How to run the Advanced Project Finance Models from OMT (Renewable Energy and Non-RE)

June 24th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in project finance models

How to run the Advanced Project Finance Models from OMT (Renewable Energy and Non-RE)

Your energy and power expert and consultant on project development and project finance modeling has prepared a short guide for running the demo versions that are available by clicking on the links in some of the articles in this blog and profile.

Steps to run the model for RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS: More »

Congrats Cavs and all its supporters. Hard work and focus paid off, over-turned the law of averages

June 18th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in Law of Averages

Congrats Cavs and all its supporters. Hard work and focus paid off, over-turned the law of averages

The Law of Averages – the Golden State Warriors will defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers

The law of averages will finally catch game 7. With the Cavs playing superbly above their average and the Warriors playing badly below their average, the law of average will swing back to the neutral position – the Cavs will play badly below their average and the Warriors will play above their average to win game 7. That is why it is called the law of average. You have to hit highs and lows to arrive at the average.

Bet on the Warriors.

 

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) – Solar Thermal Power Generation Technology Model

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) – Solar Thermal Power Generation Technology Model

Your energy technology selection expert has developed a CSP Project Finance Model for use by CSP project developers.

It can help you prepare the feasibility study and design or optimize the various options to give you the lowest Levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

Given inputs on installed unit capacity, number of units, capacity factor, all-in capital cost $/kW, fixed O&M cost $/kW/year and variable O&M cost $/MWh, you can calibrate the model to meet your annual generation and determine first year tariff, short-run marginal running cost SRMC and long-run marginal running cost LRMC (also known as LCOE). More »

How the new President Duterte of the Philippines and its new DOE Secretary Cusi can reduce Philippine Electricity Cost – the most expensive power in Asia

May 23rd, 2016 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

How to reduce Philippine Electricity Cost – the most expensive power in Asia – to improve its competitiveness

On various occasions and public debates, there is a unified concern to lower Philippine electricity cost in order to improve the country’s competitiveness in order to attain inclusive economic growth.

However, reducing power costs, such as putting up more cheaper power plants like coal-fired power plants instead of expensive petroleum-based power plants and intermittent renewable energy power technologies have to be balanced with the need to reduce greenhouse gas (CO2), sulfur (SO2), NOX and particulate emission to mitigate climate change and air pollution. More »

Why Golden State and Cleveland will meet again in the NBA Finals – the secret

May 7th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in Basketball

Why Golden State and Cleveland will meet again in the NBA Finals – the secret

At last King James and the Cavaliers now know the secret of winning – the Golden State strategy – shoot 3s every 12 seconds and with 25% accuracy, will potentially get 3 x (24/12) x 25% x (60/24) = 3 x 2 x 25% x 2 = 3 points/minute. This means 3 x 12 = 36 points/quarter, or 36 x 4 = 144 points per game of 4 quarters.

Contrast this with old school of 2 points ever 24 seconds with 50% accuracy, will potentially get 2 x (24/24) x 50% x (60/24) = 2 x 1 x 50% x 2 = 2 points/minute or 2 x 12 = 24 points/quarter, or 24 x 4 = 96 points per game of 4 quarters.

Thus, a rapid firing team of 3 pointers with half the accuracy of an inside game team of 2 pointers will always win.

Hooray to Golden State’s Stephen Curry for this wonderful theory of winning basketball.

Long shot means long rebound and with spread out offense, greater chance of recovering a missed shot, over a short jumper or layup with short rebound going to defending team.

A low-post team will find it difficult to win over an outside-shooting team, even with lower accuracy as long as they keep attempting more shots than the low-post team with higher accuracy and scoring 3 points over 2 points.

Learn more about probability from Monte Carlo Simulation techniques applied in supply/demand/gap forecasting and project finance modeling to prioritize risks and how to mitigate the risks.

Cheers,

Marcial – the energy technology selection expert.

Coal Thermal and Clean-Coal Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Coal Thermal and Clean-Coal Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for the geothermal power generation technology using energy stored on the earth’s crust. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Solid fossil fuel such as coal (lignite, sub-bituminous, bituminous, etc.) are available in large quantities in many places around the world and will provide a cheap source of fuel to generated power in base-load coal-fired power plants using circulating fluidized bed (CFB) and the newer pulverized coal (PC) technologies such as super-critical and ultra-super-critical technologies.

More »

Nuclear Energy Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Nuclear Energy Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for a nuclear power generation technology. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Nuclear Energy stored on the earth’s crust during its creation, and its extraction and concentration using various methods such as chemical extraction and centrifuging has provided a great transition fuel for mankind as the world bids time to shift form fossil fuels that have limited life times (e.g. oil to be exhausted in 60 years, natural gas also in the same life time as oil, and coal to be consumed in 250 years) to unlimited renewable energy from the sun (solar PV, solar thermal, hydro, pumped storage, wind, ocean thermal, wave energy). The use of nuclear power has provided many countries with a cheap source of energy and power, though a number of safety issues and actual nuclear mishaps has occurred, notable of which is the Chernobyl in USSR and Fukushima in Japan.

More »

Combined Cycle and Simple (Open) Cycle Gas Turbine Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Combined Cycle and Simple (Open) Cycle Gas Turbine Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for the various natural gas-fired power generation technologies. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Natural gas is a clean fuel that may be used in simple cycle (open cycle or Brayton cycle) gas turbines such as those used in jet engines, or when the waste heat is recovered in a heat recovery boiler (Rankin cycle). This two cycles (Brayton and Rankin) combine to raise the overall thermal efficiency from 33% to over 54%.

More »

Geothermal Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Geothermal Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for the geothermal power generation technology using energy stored on the earth’s crust. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Energy stored on the earth’s crust during its creation, and its continued regeneration from nuclear reactions inside the earth to heat water that percolates into the earth’s crust is a continuing source of saturated and superheated steam which can be used to drive steam turbines in single and double flash steam cycles (but releasing the spent geothermal steam to the atmosphere), or using a binary fluid to capture the heat from geothermal fluids without the attendant problem of treating the spent geothermal fluid other than re-injecting it back to mother earth in an end-less cycle.

More »

Steam Cycle and Rankin Cycle Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Steam Cycle and Rankin Cycle Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for the steam cycle and Rankin cycle power generation technology using a variable of energy sources and fossil fuels such as  oil thermal (bunker oil) and gas thermal (natural gas). Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Among the oldest and most versatile power generation technology is based on the steam cycle, also called the Rankin cycle, which consists of a heating source to convert a liquid such as water into saturated steam or superheated steam to drive a steam turbine, and recover the spent steam in the condenser to be pre-heated in a steam drum and then converted to steam in a boiler and superheated further in the super heater of the Rankin cycle.

More »

Reciprocating (Piston) Engine Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

Reciprocating (Piston) Engine Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for reciprocating (piston) engine power generation technology. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Reciprocating diesel engine (using diesel oil and bunker fuel oil) is based on the compression ignition (CI) thermodynamic cycle while the reciprocating gasoline engine (using gasoline, petrol and natural gas) is based on the spark ignition (SI) thermodynamic cycle.

More »

Hydro Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in hydro power

Hydro Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for hydro electric power. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

More »

Solar Photo Voltaic (PV) Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in solar PV power

Solar Photo Voltaic (PV) Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed solar PV energy. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Solar Photo Voltaic (PV) farms are the present darling in the RE industry. It is the fastest RE technology that can be built in the shortest possible time, and with declining cost of producing and maintaining solar PV panels, a large number of project developers have ventured into solar.

More »

Wind Energy Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in wind energy and power

Wind Energy Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for on-shore and off-shore wind energy farm (non-thermal renewable energy). Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

More »

Biomass Energy Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 15th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in project finance modeling

Biomass Energy Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for biomass energy (cogeneration, direct combustion, gasification, IGCC, WTE) and all other fossil and thermal power plants (burns fossil fuel). Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

More »

Financial Ratios in Project Finance Model Ver. 3.0

April 6th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in financial ratios

Financial Ratios in Project Finance Model Ver. 3.0

Financial ratios are mathematical comparisons of financial statement (P&L or Income & Expense, Cash Flow, and Balance Sheet Statements) accounts or categories.

These relationships between income, expense, cash flow and balance sheet accounts help investors, creditors, and internal company management understand how well a business is performing and areas of needing improvement.

Financial ratios are the most common tools used in analyzing a business’ financial standing. Ratios are easy to understand and simple to compute.

They can also be used to compare different companies in different industries. Since a ratio is simply a mathematically comparison based on proportions, big and small companies can be use ratios to compare their financial information. More »

Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) in Supply & Demand Forecasting and Financial & Process Modeling

April 6th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) in Supply & Demand Forecasting and Financial & Process Modeling

The conventional or usual approach to forecasting supply & demand of power, energy and goods and services is to use deterministic modeling technique which uses fixed or static data – quantity, price and growth rate.

The same is true with financial & process modeling – fixed or static data is used in estimating plant output (production rate, output, power to GDP elasticity ratio), revenues (growth rate, price escalation), capital and operating costs, financing costs (equity returns, debt interest, commitment fees, front-end fees) and capital structure (% equity, % debt).

However, at best, static data used in deterministic models, provides only static results for equity returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK), project returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK), net present value of income after tax, discounting rate pre-tax WACC, and the unit tariff (selling price, electricity price, energy price).

Thus, static inputs and outputs from deterministic models provide very little insight into the risk profile of a given project being analyzed for possible investment decisions – go or no go. More »


Project Finance Model Template for a Biomass Thermal Power Plant – the Financial Worksheet

April 5th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in Air Safety, power generation

Project Finance Model Template for a Biomass Thermal Power Plant – the Financial Worksheet

Your energy technology selection and project finance modeling expert has just developed a powerful and understandable template for the construction of a project finance model based on an existing ERC (Energy Regulatory Commission) project finance model for renewable energy power projects (e.g. biomass thermal, solar PV, wind, mini-hydro, ocean thermal energy conversion), which was also modified for non-RE power generation technologies such as coal thermal, oil genset, oil thermal, gas thermal, gas combined cycle gas turbine or CCGT, open cycle gas  turbine or OCGT, large hydro, petcoke thermal, combined heat and power (CHP) diesel engine genset (diesel, bunker), gasoline engine genset and OCGT (propane, natural gas), and nuclear power. More »

Wind Energy Financial Model with Stochastic (Probabilistic) Wind Turbine Simulator for Annual Power Output and Capacity Factor

March 29th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in wind energy and power

Wind Energy Financial Model with Stochastic (Probabilistic) Wind Turbine Simulator for Annual Power Output and Capacity Factor

Wind Turbine Generator (WTG) is the current darling of the renewable energy power generation industry.

It is clean, generally available, and cost-effective. It’s power output, however, is very variable, ever changing by the hour with time.

Now with the instantaneous wind speed as a function of the average speed +/- the positive and negative deviation multiplied by a random fraction, the probable wind speed and thus the power output can be simulated, and when aggregated in 24 x 365 hours in a year, the annual energy output and annual capacity factor is determined.

And using statistical analysis, the expected value (mean), standard error, median, standard deviation, variance, skewness and Kurtosis are calculated for both the annual energy output and annual capacity factor. More »

Integrated Wind Prospecting, Wind Resource Assessment, Annual Power Generation and Capacity Factor, and Wind Project Finance Model with Monte Carlo Simulation

March 29th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in wind energy and power

Integrated Wind Prospecting, Wind Resource Assessment, Annual Power Generation and Capacity Factor, and Wind Project Finance Model with Monte Carlo Simulation

Yes, your energy technology expert has done it again.

Version 3 has been released that integrates all the steps needed in fully developing your wind energy project.

It combines the data entry of the wind velocity profile of the prospective wind farm site (from wind mast anemometer monitoring or from 3-TIER, NREL wind profile database), interpolation of daily and hourly wind speed (up to 15-minute pulse if needed by the TRANSCO / GRID operator), look-up tables for the various wind turbine generator manufacturers, calculation of annual power generation and capacity factor, overnight capital cost of wind turbine and its fixed and variable O&M costs, and project finance modeling (with option for both deterministic and stochastic modeling using Monte Carlo Simulation). More »

 Page 1 of 17  1  2  3  4  5 » ...  Last »