal Technologies:

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

To avail of the Group 2 (pulverized coal, clean coal CFB) package, click the link below or paste to your browser:

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/group-2-coal-technologies-pulverized-clean-coal-cfb/

Group 3 – Conventional & Fossil & Nuclear Technologies:

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 – demo5b

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 – demo5b

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Geo Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Large Hydro Model3 – demo5b

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 – demo5b

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 – demo5b

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 – demo5b

To avail of the Group 3 (conventional, fossil, nuclear and petcoke) package, click the link below or paste to your browser:

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/group-3-conventional-fossil-nuclear-oil-coal-gas-geo-nuclear-petcoke/

Group 4 – Combined Heat & Power (CHP) and Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) Systems:

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW CHP – demo5b

ADV Diesel Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

ADV Fuel Oil Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

ADV Gasoline Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

ADV Propane Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

ADV Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

To avail of the Group 4 (combined heat & power, waste heat recovery boiler) package, click the link below or paste to your browser:

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/group-4-combined-heat-power-chp-and-waste-heat-recovery-boiler/

=========

Download any of the above models to see its capabilities and ease of using.

Regards,

Your energy technology selection expert and project finance modeling expert

Email me for more details:

mars_ocampo@yahoo.com

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit us:

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

When Nuclear Energy is not viable or applicable

June 28th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in power generation

When Nuclear Energy is not viable or applicable

The alternative to large-scale nuclear power is to use ocean energy – from waves, thermal gradients and ocean currents – and tidal currents due to changes in sea elevation resulting from gravitational forces of the moon and sun on the earth’s surface. Ocean and tidal currents are predictable unlike intermittent renewable solar PV, solar CSP, wind and to some extent mini-hydro which depends on rainfall. Stored biomass and waste-to-energy systems (gasification, pyrolysis) may provide dispatcheable power to act as baseload, together with predictable ocean and tidal currents – is the key to a reliable and stable electricity grid in the future.

But we still need other conventional and fossil energy sources such as oil, coal, natural gas, geothermal, hydro, simple and combined cycle gas turbines running on liquid and gaseous fuels to provide additional base load and mid-merit load, as well as high-speed peaking load plants to stabilize the electrical network.

I will soon start a mini-series on power generation technologies and present the description, theory, history, capital cost and operating cost, emissions, environmental impacts, benefits and risks of each technology.

From this information, I will then present a template project finance model for each technology to illustrate its economic viability and how it could compete in the electricity grid and thus dispatched to meet its revenue requirements to repay both equity and debt investors.

By using these template models to compute the short run marginal cost (SRMC = variable O&M cost + fuel cost + lube oil cost) and long run marginal cost (LRMC = annualized capital cost + fixed O&M + regulatory cost + SRMC), the energy & power planner can stack up the dependable power generation capacities from the cheapest to the most expensive SRMC or LRMC. The power technologies or power plants in the stack up to the power demand of the grid then gets dispatched and this is how we can ensure that dispatched power is the cheapest cost possible while meeting power demand.

Cheers

Email me to register to this mini-series. First come first serve.

energydataexpert@gmail.com

 

Get my project finance models – renewable, coal, conventional and waste heat recovery

June 27th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Get my project finance models – renewable, coal, conventional and waste heat recovery

Yes, get any of the 4 groups of project finance models this week until July 15, 2017.

Please see the demo models below and email me ASAP which group you want and what currency you want the model (e.g. PHP, USD, EUR, GBP, CNY, JPY, AUS, and all Asian, Oceana, Middle East, African, European, North American and Latin American currencies).

Group 1 – Renewable Energy (USD 2,000) Technologies – all models:

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis – demo5b

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3 – demo5b

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW – demo5b

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW – demo5b

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW (INR) – demo5b

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3 – demo5b

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 – demo5b

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 – demo5b

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 – demo5b

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 – demo5b

To avail of the Group 1 (renewables) package, click on the link below or paste to your browser:

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/group-1-renewable-energy-biomass-solar-wind-mini-hydro-ocean-tidal/

Group 2 – Clean Coal Technologies (USD 2,000) all models:

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

To avail of the Group 2 (pulverized coal, clean coal CFB) package, click the link below or paste to your browser:

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/group-2-coal-technologies-pulverized-clean-coal-cfb/

Group 3 – Conventional & Fossil Technologies (USD 2,000) all models:

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 – demo5b

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 – demo5b

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Geo Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Large Hydro Model3 – demo5b

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 – demo5b

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 – demo5b

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 – demo5b

To avail of the Group 3 (conventional, fossil, nuclear and petcoke) package, click the link below or paste to your browser:

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/group-3-conventional-fossil-nuclear-oil-coal-gas-geo-nuclear-petcoke/

Group 4 – Combined Heat & Power (CHP) and Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) Systems (USD 2,000) – all models:

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW CHP – demo5b

ADV Diesel Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

ADV Fuel Oil Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

ADV Gasoline Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

ADV Propane Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

ADV Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

To avail of the Group 4 (combined heat & power, waste heat recovery boiler) package, click the link below or paste to your browser:

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/group-4-combined-heat-power-chp-and-waste-heat-recovery-boiler/

Download any of the above models to see its capabilities and ease of using.

Regards,

Your energy technology selection expert and project finance modeling expert

Email me for more details:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit us:

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

A Generic Strategy for Reducing Electricity Cost, Environmental Impact, and Promote Inclusive Economic Growth in Communities Hosting Energy & Power Industries

June 21st, 2017 No Comments   Posted in power generation

A Generic Strategy for Reducing Electricity Cost, Environmental Impact, and Promoting Inclusive Economic Growth in Communities Hosting Energy & Power Industries

Marcial Ocampo has a lifetime dream and advocacy: to help the country (Philippines) reduce its energy & power costs and consumption by optimizing the capacity and generation mix, reduce oil and energy imports by promoting indigenous resources, reduce the environmental impact footprint of power plants, and promote inclusive economic growth especially for the marginalized communities hosting the power plants and sources of fuels or energy.

Among the generic measures he proposes that can be applied to any country, especially countries with renewable energy sources, are as follows:

1) Use of advanced mixed integer linear programming (MILP) optimization software to process existing power plant data on capacity, efficiency or heat rate, availability and reliability, capital & operating costs, fuel costs & heating value, ramp-up and ramp-down rates and environmental emissions to optimize short-term and long-term capacity and generation mix, in order to achieve cheapest short-run generation cost (SRMC) and least cost long-run capacity expansion (LRMC).

2) Improve the quality of power generation (reliability, availability, frequency, load-following, backup reserves) in the country by having an optimal mix that balances the need for intermittent renewable energy for sustainable growth that also requires high-speed fossil generation to backup such intermittent technologies such as when the sun and wind becomes unavailable momentarily and stabilize the electrical network.

3) Make use of all municipal solid wastes (MSW), liquid and gaseous wastes (bio-gas and land-fill gas) to provide distributed power generation and process heat throughout the country in order to address waste collection, treatment, storage, sanitation and disposal problems. Not all cities and municipalities have access to geologic sites like gullies that can support environmentally sanitary landfills, so it is important that groups of cities and municipalities pool their resources to have a common and centrally located waste-to-energy system (gasification, pyrolysis) power plant utilizing MSW and biological wastes in order to reduce the size of MSW and its treatment residues.

4) Make use of all indigenous energy and fuel resources in the country in order to conserve precious foreign exchange (to purchase petroleum fuels, coal), utilize local coal and natural gas reserves, use carbon-neutral biomass from trees and shrubs to provide fuel pellets to co-fire boilers using oil and coal and thus initiate a gradual shift from fossil to renewable biomass power generation. I believe that anti-coal environmental advocates should take a second and favorable look into indigenous coal since later on, as the world runs out of fossil fuel, the country needs them for power and fuel security. Coal is a transition fuel as the world converts from oil products to renewable energy and delays the depletion of crude oil. It would be a crime in the future to burn oil products as fuel since scarce oil is more needed for lubrication of industrial and transport machineries and manufacture of pharmaceuticals and other chemicals.

5) Make use of available renewable energy such as biomass, waste-to-energy, solar PV, solar CSP, wind, mini-hydro and ocean energy provided by waves, thermal gradients, ocean currents and tidal flows due to the gravitational effects of the moon and sun on the earth’s surface that give rise to ocean currents or tidal currents in the vast oceans of the world. Estimates of 1.0 – 2.5 meters per second of ocean and tidal currents are found in the coastal vicinities of Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and Philippines. Ocean currents are predictable and nearly constant as against intermittent solar and wind.

6) To utilize off-peak renewable energy to store energy in elevated dams or barriers, for future release using water turbines when peak energy and power is required. Energy may be stored as potential energy or as chemical energy in the form of Hydrogen gas from electrolysis of water using off-peak electricity and extracted in thermal plants or in fuel cells.

7) Let us integrate renewable energy in the design of our civil and transport infrastructures like putting solar PV and small-scale wind turbines in long-span bridges and dams, or putting ocean and tidal current water turbines under bridges or barrages that connects islands between straits, or when lakes or large marsh lands are surrounded with elevated highways that serves as flood control structures and provided with low-head water turbines to capture the energy of the released flood waters, just like in conventional large impoundment dams. This is one way of reducing the cost of the renewable energy by integrating them in the design and construction of public infrastructures. Building Integrated Photo Voltaic (BIPV) solar panels and rooftop-mounted solar heaters are now used in commercial buildings like malls, hotels and residential buildings to provide electricity and hot water.

8) Lastly, to reduce power costs drastically, adopt mine-mouth clean coal power generation technology (e.g. CFB). By using the low-BTU lignite coal reserves spread throughout the Philippine archipelago, which is economical only to use in mine-mouth configuration due to its low BTU, high moisture, high ash content, but low in sulfur and the mine adjacent to nearby limestone deposits, we can bring down further the electricity cost from base-load coal-fired power plants as it saves on the cost of logistics – hauling coal and barging or shipping costs – which are significant cost items. By integrating mine-mouth coal power plant with co-firing with biomass wood pellets coming from mature rubber trees and other fast-growing trees, the country can provide cheaper power without harming the environment and provide local job opportunities to coal miners and workers of tree plantations near the mine-mouth coal power plant. Planting rubber trees provide an immediate income stream to support the rural tree farm workers during the early life of the tree and once it become old and un-productive, it can be sold as wood pellets to the mine-mouth coal-fired power plant. Once the coal reserves are depleted or uneconomical to extract, the power plant becomes a renewable biomass wood chips and pellet power plant.

I am available for new endeavors this coming August 1, 2017.

I am hoping you would find time to communicate with me and discuss my ideas further.

Yours truly,

Marcial T. Ocampo

+63-9156067949 (GLOBE mobile)

+63-2-9313713 (PLDT home landline)

mars_ocampo@yahoo.com (email)

energydataexpert@gmail.com (email)

 

Marcial Ocampo and his Major Achievements in Life and Career Advancement

June 21st, 2017 No Comments   Posted in energy expert

Marcial Ocampo and his Major Achievements in Life and Career Advancement

Marcial obtained his elementary education and graduated as the Grade 6 Valedictorian and continued his high school education at San Sebastian College in Manila and finished Year 4 Salutatorian.

Marcial studied at the University of the Philippines in Diliman Quezon City, Philippines and finished his B.S. and M.S. Chemical Engineering degrees and worked part-time as personal driver of a college professor and College of Engineering Instructor. He also took the Chemical Engineering Licensure Exam in August 1973 and passed as 2nd Placer with an 87.75% rating. He became a British Council scholar at the University of Leeds, United Kingdom, where he finished his M.S. Combustion & Energy and thesis in just one year. More »

Special Offer to First 100 Purchasers of Advanced (Regulator) Project Finance Models – Renewable, Conventional, Fossil, Nuclear and Waste Heat Recovery Technologies

June 9th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Special Offer to First 100 Purchasers of Advanced (Regulator) Project Finance Models – Renewable, Conventional, Fossil, Nuclear and Waste Heat Recovery Technologies

The following models may be downloaded for only USD400 for the first 100 clients this June 1 – July 31, 2017.

The models for renewable, conventional, fossil, nuclear, energy storage, and combined heat and power (CHP) project finance models are based on a single template so that you can prioritize which power generation technology to apply in a given application for more detailed design and economic study.

The models below are in Philippine Pesos (PHP) and may be converted to any foreign currency by inputting the appropriate exchange rate (e.g. 1 USD = 1.0000 USD; 1 USD = 50.000 PHP, 1 USD = 3.800 MYR, etc.). Then do a global replacement in all worksheets of ‘PHP’ with ‘XXX’, where ‘XXX’ is the foreign currency of the model.

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A short biography of the Energy Technology Selection Expert & Project Finance Modeling Expert

June 4th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in energy expert

A short biography of the Energy Technology Selection Expert & Project Finance Modeling Expert

Engineer Marcial Ocampo has humble beginnings as an adopted 3-year old boy of a young aunt Tining Ramos married to a young Doctor Potenciano Tawatao educated in America and having just one girl teen daughter as the older sister died during the height of WW2.

Marcial is the 2nd son of WW2 veteran Jose Ocampo and Pacita Lopez Tawatao (a war orphan and adopted by the young aunt). We were 9 children in all (5 boys and 4 girls).

This young family of 4 went to Musuan, Bukidnon in the island of Mindanao to join the faculty of Musuan Agricultural College (now Central Mindanao University). Marcial obtained his elementary education and graduated as the Grade 6 Valedictorian. When the only daughter transferred to Manila to study Medicine at UST in Manila, the young Marcial and his adoptive mama followed also and continued his high school education at San Sebastian College in Manila and finished Year 4 Salutatorian.

Marcial went on to study at the premiere University of the Philippines in Diliman Quezon City and finished his B.S. and M.S. Chemical Engineering degrees and worked part-time as personal driver of a college professor and College of Engineering Instructor. He also took the Chemical Engineering Licensure Exam in August 1973 and passed as 2nd Placer with an 87.75% rating. He became a British Council scholar at the University of Leeds, UK, where he finished his M.S. Combustion & Energy and thesis in just one year.

In 1979, Marcial married Veronilyn Palacio, daughter of Engineer and Bureau of Mines Mindanao Regional Director Demetrio Palacio and Veronica Pecaoco. The fruit of their love are 4 boys and 1 girl (Mark, Eric, Patrick, Francis and Catherine) and have now 3 granddaughters (Riona, Chissa and Briana). The couple also have provided education to 4 relatives (Gilbert, Justine, Kim and Julius). The couple are also active members of the Couples for Christ and has served as household member, Unit Head, Kids for Christ coordinator, and presently a household member.

After a number of starting jobs, Marcial joined the Department of Energy as a PNOC-PETRON-hire seconded as Section Chief of the Transport, Buildings & Machinery Section under the Conservation Division of DOE and conducted various energy audits of major industries throughout the country. Later on, when the DOE was abolished and replaced by the Ministry of Energy (MOE), Marcial transferred to the Petron Bataan Refinery (PBR) as Computer Systems Group head and Linear Programming (LP) model custodian. He retired from PETRON and then went on to work for PETRONAS Energy Philippines Inc. (PEPI) as EDP & Budget Manager and Executive Director of 50+ staff PCIERD-DOST.

Marcial later joined First Gen Corporation as Senior Technical Services Manager where he was introduced to power plant modeling and simulation, and later, into project finance modeling to determine the feasibility of power plant projects and alternatives, and to value the privatization price of an asset of NPC for bidding to interested buyers.

Armed with his accumulated expertise and knowledge of world energy resources, reserves, extraction rate, years to deplete, power generation technologies and its description, theory, history, capital and operating costs, availability and reliability, construction period, economic life, efficiency or plant heat rate, cost of fuel and its heating value, environmental impacts, benefits and risks, and commerciality, Marcial then prepared a compendium of all power generation technologies (renewable, conventional, fossil, nuclear, energy storage) in power point presentation format and developed a template project finance model to calculate the first year tariff (or feed-in-tariff in the case of renewable energy), equity and project returns (IRR, NPV, PAYBACK), debt service cover ratio (DSCR), benefit-to-cost ratio (B/C), and other financial ratios to assess financial risks of the project during the planning stage of the project cycle. In addition to this deterministic (fixed) template, he prepared a version with stochastic (probabilistic) analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS).

The MCS model varied by +/- 10% the independent inputs in a random manner such as electricity tariff, availability factor, fuel heating value, debt ratio, plant capacity, all-in (overnight) capital cost, variable O&M cost, fixed O&M cost, cost of fuel, efficiency or plant heat rate and exchange rate. The MCS dependent output consists of a probabilistic distribution curve of equity and project returns (IRR, NPV, PAYBACK), net profit after tax, pre-tax WACC and electricity tariff (or feed-in-tariff for renewable energy). The shape of the distribution curve and relative position of the average value of the dependent variable is indicative of project risk.

He also prepared a manual on “How to Design a Mini-hydro Power Plant” and developed a model to “Optimize Penstock Diameter given its Thickness, Strength, Diameter, Capital and Operating Costs, Cost of Electricity and Friction Loses”.

Marcial is civic mined and patriotic, and helped the government thru the DOE in the “Crude Oil Price Hike to USD100 per barrel Impact Study in 2008” and the “Oil Price Review Study of 2012” where he developed the Oil Pump Price Calculation Excel Model to predict changes to pump price or absolute pump price given changes in FOB or MOPS import cost, ocean freight and insurance costs, exchange rate, gov’t excise taxes and port charges, brokerage and arrastre charges, VAT on importation activities, oil company margin, pumping and transshipment costs, hauling costs, dealer margin, and VAT on local activities. The pump price model can be downloaded from the DOE Website.

He also assisted a foreign consultant prepare a historical analysis of the short-run marginal cost (SRMC = variable O&M cost + fuel cost) and long-run marginal cost (LRMC = annualized capital cost + fixed O&M cost + regulatory cost + SRMC) for all power plants in the country in order to assist a client prepare his competitive bid offers in the Wholesale Electric Spot Market (WESM) as well as prepare their capacity expansion plans.

He also assisted the Philippine Congressional Committee on Dam Safety in improving the Dam Water Release Protocol by providing Dam Water Release Simulation Model to predict dam height (meters) and volumetric release rate (cubic meters per second) every hour of the simulation given the initial dam height and volume, power generation and water discharge, dam strapping table (volume vs. height), rainfall data (mm per hour) and area of the dam watershed and upstream drainage area with rainfall data or equivalent upstream dam release rate. This model answered the question: “How many hours and rate of pre-emptive discharge is necessary to increase a dam’s storage capacity in order to have sufficient space to absorb an incoming storm and thus avoid a catastrophic dam spill that will inundate downstream low land areas”.  The model accurately predicted the volumetric release rate at the height of the storm when the dam spilling level was breached. It also recommended how many days and rate of pre-emptive discharge is needed to avoid the dam spill during the height of Typhoon “Ondoy” and “Peping” that inundated the provinces of Pangasinan and Tarlac resulting in PhP 40 billion of damage and lost properties and lives.

He also assisted the economic team that studied the proposed excise tax increase in gasoline, diesel, kerosene, LPG, fuel oil, lubes & greases, and other petroleum products such as waxes & petrolatums to predict the price disturbance to be inputted into the input-output matrix of the Philippine economy to predict impact on GDP, inflation and employment.

Marcial continued to develop his overall skills in energy & power and became an International Consultant at UNDP and travelled to Jakarta, Beijing, Shanghai, New Delhi and Chennai working on wind diesel hybrid, 3rd generation fuel cell bus, biomass energy and India tea manufacturing.

Later, Marcial applied his energy & power expertise to join Sinclair Knight Mertz (SKM) as Senior Power Generation Engineer as part of the On-shore LNG Refrigerated Terminal and Re-gassing Facility project team at Limay, Bataan, a proposed project of Atlantic Gulf & Pacific Company (AG&P).

Marcial then joined the SMC GLOBAL POWER HOLDINGS CORPORATION as Energy & Power Consultant and finished a number of feasibility studies for an industrial park, coal-fired power plant using clean coal technology (CFB) and a coal mine project where he converted the coal-mine production plan into a project finance model to determine the cost of delivered coal to another SMC power plant in Mindanao. He provided in-house financial modeling expertise on solar PV, wind, mini-hydro, large hydro, natural gas-fired CCGT and coal-fired clean coal technology (CFB).

Marcial’s lifetime dream and advocacy is to help the country reduce its energy & power costs and consumption by optimizing the capacity and generation mix, reduce oil and energy imports by promoting indigenous resources, reduce the environmental impact footprint of power plants, and promote inclusive economic growth especially for the marginalized communities hosting the power plants and sources of fuels or energy.

Among the measures he proposes are as follows:

1) Use of advanced mixed integer linear programming (MILP) optimization software to process existing power plant data on capacity, efficiency or heat rate, availability and reliability, capital & operating costs, fuel costs & heating value, ramp-up and ramp-down rates and environmental emissions to optimize short-term and long-term capacity and generation mix, in order to achieve cheapest short-run generation cost (SRMC) and least cost long-run capacity expansion (LRMC).

2) Improve the quality of power generation (reliability, availability, frequency, load-following, backup reserves) in the country by having an optimal mix that balances the need for intermittent renewable energy for sustainable growth that also requires high-speed fossil generation to backup such intermittent technologies such as when the sun and wind becomes unavailable momentarily and stabilize the electrical network.

3) Make use of all municipal solid wastes (MSW), liquid and gaseous wastes (bio-gas and land-fill gas) to provide distributed power generation and process heat throughout the country in order to address waste collection, treatment, storage, sanitation and disposal problems.

4) Make use of all indigenous energy and fuel resources in the country in order to conserve precious foreign exchange (to purchase petroleum fuels, coal), utilize local coal and natural gas reserves, use carbon-neutral biomass from trees and shrubs to provide fuel pellets to co-fire boilers using oil and coal and thus initiate a gradual shift from fossil to renewable biomass power generation. I believe that anti-coal environmental advocates should take a second and favorable look into indigenous coal since later on, as the world runs out of fossil fuel, the country needs them for power and fuel security. Coal is a transition fuel as the world converts from oil products to renewable energy and delays the depletion of crude oil. It would be a crime in the future to burn oil products as fuel since scarce oil is more needed for lubrication of industrial and transport machineries and manufacture of pharmaceuticals and other chemicals.

5) Make use of available renewable energy such as biomass, waste-to-energy, solar PV, solar CSP, wind, mini-hydro and ocean energy provided by waves, thermal gradients, ocean currents and tidal flows due to the gravitational effects of the moon and sun on the earth’s surface that give rise to ocean currents or tidal currents in the vast oceans of the world. Estimates of 1.0 – 2.5 meters per second of ocean and tidal currents are found in the coastal vicinities of Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and Philippines. Ocean currents are predictable and nearly constant as against intermittent solar and wind.

6) To utilize off-peak renewable energy to store energy in elevated dams or barriers, for future release using water turbines when peak energy and power is required. Energy may be stored as potential energy or as chemical energy in the form of Hydrogen gas from electrolysis of water using off-peak electricity and extracted in thermal plants or in fuel cells.

7) Let us integrate renewable energy in the design of our civil and transport infrastructures like putting solar PV and small-scale wind turbines in long-span bridges and dams, or putting ocean and tidal current water turbines under bridges or barrages that connects islands between straits, or when lakes or large marsh lands are surrounded with elevated highways that serves as flood control structures and provided with low-head water turbines to capture the energy of the released flood waters, just like in conventional large impoundment dams. This is one way of reducing the cost of the renewable energy by integrating them in the design and construction of public infrastructures. Building Integrated Photo Voltaic (BIPV) solar panels and rooftop-mounted solar heaters are now used in commercial buildings like malls, hotels and residential buildings to provide electricity and hot water.

8) Lastly, to reduce power costs drastically, adopt mine-mouth clean coal power generation technology (e.g. CFB). By using the low-BTU lignite coal reserves spread throughout the Philippine archipelago, which is economical only to use in mine-mouth configuration due to its low BTU, high moisture, high ash content, but low in sulfur and the mine adjacent to nearby limestone deposits, we can bring down further the electricity cost from base-load coal-fired power plants as it saves on the cost of logistics – hauling coal and barging or shipping costs – which are significant cost items. By integrating mine-mouth coal power plant with co-firing with biomass wood pellets coming from mature rubber trees and other fast-growing trees, the country can provide cheaper power without harming the environment and provide local job opportunities to coal miners and workers of tree plantations near the mine-mouth coal power plant. Planting rubber trees provide an immediate income stream to support the rural tree farm workers during the early life of the tree and once it become old and un-productive, it can be sold as wood pellets to the mine-mouth coal-fired power plant. Once the coal reserves are depleted or uneconomical to extract, the power plant becomes a renewable biomass wood chips and pellet power plant.

It you feel that my ideas are worth pursuing, I am available for new endeavors this coming August 1, 2017.

I am hoping you would find time to communicate with me and discuss my ideas further.

Yours truly,

Marcial Ocampo

+63-9156067949 (GLOBE mobile)

+63-2-9313713 (PLDT home landline)

mars_ocampo@yahoo.com (email)

energydataexpert@gmail.com (email)

 

Advanced Starter Model Kit for Beginners Now Available at Low Price

June 3rd, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Advanced Starter Model Kit for Beginners Now Available at Low Price (USD 300 – 3 models)

Yes, all beginners wanting to know how to do project finance modeling can now avail of this low price promo discount of only USD 300:

To sweeten the deal, you may select 3 types of power generation:

one renewable (biomass, solar, wind, mini-hydro, ocean energy) – USD 100

one conventional or fossil (large hydro, geothermal, coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear) – USD 100

one power generation with waste heat recovery (gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, natural gas, propane, LPG) – USD 100

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