How the new President Duterte of the Philippines and its new DOE Secretary Cusi can reduce Philippine Electricity Cost – the most expensive power in Asia

May 23rd, 2016 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

How to reduce Philippine Electricity Cost – the most expensive power in Asia – to improve its competitiveness

On various occasions and public debates, there is a unified concern to lower Philippine electricity cost in order to improve the country’s competitiveness in order to attain inclusive economic growth.

However, reducing power costs, such as putting up more cheaper power plants like coal-fired power plants instead of expensive petroleum-based power plants and intermittent renewable energy power technologies have to be balanced with the need to reduce greenhouse gas (CO2), sulfur (SO2), NOX and particulate emission to mitigate climate change and air pollution. More »

Why Golden State and Cleveland will meet again in the NBA Finals – the secret

May 7th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in Basketball

Why Golden State and Cleveland will meet again in the NBA Finals – the secret

At last King James and the Cavaliers now know the secret of winning – the Golden State strategy – shoot 3s every 12 seconds and with 25% accuracy, will potentially get 3 x (24/12) x 25% x (60/24) = 3 x 2 x 25% x 2 = 3 points/minute. This means 3 x 12 = 36 points/quarter, or 36 x 4 = 144 points per game of 4 quarters.

Contrast this with old school of 2 points ever 24 seconds with 50% accuracy, will potentially get 2 x (24/24) x 50% x (60/24) = 2 x 1 x 50% x 2 = 2 points/minute or 2 x 12 = 24 points/quarter, or 24 x 4 = 96 points per game of 4 quarters.

Thus, a rapid firing team of 3 pointers with half the accuracy of an inside game team of 2 pointers will always win.

Hooray to Golden State’s Stephen Curry for this wonderful theory of winning basketball.

Long shot means long rebound and with spread out offense, greater chance of recovering a missed shot, over a short jumper or layup with short rebound going to defending team.

A low-post team will find it difficult to win over an outside-shooting team, even with lower accuracy as long as they keep attempting more shots than the low-post team with higher accuracy and scoring 3 points over 2 points.

Learn more about probability from Monte Carlo Simulation techniques applied in supply/demand/gap forecasting and project finance modeling to prioritize risks and how to mitigate the risks.

Cheers,

Marcial – the energy technology selection expert.