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Philippine Energy Data Analytics Service Provider – from your energy technology expert

April 25th, 2014 Posted in energy data analytics

Philippine Energy Data Analytics Service Provider  – from your energy technology expert

You might be interested to look into the latest power supply and demand outlook (forecast 2014-2020) from the DOE.

It includes the existing 2011 installed capacity, plus constructed 2012-2013, plus committed 2014-2016 projects, then forecast peak demand, total reserves, total supply available.

Aside from the committed, there is also a list of indicative projects as well as future capacity additions for base load, mid-merit and peak load from the power development plan of DOE (from their optimized expansion planning modelling exercise).

This could be added to the supply curve to anticipate future supply/demand imbalances or capacity deficits.

Normally, the private sector will address the future capacity additions proposed by the DOE power development plan and implement them thru committed projects as well as indicative projects in the drawing  board.

Adding the indicative projects to the committed projects (with financial close and starting with permitting, construction, site preparation, procurement, etc.) will be a forecast of future supply availability which is then compared to peak demand plus reserve requirement (total supply required for a secure power supply that can withstand power plant breakdown of the largest unit). Reserve requirement is 4% of peak demand + largest capacity for spinning reserve and back-up power.

This could help your company/investor prioritize which grid (Luzon, Visayas or Mindanao) should your company propose to invest in new power generation capacity and what type (baseload, mid-merit, peaking) and technology (conventional, fossil, renewable) and fuel/energy type (oil, coal, natural gas, hydro, geothermal, biomass, solar, wind, ocean thermal), as well as configuration and capacity (e.g. 2 x 100, 200, 2 x 150, 300, 2 x 300, 600, etc.) is optimal for the given power demand profile, plant capital and operating cost, technology efficiency and fuel cost and fuel supply, environmental and social engineering issues.

Right now, I have the following information on the Philippine energy, oil, coal, gas and power industry, energy conservation and energy efficiency, fuel substitution, power plant emission and GHG emission among others:

Annex A:  ANNUAL TARGETS

Energy Demand and Supply Outlook:

A.1.1              Overall Energy Balance

A.1.2               Oil Demand by Sector

A.1.3a             Oil Demand by Product (Reference Case)

A.1.3b             Oil Demand by Product (Low carbon Scenario)

A.1.4               Natural Gas Demand Outlook

A.1.5               Coal Demand Outlook

A.1.6               Biodiesel Demand

A.1.7               Bioethanol Demand

A.1.8               Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Bus Target

A.1.9               Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Taxi Target

A.1.10             Auto-LPG Taxi Target

A.1.11             E-Vehicle Target

Energy Resource Development Outlook:

A.1.12             Oil and Gas Sector Targets

A.1.13             Coal Sector Targets

A.1.14             Geothermal Sector Targets

A.1.15             Hydropower Sector Targets

A.1.16             Wind Sector Targets

A.1.17             Biomass Sector Targets

A.1.18             Solar Sector Targets

A.1.19             List of Potential Renewable Energy (RE) Resources

Energy Efficiency Outlook:

A.1.20 Potential Cumulative Savings from Energy Efficiency Programs

Power Demand and Supply Outlook:

A.1.21             Cumulative Installed Capacity (in MW)

A.1.22             System Peak Demand, Main Grid (in MW)

A.1.23             System Peak Demand, Small Island Grids (in MW)

A.1.24             Electricity Sales Forecast (in GWh)

A.1.25             Committed Power Projects

A.1.26             Indicative Power Projects

A.1.27             Capacity Additions, Main Grid (in MW)

A.1.28             Capacity Additions, Small Island Grids (in MW)

A.1.29             Power Generation Forecast (in GWh)

A.1.30             TDP Projects – ERC Approved

A.1.31             TDP Projects – New Projects Third Regulatory Period (2011-2015)

A.1.32             TDP Projects – Projects Fourth Regulatory Period (2016-2020)

Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Avoidance:

A.1.33             Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions from Energy (In Million Metric Tons)

Investment Requirements:

A.1.34 Annual Investment Requirements by Sector

A.1.35 Oil and Gas Investment Requirements

A.1.36 Geothermal Investment Requirements

A.1.37 Hydropower Investment Requirements

A.1.38 Biomass Investment Requirements

A.1.39 Wind Investment Requirements

A.1.40 Solar Investment Requirements

A.1.41 Ocean Energy Investment Requirements

A.1.42 CNG Investment Requirements

A.1.43 Auto-LPG Investment Requirements

A.1.44 E-Vehicles Investment Requirements

A.1.45 Bioethanol Investment Requirements

A.1.46 Biodiesel Investment Requirements

A.1.47 Power Generation Investment Requirements

A.1.48 Natural Gas Industry Investment Requirements

Annex B:  HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE

B.1      Energy Mix (In Million Barrels of Fuel Oil Equivalent, MMBFOE and MTOE)

B.2      Oil and Gas Sector Highlights

B.3      Geothermal Sector Highlights

B.4      Coal Sector Highlights

B.5      Hydropower Sector Highlights

B.6      Petroleum Products Consumption (In Thousand Barrels, MB)

B.7a    Oil Demand by Sector (In Thousand Barrels, MB)

B.7b    Oil Demand by Product (In Thousand Barrels, MB)

B.8      Coal Consumption by Sector (In Metric Tons, MT)

B.9      Coal Importation by Source (In Metric Tons, MT)

B.10    Installed Generating Capacity (In Megawatt, MW)

B.11    Power Generation by Source (In Gigawatt-Hour, GWh)

B.12    Electrification Profile

B.13    Energy Economy Indicators

 

Also, I have the copy of the Philippine Energy Plan (PEP 2012-2030).

I have some information on local Refinery expansion plans.

I have some information on local refineries and import terminals.

I have the refinery linear programming (LP) model for
optimizing crude oil/product imports, refinery operation, production
of oil products as well as national tankage by product by oil company
(storage capacity of depots) by region/location.

I have a simple LP model of a hydroskiming refinery.

I also have sales/demand of petroleum products by oil company by region/location.

I have the recent cost structure of importing crude oil and importing
finished products since I have been monitoring and developing the oil
pump price calculation formula.

I may be reached at energydataexpert@gmail.com for more information on how to get the raw data and perform the necessary data analytics to determine energy and power growth rates, percentile distribution, fuel substitution trends and remaining lifetimes of various fossil fuels.

Thanks for availing of our Philippine energy data analytics service.

 

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