How to Optimize Power Plant Design and Configuration (technology, capacity, efficiency, location)
How to Optimize Power Plant Design and Configuration (technology, capacity, efficiency, location) – see download file for input data
Optimizing the overall project concept during the plant feasibility study and detailed engineering study is a common problem faced by project developers and EPC contractors. The question commonly asked by project owners from project developers and designers are:
(1) What engine/manufacturer should be considered (e.g. Siemens, Westinghouse, General Electric, Mitsubishi, Alstom, etc)?
(2) What is the minimum or optimal plant capacity given the range of power and energy demand (too low a capacity will not meet break even, too high a capacity will result in unutilized surplus capacity without corresponding benefits since it is demand limited)
(3) What is the maximum plant heat rate (or minimum thermal efficiency) given the type of fuel used (coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, biomass, hydro, wind, solar) needed so that the utilization of expensive fuel given the cost of the technology will still result in an electricity tariff that is competitive without the need of subsidy?
(4) What is the optimum overhaul cycle (too frequent overhauls may not be justified by the overhaul cost and foregone energy and power sales, while long intervals between overhauls may result in deteriorating efficiency leading to higher fuel consumption, excessive down times leading to lower plant reliability and lower power and energy sales)?
(5) What is the optimum plant location considering the cost of the cooling system (once thru sea water, once thru lake water, river water cooling tower, deep well water cooling tower, radiator cooling) and cost of pumping energy, cost of the transmission system (type of T/L, length of wire, type of conductor) and the cost of lost energy, and delivered cost of the primary and backup fuels (piped natural gas and oils, delivery by barges or tank trucks)?
(6) What is the minimum level of non-refundable subsidy (no interest, no principal repayment) or maximum interest of debt (loan interest with principal repayment) needed to attain reasonable investor returns (as minimum equity DCR IRR).
(7) What is the minimum price of carbon emission reduction (CER) certificates (the model has an initial value of US$5.00 per metric ton of CO2 equivalent) so that including CDM will result in attaining minimum investor returns.
(8) In rural electrification, it is often required by the electricity regulator (ERC) that the project proponent has determined the “best new entrant” power generation technology in order that subsidies, if so required, are as minimum as possible. This means the proponent has analyzed various power generation technologies suchs as diesel engines, renewable energy sources (biomass, mini-hydro, wind, solar, biogas) and hybrid combinations thereof with diesels for stable 24/7 electricity service.
(9) Lastly, when upon doing all possible ways of optimizing each system and determining the “best new entrant”, yet the resulting tariff is still higher than the average of the national or regional grid, then a feed-in tariff (FIT) mechanism is applied by the electricity regulator in order that the said renewable energy resource is able to operate efficiently and recover its costs and reasonable profit expected by any power investor. It has been concluded that without the FIT mechanism, renewable energy sources will never be able to compete and penetrate the grid since by its very nature (expensive, intermittent), it is generally more expensive than conventional fuels such as coal, oils, nuclear and large hydro.
Based on the author’s experience in conducting sensitivity analysis, the most significant variables affecting the economic returns of a project (as DCF IRR) are: electricity tariff at the given location/market, cost of delivered fuel, all-in project cost, plant heat rate (efficiency), O&M costs, degradation rates (capacity and heat rate), cost of capital (minimum hurdle rate for equity investments, cost of debt or bank loan), and equity structure (% equity, % subsidy, % debt).
As you have carefully guessed, the author has indeed developed a project finance model with built-in carbon emission reduction credit cash flows under the CDM of the Kyoto Protocol.
The user inputs will clearly show the extent of how the author has considered all the above variables into a robust and unified project finance model that allows sensitivity runs in order to determine what combination will result in the optimal design concept. Optimal conditions are achieved when the DCF IRR is maximum, or the electricity tariff is minimum, or the all-in project cost is minimum, or the delivered fuel cost is minimum.
Thru a series of macros that vary each combination and pasting the results in a table for future comparison, the designer will be able to optimize the design concept in a breeze thru the click of the computer mouse!
For more information, you may write the author your specific concerns and needs:
Marcial T. Ocampo
email mars_ocampo@yahoo.com
web www.energytechnologyexpert.com
http://ph.linkedin.com/in/ocampomarcial
================= sample model inputs for optimizing power plant design and configuration
DATA INPUTS
| Instructions for Running this Project Finance Model (by Marcial T. Ocampo) |
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1200 MW Simple Cycle GT (24 units x 50 MW each) |
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| Enter the required data starting from the first step to the last step, then converge the model by pressing ctrl + d |
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| 0) |
0 |
Include Carbon Emission Credits (CDM) |
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Blue cells are input fields for updating |
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These cells are case switches |
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| 1) |
2 |
Define the NPV and return IRR to be used (1-4). |
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0 |
NPV-ROI | return on investment (100% equity, 0% debt) – project cost versus cash flow (need to set equity to 0%) |
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1 |
NPV-ROE | return on equity (say 30% equity, 70% debt) – equity portion of project cost versus cash flow (default) |
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0 |
NPV-FC | return on equity (say 30% equity, 70% debt) – equity portion of project cost versus dividends flow (no depreciation) |
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0 |
NPV-FC discounted | return on equity (say 30% equity, 70% debt) – equity portion of project cost versus discounted dividends flow (depreciating currency) |
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| 2) |
25 |
Define the operating period (25 to 30 years) for the CCGT. | This model is for 25 years but user may insert additional columns or delete columns to match period with project life. |
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2009 |
Define the end of construction period (year 0). | It assumes everything has been constructed and finished at the end of this year (0) and will operate on following year (1). |
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| 3) |
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If you need to insert columns (increase operating period from 25 to say 30 years), place cursor at cell AA1 |
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in both Main and Reports worksheet, then highlight to the right the number of columns to add, then insert columns. |
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Then copy the entire column range (AA10 .. AA615) in Main worksheet (the model sheet) up to the 2nd to the last column (say year 29) |
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Then copy the entire column range (AA1 .. AA277) in Reports worksheet (the report sheet) up to the 2nd to the last column (say year 29) |
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Be careful in copying the columns. You must preserve the overhaul cycle for the overhaul and regular maintenance activities (rows 34 to 35) of Main worksheet. |
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Define overhaul cycle and capacity degradation |
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1.00% |
Normal, % p.a. | normal degradation rate |
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-4.00% |
Overhaul, % p.a. | degradation recovered after overhaul |
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5 |
Overhaul Cycle, yr | overhaul cycle |
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80.00% |
Recovery, % | fraction of normal degradation recovered during overhaul |
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6 |
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per unit |
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1 |
Select engine model & manufacturer (1-6) |
MW gross |
own use(1) |
MW net |
Heat Rate, kJ / kWh |
Efficiency, % |
Cost, $/kW |
Variable O&M |
Fixed O&M |
MW gross |
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1 |
Simple Gas Turbine Aero Derivative |
1,200.000 |
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1,200.000 |
9,474 |
38.00% |
325 |
0.005 |
0.040 |
50.000 |
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0 |
Recuperated GT |
3.200 |
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3.200 |
8,889 |
40.50% |
400 |
0.005 |
0.040 |
3.200 |
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CHAT 11 MW |
11.000 |
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11.000 |
8,090 |
44.50% |
800 |
0.005 |
0.040 |
11.000 |
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0 |
CHAT 300 MW |
300.000 |
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300.000 |
6,581 |
54.70% |
375 |
0.005 |
0.040 |
300.000 |
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0 |
Heavy Frame GT |
200.000 |
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200.000 |
10,286 |
35.00% |
560 |
0.005 |
0.040 |
200.000 |
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0 |
Other models, etc. |
250.000 |
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250.000 |
9286 |
38.77% |
660 |
0.005 |
0.040 |
250.000 |
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Used |
Simple Gas Turbine Aero Derivative |
1,200.000 |
0.000 |
1,200.000 |
9,474 |
38.00% |
325.00 |
0.00500 |
0.040 |
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(1) Own use is mainly condenser cooling pumping power |
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| 6) |
1 |
Select plant location / method of cooling of condenser (1-5) |
Length, m |
Head, m |
Temp rise, deg C |
Flow, m3/hr |
kW Power(2) |
% of Gross Power |
Cost, $(3) |
cooling medium flow rate | |
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1 |
Once thru sea water |
2,000.00 |
31.50 |
3.00 |
292,349 |
20,075.62 |
1.673% |
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sea water (m3/hr) |
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Once thru lake water |
400.00 |
15.00 |
3.00 |
292,349 |
9,559.82 |
0.797% |
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lake water (m3/hr) |
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0 |
River water cooling tower |
2,000.00 |
30.00 |
10.00 |
87,705 |
5,735.89 |
0.478% |
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river water (m3/hr) |
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0 |
Deep well water cooling tower |
1,000.00 |
60.00 |
10.00 |
87,705 |
11,471.78 |
0.956% |
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deep well (m3/hr) |
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0 |
Radiator cooling |
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13.00 |
173,482 |
7,837.50 |
0.653% |
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ambient air (MT/hr) |
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Used |
Once thru sea water |
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20,075.62 |
1.673% |
0 |
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(2) Power = 9.81 x (Q/3600) x H x 80% | (3) Cost estimate of piping, pump, treatment, etc. |
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Once thru cooling (sea water, lake water) |
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1,200.000 |
MWh / h |
800.000 |
Heat to Boiler (2/3) since (1/3) goes to gas turbine |
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2,105 |
MWh / h |
38.0% |
Overall Fuel to Electricity Efficiency |
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fuel to electricity |
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2,105,263 |
kWh / h |
1,000 |
kWh / MWh |
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7,578,947,368 |
kJ / h |
3,600 |
kJ / kWh |
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7,183,427,832 |
BTU / h |
1.05506 |
kJ / BTU |
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Energy input from fuel |
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6,105,913,657 |
BTU / h |
85% |
Boiler Efficiency |
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Energy to steam |
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1,077,514,175 |
BTU / h |
15% |
Heat Losses to Atmosphere |
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Energy to atmosphere & losses |
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6,105,913,657 |
BTU / h |
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Energy input to steam turbine |
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2,442,365,463 |
BTU / h |
40% |
Rankin Steam Turbine Efficiency |
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Energy to drive shaft |
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3,663,548,194 |
BTU / h |
60% |
Heat Losses to Condenser |
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Energy to condenser / cooling tower |
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2,442,365,463 |
BTU / h |
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Energy input to drive shaft |
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2,369,582,972 |
BTU / h |
97% |
Mechanical Drive (99%) & Generator Efficiency (98%) | Energy to electricity |
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72,782,491 |
BTU / h |
3% |
Heat Losses to Generator |
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Energy to generator losses |
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3,663,548,194 |
BTU / h |
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Energy input to condenser / cooling tower |
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3,480,370,785 |
BTU / h |
95% |
Heat transferred to cooling water |
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Energy to cooling water |
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183,177,410 |
BTU / h |
5% |
Heat Losses to Atmosphere |
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Energy to atmosphere & losses |
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3.0 |
Allowable temperature Rise, deg C |
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Water allowable temperature rise |
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1.8 |
deg F per deg C rise |
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5.4 |
Allowable temperature Rise, deg F |
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1.00 |
Specific heat of lake water, Btu / lb deg F | Water specific heat |
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644,513,108 |
lb / h |
5.4 |
Allowable Btu / lb |
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292,349,228 |
kg / h |
2.2046 |
lb / kg |
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292,349 |
cum / h |
1,000 |
kg / cubic meter (kg / cum) |
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Cooling Water |
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| 8) |
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Water cooling tower (river water, deep well) |
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1,200.000 |
MWh / h |
800.000 |
Heat to Boiler (2/3) since (1/3) goes to gas turbine |
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2,105 |
MWh / h |
38.0% |
Overall Fuel to Electricity Efficiency |
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fuel to electricity |
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2,105,263 |
kWh / h |
1,000 |
kWh / MWh |
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7,578,947,368 |
kJ / h |
3,600 |
kJ / kWh |
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7,183,427,832 |
BTU / h |
1.05506 |
kJ / BTU |
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Energy input from fuel |
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6,105,913,657 |
BTU / h |
85% |
Boiler Efficiency |
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Energy to steam |
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1,077,514,175 |
BTU / h |
15% |
Heat Losses to Atmosphere |
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Energy to atmosphere & losses |
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6,105,913,657 |
BTU / h |
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Energy input to steam turbine |
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2,442,365,463 |
BTU / h |
40% |
Rankin Steam Turbine Efficiency |
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Energy to drive shaft |
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3,663,548,194 |
BTU / h |
60% |
Heat Losses to Condenser |
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Energy to condenser / cooling tower |
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2,442,365,463 |
BTU / h |
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Energy input to drive shaft |
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2,369,582,972 |
BTU / h |
97% |
Mechanical Drive (99%) & Generator Efficiency (98%) | Energy to electricity |
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72,782,491 |
BTU / h |
3% |
Heat Losses to Generator |
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Energy to generator losses |
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3,663,548,194 |
BTU / h |
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Energy input to condenser / cooling tower |
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3,480,370,785 |
BTU / h |
95% |
Heat transferred to cooling water |
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Energy to cooling water |
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183,177,410 |
BTU / h |
5% |
Heat Losses to Atmosphere |
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Energy to atmosphere & losses |
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10.0 |
Allowable temperature Rise, deg C |
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Water allowable temperature rise |
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1.8 |
deg F per deg C rise |
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18 |
Allowable temperature Rise, deg F |
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1.00 |
Specific heat of lake water, Btu / lb deg F | Water specific heat |
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193,353,932 |
lb / h |
18 |
Allowable Btu / lb |
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87,704,768 |
kg / h |
2.2046 |
lb / kg |
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87,705 |
cum / h |
1,000 |
kg / cubic meter (kg / cum) |
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Cooling Water |
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| 9) |
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Radiator cooling (ambient air) |
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1,200.000 |
MWh / h |
800.000 |
Heat to Boiler (2/3) since (1/3) goes to gas turbine |
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2,105 |
MWh / h |
38.0% |
Overall Fuel to Electricity Efficiency |
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fuel to electricity |
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2,105,263 |
kWh / h |
1,000 |
kWh / MWh |
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7,578,947,368 |
kJ / h |
3,600 |
kJ / kWh |
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7,183,427,832 |
BTU / h |
1.05506 |
kJ / BTU |
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Energy input from fuel |
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6,105,913,657 |
BTU / h |
85% |
Boiler Efficiency |
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Energy to steam |
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1,077,514,175 |
BTU / h |
15% |
Heat Losses to Atmosphere |
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Energy to atmosphere & losses |
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6,105,913,657 |
BTU / h |
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Energy input to steam turbine |
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2,442,365,463 |
BTU / h |
40% |
Rankin Steam Turbine Efficiency |
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Energy to drive shaft |
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3,663,548,194 |
BTU / h |
60% |
Heat Losses to Condenser |
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Energy to condenser / cooling tower |
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2,442,365,463 |
BTU / h |
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Energy input to drive shaft |
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2,369,582,972 |
BTU / h |
97% |
Mechanical Drive (99%) & Generator Efficiency (98%) | Energy to electricity |
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72,782,491 |
BTU / h |
3% |
Heat Losses to Generator |
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Energy to generator losses |
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3,663,548,194 |
BTU / h |
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Energy input to condenser / cooling tower |
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3,480,370,785 |
BTU / h |
95% |
Heat transferred to cooling air |
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Energy to cooling water |
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183,177,410 |
BTU / h |
5% |
Heat Losses to Atmosphere |
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Energy to atmosphere & losses |
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13.0 |
Allowable temperature Rise, deg C (10 TO 16) | Allowable ambient air temperature rise |
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1.8 |
deg F per deg C rise |
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23.4 |
Allowable temperature Rise, deg F |
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0.389 |
Specific heat of air, Btu / lb deg F = 7/18 | Ambient Air specific heat |
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382,458,328 |
lb / h |
9.1 |
Allowable Btu / lb |
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173,481,960 |
kg / h |
2.2046 |
lb / kg |
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173,482 |
MT / h |
1,000 |
kg / MT |
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Cooling Ambient Air |
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| 10) |
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Define overhaul, maintenance, shutdown and outages |
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28 |
Planned Overhaul, days (4 wks) |
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14 |
Regular Maintenance, days (2 wks) |
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0.10% |
Economic S/D, % of CD |
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0.50% |
Deactivated S/D – External, % of CD |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.00% |
Forced Outage – Internal, % of CD |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
95.00% |
Load Factor, % of DC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 11) |
|
Define overhaul cycle and heat rate degradation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.00% |
Normal, % p.a. | normal degradation rate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-4.00% |
Overhaul, % p.a. | degradation recovered after overhaul |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
5 |
Overhaul Cycle, yr | overhaul cycle |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
80.00% |
Recovery, % | fraction of normal degradation recovered during overhaul |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12) |
|
Define transmission line (T/L) system and cost |
|
Sea water |
Lake water |
River Water |
Deep Well |
Radiator |
Selected |
|
|
|
|
|
Line Voltage |
kV |
230 |
230 |
230 |
230 |
230 |
230 |
|
|
|
|
|
Power |
kW |
1,200,000 |
1,200,000 |
1,200,000 |
1,200,000 |
1,200,000 |
1,200,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
Length |
km |
20.00 |
10.00 |
15.00 |
15.00 |
25.00 |
20.00 |
1.609 |
km / mile |
|
|
|
Power Factor |
lag |
0.85 |
0.85 |
0.85 |
0.85 |
0.85 |
0.85 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cost per kilometer of T/L |
$/km |
$360,000 |
$396,000 |
$432,000 |
$432,000 |
$324,000 |
$360,000 |
|
|
|
|
4 |
Conductor type (1-4) |
|
Seaside City |
Lakeside City |
Riverside City |
Riverside City |
Inland City |
|
|
|
|
|
|
ACSR (MCM) |
|
% T/L Loss |
% T/L Loss |
% T/L Loss |
% T/L Loss |
% T/L Loss |
Selected |
|
|
|
|
1 |
ACSR (MCM) 336 |
|
11.814% |
5.907% |
8.861% |
8.861% |
14.768% |
11.814% |
|
|
|
|
2 |
ACSR (MCM) 795 |
|
5.654% |
2.827% |
4.240% |
4.240% |
7.067% |
5.654% |
|
|
|
|
|
AAC (MCM) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.000% |
|
|
|
|
3 |
AAC (MCM) 336 |
|
11.539% |
5.770% |
8.655% |
8.655% |
14.424% |
11.539% |
|
|
|
|
4 |
AAC (MCM) 789 |
|
4.914% |
2.457% |
3.686% |
3.686% |
6.143% |
4.914% |
|
|
|
|
Used |
AAC (MCM) 789 |
|
4.914% |
2.457% |
3.686% |
3.686% |
6.143% |
4.914% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 13) |
|
Define other power losses |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.00% |
Step-up Transformer Loss (Switchyard), MWh |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00% |
Other Losses (non-technical, pilferage), MWh |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 14) |
|
Define fuel properties |
GHV, Btu/lb |
NHV, Btu/lb |
GHV / NHV |
kg / Liter |
Btu/liter |
Reference |
$/MMBtu |
PhP / liter 2009 |
|
|
|
95.00% |
Natural Gas (Malampaya Gas) – main fuel |
22,129 |
20,249 |
1.093 |
2009 |
$GJ |
8.628 |
9.10 |
418.11 |
PhP/GJ |
|
|
5.00% |
Diesel Oil – backup fuel (gas pipeline downtime) |
19,650 |
18,453 |
1.065 |
0.8448 |
36,597 |
46.44 |
16.92 |
30.00 |
PhP/liter |
|
|
4.00% |
Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LSFO – 1% S) – boiler fuel |
18,400 |
17,449 |
1.055 |
0.9659 |
39,181 |
35.97 |
12.24 |
23.24 |
PhP/liter |
|
|
1.00% |
Bunker Fuel Oil (BFO – 3% S) – boiler fuel |
19,670 |
18,565 |
1.060 |
0.8916 |
38,664 |
34.84 |
12.01 |
22.51 |
PhP/liter |
|
|
|
Lube Oil |
|
|
|
0.8500 |
|
232.00 |
|
149.87 |
PhP/liter |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.2046 |
lb/kg |
|
1.05506 |
kJ/Btu |
|
| 15) |
|
Lube Oil Consumption |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.00% |
Normal, % p.a. | normal degradation rate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-4.00% |
Overhaul, % p.a. | degradation recovered after overhaul |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
5 |
Overhaul Cycle, yr | overhaul cycle |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
80.00% |
Recovery, % | fraction of normal degradation recovered during overhaul |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
0.254 |
Ideal Lube Oil Consumption, g/kWh |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 16) |
0 |
Escalate fuel, lubes, tariff and O&M costs? (1=yes, 0=no) |
Used |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.00% |
Natural Gas (Malampaya Gas) – main fuel |
0.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.50% |
Diesel Oil – backup fuel (gas pipeline downtime) |
0.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.50% |
Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LSFO – 1% S) – boiler fuel |
0.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.00% |
Bunker Fuel Oil (BFO – 3% S) – boiler fuel |
0.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.00% |
Lube Oil |
0.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 17) |
|
Escalation rates for tariff and O&M costs |
Used |
|
(e.g. US) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.00% |
Annual increase of the tariff, % p.a. |
0.00% |
Foreign (US) |
US CPI |
Local (RP) |
RP CPI |
% of operating income | Calculated | Paul Breeze | |
|
|
3.25% |
Purchase of chemical materials |
0.00% |
70.00% |
2.50% |
30.00% |
5.00% |
1.66% |
variable O&M |
|
|
|
|
3.25% |
Utilities (electricity, water) |
0.00% |
70.00% |
2.50% |
30.00% |
5.00% |
1.66% |
variable O&M |
0.00500 |
0.00500 |
|
|
4.25% |
Maintenance of the installation |
0.00% |
30.00% |
2.50% |
70.00% |
5.00% |
1.20% |
fixed O&M |
|
|
|
|
4.25% |
Personnel expense |
0.00% |
30.00% |
2.50% |
70.00% |
5.00% |
1.21% |
fixed O&M |
|
|
|
|
4.25% |
Land lease, rent |
0.00% |
30.00% |
2.50% |
70.00% |
5.00% |
1.20% |
fixed O&M |
|
|
|
|
4.25% |
Other services |
0.00% |
30.00% |
2.50% |
70.00% |
5.00% |
1.20% |
fixed O&M |
0.0400 |
0.0400 |
|
|
5.00% |
Taxes, Insurances, Benefits & Regulatory Costs |
0.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 18) |
|
Define electricity sales & revenues |
Factor |
Adjustment |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
70.00% |
Electricity sales to DU, MWh |
1.000 |
0.00% |
discount price to direct customers (e.g. -10%) |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
20.00% |
Electricity sales to NPC, MWh |
1.000 |
0.00% |
reference price to national grid (e.g. 0%) |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
10.00% |
Electricity sales to WESM, MWh |
1.000 |
0.00% |
wholesale spot market price (e.g. +15%) |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
100.00% |
Total must add to 100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 19) |
|
Define working capital for initial project cost (months) |
$/year |
Working Capital |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
Total Fuel Costs |
39,760,887 |
0 |
no working capital for natural gas fuel (could not be stored) |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
1 |
Expenses from lube purchase |
404,243 |
33,687 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
Purchase of chemical materials |
833,882 |
69,490 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
Utilities (electricity, water) |
833,882 |
69,490 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
DOE 1-04 (0.01 PhP/kWh sold) |
84,294 |
7,024 |
0.01 |
DOE 1-94 impost per kWh sold |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
Maintenance of the installation |
602,806 |
50,234 |
48.46 |
PhP/US$ exchange rate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
Personnel expense |
607,830 |
50,652 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
Land lease, rent |
602,806 |
50,234 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
Other services |
602,806 |
50,234 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total working capital |
44,333,436 |
381,046 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 20) |
|
Define corporate income tax rate and income tax holiday |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
30% |
Corporate income tax rate (% of taxable income) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
Income tax holiday (ITH), years |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 21) |
|
Expenses not eligible for income tax deduction |
|
|
sample data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00% |
Profit Sharing | of income after tax |
5.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
Social Benefit Fund – Host Community | per month |
|
10,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 22) |
|
Calculation of Working Capital Needs (WCN) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.00 |
Cash needed for operations (+) | months of expenses |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.00 |
Customers / Receivables (+) | months of revenue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.00 |
Stocks / Inventory (+) | months of fuel & chemicals |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.00 |
Suppliers / Payables (-) | months of payables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 23) |
|
Estimate all-in capital cost |
|
|
|
000 PhP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Initial investment in land (US$/ha), 1 ha = 10,000 m2 |
100,000.00 |
10 |
ha |
1,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
325.00 |
Freight on Board = FOB USA = $/kW |
15,749.50 |
1,200.000 |
MW |
18,899,400 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5% |
Ocean Freight = FRT = 5% x FOB |
2% |
|
|
377,988 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1% |
Insurance = INS = 1% x FOB |
1% |
|
|
188,994 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cargo, Insurance & Freight = CIF = FOB + FRT + INS |
|
|
|
19,466,382 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12% |
Value Added Tax = VAT = 12% x CIF |
0% |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3% |
Customs Duty = (CIF + VAT) x (% Duty) x (1 + % VAT) |
0% |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Duty-Paid Landed Cost = DPLC = CIF + VAT + Duty |
|
|
|
19,466,382 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3% |
Local Freight Cost = LFC = 3% x CIF |
1% |
|
|
194,664 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Delivered Cost at Site = DCS = DPLC + LFC |
|
|
|
19,661,046 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5% |
Installation Cost = IC = 5% x FOB |
2% |
|
|
377,988 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Condenser Cooling System |
0 |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Transmission Line, PhP per km and km length |
17,445,600 |
20.00 |
km |
348,912 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total EPC = DCS + IC+ CCS + T/L |
|
|
|
20,387,946 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10% |
Contingency (10%) = EPC x 10% |
0% |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1% |
Documentary Stamps (1%) = EPC x 1% = DS |
0% |
|
|
– |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Fixed Assets (EPC + Contingency + DS) |
|
|
|
20,387,946 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.00% |
Depreciation term (years) |
salvage |
10.00% |
733,966 |
25 |
20,388,946 |
000 US$ |
000 PhP |
Developer/Modeler/Arranger Fees | |
|
|
1.00% |
Development costs (developer, modeler) |
|
2.00% |
|
407,779 |
|
$4,207 |
203,889 |
developer (1%) Robert Jimenez | |
|
|
12.00% |
Other Costs including taxes, contingencies |
|
0.00% |
|
- |
|
$4,207 |
203,889 |
modeler (1%) Marcial Ocampo | |
|
|
|
Carbon Emission Registration & Consultancy |
|
|
|
- |
|
$11,338 |
549,435 |
arranger (2%) Juan dela Cruz | |
|
|
|
Initial investment in capitalized expenses |
|
|
|
7,082,825 |
407,779 |
$19,753 |
957,214 |
Total developer/modeler/arranger | |
|
|
10.00% |
Amortization term (years) |
salvage |
10.00% |
254,982 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Working Capital: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Working capital (adjustments for DSCR = 1.1) |
|
1.000 |
|
6,294,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Working capital (initial stocks – fuel) – 2 months |
|
|
|
– |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Working capital (initial stocks – lubes) – 2 months |
|
|
|
33,687 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Working capital (initial stocks – chemical materials) – 2 months |
|
|
69,490 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Working capital (mobilization – utilities) – 2 months |
|
|
|
69,490 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Working capital (mobilization – DOE 1-94) – 2 months |
|
|
|
7,024 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Working capital (mobilization – maintenance) – 2 months |
|
|
|
50,234 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Working capital (mobilization – personnel expense) – 2 months |
|
|
50,652 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Working capital (pre-paid expense – advance rent) – 2 months |
|
|
50,234 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Working capital (pre-paid expense – other services) – 2 months |
|
6,675,046 |
50,234 |
27,471,771 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest During Construction: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.00% |
Dev’t fees (loan arranger) |
|
1.00% |
|
274,718 |
|
Year -2 |
Year -1 |
Year 0 |
Construction period |
|
|
1.00% |
Front end fees (loan arranger) |
|
1.00% |
|
274,718 |
|
33.0% |
33.0% |
34.0% |
drawdown rate |
|
|
0.50% |
Commitment fees (bank) |
|
0.50% |
|
138,732 |
|
9,065,684 |
9,065,684 |
9,340,402 |
annual drawdown |
|
|
12.00% |
Interest During Construction (bank) – 36 months |
3.00 |
6.00% |
|
3,280,129 |
3,968,297 |
9,065,684 |
18,131,369 |
27,471,771 |
cumulative drawdown |
|
|
10.00% |
Amortization term (years) |
salvage |
10.00% |
142,859 |
25 |
|
92,030 |
46,702 |
0 |
fee on undrawn amount |
|
|
Capital |
Total Investment (land, fixed, capitalized expenses, working capital) |
|
|
31,440,068 |
31,440,068 |
543,941 |
1,087,882 |
1,648,306 |
interest on cumulative drawdown | |
|
|
|
|
|
$/kW |
541 |
648,784 |
US$ |
|
|
|
|
| 24) |
|
Taxes, Insurances, Benefits & Regulatory Costs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real Property Tax – Land |
1.60% |
of land |
|
NOTE: Differentiate between one time, cyclic (every 2 or 5 years) and recurring (annual) |
|
||||
|
|
|
Real Property Tax – PPE |
1.60% |
of fixed assets |
|
and vary the formula in the Main worksheet accordingly. |
|
|
|||
|
|
|
Real Property Tax – Buildings |
0.80% |
of building |
|
For simplicity in this model, they are assumed to be annual fees to be conservative. |
|
||||
|
|
|
Land Lease & ROW |
0.00 |
US$/MT coal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Property Insurance – PPE |
0.78% |
of fixed assets |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Property Insurance – Building |
0.78% |
of building |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Business Interruption Insurance |
0.56% |
of previous year’s revenue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
of Capital |
Special Education Fund – benefits to host community |
1.00% |
of land |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.277% |
SEC Registration & Fees |
87,088.99 |
Securities & Exchange Commission (certificate of registration) |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
BIR Registration & Fees |
530.00 |
Bureau of Internal Revenue (registration of TIN, VAT) |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
0.007% |
DENR Permits & Fees |
2,200.80 |
Department of Environment & Natural Resources (EIS, ECC) |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
Discharge Fee (BOD, TSS) – DENR |
0.00 |
water pollution discharge permit (4 wastes at 600 each) |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
0.028% |
EMB Permits & Fees |
8,803.22 |
Environment Management Bureau (air quality) |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
NWRB Permits & Fees |
17,416.50 |
National Water Resources Board (water use permit) |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
PNRI Permits & Fees |
5,900.00 |
Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (radioactive material license) |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
ERC Registration & Fess |
1,500.00 |
Energy Regulatory Commission (certificate of compliance, authority to operate) |
|
|
|
||||
|
|
0.015% |
DOLE Permits & Fees |
4,716.01 |
Department of Labor & Employment (permit to operate pressurized vessels) |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
DTI Permits & Fees |
0.00 |
Department of Trade & Industry (registration of business name, with SEC now for corporation) |
|
|
|
||||
|
|
0.142% |
LGU Registration & Fees |
44,644.90 |
Local government units (barangay, municipal, provincial, regional) |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
0.002% |
NTC Registration & Fees |
628.80 |
National Telecommunication Commission (radio station permit) |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
BOC Registration & Fees |
5,000.00 |
Bureau of Customs (accreditation and registration) |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
PPA Registration & Fees |
1,000.00 |
Philippine Port Authority (permit to operate shore line facilities) |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
ATO Registration & Fees |
13,050.00 |
Air Transportation Office (height clearance permit for smoke stack) |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
PDEA Registration & Fees |
3,000.00 |
Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (essential chemicals commodity permit) |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
BOI Registration & Fees |
4,500.00 |
Board of Investment (certificate of registration) |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
DOE Permits & Fees |
800.00 |
Department of Energy (authority to import, certificate of registration) |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
Local Business Taxes (1/2 of 1% of GR) |
0.00% |
of gross revenue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National Franchise Taxes (1/2 of 1% of GR) |
0.00% |
of gross revenue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Taxes, Insurances, Benefits & Regulatory Costs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 25) |
|
Cost of debt (loan interest) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.00% |
Reference interest rate (Libor or other) |
12 |
loan term |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.00% |
Spread |
3.00 |
grace period (construction period) |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
6.00% |
Interest rate of debt |
1 |
loan amortization method (1 = constant principal repayment, 0 = declining balance method) |
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 26) |
|
Capital Structure (equity & debt) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15.00% |
% to be financed by capital |
30.00% |
Equity IRR |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00% |
% to be financed by non refundable subsidy |
0.00% |
Subsidy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.00% |
% to be financed by debt |
70.00% |
Debt Interest |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Initial amount of capital |
8.70% |
WACC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 27) |
|
Debt Service Reserve Fund |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
months of debt service |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.00% |
DSRF Income -interest on Foreign Currency Deposit |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.50% |
Withholding Tax on Foreign Currency Deposit |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.30% |
DSRF Expense – withholding tax |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 28) |
|
Equity Structure (shareholder contribution) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
planned |
Annual dividend payable |
actual |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
60.00% |
Investor 1 |
89.12% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20.00% |
Investor 2 |
0.26% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20.00% |
Investor 3 |
10.62% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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| 29) |
|
Your done. Now converge the model by pressing ctrl + d |
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| 30) |
|
Press ctrl + g to optimize CCGT engine and plant location |
|
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| 31) |
|
Press ctrl + r to update Summary Table |
|
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| 32) |
|
Press ctrl + q to update Sensitivity Table |
|
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| 33) |
|
Vary electricity tariff and see impact on NPV, IRR and payback. |
|
|
Go to Main worksheet |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
(impact of electricity tariff) |
|
|
|
Update cell E5 (electricity tariff, $/kWh) |
|
|
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|
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View results for NPV, IRR and payback (cells F6..H9) |
|
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||
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Press ctrl + r to preserve Summary Table |
|
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|
| 34) |
|
Determine capital cost given electricity tariff, fuel cost and O&M cost to meet IRR. |
|
Go to Main worksheet |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
(impact of capital cost) – maximum capital cost to meet minimum IRR |
|
|
Update cell E5 (electricity tariff, $/kWh) |
|
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||
|
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|
|
|
Go to Sensitivity worksheet |
|
|
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|
|
Use goal seek to determine capital cost to meet IRR: |
|
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|
||
|
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|
|
Set cell C16 (NPV) to zero by varying cell B9 (sensitivity factor for capital cost) |
|
|
|||
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|
|
Press ctrl + r to preserve Summary Table |
|
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|
| 35) |
|
Determine main fuel cost (pipeline natgas) given electricity tariff, capital cost and O&M cost to meet IRR. | Go to Main worksheet |
|
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|
||||
|
|
|
(impact of main fuel cost) – maximum fuel cost to meet minimum IRR |
|
|
Update cell E5 (electricity tariff, $/kWh) |
|
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|
||
|
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|
|
Go to Sensitivity worksheet |
|
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|
|
Use goal seek to determine capital cost to meet IRR: |
|
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|
||
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|
|
Set cell C16 (NPV) to zero by varying cell B8 (sensitivity factor for main fuel cost) |
|
|
|||
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|
Press ctrl + r to preserve Summary Table |
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| 36) |
|
Determine rated capacity given electricity tariff, capital cost and O&M cost to meet IRR. |
|
Go to Main worksheet |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
(impact of rated capacity) – minimum rated capacity to meet minimum IRR |
|
|
Update cell E5 (electricity tariff, $/kWh) |
|
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||
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|
Go to Sensitivity worksheet |
|
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|
|
Use goal seek to determine capital cost to meet IRR: |
|
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|
|
Set cell C16 (NPV) to zero by varying cell B10 (sensitivity factor for rated capacity) |
|
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|||
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|
Press ctrl + r to preserve Summary Table |
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Data inputs for simple cycle GT.doc (copyright 2009 by Marcial T. Ocampo)
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