Archive for the ‘Monte Carlo Simulation’ Category:
Monte Carlo Simulation in Project Finance Modeling – free demo model
Your energy technology selection and project finance modeling expert is pleased to announce that you can now download a free demo model for Stochastic analysis of the risks in a biomass direct combustion power plant. (Other MCS models are available for renewable energy, conventional, fossil, nuclear power generation technologies) More »
Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) in Supply & Demand Forecasting and Financial & Process Modeling
The conventional or usual approach to forecasting supply & demand of power, energy and goods and services is to use deterministic modeling technique which uses fixed or static data – quantity, price and growth rate.
The same is true with financial & process modeling – fixed or static data is used in estimating plant output (production rate, output, power to GDP elasticity ratio), revenues (growth rate, price escalation), capital and operating costs, financing costs (equity returns, debt interest, commitment fees, front-end fees) and capital structure (% equity, % debt).
However, at best, static data used in deterministic models, provides only static results for equity returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK), project returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK), net present value of income after tax, discounting rate pre-tax WACC, and the unit tariff (selling price, electricity price, energy price).
Thus, static inputs and outputs from deterministic models provide very little insight into the risk profile of a given project being analyzed for possible investment decisions – go or no go. More »
Performance of Wind Turbine Generators from MONTE CARLO SIMULATION of Wind Speed
Be a wind energy and power generation expert.
Follow the methodology and explanation below. Get hold of the advanced tools too, namely:
1) Wind energy resource monitoring (from wind anemometer measurements and data logger or wind map and resource providers such as 3-TIER, NREL, etc.)
2) Monte Carlo Simulation of wind speed (wind speed = average wind speed +/- standard deviation)
3) Annual power generation using power curve of wind turbine model and calculation of capacity factor
4) Overnight capital cost per kW of major wind turbine manufacturers
5) Project finance modeling (deterministic and stochastic with Monte Carlo Simulation) More »