Energy Technology Expert

Philippine Oil Pump Price Bulletin 3: 22 April 2009

Philippine Oil Pump Price Bulletin 3 : 22 April 2009

This is the 3rd issue of this weekly oil pump price bulletin. It is being issued to provide pricing forecast for low sulfur diesel LSD (0.05% Sulfur) and unleaded gasoline 93 RON. Please refer to the previous Bulletin 1 dated 15 April 2009 for 93 RON and Bulletin 2 dated 17 April 2009 for the pump price of LSD.

This bulletin predicted a similar upward price adjustment in unleaded 93 RON gasoline of 0.6710 PhP/liter which is similar to the 0.50 PhP/liter upward adjustment announced by Shell and Petron this day of 22 April 2009. For low sulfur diesel (0.05% sulfur), a very small downward adjustment of 0.0894 PhP/liter was predicted by this bulletin. This approximates the announcement that no adjustments will be made on diesel.

Basic Information (from Philippine Star, 22 April 2009)

Exchange Rate = 48.46 PhP/$ (April 22) vs 47.66 PhP/$ (April 15)

1 US gallon = 3.7854 liters

1 barrel of oil = 42 US gallons = 42 * 3.7854 = 158.9868 liters

Dubai Crude = 49.27 $/bbl (April 14, 2009 – Philippine Star)

Singapore Posted Price, $ per barrel:

Diesel = $62.08 (April 10-21 ave) vs $62.32 (April 6-9 ave)

Mogas = $63.74 (April 10-21 ave) vs $62.09 (April 6-9 ave)

Example for Unleaded 93 RON Gasoline:

To reflect production cost, a factor of 1.134 to 1.176 is applied on crude cost. However, the reader is advised to use actual posted price.

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How to Get Out of this Global Economic Meltdown – a suggested approach

How to Get Out of this Global Financial Meltdown – a suggested approach

Oil Crisis, US Recession and Global Financial Meltdown

As early as 2007, signs of economic recession have been observed throughout the world. By end December 2007, the international price of crude oil went past $100 per barrel. Continued speculation in the world markets as well as increased demand pushed the price to its maximum of $147 per barrel by July 2008.

From then on, it was a roller coaster ride and the price of crude oil dropped to $40-50 per barrel as off April 2009. US Banks and financial institutions began to request for US government bailout, some were allowed to fail, and the big US insurers and banks that were considered too big to fail were recipients of bailout funds from the outgoing Bush administration.

With the onset of the new Obama administration, the US legislature together with the US executive passed fiscal stimulus package to address and hopefully arrest the continued global financial meltdown that also ravaged Europe and major industrial economies in Asia.

Some Countries Were Spared. Why?
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Philippine Oil Pump Price Bulletin 2 : 17 April 2009

Philippine Oil Pump Price Bulletin 2 : 17 April 2009

This is the 2nd issue of this weekly oil pump price bulletin. It is being issued to provide pricing forecast for unleaded 93 RON gasoline. Please refer to the previous Bulletin 1 dated 15 April 2009 for the pump price of LSD (low sulfur diesel).

Basic Information

Exchange Rate = 47.66 PhP/$ (April 15, 2009 – Philippine Star)

1 US gallon = 3.7854 liters

1 barrel of oil = 42 US gallons = 42 * 3.7854 = 158.9868 liters

Dubai Crude = 49.27 $/bbl (April 14, 2009 – Philippine Star)

Example for Unleaded 93 RON Gasoline:

To reflect production cost, a factor of 1.134 to 1.176 is applied on crude cost. However, the reader is advised to use actual posted price (e.g. MOPS).

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Philippine Oil Pump Price Bulletin 1 : 15 April 2009

Philippine Oil Pump Price Bulletin 1 : April 15, 2009

Introduction

The worldwide phenomenon of frequent rise and fall of the international price of crude oil and its roller-coaster effect on the domestic price of petroleum products have brought about the need for a transparent and predictable price adjustment mechanism in order to protect the overall interest of the consuming public, petroleum dealers, oil refiners, importers and marketers of oil-based products.

During period of supply and price stability, the international price of crude oil and finished products is fully reflected in domestic pump prices with all the participants in the supply chain (importers, insurers, refiners, marketers, shippers, haulers and dealers) receiving their fair share of logistics costs and margins, and the government likewise receiving mandated customs duties, specific taxes, wharfage fee, BOE fee, value added tax (VAT) on imported oil and added services.

However during extra-ordinary events such as supply restraints by OPEC, conflicts and tensions in the Middle East and major oil suppliers, speculations in oil futures and commodity exchanges, steep currency depreciation, and stringent environmental requirements, the international price of crude oil and petroleum products suddenly rise and consequently the oil majors and minor industry players naturally raise prices to reflect the cost of new deliveries to replenish working capital, albeit moderated somewhat by stocks bought at previously lower prices and market competition.

Problem of Price Adjustments

Consequently, the problem arise when the international price of crude oil and petroleum products drop significantly following an oil price “spike”. End consumers and lobby groups naturally demand for significant one-time oil price adjustment to fully reflect the drop in the international price of crude oil and petroleum products.

The oil company and minor players are accused of dilly dallying price reductions in contrast with their speedy upward price adjustments. This observation is indeed unfortunate but very popular but a careful analysis reveals that in the same manner that prices were adjusted upwards gradually below international prices, the converse is likewise true that prices are adjusted downwards gradually but higher than international prices in order that upfront under-recoveries are liquidated via delayed over-recoveries.

Hence, the main determinant of equality is for the average international price to be reflected in the average domestic pump price for a defined period, after fully reflecting all the cost factors to bring the product to our country’s shores and after reasonable margin for the upkeep of the oil companies. In this way, there is neither under-recovery nor over-recovery on the part of the oil companies.

Objective of the Philippine Oil Pump Price Bulletin weekly service

The primary objective of this Philippine Oil Pump Price Bulletin is to provide weekly pump price updates given the prevailing past week average or start of the week Peso per US$ exchange rate, Dubai Crude marker $ per barrel, prevailing average petroleum product prices in Singapore, currently in force customs duties, specific taxes, value added tax on oil import, and other supply chain costs such as insurance, freight, oil company margin, dealer’s margin, transshipment & hauling and local value added tax.

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Energy Technology Expert – my expertise and services

Where to Get Assistance for Energy & Electricity Investment Opportunities in the Philippines

Marcial Ocampo provides a blog on issues and concerns regarding current and future fuel cycles and power generation technologies as they affect the environment, fuel supplies and power generation capacities, efficiency of utilization of fuel or energy resource, pollution & greenhouse gas emissions, and cost of power (overnight capital cost $/kW) and energy (levelized $/kWh).

He provides market, technical and economic feasibility studies and prepares project finance models for determining asset value (bid price), levelized price of energy or electricity, or equity returns (DCF IRR).

He is also familiar with investment opportunities in the Philippine energy and electricity sector (Philippine Energy Plan, Power Development Plan) and the regulatory framework (EPIRA and RE laws,  implementing rules and regulations, Distribution Code, Grid Code) for purchasing a power plant from PSALM/NPC or for putting up a new power plant (conventional, fossil or renewable).

He can guide you in securing incentives under the latest Philippine Renewable Energy (RE) law and its implementing rules and regulations (IRR).

In addition, he could guide you in securing the needed endorsement from the Philippine Department of Energy (DOE), permits and licenses from the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) and other government agencies (DTI, SEC, BIR, DENR, EMB, NWRB, PNRI, DOLE, NTC, BOC, PPA, ATO, PDEA, BOI, NCIP and LGUs) in order that the facility is duly licensed to operate as a power generation facility with an electricity tariff that is the “best new entrant” for the given location and application in order to balance the need of the customers for affordable electricity and the need of the investor to meet its investment return criteria.

Should you need assistance in preparing a project finance model and a feasibility study (market, technical, economic, financial) using Philippine oil, energy and electricity data, please don’t hesitate to contact Marcial.

email:    mars_ocampo@yahoo.com   and   energydataexpert@gmail.com

tel/fax: (632)-932-5530 More »

“Is the Oil Price Right?”

Are Domestic Oil Pump Prices Transparent and Reasonable?

Introduction

The worldwide phenomenon of frequent rise and fall of the international price of crude oil and its roller-coaster effect on the domestic price of petroleum products have brought about the need for a transparent and predictable price adjustment mechanism in order to protect the overall interest of the consuming public, petroleum dealers, oil refiners, importers and marketers of oil-based products.

During period of supply and price stability, the international price of crude oil and finished products is fully reflected in domestic pump prices with all the participants in the supply chain (importers, insurers, refiners, marketers, shippers, haulers and dealers) receiving their fair share of logistics costs and margins, and the government likewise receiving mandated customs duties, specific taxes, wharfage fee, BOE fee, value added tax (VAT) on imported oil and added services. More »

Shall We Go Nuclear?

Shall We Go Nuclear?

Oil Crisis of 2008

The recent oil crisis which saw the rise of crude oil prices to a peak of $147 per barrel in the world market and its attendant effect on raising electricity prices in the Philippines at a rate higher than its competitor economies in the region has brought forth renewed calls to review policies relative to the development of the Philippine Nuclear Industry.

Revive the 600 MW BNPP?

In particular, attention has been directed toward reviving the mothballed 600 MW Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) constructed by the National Power Corporation in the early 1980’s. In its desire to be part of the growing list of nuclear power generation nations in the world, the Philippines implemented a national agenda that included the construction of the 600 MW BNPP in tandem with the 300 MW Kalayaan Pumped Storage Hydro Plant in 1982. The pumped storage would serve as a dummy load of the nuclear plant during off-peak periods at night in order to allow for a constant and stable generation of 600 MW of nuclear power throughout the entire day. (In the absence of the “cheap” nuclear electricity, the Laguna Lake water is pumped uphill to Lake Caliraya at night using geothermal, coal and sometimes expensive oil-based electricity in order to have adequate baseload capacity during day-time peak hours.)

Numerous Issues Hounded the BNPP

Unfortunately, or for reasons only Providence could imagine, the BNPP has been hounded with controversy ranging from allegations of overprice and corruption in the construction of the power plant, unsafe plant location being near an inactive volcano (Mt. Natib), being located near an active fault, possible long-term environmental harm to the nearby residents and Luzon populace in the event of accidental release of radio active gases and materials arising from a nuclear accident, unsafe plant design (pressurized water reactor or PWR), expensive electricity arising from its high cost per kW due to overprice (one 600 MW plant for the cost of two 600 MW plants as originally conceived), and of course, how to economically and safely dispose of the spent nuclear fuel material, radioactive control rods and other materials exposed to high levels of radiation.

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Fuel & Energy Technology Expert is Here

Fuel & Energy Technology Expert is Here

Marcial Ocampo, your favorite energy technology expert, is here to provide you latest information on:

1) energy and oil prices (international and domestic pump price calculation)

2) renewable energy and non-renewable energy and electricity

3) cost of power generation – capital and O&M cost

4) levelized cost of energy and electricity

5) Philippine energy and electricity demand and supply

6) project finance and financial modeling

7) power plant efficiency and performance

8) project feasibility studies for biofuels and power plant (market, technical, economic and financial)

Examples of Power Generation Technologies in commercial use are as follows:

Oil – Gas Thermal

Reciprocating / Piston Engine:

Small or High-Speed
Medium Speed
Large or Slow Speed
Combined Cycle – Waste Heat Boiler

Natural Gas – Simple GT:

Aero-Derivative GT
With Recuperation
Humid Air Turbine (HAT)
Cascaded Humid Air Turbine (CHAT)
Heavy Frame GT

Natural Gas – Combined Cycle GT

Coal:

Pulverized Coal PC
Atmospheric CFB
Pressurized FBC
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle IGCC
Integrated Gasification Humid Air Turbine IGHAT
Direct Coal-Fired Combined Cycle DCCC
Supercritical & Ultra-Supercritical Coal Comb.

Nuclear Fission:

Boiling Water Reactor (BWR), advanced
Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)
Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR)
Advanced Gas-Cooled Reactor (AGR):
- Candu Reactor
High Temp. Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR)
Gas Turbine Modular Helium Reactor (GT-MHR)
Breeder Reactors

Nuclear Fusion

Hydro:

Large:
- Pelton Turbine – 50-6,000 ft head
- Francis Turbine – 10-2,000 ft head
- Propeller Turbine – 10 – 300 ft head:
- Kaplan Turbine
Small / Mini
Micro

Energy Storage:

Pumped Hydro
Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) – Huntorf:
- Large CAES
- Small CAES
- Above Ground CAES
Flywheel Systems
Utility Scale Batteries (USB):
- Lead acid
- Advanced
Stored Hydrogen
Superconduction Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES)
Ultracapacitors

Geothermal:

Dry Steam (Vapor)
Flashed Steam (Single, Double)
Binary Cycle
Petrothermal (Hot Dry Rock)
Geothermal Preheat
Fossil Superheat

Wind

Solar PV:

Crystalline silicon
Thin film – Amorphous Silicon
Thin film – Indium Diselenide
Flat Plate
High Efficiency Multi Junction (IHCPV)

Solar Thermal:
Trough
Tower
Dish
Salt Pond (power + water)

Fuel Cells:

Alkaline (AFC)
Phosphoric Acid (PAFC)
Proton Exchange Membrane  (PEM)
Direct Methanol (DMFC)
Molten Carbonate (MCFC)
Solid Oxide-GT  (SOFC-GT)

Biomass:

Direct Combustion
Co-firing with Coal
Biomass Gasification (BIGCC)
Municipal Waste Treatment
Pyrolysis

Fermentation
Landfill Gas (40 – 60% CH4)
Anaerobic Digestion Biogas (65% CH4)
Sewage Treatment

Ocean Thermal:

Claude (open cycle)
Controlled Flash Evaporation (open)
Anderson (closed cycle)

Ocean Wave:

Oscillating Water Column (OWC)
Hydraulic Accumulator
High Level Reservoir
Float or Pitching Devices
Wave Surge or Focusing (“tapchan”)
Pendulor

Tidal Power:

Single Pool
Modulated Single Pool w/ Pumped Hydro
Two Pool

Additional technologies provided by readers of this blog:

Waste Heat Recovery: (from Alan Belcher’s comments)

Steam Rankine Cycle (Recycled Energy Development, Inc.)

Organic Rankine Cycle (Ormat Technologies, Inc.)*

Low Temperature Brayton Cycle (Pegasus Energy Project, Inc.)