Why Golden State and Cleveland will meet again in the NBA Finals – the secret

May 7th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in Basketball

Why Golden State and Cleveland will meet again in the NBA Finals – the secret

At last King James and the Cavaliers now know the secret of winning – the Golden State strategy – shoot 3s every 12 seconds and with 25% accuracy, will potentially get 3 x (24/12) x 25% x (60/24) = 3 x 2 x 25% x 2 = 3 points/minute. This means 3 x 12 = 36 points/quarter, or 36 x 4 = 144 points per game of 4 quarters.

Contrast this with old school of 2 points ever 24 seconds with 50% accuracy, will potentially get 2 x (24/24) x 50% x (60/24) = 2 x 1 x 50% x 2 = 2 points/minute or 2 x 12 = 24 points/quarter, or 24 x 4 = 96 points per game of 4 quarters.

Thus, a rapid firing team of 3 pointers with half the accuracy of an inside game team of 2 pointers will always win.

Hooray to Golden State’s Stephen Curry for this wonderful theory of winning basketball.

Long shot means long rebound and with spread out offense, greater chance of recovering a missed shot, over a short jumper or layup with short rebound going to defending team.

A low-post team will find it difficult to win over an outside-shooting team, even with lower accuracy as long as they keep attempting more shots than the low-post team with higher accuracy and scoring 3 points over 2 points.

Learn more about probability from Monte Carlo Simulation techniques applied in supply/demand/gap forecasting and project finance modeling to prioritize risks and how to mitigate the risks.

Cheers,

Marcial – the energy technology selection expert.