Complete List of Project Finance Models with Tornado Chart (for Sensitivity Analysis)

February 4th, 2018 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Complete List of Project Finance Models with Tornado Chart (for Sensitivity Analysis)

NOTE:

To download this article to view the charts and tables, please click the link below:

Complete List of Project Finance Models with Tornado Chart (Sensitivity Analysis)

The latest project finance modeling tools from you Energy Technology Selection and Project Finance Modeling Expert now includes Sensitivity Analysis using the Tornado Chart (also known as Spider Chart), as shown below:

The above Tornado Chart (graph) was prepared from the data computed by the Tornado Project Finance Model:

Plant Variable (50 MW) Change in IRR per 20% change % Change 16.44%
-10% 0 10% Base value
Electricity Tariff 9.65% 11.80% 16.44% 21.45% 7.364
Plant Availability Factor 7.55% 12.76% 16.44% 20.31% 97.08%
Fuel Heating Value 2.15% 15.27% 16.44% 17.42% 5,198
Debt Ratio 0.72% 16.17% 16.44% 16.89% 70%
Plant Capacity per Unit 1.00% 15.89% 16.44% 16.89% 50.00
O&M Cost (Opex) – variable O&M -0.25% 16.57% 16.44% 16.32% 27.27
O&M Cost (Opex) – fixed O&M -0.94% 16.91% 16.44% 15.97% 5,132.70
O&M Cost (Opex) – fixed G&A 0.00% 16.44% 16.44% 16.44% 10.00
Cost of Fuel -2.13% 17.52% 16.44% 15.39% 1.299
Plant Heat Rate -2.13% 17.52% 16.44% 15.39% 12,186
Exchange Rate -3.64% 18.46% 16.44% 14.82% 50.00
Capital Cost (Capex) -6.40% 20.02% 16.44% 13.62% 1,964.36

 

As shown in the table above, the biomass cogeneration technology is most positively sensitive for electricity tariff at 9.65% change per 20% change in value (from -10% to +10%) when the inputs are changed one at a time as follows. The equity IRR changes from 11.80% to 21.45% when the base case electricity tariff of 7.364 PHP/kWh is changed by -10% to +10%.

The top 4 positively sensitive variables are electricity tariff (9.65%), plant availability factor (7.55%), fuel heating value (2.15%), and plant capacity (1.00%) when such variable is changed from -10% to +10%.

On the other hand, the capital cost is the most negatively sensitive independent variable at -6.40% for a 20% change from the base capital cost (FOB value from OEM) of 1,964.36 USD/kW as it is changed from -10% to +10%.

The top 4 negatively sensitive variables are capital cost (-6.40%), exchange rate (-3.64%), plant heat rate (-2.13%) which is the inverse of plant thermal efficiency, and cost of fuel (-2.13%) when such variable is changed from -10% to +10%.

Plant Variable (50 MW) Spider Chart (press ctrl + p) (0)
-10% 0% 10% Used Current Value
Electricity Tariff 0.9 1 1.1 1 7.364
Plant Availability Factor 0.9 1 1.1 1 97.08%
Fuel Heating Value 0.9 1 1.1 1 5,198
Debt Ratio 0.9 1 1.1 1 70%
Plant Capacity per Unit 0.9 1 1.1 1 50
O&M Cost (Opex) – variable O&M 0.9 1 1.1 1 27.27
O&M Cost (Opex) – fixed O&M 0.9 1 1.1 1 5,132.70
O&M Cost (Opex) – fixed G&A 0.9 1 1.1 1 10.00
Cost of Fuel 0.9 1 1.1 1 1.299
Plant Heat Rate 0.9 1 1.1 1 12,186
Exchange Rate 0.9 1 1.1 1 50.00
Capital Cost (Capex) 0.9 1 1.1 1 1,964.36

 

SUMMARY OF INPUTS:

Installed capacity:

Unit capacity, MW/unit = 50.00

No. of units = 1

Total installed capacity = 50.00 x 1 = 50.00 MW

Net capacity factor (NCF):

Availability, % of time or days down = 97.08% or 11 days off-line

Load Factor, % of gross capacity = 95.00%

Own Use, % of gross capacity = 10.00%

Net capacity factor target, % = 97.08% x 95.00% x (1 – 10.00%) = 83.00%

Gross generation = 50.00 x (24 x 365) x (97.08% x 95.00%) = 403,933 MWh/year

Net Generation = 50.00 x (24 x 365) x 83.00% = 363,540 MWh/year

All-in Capital and Operating & Maintenance (O&M) costs:

All-in capital cost target, USD/kW = 4,114 (or absolute USD = 4,114 x 50.00 x 1,000)

Fixed O&M cost target, USD/kW/year = 105.63

Variable O&M cost target, USD/MWh = 5.26

G&A cost target, ‘000 USD/year = 10.00

Balance Sheet accounts:

Salvage value = 5% of original value

Days receivable, days = 30

Days payable, days = 30

Days inventory (fuel, lubes, supplies) = 60

Depreciation period (straight line), years = 20

Refurbishment cost (% of EPC as overhaul cost) = 10%

Timing of Refurbishment (year from COD) = 10

Local Component (LC) and Foreign Components (FC):

Target local cost (LC), % of all-in capital cost = 59.2%

Target foreign cost (FC), % of all-in capital cost = 1 – 59.2% = 40.8%

Note: local CAPEX to be funded by local debt

foreign CAPEX to be funded by foreign debt

Local and Foreign Debt:

Local and foreign debt upfront legal & financing fees = 2.00%

Local and foreign commitment fees = 0.50 p.a.

Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD, months = 6

Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (DSR), months = 6

Local Debt All-in Interest Rate excluding tax =10.00% p.a.

Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP), years = 10

Foreign Debt All-in Interest Rate excluding tax =10.00% p.a.

Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP), years = 10

Capital structure and target IRR:

Debt ratio target, % of total capital = 70%

Equity ratio target, % of total capital = 1 – 70% = 30%

Target IRR = 16.44% p.a.

Tax Regime:

Income tax holiday (ITH) = 7 years (pay income tax on 8th year)

Income tax rate (after ITH) = 10% of taxable income

Property tax rate (from COD) = 1.5%

Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) = 80%

Local business tax (% of revenue) = 1.0%

Government share for RE (from COD) = 1.0% of revenues – cost of goods sold

ER 1-94 contribution, PHP/kWh sold = 0.01 (to DOE)

Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT = 10%

Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT = 5%

Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) = 0.5% (not used)

PEZA incentives (income tax rate from COD) = 5% (if used)

Royalty = 1.5% (if used in mini-hydro)

VAT on importation = 12%

VAT recovery rate = 70%

Timing of VAT recovery (years after COD) = 5

Customs duty = 0%

Flags (Switches):

Biomass Fuel switch (1 = yes, 0 = no) = 1

Type of incentives (1 = NO, 2 = BOI, 3 = PEZA) = 2

Value added tax (0 = NO, 1 VAT) = 0 for renewable energy (RE)

Timing:

Construction period (from FC), months = 24

Operating period (from COD) = 20 years (maximum 30)

Years from base year CPI for CAPEX estimates = 1 (usually zero)

Years from base year CPI for OPEX estimates = 1 (usually zero)

Exchange Rate and Inflation:

Base foreign exchange rate, PHP/USD = 50.00

Forward foreign exchange rate, PHP/USD = 50.00

OPEX inflation (CPI): to model real vs. nominal analysis

Local inflation (CPI) = 0.0% p.a. (real analysis)

Foreign inflation (CPI) = 0.0% p.a. (real analysis)

CAPEX inflation (CPI): to model construction delay

Local inflation (CPI) = 4.0% p.a. (escalation of local CAPEX)

Foreign inflation (CPI) = 2.0% p.a. (escalation of foreign CAPEX)

Power plant footprint:

Plant footprint, hectares = 50.00

Price of land (purchased), PHP/m2 = 28.65 (land is purchased)

Land area (lease), m2 = 500,000

Land lease rate , PHP/m2/year = 0.00 (no land lease)

Fuel properties and cost:

Density of solid fuel, kg/MT = 1,000 (for solid biomass)

Density of liquid fuel, kg/L = 0.966 (for liquid fuel oil or bunker)

Cost of bagasse = 1,988 PHP/MT (at 2,275 kcal/kg) at 30% blend

Cost of rice hull = 1,000 PHP/MT (at 3,150 kcal/kg) at 70% blend

Average cost of solid fuel = 1,299 PHP/MT (biomass)

Average cost of liquid fuel = 34.84 PHP/L (fuel oil)

Average cost of gaseous fuel = 8.628 $/GJ (natural gas)

Average heating value of solid fuel, Btu/lb = 5,198 (biomass)

Average heating value of liquid fuel, Btu/lb = 19,500 (fuel oil)

Average heating value of gaseous fuel, Btu/lb = 22,129 (natural gas)

Power plant thermal efficiency or plant heat rate:

Plant heat rate (at 100% efficiency) = 3,600/1.05506 = 3,412 Btu/kWh

Plant heat rate (Btu of GHV per kWh gross) = 12,186

Target Thermal efficiency = 3,412/12,186 = 28.00%

=============================================

Your energy technology selection expert is pleased to announce that deterministic (fixed inputs) and stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) are now available for all power generation technologies (renewable energy such as biomass, solar PV and CSP, wind, mini-hydro, ocean thermal and ocean tidal/current, and conventional energy such as large hydro, geothermal, and fossil energy such as oil diesel and oil thermal, natural gas simple cycle and combined cycle, coal thermal and clean coal technologies, nuclear energy, and energy storage and waste heat recovery and combined heat and power technologies).

You may download the following samples to try the advanced features of using fixed inputs and random inputs in order to manage your project risks:

Deterministic (fixed inputs) model: (USD 700):

Tornado Chart (-10% to +10% sensitivity on inputs) model: (USD 500):

Stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) model (USD 1400):

Before you can run the MCS model, you need to download first the Monte Carlo Simulation add-in and run it before running the MCS model:

MonteCarlito_v1_10

Here is the complete list of deterministic and stochastic project finance models.

RENEWABLE ENERGY

1) process heat (steam) and power (cogeneration)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (spider)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo)

2) bagasse, rice husk or wood waste fired boiler steam turbine generator

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (spider)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo)

3) gasification (thermal conversion in high temperature without oxygen or air

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3 (spider)

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3_MCS (demo)

4) integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3 (spider)

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3_MCS (demo)

5) waste-to-energy (WTE) technology for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal and treatment

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 (spider)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3_MCS (demo)

6) waste-to-energy (WTE) pyrolysis technology

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis (spider)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis_MCS (demo)

7) run-of-river (mini-hydro) power plant

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA (demo)

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA (spider)

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA_MCS (demo)

8) concentrating solar power (CSP) 400 MW

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 (demo)

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 (spider)

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3_MCS (demo)

9) solar PV technology 1 MW Chinese (roof top BIPV)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3 (demo)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3 (spider)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3_MCS (demo)

10) solar PV technology 25 MW European and Non-Chinese (Korean, Japanese, US) (solar PV farm)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 (demo)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 (spider)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3_MCS (demo)

11) includes 81 wind turbine power curves from onshore WTG manufacturers (onshore wind farm)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 (demo)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 (spider)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3_MCS (demo)

12) includes 81 wind turbine power curves from offshore WTG manufacturers (offshore wind farm)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 (demo)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 (spider)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3_MCS (demo)

13) ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 10 MW

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW (spider)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW_MCS (demo)

14) ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 50 MW

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW (spider)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo)

14) ocean current and tidal technology (30 MW) – this is a similar to an air wind turbine but under water with a turbine propeller (Taiwan has an operating prototype in Kuroshio and PNOC-EC is venturing into ocean current at the Tablas Strait).

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW (demo)

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW (spider)

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW_MCS (demo)

 

CONVENTIONAL, FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

1) geothermal power plant 100 MW

ADV Geo Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Geo Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Geo Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

2) large hydro power plant 500 MW

ADV Large Hydro Model3 (demo)

ADV Large Hydro Model3 (spider)

ADV Large Hydro Model3_MCS (demo)

3) subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW (spider)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo)

4) subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 135 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW (spider)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW_MCS (demo)

5) subcritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 400 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

6) supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 500 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

7) ultra-supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 650 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

8) diesel-fueled genset (compression ignition engine) technology 50 MW

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 (demo)

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 (spider)

ADV Diesel Genset Model3_MCS (demo)

9) fuel oil (bunker oil) fired genset (compression ignition engine) technology 100 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 (spider)

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3_MCS (demo)

10) fuel oil (bunker oil) fired oil thermal technology 600 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

11) natural gas combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) 500 MW

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 (spider)

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3_MCS (demo)

12) natural gas simple cycle (open cycle) gas turbine (OCGT) 70 MW

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 (spider)

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3_MCS (demo)

13) natural gas thermal 200 MW

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

14) petroleum coke (petcoke) fired subcritical thermal 220 MW

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

15) nuclear (uranium) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) technology 1330 MW

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 (demo)

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 (spider)

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3_MCS (demo)

WASTE HEAT RECOVERY BOILER (DIESEL genset; GASOLINE genset; PROPANE, LPG or NATURAL GAS simple cycle)

1) combined heat and power (CHP) circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW CHP (demo)

(Tornado Chart model to follow – please order via email)

2) diesel genset (diesel, gas oil) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Diesel Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

(Tornado Chart model to follow – please order via email)

3) fuel oil (bunker) genset and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

(Tornado Chart model to follow – please order via email)

4) gasoline genset (gasoline, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Gasoline Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

(Tornado Chart model to follow – please order via email)

5) simple cycle GT (propane, LPG) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

ADV Propane Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

(Tornado Chart model to follow – please order via email)

6) simple cycle GT (natural gas, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

ADV Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

(Tornado Chart model to follow – please order via email)

A simple user manual on how to use the deterministic and stochastic project finance models and user license information are found in the files below:

_How to run the Advanced Project Finance Models of OMT (ver 3)

_DISCLAIMER, CONTACT INFORMATION, PAYMENT DETAILS and NON-DISCLOSURE

Our company (OMT Energy Enterprises) can also provide customization services to provide you with power plant project finance models with fixed inputs (deterministic models) as well as random inputs (stochastic models).

If you have an existing model which you want to be audited or upgraded to have stochastic modeling capability, you may also avail of our services at an hourly rate of USD200 per hour for a maximum of 5 hours of charge for customization services.

Use the deterministic model to determine project feasibility, e.g. given first year tariff, determine the equity and project returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK), or given the equity or project target returns, determine the first year tariff.

Use the Tornado Chart model to conduct your sensitivity analysis by varying each independent variable one at a time from -10% to +10% and plot the results like in a Tornado Chart or also known as Spider Chart.

Use the stochastic model to determine project risks during the project development stage. By varying the estimation error on the independent variable (+10% and -10%) and conducting 1,000 random trials, this model will show the upper limit of the estimation error so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value (no error).

A pre-feasibility study has a +/- 15-20% estimation error on the independent variables using rule-of-thumb values.

A detailed feasibility study has a +/- 10-15% estimation error on the independent variables using reasonable estimates guided by internet research on suppliers of equipment.

A final bankable feasibility study has a +/- 5-10% estimation error on the independent variables using EPC contractor and OEM supplier bids.

In the case of fuel oil (bunker) genset, for instance, the estimation error on the independent variables should be less than +3% and -3% so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value.

The model inputs consist of the fixed inputs (independent variables) plus a random component as shown below (based on +/- 10% range, which you can edit in the Sensitivity worksheet):

1) Plant availability factor (% of time) = 94.52% x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

2) Fuel heating value (GHV) = 5,198 Btu/lb x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

3) Plant capacity per unit = 12.00 MW/unit x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

4) Variable O&M cost (at 5.26 $/MWh) = 30.05 $000/MW/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

5) Fixed O&M cost (at 105.63 $/kW/year) = 1,227.64 $000/unit/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

6) Fixed G&A cost = 10.00 $000/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

7) Cost of fuel = 1.299 PHP/kg x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

8) Plant heat rate = 12,186 Btu/kWh x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

9) Exchange rate = 43.00 PHP/USD x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

10) Capital cost = 1,935 $/kW x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

The dependent variables that will be simulated using Monte Carlo Simulation and which a distribution curve (when you make bold font the number of random trials) may be generated are as follows:

1) Equity Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 30% equity, 70% debt

2) Project Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 100% equity, 0% debt

3) Net Profit After Tax

4) Pre-Tax WACC

5) Electricity Tariff (Feed-in-Tariff)

The models are in Philippine Pesos (PHP) and may be converted to any foreign currency by inputting the appropriate exchange rate (e.g. 1 USD = 1.0000 USD; 1 USD = 50.000 PHP, 1 USD = 3.800 MYR, etc.). Then do a global replacement in all worksheets of ‘PHP’ with ‘XXX’, where ‘XXX’ is the foreign currency of the model.

To purchase, email me at:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

You may pay using PayPal:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

or via bank/wire transfer:

====================

1) Name of Bank Branch & Address:

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)

Pasig Ortigas Branch

G/F Benpres Building, Exchange Road corner Meralco Avenue

Ortigas Center, PASIG CITY 1605

METRO MANILA, PHILIPPINES

2) Account Name:

Marcial T. Ocampo

3) Account Number:

Current Account = 0205-5062-41

4) SWIFT ID Number = BOPIPHMM

====================

Once I confirm with PayPal or with my BPI current account that the payment has been made, I will then email you the real (un-locked) model to replace the demo model you have downloaded.

Hurry and order now, this offer is only good until January 31, 2018.

Regards,

Your Energy Technology Selection and Project Finance Expert

 

Special Sale on Power Plant Project Finance Models (Deterministic and Stochastic) – Renewable, Conventional, Fossil, Nuclear and Waste Heat Recovery Technologies

January 7th, 2018 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Special Sale on Power Plant Project Finance Models (Deterministic and Stochastic) – Renewable, Conventional, Fossil, Nuclear and Waste Heat Recovery

=============================================

NEWS FLASH JUST NOW.

YOU CAN NOW ORDER AND PURCHASE DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC (MCS) PROJECT FINANCE MODELS IN UNITED STATES DOLLAR (USD).

HERE ARE SOME EXAMPLE DEMO (LOCKED) MODELS:

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

FOR OTHER POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES, YOU MAY ORDER AND PURCHASE BY EMAIL AT:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

AND SPECIFY YOUR TYPE OF MODEL. YOU MAY ALSO INCLUDE IN YOUR EMAIL YOUR SAMPLE INPUTS SO I CAN IMMEDIATELY CUSTOMIZE YOUR MODEL FOR FREE.

Installed capacity:

Unit capacity, MW/unit = 50.00

No. of units = 1

Total installed capacity = 50.00 x 1 = 50.00 MW

Net capacity factor (NCF):

Availability, % of time or days down = 97.08% or 11 days off-line

Load Factor, % of gross capacity = 95.00%

Own Use, % of gross capacity = 10.00%

Net capacity factor target, % = 97.08% x 95.00% x (1 – 10.00%) = 83.00%

Gross generation = 50.00 x (24 x 365) x (97.08% x 95.00%) = 403,933 MWh/year

Net Generation = 50.00 x (24 x 365) x 83.00% = 363,540 MWh/year

All-in Capital and Operating & Maintenance (O&M) costs:

All-in capital cost target, USD/kW = 4,114 (or absolute USD = 4,114 x 50.00 x 1,000)

Fixed O&M cost target, USD/kW/year = 105.63

Variable O&M cost target, USD/MWh = 5.26

G&A cost target, ‘000 USD/year = 10.00

Balance Sheet accounts:

Salvage value = 5% of original value

Days receivable, days = 30

Days payable, days = 30

Days inventory (fuel, lubes, supplies) = 60

Depreciation period (straight line), years = 20

Refurbishment cost (% of EPC as overhaul cost) = 10%

Timing of Refurbishment (year from COD) = 10

Local Component (LC) and Foreign Components (FC):

Target local cost (LC), % of all-in capital cost = 59.2%

Target foreign cost (FC), % of all-in capital cost = 1 – 59.2% = 40.8%

Note: local CAPEX to be funded by local debt

foreign CAPEX to be funded by foreign debt

Local and Foreign Debt:

Local and foreign debt upfront legal & financing fees = 2.00%

Local and foreign commitment fees = 0.50 p.a.

Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD, months = 6

Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (DSR), months = 6

Local Debt All-in Interest Rate excluding tax =10.00% p.a.

Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP), years = 10

Foreign Debt All-in Interest Rate excluding tax =10.00% p.a.

Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP), years = 10

Capital structure and target IRR:

Debt ratio target, % of total capital = 70%

Equity ratio target, % of total capital = 1 – 70% = 30%

Target IRR = 16.44% p.a.

Tax Regime:

Income tax holiday (ITH) = 7 years (pay income tax on 8th year)

Income tax rate (after ITH) = 10% of taxable income

Property tax rate (from COD) = 1.5%

Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) = 80%

Local business tax (% of revenue) = 1.0%

Government share for RE (from COD) = 1.0% of revenues – cost of goods sold

ER 1-94 contribution, PHP/kWh sold = 0.01 (to DOE)

Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT = 10%

Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT = 5%

Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) = 0.5% (not used)

PEZA incentives (income tax rate from COD) = 5% (if used)

Royalty = 1.5% (if used in mini-hydro)

VAT on importation = 12%

VAT recovery rate = 70%

Timing of VAT recovery (years after COD) = 5

Customs duty = 0%

Flags (Switches):

Biomass Fuel switch (1 = yes, 0 = no) = 1

Type of incentives (1 = NO, 2 = BOI, 3 = PEZA) = 2

Value added tax (0 = NO, 1 VAT) = 0 for renewable energy (RE)

Timing:

Construction period (from FC), months = 24

Operating period (from COD) = 20 years (maximum 30)

Years from base year CPI for CAPEX estimates = 1 (usually zero)

Years from base year CPI for OPEX estimates = 1 (usually zero)

Exchange Rate and Inflation:

Base foreign exchange rate, PHP/USD = 50.00

Forward foreign exchange rate, PHP/USD = 50.00

OPEX inflation (CPI): to model real vs. nominal analysis

Local inflation (CPI) = 0.0% p.a. (real analysis)

Foreign inflation (CPI) = 0.0% p.a. (real analysis)

CAPEX inflation (CPI): to model construction delay

Local inflation (CPI) = 4.0% p.a. (escalation of local CAPEX)

Foreign inflation (CPI) = 2.0% p.a. (escalation of foreign CAPEX)

Power plant footprint:

Plant footprint, hectares = 50.00

Price of land (purchased), PHP/m2 = 28.65 (land is purchased)

Land area (lease), m2 = 500,000

Land lease rate , PHP/m2/year = 0.00 (no land lease)

Fuel properties and cost:

Density of solid fuel, kg/MT = 1,000 (for solid biomass)

Density of liquid fuel, kg/L = 0.966 (for liquid fuel oil or bunker)

Cost of bagasse = 1,988 PHP/MT (at 2,275 kcal/kg) at 30% blend

Cost of rice hull = 1,000 PHP/MT (at 3,150 kcal/kg) at 70% blend

Average cost of solid fuel = 1,299 PHP/MT (biomass)

Average cost of liquid fuel = 34.84 PHP/L (fuel oil)

Average cost of gaseous fuel = 8.628 $/GJ (natural gas)

Average heating value of solid fuel, Btu/lb = 5,198 (biomass)

Average heating value of liquid fuel, Btu/lb = 19,500 (fuel oil)

Average heating value of gaseous fuel, Btu/lb = 22,129 (natural gas)

Power plant thermal efficiency or plant heat rate:

Plant heat rate (at 100% efficiency) = 3,600/1.05506 = 3,412 Btu/kWh

Plant heat rate (Btu of GHV per kWh gross) = 12,186

Target Thermal efficiency = 3,412/12,186 = 28.00%

=============================================

This is a special offer for the entire year of 2018. For the price of a deterministic model, you get a free copy of a stochastic model.

Our company (OMT Energy Enterprises) can also provide customization services to provide you with power plant project finance models with fixed inputs (deterministic models) as well as random inputs (stochastic models).

If you have an existing model which you want to be audited or upgraded to have stochastic modeling capability, you may also avail of our services at an hourly rate of USD200 per hour for a maximum of 5 hours of charge for customization services.

Use the deterministic model to determine project feasibility, e.g. given first year tariff, determine the equity and project returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK), or given the equity or project target returns, determine the first year tariff.

Use the stochastic model to determine project risks during the project development stage. By varying the estimation error on the independent variable (+10% and -10%) and conducting 1,000 random trials, this model will show the upper limit of the estimation error so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value (no error).

A pre-feasibility study has a +/- 15-20% estimation error on the independent variables using rule-of-thumb values.

A detailed feasibility study has a +/- 10-15% estimation error on the independent variables using reasonable estimates guided by internet research on suppliers of equipment.

A final bankable feasibility study has a +/- 5-10% estimation error on the independent variables using EPC contractor and OEM supplier bids.

In the case of fuel oil (bunker) genset, for instance, the estimation error on the independent variables should be less than +3% and -3% so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value.

The model inputs consist of the fixed inputs (independent variables) plus a random component as shown below (based on +/- 10% range, which you can edit in the Sensitivity worksheet):

1) Plant availability factor (% of time) = 94.52% x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

2) Fuel heating value (GHV) = 5,198 Btu/lb x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

3) Plant capacity per unit = 12.00 MW/unit x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

4) Variable O&M cost (at 5.26 $/MWh) = 30.05 $000/MW/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

5) Fixed O&M cost (at 105.63 $/kW/year) = 1,227.64 $000/unit/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

6) Fixed G&A cost = 10.00 $000/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

7) Cost of fuel = 1.299 PHP/kg x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

8) Plant heat rate = 12,186 Btu/kWh x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

9) Exchange rate = 43.00 PHP/USD x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

10) Capital cost = 1,935 $/kW x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

The dependent variables that will be simulated using Monte Carlo Simulation and which a distribution curve (when you make bold font the number of random trials) may be generated are as follows:

1) Equity Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 30% equity, 70% debt

2) Project Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 100% equity, 0% debt

3) Net Profit After Tax

4) Pre-Tax WACC

5) Electricity Tariff (Feed-in-Tariff)

The following deterministic (fixed inputs) and stochastic (random inputs using Monte Carlo Simulation) models may be downloaded for only USD1,400.

Before you can run the MCS model, you need to download first the Monte Carlo Simulation add-in and run it before running the MCS model:

MonteCarlito_v1_10

The models for renewable, conventional, fossil, nuclear, energy storage, and combined heat and power (CHP) project finance models are based on a single template so that you can prioritize which power generation technology to apply in a given application for more detailed design and economic study.

The models below are in Philippine Pesos (PHP) and may be converted to any foreign currency by inputting the appropriate exchange rate (e.g. 1 USD = 1.0000 USD; 1 USD = 50.000 PHP, 1 USD = 3.800 MYR, etc.). Then do a global replacement in all worksheets of ‘PHP’ with ‘XXX’, where ‘XXX’ is the foreign currency of the model.

RENEWABLE ENERGY

process heat (steam) and power

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-cogeneration-project-finance-model-ver-3/

bagasse, rice husk or wood waste fired boiler steam turbine generator

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-direct-combustion-project-finance-model-ver-3/

gasification (thermal conversion in high temperature without oxygen or air)

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-gasification-project-finance-model-ver-3/

integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-igcc-project-finance-model-ver-3/

waste-to-energy (WTE) technology for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal and treatment

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-waste-to-energy-wte-project-finance-model-ver-3-2/

waste-to-energy (WTE) pyrolysis technology

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-waste-to-energy-wte-pyrolysis-project-finance-model-ver-3/

run-of-river (mini-hydro) power plant

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-mini-hydro-run-of-river-project-finance-model-ver-3/

concentrating solar power (CSP) 400 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-concentrating-solar-power-csp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

solar PV technology 1 MW Chinese

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-solar-photo-voltaic-pv-project-finance-model-ver-3-1-mw/

solar PV technology 25 MW European and Non-Chinese (Korean, Japanese, US)

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-solar-photo-voltaic-pv-project-finance-model-ver-3-25-mw/

includes 81 wind turbine power curves from onshore WTG manufacturers

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-onshore-wind-energy-project-finance-model-ver-3-copy/

includes 81 wind turbine power curves from offshore WTG manufacturers

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-offshore-wind-project-finance-model-ver-3/

ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 10 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-ocean-thermal-energy-conversion-otec-10-mw-project-finance-model-ver-3/

ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 50 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-ocean-thermal-energy-conversion-otec-project-finance-model-ver-3-50-mw/

CONVENTIONAL, FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

geothermal power plant 100 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-geo-thermal-project-finance-model-ver-3/

large hydro power plant 500 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-large-hydro-impoundment-project-finance-model-ver-3/

subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-coal-fired-circulating-fluidized-cfb-project-finance-model-ver-3-50-mw/

subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 135 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-coal-fired-circulating-fluidized-bed-cfb-project-finance-model-ver-3-135-mw/

subcritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 400 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-pulverized-coal-pc-subcritical-project-finance-model-ver-3/

supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 500 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-pulverized-coal-pc-supercritical-project-finance-model-ver-3/

ultra-supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 650 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-pulverized-coal-pc-ultrasupercritical-project-finance-model-ver-3/

diesel-fueled genset (compression ignition engine) technology 50 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-diesel-genset-project-finance-model-ver-3-copy/

fuel oil (bunker oil) fired genset (compression ignition engine) technology 100 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-fuel-oil-genset-project-finance-model-ver-3-copy-2/

fuel oil (bunker oil) fired oil thermal technology 600 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-fuel-oil-thermal-project-finance-model-ver-3/

natural gas combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) 500 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-natgas-fired-combined-cycle-gas-turbine-ccgt-project-finance-model-ver-3/

natural gas simple cycle (open cycle) gas turbine (OCGT) 70 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-natgas-fired-open-cycle-gas-turbine-ocgt-project-finance-model-ver-3/

natural gas thermal 200 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-natgas-fired-thermal-project-finance-model-ver-3/

petroleum coke (petcoke) fired subcritical thermal 220 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-petcoke-thermal-power-plant-project-finance-model-ver-3/

nuclear (uranium) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) technology 1330 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-nuclear-power-phwr-project-finance-model-ver-3/

WASTE HEAT RECOVERY BOILER (DIESEL genset; GASOLINE genset; PROPANE, LPG or NATURAL GAS simple cycle)

combined heat and power (CHP) circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-coal-fired-cfb-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

diesel genset (diesel, gas oil) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-diesel-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

fuel oil (bunker) genset and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-bunker-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

gasoline genset (gasoline, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-gasoline-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

simple cycle GT (propane, LPG) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-lpg-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

simple cycle GT (natural gas, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-natgas-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

Cheers,

Your energy technology selection and project finance modeling expert

Complete List of Deterministic and Stochastic Project Finance Models

January 5th, 2018 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Complete List of Deterministic (fixed inputs) and Stochastic (random inputs) Project Finance Models

=============================================

NEWS FLASH JUST NOW.

YOU CAN NOW ORDER AND PURCHASE DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC (MCS) PROJECT FINANCE MODELS IN UNITED STATES DOLLAR (USD).

HERE ARE SOME EXAMPLE DEMO (LOCKED) MODELS:

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo) (USD)

FOR OTHER POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES, YOU MAY ORDER AND PURCHASE BY EMAIL AT:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

AND SPECIFY YOUR TYPE OF MODEL. YOU MAY ALSO INCLUDE IN YOUR EMAIL YOUR SAMPLE INPUTS SO I CAN IMMEDIATELY CUSTOMIZE YOUR MODEL FOR FREE.

Installed capacity:

Unit capacity, MW/unit = 50.00

No. of units = 1

Total installed capacity = 50.00 x 1 = 50.00 MW

Net capacity factor (NCF):

Availability, % of time or days down = 97.08% or 11 days off-line

Load Factor, % of gross capacity = 95.00%

Own Use, % of gross capacity = 10.00%

Net capacity factor target, % = 97.08% x 95.00% x (1 – 10.00%) = 83.00%

Gross generation = 50.00 x (24 x 365) x (97.08% x 95.00%) = 403,933 MWh/year

Net Generation = 50.00 x (24 x 365) x 83.00% = 363,540 MWh/year

All-in Capital and Operating & Maintenance (O&M) costs:

All-in capital cost target, USD/kW = 4,114 (or absolute USD = 4,114 x 50.00 x 1,000)

Fixed O&M cost target, USD/kW/year = 105.63

Variable O&M cost target, USD/MWh = 5.26

G&A cost target, ‘000 USD/year = 10.00

Balance Sheet accounts:

Salvage value = 5% of original value

Days receivable, days = 30

Days payable, days = 30

Days inventory (fuel, lubes, supplies) = 60

Depreciation period (straight line), years = 20

Refurbishment cost (% of EPC as overhaul cost) = 10%

Timing of Refurbishment (year from COD) = 10

Local Component (LC) and Foreign Components (FC):

Target local cost (LC), % of all-in capital cost = 59.2%

Target foreign cost (FC), % of all-in capital cost = 1 – 59.2% = 40.8%

Note: local CAPEX to be funded by local debt

foreign CAPEX to be funded by foreign debt

Local and Foreign Debt:

Local and foreign debt upfront legal & financing fees = 2.00%

Local and foreign commitment fees = 0.50 p.a.

Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD, months = 6

Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (DSR), months = 6

Local Debt All-in Interest Rate excluding tax =10.00% p.a.

Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP), years = 10

Foreign Debt All-in Interest Rate excluding tax =10.00% p.a.

Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP), years = 10

Capital structure and target IRR:

Debt ratio target, % of total capital = 70%

Equity ratio target, % of total capital = 1 – 70% = 30%

Target IRR = 16.44% p.a.

Tax Regime:

Income tax holiday (ITH) = 7 years (pay income tax on 8th year)

Income tax rate (after ITH) = 10% of taxable income

Property tax rate (from COD) = 1.5%

Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) = 80%

Local business tax (% of revenue) = 1.0%

Government share for RE (from COD) = 1.0% of revenues – cost of goods sold

ER 1-94 contribution, PHP/kWh sold = 0.01 (to DOE)

Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT = 10%

Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT = 5%

Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) = 0.5% (not used)

PEZA incentives (income tax rate from COD) = 5% (if used)

Royalty = 1.5% (if used in mini-hydro)

VAT on importation = 12%

VAT recovery rate = 70%

Timing of VAT recovery (years after COD) = 5

Customs duty = 0%

Flags (Switches):

Biomass Fuel switch (1 = yes, 0 = no) = 1

Type of incentives (1 = NO, 2 = BOI, 3 = PEZA) = 2

Value added tax (0 = NO, 1 VAT) = 0 for renewable energy (RE)

Timing:

Construction period (from FC), months = 24

Operating period (from COD) = 20 years (maximum 30)

Years from base year CPI for CAPEX estimates = 1 (usually zero)

Years from base year CPI for OPEX estimates = 1 (usually zero)

Exchange Rate and Inflation:

Base foreign exchange rate, PHP/USD = 50.00

Forward foreign exchange rate, PHP/USD = 50.00

OPEX inflation (CPI): to model real vs. nominal analysis

Local inflation (CPI) = 0.0% p.a. (real analysis)

Foreign inflation (CPI) = 0.0% p.a. (real analysis)

CAPEX inflation (CPI): to model construction delay

Local inflation (CPI) = 4.0% p.a. (escalation of local CAPEX)

Foreign inflation (CPI) = 2.0% p.a. (escalation of foreign CAPEX)

Power plant footprint:

Plant footprint, hectares = 50.00

Price of land (purchased), PHP/m2 = 28.65 (land is purchased)

Land area (lease), m2 = 500,000

Land lease rate , PHP/m2/year = 0.00 (no land lease)

Fuel properties and cost:

Density of solid fuel, kg/MT = 1,000 (for solid biomass)

Density of liquid fuel, kg/L = 0.966 (for liquid fuel oil or bunker)

Cost of bagasse = 1,988 PHP/MT (at 2,275 kcal/kg) at 30% blend

Cost of rice hull = 1,000 PHP/MT (at 3,150 kcal/kg) at 70% blend

Average cost of solid fuel = 1,299 PHP/MT (biomass)

Average cost of liquid fuel = 34.84 PHP/L (fuel oil)

Average cost of gaseous fuel = 8.628 $/GJ (natural gas)

Average heating value of solid fuel, Btu/lb = 5,198 (biomass)

Average heating value of liquid fuel, Btu/lb = 19,500 (fuel oil)

Average heating value of gaseous fuel, Btu/lb = 22,129 (natural gas)

Power plant thermal efficiency or plant heat rate:

Plant heat rate (at 100% efficiency) = 3,600/1.05506 = 3,412 Btu/kWh

Plant heat rate (Btu of GHV per kWh gross) = 12,186

Target Thermal efficiency = 3,412/12,186 = 28.00%

=============================================

Your energy technology selection expert is pleased to announce that deterministic (fixed inputs) and stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) are now available for all power generation technologies (renewable energy such as biomass, solar PV and CSP, wind, mini-hydro, ocean thermal and ocean tidal/current, and conventional energy such as large hydro, geothermal, and fossil energy such as oil diesel and oil thermal, natural gas simple cycle and combined cycle, coal thermal and clean coal technologies, nuclear energy, and energy storage and waste heat recovery and combined heat and power technologies).

You may download the following samples to try the advanced features of using fixed inputs and random inputs in order to manage your project risks:

Deterministic (fixed inputs) model: (USD 700):

Stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) model (USD 1400):

Before you can run the MCS model, you need to download first the Monte Carlo Simulation add-in and run it before running the MCS model:

MonteCarlito_v1_10

Here is the complete list of deterministic and stochastic project finance models.

RENEWABLE ENERGY

1) process heat (steam) and power (cogeneration)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

2) bagasse, rice husk or wood waste fired boiler steam turbine generator

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

3) gasification (thermal conversion in high temperature without oxygen or air

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

4) integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

5) waste-to-energy (WTE) technology for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal and treatment

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

6) waste-to-energy (WTE) pyrolysis technology

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis_MCS (demo) (USD)

7) run-of-river (mini-hydro) power plant

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA (demo)

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA (demo) (USD)

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA_MCS (demo)

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA_MCS (demo) (USD)

8) concentrating solar power (CSP) 400 MW

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 (demo)

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

9) solar PV technology 1 MW Chinese (roof top BIPV)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3 (demo)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

10) solar PV technology 25 MW European and Non-Chinese (Korean, Japanese, US) (solar PV farm)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 (demo)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

11) includes 81 wind turbine power curves from onshore WTG manufacturers (onshore wind farm)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 (demo)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

12) includes 81 wind turbine power curves from offshore WTG manufacturers (offshore wind farm)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 (demo)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

13) ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 10 MW

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW (demo) (USD)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW_MCS (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW_MCS (demo) (USD)

14) ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 50 MW

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo) (USD)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo) (USD)

14) ocean current and tidal technology (30 MW) – this is a similar to an air wind turbine but under water with a turbine propeller (Taiwan has an operating prototype in Kuroshio and PNOC-EC is venturing into ocean current at the Tablas Strait).

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW (demo)

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW (demo) (USD)

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW_MCS (demo)

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW_MCS (demo) (USD)

CONVENTIONAL, FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

1) geothermal power plant 100 MW

ADV Geo Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Geo Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Geo Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Geo Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

2) large hydro power plant 500 MW

ADV Large Hydro Model3 (demo)

ADV Large Hydro Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Large Hydro Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Large Hydro Model3_MCS (demo) (USD

3) subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo) (USD)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo) (USD)

4) subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 135 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW (demo) (USD)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW_MCS (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW_MCS (demo) (USD)

5) subcritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 400 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

6) supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 500 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

7) ultra-supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 650 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

8) diesel-fueled genset (compression ignition engine) technology 50 MW

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 (demo)

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Diesel Genset Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Diesel Genset Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

9) fuel oil (bunker oil) fired genset (compression ignition engine) technology 100 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

10) fuel oil (bunker oil) fired oil thermal technology 600 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

11) natural gas combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) 500 MW

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

12) natural gas simple cycle (open cycle) gas turbine (OCGT) 70 MW

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

13) natural gas thermal 200 MW

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

14) petroleum coke (petcoke) fired subcritical thermal 220 MW

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

15) nuclear (uranium) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) technology 1330 MW

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 (demo)

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

 

WASTE HEAT RECOVERY BOILER (DIESEL genset; GASOLINE genset; PROPANE, LPG or NATURAL GAS simple cycle)

1) combined heat and power (CHP) circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW CHP (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW CHP (demo) (USD)

 2) diesel genset (diesel, gas oil) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Diesel Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

ADV Diesel Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo) (USD)

 3) fuel oil (bunker) genset and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo) (USD)

 4) gasoline genset (gasoline, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Gasoline Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

ADV Gasoline Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo) (USD)

 5) simple cycle GT (propane, LPG) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

ADV Propane Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

ADV Propane Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo) (USD)

 6) simple cycle GT (natural gas, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

ADV Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

ADV Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo) (USD)

A simple user manual on how to use the deterministic and stochastic project finance models and user license information are found in the files below:

_How to run the Advanced Project Finance Models of OMT (ver 3)

_DISCLAIMER, CONTACT INFORMATION, PAYMENT DETAILS and NON-DISCLOSURE

Our company (OMT Energy Enterprises) can also provide customization services to provide you with power plant project finance models with fixed inputs (deterministic models) as well as random inputs (stochastic models).

If you have an existing model which you want to be audited or upgraded to have stochastic modeling capability, you may also avail of our services at an hourly rate of USD200 per hour for a maximum of 5 hours of charge for customization services.

Use the deterministic model to determine project feasibility, e.g. given first year tariff, determine the equity and project returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK), or given the equity or project target returns, determine the first year tariff.

Use the stochastic model to determine project risks during the project development stage. By varying the estimation error on the independent variable (+10% and -10%) and conducting 1,000 random trials, this model will show the upper limit of the estimation error so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value (no error).

A pre-feasibility study has a +/- 15-20% estimation error on the independent variables using rule-of-thumb values.

A detailed feasibility study has a +/- 10-15% estimation error on the independent variables using reasonable estimates guided by internet research on suppliers of equipment.

A final bankable feasibility study has a +/- 5-10% estimation error on the independent variables using EPC contractor and OEM supplier bids.

In the case of fuel oil (bunker) genset, for instance, the estimation error on the independent variables should be less than +3% and -3% so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value.

The model inputs consist of the fixed inputs (independent variables) plus a random component as shown below (based on +/- 10% range, which you can edit in the Sensitivity worksheet):

1) Plant availability factor (% of time) = 94.52% x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

2) Fuel heating value (GHV) = 5,198 Btu/lb x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

3) Plant capacity per unit = 12.00 MW/unit x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

4) Variable O&M cost (at 5.26 $/MWh) = 30.05 $000/MW/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

5) Fixed O&M cost (at 105.63 $/kW/year) = 1,227.64 $000/unit/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

6) Fixed G&A cost = 10.00 $000/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

7) Cost of fuel = 1.299 PHP/kg x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

8) Plant heat rate = 12,186 Btu/kWh x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

9) Exchange rate = 43.00 PHP/USD x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

10) Capital cost = 1,935 $/kW x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

The dependent variables that will be simulated using Monte Carlo Simulation and which a distribution curve (when you make bold font the number of random trials) may be generated are as follows:

1) Equity Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 30% equity, 70% debt

2) Project Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 100% equity, 0% debt

3) Net Profit After Tax

4) Pre-Tax WACC

5) Electricity Tariff (Feed-in-Tariff)

The models are in Philippine Pesos (PHP) and may be converted to any foreign currency by inputting the appropriate exchange rate (e.g. 1 USD = 1.0000 USD; 1 USD = 50.000 PHP, 1 USD = 3.800 MYR, etc.). Then do a global replacement in all worksheets of ‘PHP’ with ‘XXX’, where ‘XXX’ is the foreign currency of the model.

 

To purchase, email me at:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

 

You may pay using PayPal:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

or via bank/wire transfer:

====================

1) Name of Bank Branch & Address:

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)

Pasig Ortigas Branch

G/F Benpres Building, Exchange Road corner Meralco Avenue

Ortigas Center, PASIG CITY 1605

METRO MANILA, PHILIPPINES

2) Account Name:

Marcial T. Ocampo

3) Account Number:

Current Account = 0205-5062-41

4) SWIFT ID Number = BOPIPHMM

====================

Once I confirm with PayPal or with my BPI current account that the payment has been made, I will then email you the real (un-locked) model to replace the demo model you have downloaded.

Hurry and order now, this offer is only good until January 31, 2018.

Regards,

Your Energy Technology Selection and Project Finance Expert

 

Biomass Direct Combustion (steam boiler + turbine) Project Finance Models (Deterministic and Stochastic)

January 4th, 2018 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Biomass Direct Combustion (steam boiler + turbine) Project Finance Models (Deterministic and Stochastic)

Your energy technology selection expert is pleased to announce that deterministic (fixed inputs) and stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) are now available for all power generation technologies (renewable energy such as biomass, solar PV and CSP, wind, mini-hydro, ocean thermal and ocean tidal/current, and conventional energy such as large hydro, geothermal, and fossil energy such as oil diesel and oil thermal, natural gas simple cycle and combined cycle, coal thermal and clean coal technologies, nuclear energy, and energy storage and waste heat recovery and combined heat and power technologies).

In the case of biomass direct combustion (steam boiler + turbine), the following samples may be purchased at 50% discount.

You may download the following samples to try the advanced features of using fixed inputs and random inputs in order to manage your project risks:

Deterministic (fixed inputs) model: (USD 700):

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo)  – in PHP

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo) (USD)

Stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) model (USD 1400):

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) – in PHP

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

Before you can run the MCS model, you need to download first the Monte Carlo Simulation add-in and run it before running the above MCS model:

MonteCarlito_v1_10

The model inputs consist of the fixed inputs (independent variables) plus a random component as shown below (based on +/- 10% range, which you can edit in the Sensitivity worksheet):

1) Plant availability factor (% of time) = 94.52% x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

2) Fuel heating value (GHV) = 5,198 Btu/lb x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

3) Plant capacity per unit = 12.00 MW/unit x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

4) Variable O&M cost (at 5.26 $/MWh) = 30.05 $000/MW/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

5) Fixed O&M cost (at 105.63 $/kW/year) = 1,227.64 $000/unit/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

6) Fixed G&A cost = 10.00 $000/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

7) Cost of fuel = 1.299 PHP/kg x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

8) Plant heat rate = 12,186 Btu/kWh x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

9) Exchange rate = 43.00 PHP/USD x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

10) Capital cost = 1,935 $/kW x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

The dependent variables that will be simulated using Monte Carlo Simulation and which a distribution curve (when you make bold font the number of random trials) may be generated are as follows:

1) Equity Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 30% equity, 70% debt

2) Project Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 100% equity, 0% debt

3) Net Profit After Tax

4) Pre-Tax WACC

5) Electricity Tariff (Feed-in-Tariff)

The models are in Philippine Pesos (PHP) and may be converted to any foreign currency by inputting the appropriate exchange rate (e.g. 1 USD = 1.0000 USD; 1 USD = 50.000 PHP, 1 USD = 3.800 MYR, etc.). Then do a global replacement in all worksheets of ‘PHP’ with ‘XXX’, where ‘XXX’ is the foreign currency of the model.

To purchase, email me at:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

You may pay using PayPal:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

or via bank/wire transfer:

====================

1) Name of Bank Branch & Address:

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)

Pasig Ortigas Branch

G/F Benpres Building, Exchange Road corner Meralco Avenue

Ortigas Center, PASIG CITY 1605

METRO MANILA, PHILIPPINES

2) Account Name:

Marcial T. Ocampo

3) Account Number:

Current Account = 0205-5062-41

4) SWIFT ID Number = BOPIPHMM

====================

Once I confirm with PayPal or with my BPI current account that the payment has been made, I will then email you the real (un-locked) model to replace the demo model you have downloaded.

Hurry and order now, this offer is only good until January 31, 2018.

Regards,

Your Energy Technology Selection and Project Finance Expert

 

New 2013 Price List of my Project Finance Models & Technical Tool Kits

January 17th, 2013 1 Comment   Posted in financial models

New 2013 Price List of my Project Finance Models & Technical Tool Kits

After the successful sale of my models and tool kits, I am happy to annouce the new price lists of my financial models, optimization tools and power plant emission calculation tool kits.

Order now this Christmass and get a whooping 50% discount on all articles and models. Hurry, this offer ends December 31, 2013. And if you buy two articles or models, the third one will be free! Order now and email me.

More »

Project Finance Models – Model Structure

July 31st, 2012 2 Comments   Posted in financial models

Project Finance Models – Model Structure

Don’t waste time developing your model from scratch.

Purchase now our state-of-the-art project finance models for both conventional, fossil, nuclear and renewable energy power generation technologies.

More »

Solar PV-Diesel Hybrid Project finance Model with Resource Assessment – now available

March 21st, 2012 2 Comments   Posted in financial models

Solar PV-Diesel Hybrid Project finance Model with Resource Assessment – now available

Analyzing the economics of a solar PV-diesel hybrid power plant
(as well as other RE-diesel hybrid systems such as wind-diesel, biomass-diesel,
mini-hydro-diesel) has now become simple with the new solar PV-diesel project
finance model that makes use of the PVSYST V5.4 solar energy model. Avoid the
time consuming hassle by purchasing this latest product offering from your
energy technology selection expert. More »

50% Discount on all Project Finance Models this Christmas extended till 28 Feb 2015

November 8th, 2011 No Comments   Posted in financial models

50% Discount on all Project Finance Models this Christmas extended till  28 Feb 2015

DUE TO THE TREMENDOUS RESPONSE AND INTEREST, YOUR ENERGY TECHNOLOGY EXPERT IS EXTENDING THE DISCOUNT TO JANUARY 8, 2012 WITH A HEFTY 50% DISCOUNT (PAY ONLY 50% OF ORIGINAL LIST PRICE).

Enjoy a 50% discount on all my project finance models for calculating first year tariff, feed-in tariff and project or equity IRR, NPV and payback.

Yes, jumpstart your energy technology selection and business development consultancy this coming year of 2012. Start earning good income just like I did this 2011. Augment your fixed income by going into energy and power industry consultancy. More »

Buy my project finance models, visit my country, and learn one-on-one to use my models

October 30th, 2011 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Buy my project finance models, visit my country, and learn one-on-one to use my models

That’s right. Order and buy now my project finance models this November till December and take advantage of my holiday deals.

Once you have paid via PayPal or wire / bank transfer to my local bank account, I will then email to you the project finance model.

Then take the first flight to Manila and I will meet you at the Airport (NAIA Terminals 1, 2 or 3).

Alternatively, send me my airline ticket and hotel booking charge to your account, and I will fly to your work place and conduct the seminar/workshop to you and your other interested staff.

I will then take you to your hotel and conduct the one-on-one seminar/workshop where you will learn project finance and power plant and financial modeling for conventional (hydro, geothermal, coal thermal, oil thermal, gas thermal, combined cycle gas turbines), renewable (biomass, solar, wind, mini-hydro, ocean thermal energy conversion), nuclear and energy storage power generation technologies. More »

New Best Entrant Project Finance Model with VAT – landfill, diesel, coal, oil, natgas

April 24th, 2010 2 Comments   Posted in financial models

New Best Entrant Project Finance Model with VAT – landfill, diesel, coal, oil, natgas

A new “Best New Entrant” project finance model with value added tax (VAT) has been developed to analyze which of the following technology such as landfill gas to power, diesel engine, coal thermal (pulverized, CFB), oil thermal or natural gas CCGT is the best new entrant providing overall effectiveness in terms of first year tariff and equity returns.

To order, simply proceed to the ENERGY DATA page of this blog and select large scale models, then order via PayPal the desired model.

Alternatively, you may confirm your order via email, then I will email you my local bank details where you may send via wire transfer the payment.

Upon receipt via PayPal or my local bank account, I will then email you two copies of the ordered models.

Regards,

Marcial Ocampo

Energy & Business Development Consultant

More »

Simplified Project Finance Model for Feed-in Tariff (FiT) Calculation

March 3rd, 2010 3 Comments   Posted in financial models

Simplified Project Finance Model for Feed-in Tariff (FiT) Calculation

I simplified the model to its bare functionality and removed the financial ratios section.

The model now has the barest functionality for the feed-in tariff calculation, namely: More »

Project Finance Model for Determining the “Best New Entrant” Power Generation Technology

January 16th, 2010 1 Comment   Posted in financial models

Project Finance Model for Determining the “Best New Entrant” Power Generation Technology

In proposing a new power plant project to address a supply deficiency problem in a given grid, it is important for the project proponent and developer to demonstrate to the investors as well as to the regulator and end-users that the proposed power generation technology solution is the “best new entrant” that will address the power deficiency and provide the cheapest, reliable and stable electricity service. More »

Available Project Finance Models with CDM and Renewable Energy Law Incentives

January 15th, 2010 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Available Project Finance Models with CDM and Renewable Energy Law Incentives

I just finished polishing all my project finance models for the following power generation technologies and are now available for actual runs by project developers, researchers and individuals doing business development.  Using the models below will allow user to determine as quickly as possible the “best new entrant” technology applicable to a particular location given the fuel and energy resource available and the electricity tariff prevailing in the area. More »

How to Optimize Power Plant Design and Configuration (technology, capacity, efficiency, location)

January 11th, 2010 2 Comments   Posted in financial models

How to Optimize Power Plant Design and Configuration (technology, capacity, efficiency, location) – see download file for input data

Optimizing the overall project concept during the plant feasibility study and detailed engineering study is a common problem faced by project developers and EPC contractors.  The question commonly asked by project owners from project developers and designers are:

(1) What engine/manufacturer should be considered (e.g. Siemens, Westinghouse, General Electric, Mitsubishi, Alstom, etc)? More »

Project Finance Model for Incremental Economic Analysis with CDM

January 11th, 2010 2 Comments   Posted in financial models

Project Finance Model for Incremental Economic Analysis with CDM

Incremental economic analysis is the fundamental method of analysis in comparing two or more competing alternatives in order to determine the feasibility of undertaking incremental investments considering the incremental benefits that may be derived.  It is useful in analyzing equipment up-grading, replacement, systems improvement and fuel switching.

During implementation of a project feasibility study for a natural gas pipeline that will serve an anchor load 250-500 mw natural gas-fired combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), it was felt that additional market for the excess Malampaya natural gas (300 mw surplus plus banked gas for sale) needs to be developed to improve the economics of the pipeline. More »

Project Finance Model for Hybrid Power Plant / Multi-fuel System with CDM

January 9th, 2010 Comments Off on Project Finance Model for Hybrid Power Plant / Multi-fuel System with CDM Posted in financial models

Project Finance Model for Hybrid Power Plant / Multi-fuel System with CDM

During implementation of a project feasibility study for a natural gas pipeline that will serve an anchor load 250-500 mw natural gas-fired combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), it was felt that additional market for the excess Malampaya natural gas (300 mw surplus plus banked gas for sale) needs to be developed to improve the economics of the pipeline.

Doing a market, technical and feasibility study for this end-use conversion economics will thus entail developing a robust project finance model that is versatile enought to handle conversion of existing power generation and steam/process heat technologies (coal fired, bunker fired, diesel fired diesel electric generators, steam and process heat equipment, refrigeration) to natural gas firing.

The author, an energy technology and business development consultant, has prepared an Incremental Economics Conversion Model for comparing a base case (existing coal-fired or oil fired generation, process heat, refrigeration and air conditioning equipment) versus a more energy efficient, less polluting and cheaper to operate natural gas-fired equipment. More »

Project Finance Models for Power Plants with Carbon Credits under CDM (download file)

January 4th, 2010 2 Comments   Posted in financial models

Project Finance Models for Power Plants with Carbon Credits under CDM (download file)

Due to worldwide interest in carbon emission reduction credits thru the clean development mechanishm (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol to encourage renewable and energy efficiency improvement in power generation to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate global warming, I am issuing another model update for January 2009.  I also made some changes to working capital and all-in project cost estimation and loan amortization calculations.
Also due to numerous inquiries and tremendous interest, the deadline has been extend up to 31 January 2010.  Order now to get 70% discount on any project finance model of your choice.  This 2010 version now includes carbon emission reduction credits under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. It provides for one time cost for consultancy services and registration to the CDM Executive Board and annual carbon emission reduction credits net of annual fees for monitoring by local consultants and Executive Board.

More »

How to evaluate economics of energy conversion – incremental analysis of two alternatives

November 14th, 2009 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to evaluate economics of energy conversion – incremental analysis of two alternatives

In our day to day life, each individual is always presented the dilemma of which of two or more alternatives is the best solution to a problem.

The same life’s problem is encountered by businesses, power generators and users of fuels and energy resources – which is more economical – using an old diesel engine to generate electricity or to convert to dual fueling with diesel/fuel oil and natural gas fuel or purchase a new diesel engine capable of running on dual fuels such as diesel/fuel oil and the cheaper natural gas.

Your energy technology expert has modified his reciprocating engine model to run on multiple fuels such as gasoline, diesel, biofuels, fuel oils, biogas, landfill gas or natural gas. More »

How to evaluate economic feasibility of a power plant project – use project finance model

November 9th, 2009 3 Comments   Posted in financial models

How to evaluate economic feasibility of a power plant project – use project finance model

If you are preparing a pre-feasibility study or a detailed feasibility study of a small or a large scale power plant project, it is best to use my latest state-of-the-art power plant and project finance model.

It includes a modeling of the plant capacity and heat rate degradation, overhaul cycle and plant operating hours, gross and net generation, distribution losses and net sales, gross revenue (direct customers, sales to grid, sales to spot market), fuel costs, variable and fixed O&M costs, property taxes, property insurance, business interruption insurance, regulatory costs (permits, fees, licenses, fines), DSRF expense, depreciation and amortization, loan interest, income before tax, corporate income tax, income after tax, cash flows (add back depreciation less principal repayment plus/minus non-tax deductible adjustments), project IRR and payback (100% equity), equity IRR and payback (e.g. 30% equity, 70% debt), debt service cover ratio, levelized tariff, generation cost and net profit, and financial ratios (current ratio, quick ratio, A/R turnover, days sales in receivables, inventory turnover, liabilities to equity ratio, number of times interest earned, return on assets, net profit to assets ratio, net profit to sales ratio, return on owner’s equity). More »

How to develop your own project finance model

How to develop your own project finance model

In simplest terms, a project finance model is a business plan written in some sort of a spreadsheet implemented in software (e.g. MS Excel).

It is prepared primarily to assist a potential investor like you to assess numerous business alternatives that you might want to venture into — and decide which alternative would meet your investment objectives – capital requirement, payback, profitability or internal rate of return, cash flows and risks profile.

By preparing in advance a financial model and doing simple to complicated sensitivity tests, the potential investor is forewarned of any potential problems in advance so that mitigation measures are put in place to address such potential risks and problems.

It consists of the following worksheets (or tabs):

1) Assumption or Input worksheet

2) Capital Cost Estimation Worksheet

3) Project Schedule or Drawdown Worksheet

4) Total Project Cost Summary Worksheet (equipment, taxes, installation, land, working capital, capitalized expenses, capitalized interest during construction)

5) Loan Amortization Worksheet (interest, principal repayment)

6) Depreciation Worksheet (beginning balance, depreciation, ending balance)

7) Working Capital Worksheet (receivables, payables, stocks, training, mobilization)

8) Income & Expense Statement Worksheet

9) Balance Sheet Worksheet

More »