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Biomass Direct Combustion (steam boiler + turbine) Project Finance Models (Deterministic and Stochastic)

January 4th, 2018 Posted in financial models

Biomass Direct Combustion (steam boiler + turbine) Project Finance Models (Deterministic and Stochastic)

Your energy technology selection expert is pleased to announce that deterministic (fixed inputs) and stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) are now available for all power generation technologies (renewable energy such as biomass, solar PV and CSP, wind, mini-hydro, ocean thermal and ocean tidal/current, and conventional energy such as large hydro, geothermal, and fossil energy such as oil diesel and oil thermal, natural gas simple cycle and combined cycle, coal thermal and clean coal technologies, nuclear energy, and energy storage and waste heat recovery and combined heat and power technologies).

In the case of biomass direct combustion (steam boiler + turbine), the following samples may be purchased at 50% discount.

You may download the following samples to try the advanced features of using fixed inputs and random inputs in order to manage your project risks:

Deterministic (fixed inputs) model: (USD 700):

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo) – in PHP

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo) (USD)

Stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) model (USD 1400):

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) – in PHP

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

Before you can run the MCS model, you need to download first the Monte Carlo Simulation add-in and run it before running the above MCS model:

MonteCarlito_v1_10

The model inputs consist of the fixed inputs (independent variables) plus a random component as shown below (based on +/- 10% range, which you can edit in the Sensitivity worksheet):

1) Plant availability factor (% of time) = 94.52% x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

2) Fuel heating value (GHV) = 5,198 Btu/lb x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

3) Plant capacity per unit = 12.00 MW/unit x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

4) Variable O&M cost (at 5.26 $/MWh) = 30.05 $000/MW/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

5) Fixed O&M cost (at 105.63 $/kW/year) = 1,227.64 $000/unit/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

6) Fixed G&A cost = 10.00 $000/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

7) Cost of fuel = 1.299 PHP/kg x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

8) Plant heat rate = 12,186 Btu/kWh x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

9) Exchange rate = 43.00 PHP/USD x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

10) Capital cost = 1,935 $/kW x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

The dependent variables that will be simulated using Monte Carlo Simulation and which a distribution curve (when you make bold font the number of random trials) may be generated are as follows:

1) Equity Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 30% equity, 70% debt

2) Project Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 100% equity, 0% debt

3) Net Profit After Tax

4) Pre-Tax WACC

5) Electricity Tariff (Feed-in-Tariff)

The models are in Philippine Pesos (PHP) and may be converted to any foreign currency by inputting the appropriate exchange rate (e.g. 1 USD = 1.0000 USD; 1 USD = 50.000 PHP, 1 USD = 3.800 MYR, etc.). Then do a global replacement in all worksheets of ‘PHP’ with ‘XXX’, where ‘XXX’ is the foreign currency of the model.

To purchase, email me at:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

You may pay using PayPal:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

or via bank/wire transfer:

====================

1) Name of Bank Branch & Address:

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)

Pasig Ortigas Branch

G/F Benpres Building, Exchange Road corner Meralco Avenue

Ortigas Center, PASIG CITY 1605

METRO MANILA, PHILIPPINES

2) Account Name:

Marcial T. Ocampo

3) Account Number:

Current Account = 0205-5062-41

4) SWIFT ID Number = BOPIPHMM

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Once I confirm with PayPal or with my BPI current account that the payment has been made, I will then email you the real (un-locked) model to replace the demo model you have downloaded.

Hurry and order now, this offer is only good until January 31, 2018.

Regards,

Your Energy Technology Selection and Project Finance Expert

 

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