Project Finance Model for Hybrid Power Plant / Multi-fuel System with CDM
Project Finance Model for Hybrid Power Plant / Multi-fuel System with CDM
During implementation of a project feasibility study for a natural gas pipeline that will serve an anchor load 250-500 mw natural gas-fired combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), it was felt that additional market for the excess Malampaya natural gas (300 mw surplus plus banked gas for sale) needs to be developed to improve the economics of the pipeline.
Doing a market, technical and feasibility study for this end-use conversion economics will thus entail developing a robust project finance model that is versatile enought to handle conversion of existing power generation and steam/process heat technologies (coal fired, bunker fired, diesel fired diesel electric generators, steam and process heat equipment, refrigeration) to natural gas firing.
The author, an energy technology and business development consultant, has prepared an Incremental Economics Conversion Model for comparing a base case (existing coal-fired or oil fired generation, process heat, refrigeration and air conditioning equipment) versus a more energy efficient, less polluting and cheaper to operate natural gas-fired equipment.
Naturally, there will be incremental investments and incremental savings due to higher efficiency, cheaper fuel cost, lower environmental costs.
In addition, if the project will result in higher energy conversion efficiency or lower carbon emission due to fuel switching (from a high carbon content coal or liquid fuels like diesel and bunker to a lower carbon/higher hydrogen fuel such as natural gas), there will be additional cash flows from carbon emission reduction certificates.
Please contact the author for more details.
Marcial Ocampo
email mars_ocampo@yahoo.com
———————– sample model rows and columns
| PROJECT FINANCE MODEL – Diesel Fueled-Engine (Main 1) |
|
|
Name | HYBRID POWER PLANTS | ||
| INCREMENTAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODEL (hybrid, multi-fuel, fuel switching) |
|
|
(C) Copyright 2009 by Marcial T. Ocampo (November 2009) | |||
| INSTRUCTIONS |
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|
|
| (This example is in PhP Thousand, except for the unit prices which are in PhP/kWh) |
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||
| Year 0 reflects the starting assumptions, which will be applicable starting in year 1. |
9.8773 |
NPV |
IRR |
Payback |
||
| Blue cells must be filled out by the user. |
|
NPV-ROI |
0 |
(909,234) |
2.22% |
11.69 |
| Escalate fuel, lubes, tariff and O&M costs? (1=yes, 0=no) |
0 |
NPV-ROE |
1 |
0 |
15.00% |
10.41 |
| CALCULATION OF GROSS OPERATING MARGIN |
|
NPV-FC |
0 |
(232,470) |
3.79% |
11.18 |
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
| Year |
|
used |
0.00 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
| Days Per Year |
|
|
|
365 |
365 |
365 |
| Hours Per Day |
24 |
|
|
24 |
24 |
24 |
| Plant Operation |
365 |
|
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
| Overhaul Cycle |
|
|
|
0 |
1 |
2 |
| Capacity Degradation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Normal, % p.a. |
1.00% |
|
|
1.0000 |
1.0100 |
1.0201 |
| Overhaul, % p.a. |
-4.00% |
|
|
|
1.00% |
1.00% |
| Overhaul Cycle, yr |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Recovery, % |
80.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Select Manufacturer/Engine Model: |
MW |
Heat Rate, Btu / kWh |
Efficiency, % |
EPC Cost, $/kW |
Variable O&M |
Fixed O&M |
| Biomass Landfill Methane Engine Power Plant |
30.000 |
9,873 |
34.56% |
1500 |
0.00187 |
0.242 |
| Diesel Oil Engine Power Plant |
50.000 |
8,976 |
38.02% |
1300 |
0.00500 |
0.040 |
| Coal Thermal Plant |
600.000 |
11,860 |
28.77% |
1079 |
0.00325 |
0.225 |
| Bunker Oil Thermal Plant |
300.000 |
10,781 |
31.65% |
991 |
0.00500 |
0.300 |
| Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Cogen Plant |
500.000 |
4,262 |
80.06% |
650 |
0.00200 |
0.150 |
| Natural Gas Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Plant |
500.000 |
6,262 |
54.49% |
650 |
0.00200 |
0.150 |
| Diesel Oil Engine Power Plant |
50.000 |
8,976 |
40.11% |
1,300.00 |
0.00500 |
0.040 |
| (1) Own use is mainly condenser cooling pumping power |
1.396 |
|
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|
|
|
| Plant Rated Capacity, MW |
48.604 |
|
|
|
48.604 |
48.604 |
| Dependable Capacity, MW |
|
|
|
|
48.123 |
47.647 |
| Plant Availability |
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|
|
|
|
| Calendar Days |
365.25 |
|
|
|
365 |
365 |
| Total Period Hours |
24 |
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|
8760 |
8760 |
| Planned Overhaul, days (3 wks) |
21 |
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| Regular Maintenance, days (1 wks) |
7 |
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|
7 |
7 |
| Economic S/D, % of CD |
0.30% |
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|
1.10 |
1.10 |
| Deactivated S/D – External, % of CD |
0.50% |
|
|
|
1.83 |
1.83 |
| Total Unforced Outage, days |
|
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|
|
9.92 |
9.92 |
| Forced Outage – Internal, % of CD |
5.00% |
|
|
|
18.25 |
18.25 |
| Total Outage, days |
30.52 |
|
|
|
28.17 |
28.17 |
| Total Operating Hours |
8,034 |
|
|
|
8,084 |
8,084 |
| Plant Statistics |
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|
| Outage Rate = FO*24/ (FO*24+TOH) |
5.17% |
|
|
|
5.14% |
5.14% |
| Availability = TOH/PH |
91.64% |
|
|
|
92.28% |
92.28% |
| Equivalent Availability |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
92.11% |
91.19% |
| Reliability = 1-OR |
94.83% |
|
|
|
94.86% |
94.86% |
| Generation and Capacity Factor |
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|
|
|
|
| Load Factor, % of DC |
95.00% |
|
1.100 |
biomass |
95.00% |
95.00% |
| Potential Generation = DC*LF*TOH | MWh |
4,377,272 |
1.000 |
diesel |
369,573 |
365,914 |
| Rated Generation = RC*PH | MWh |
5,112,804 |
coal |
1.100 |
425,775 |
425,775 |
| Capacity Factor = PG / RG |
85.61% |
|
bunker |
1.000 |
86.80% |
85.94% |
| Plant Heat Rate |
1=CCGT |
2=Cogen |
3=Diesel Engine |
4=Thermal |
|
|
| Gas Turbine Output (1 / 3) |
33.33% |
77.00% |
40.00% |
|
|
|
| Steam Turbine Input (2 / 3) |
66.67% |
23.00% |
|
|
|
|
| Boiler Efficiency at 1% cont. BD |
90.00% |
85.00% |
|
90.00% |
|
|
| Steam Turbine Efficiency |
40.00% |
37.00% |
|
37.00% |
|
|
| Mechanical Drive / Clutch Efficiency |
99.00% |
99.00% |
99.00% |
99.00% |
|
|
| Generator Efficiency |
96.00% |
96.00% |
96.00% |
96.00% |
|
|
| Overall Efficiency=(GT+ST*BE*STE)*ME*GE |
54.49% |
80.06% |
38.02% |
31.65% |
40.11% |
|
| Plant Heat Rate at 100% eff. |
3412.12822 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Plant Heat Rate, Btu / kWh = 3412/ OE |
6,262 |
4,262 |
8,976 |
10,781 |
8,507 |
8,507 |
| Heat Rate (Efficiency) Degradation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Normal, % p.a. |
1.00% |
|
|
1.0000 |
1.0100 |
1.0201 |
| Overhaul, % p.a. |
-4.00% |
|
|
|
1.00% |
1.00% |
| Overhaul Cycle, yr |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Recovery, % |
80.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Actual Plant Heat Rate, Btu/kWh |
|
|
|
|
8,592 |
8,678 |
| Actual Overall Efficiency, % of fuel GHV |
|
|
|
|
39.71% |
39.32% |
| Net Electricity Sales, MWh |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Potential Generation |
|
|
|
|
369,573 |
365,914 |
| Step-up Transformer Loss (Switchyard), MWh |
5.00% |
|
|
|
5.00% |
5.00% |
| Generation at Plant Fence |
|
|
|
|
351,095 |
347,618 |
| Transmission Line Losses, MWh |
2.00% |
|
|
|
2.00% |
2.00% |
| Net Electricity Sales to Customer |
|
|
|
|
344,073 |
340,666 |
| Other Losses (non-technical, pilferage), MWh |
0.00% |
|
|
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Electricity sales to the network (MWh) |
|
|
|
|
344,073 |
340,666 |
| Annual increase of the volume, % p.a. |
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
-1.0% |
| Fuel Consumption |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Gross Generation (Potential Generation), MWh |
|
|
|
|
369,573 |
365,914 |
| Plant Heat Rate, Btu/kWh |
|
|
|
|
8,592 |
8,678 |
| Total Energy Input to be supplied by fuel, Million Btu |
|
|
|
|
3,175,439 |
3,175,439 |
| Energy Supplied by each fuel, Million Btu |
GHV, Btu/lb |
NHV, Btu/lb |
GHV / NHV |
|
|
|
| Natural Gas (Malampaya Gas) – cogen, CCGT |
22,129 |
20,249 |
1.093 |
|
0 |
0 |
| Diesel Oil – engine, CCGT |
19,650 |
18,453 |
1.065 |
|
3,016,667 |
3,016,667 |
| Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LSFO – 1% S) – cogen, CCGT |
18,400 |
17,449 |
1.055 |
|
158,772 |
158,772 |
| Bunker Fuel Oil (BFO – 3% S) – thermal, CCGT |
19,670 |
18,565 |
1.060 |
|
0 |
0 |
| Coal (Lignite, Bituminous, Anthracite) – thermal |
10,000 |
9,475 |
1.055 |
|
0 |
0 |
| Biomass Fuel (Bagasse, Woodwaste) – engine |
4,000 |
3,463 |
1.155 |
|
0 |
0 |
| Fuel Quantity |
kg / Liter |
GHV, Btu/Liter |
|
|
|
|
| Natural Gas (Malampaya Gas) – cogen, CCGT |
1.05506 |
kJ / Btu |
GJ (Million kJ) |
|
0 |
0 |
| Diesel Oil – engine, CCGT |
0.8448 |
36,597 |
Million Liters |
|
82.429 |
82.429 |
| Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LSFO – 1% S) – cogen, CCGT |
0.9659 |
39,181 |
Million Liters |
|
4.052 |
4.052 |
| Bunker Fuel Oil (BFO – 3% S) – thermal, CCGT |
0.8916 |
38,664 |
Million Liters |
|
0.000 |
0.000 |
| Coal (Lignite, Bituminous, Anthracite) – thermal |
Btu/kg |
22,046 |
Million kg |
|
0.000 |
0.000 |
| Biomass Fuel (Bagasse, Woodwaste) – engine |
Btu/kg |
8,818 |
Million kg |
|
0.000 |
0.000 |
| Total Million Liters FOE |
|
|
Million Liters FOE |
|
82.130 |
82.130 |
| Specific Fuel Consumption, Liters FOE / kWh |
|
|
|
|
0.222 |
0.224 |
| Unit Fuel Cost |
PhP / Liter 2009 |
Escalation |
2009 |
$ / Million Btu |
|
|
| Natural Gas (Malampaya Gas) – cogen, CCGT |
418.11 |
0.00% |
PhP / GJ |
9.10 |
418.11 |
418.11 |
| Diesel Oil – engine, CCGT |
30.00 |
0.00% |
PhP / Liter |
16.92 |
30.00 |
30.00 |
| Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LSFO – 1% S) – cogen, CCGT |
23.24 |
0.00% |
PhP / Liter |
12.24 |
23.24 |
23.24 |
| Bunker Fuel Oil (BFO – 3% S) – thermal, CCGT |
22.51 |
0.00% |
PhP / Liter |
12.01 |
22.51 |
22.51 |
| Coal (Lignite, Bituminous, Anthracite) – thermal |
4.12 |
0.00% |
PhP / kg |
3.86 |
4.12 |
4.12 |
| Biomass Fuel (Bagasse, Woodwaste) – engine |
2.29 |
0.00% |
PhP / kg |
5.35 |
2.29 |
2.29 |
| Total Fuel Cost, Million PhP |
|
|
|
|
2,567.036 |
2,567.036 |
| Natural Gas (Malampaya Gas) – cogen, CCGT |
|
|
|
|
0.000 |
0.000 |
| Diesel Oil – engine, CCGT |
|
|
|
|
2,472.876 |
2,472.876 |
| Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LSFO – 1% S) – cogen, CCGT |
|
|
|
|
94.159 |
94.159 |
| Bunker Fuel Oil (BFO – 3% S) – thermal, CCGT |
|
|
|
|
0.000 |
0.000 |
| Coal (Lignite, Bituminous, Anthracite) – thermal |
|
|
|
|
0.000 |
0.000 |
| Biomass Fuel (Bagasse, Woodwaste) – engine |
|
|
|
|
0.000 |
0.000 |
| Average fuel cost, PhP/Liter FOE |
31.26 |
|
|
|
31.26 |
31.26 |
| Average fuel cost escalation, % p.a. |
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Lube Oil Consumption |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Normal, % p.a. |
2.00% |
|
|
1.0000 |
1.0200 |
1.0404 |
| Overhaul, % p.a. |
-8.00% |
|
|
|
2.00% |
2.00% |
| Overhaul Cycle, yr |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Recovery, % |
80.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ideal Lube Oil Consumption, g/kWh |
0.254 |
|
|
|
0.254 |
0.254 |
| Actual Lube Oil Consumption, g/kWh |
|
|
|
|
0.259 |
0.264 |
| Lube Oil Consumption, Million Liters |
0.8500 |
kg/Liter |
|
|
0.112 |
0.114 |
| Lube Oil Cost, Million PhP |
149.87 |
0.00% |
|
|
16.849 |
17.016 |
| Average lube oil cost, PhP/Liter |
|
|
|
|
149.871 |
149.871 |
| Average lube oil escalation, % p.a. |
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A) Operating income: ’000 PhP |
365 |
|
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
| Electric tariff for sales to the network (PhP/kWh) |
|
9.8773 |
|
|
9.8773 |
9.8773 |
| Annual increase of the tariff, % p.a. |
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Income from sales to DU, ’000 PhP |
|
|
|
|
2,378,946 |
2,355,392 |
| Electricity sales to DU, MWh |
70.00% |
of sales |
|
|
240,851 |
238,466 |
| Electricity tariff to DU, PhP/kWh |
1.000 |
9.8773 |
discount tariff (direct customers) |
9.8773 |
9.8773 |
|
| Income from sales to NPC, ’000 PhP |
|
|
|
|
679,699 |
672,969 |
| Electricity sales to NPC, MWh |
20.00% |
of sales |
|
|
68,815 |
68,133 |
| Electricity tariff to NPC, PhP/kWh |
1.000 |
9.8773 |
reference tariff (average grid) |
9.8773 |
9.8773 |
|
| Income from sales to WESM, ’000 PhP |
|
|
|
|
339,849 |
336,485 |
| Electricity sales to WESM, MWh |
10.00% |
of sales |
|
|
34,407 |
34,067 |
| Electricity tariff to WESM, PhP/kWh |
1.000 |
9.8773 |
WESM tariff (wholesale spot market) |
9.8773 |
9.8773 |
|
| Income from garbage tipping fee, ’000 PhP |
|
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
| Garbage quantity, Million MT |
|
|
|
|
0.000 |
0.000 |
| Tipping fee, PhP/MT |
100 |
0.00% |
|
|
100.000 |
100.000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| TOTAL OPERATING INCOME |
|
|
|
|
3,398,494 |
3,364,846 |
| Annual increase in Operating Income |
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
-1.0% |
| Total electricity sales to DU, NPC, and WESM, MWh |
|
|
|
|
344,073 |
340,666 |
| Average Electricity Tariff, PhP/kWh |
|
|
|
|
9.8773 |
9.8773 |
| Annual increase in Electricity Tariff |
|
0.00% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| B) Expenses: ’000 PhP |
|
|
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
| Natural Gas (Malampaya Gas) – cogen, CCGT |
|
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
| Diesel Oil – engine, CCGT |
|
|
|
|
2,472,876 |
2,472,876 |
| Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LSFO – 1% S) – cogen, CCGT |
|
|
|
|
94,159 |
94,159 |
| Bunker Fuel Oil (BFO – 3% S) – thermal, CCGT |
|
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
| Coal (Lignite, Bituminous, Anthracite) – thermal |
|
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
| Biomass Fuel (Bagasse, Woodwaste) – engine |
Escalation |
months |
working capital |
|
0 |
0 |
| Total Fuel Costs |
|
2 |
427,839 |
2,567,036 |
2,567,036 |
2,567,036 |
| Annual increase of fuel costs |
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Expenses from lube purchase |
|
2 |
2,808 |
16,849 |
16,849 |
17,016 |
| Purchase of chemical materials |
0.00% |
2 |
2,266 |
13,594 |
13,594 |
13,459 |
| Utilities (electricity, water) |
0.00% |
3 |
2,124 |
8,496 |
8,496 |
8,412 |
| DOE 1-04 (0.01 PhP/kWh sold) |
|
3 |
860 |
3,441 |
3,441 |
3,407 |
| Total Variable O&M |
|
|
8,058 |
|
42,380 |
42,294 |
| Annual increase of variable O&M |
|
0.12% |
|
|
0.0% |
-0.2% |
| Variable O&M, $/kWh |
48.46 |
0.00238 |
|
|
0.00237 |
0.00239 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Maintenance of the installation |
0.00% |
3 |
42,481 |
169,925 |
169,925 |
168,242 |
| Personnel expense |
0.00% |
3 |
33,985 |
135,940 |
135,940 |
134,594 |
| Land lease, rent |
0.00% |
2 |
21,524 |
129,143 |
129,143 |
127,864 |
| Other services |
0.00% |
2 |
16,992 |
101,955 |
101,955 |
100,945 |
| Total Fixed O&M |
|
|
114,982 |
|
536,962 |
531,646 |
| Annual increase of fixed O&M |
|
0.53% |
|
|
0.0% |
-1.0% |
| Fixed O&M, $/kW/year |
48.46 |
0.2250 |
|
|
0.22797 |
0.22572 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Taxes, Insurances, Benefits & Regulatory Costs |
0.00% |
|
0 |
|
8,421 |
25,562 |
| DSRF Expense |
|
0.30% |
0 |
|
292 |
275 |
|
|
|
|
total working capital |
|
|
|
| TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSE |
|
|
550,880 |
|
3,155,091 |
3,166,813 |
| Annual increase |
|
0.16% |
|
|
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| GROSS OPERATING MARGIN |
|
|
|
|
243,403 |
198,033 |
| Annual increase |
|
8.55% |
|
|
|
-18.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PROFIT AND LOSS STATEMENTS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| In ’000 PhP |
|
|
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
| Operating income |
|
|
|
|
3,398,494 |
3,364,846 |
| Operating expense |
|
|
|
|
3,155,091 |
3,166,813 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Operating gross margin |
|
|
|
|
243,403 |
198,033 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| - Depreciation & amortization |
|
|
|
|
95,918 |
95,918 |
| - Interest |
|
|
|
|
103,653 |
92,742 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| NET PROFIT BEFORE TAX |
|
|
|
|
43,833 |
9,374 |
| (Tax rate) and Income Tax Holiday (ITH) years |
30% |
0 |
|
|
30% |
30% |
| - Income tax |
|
|
|
|
13,150 |
2,812 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| NET PROFIT AFTER TAX |
|
|
|
|
30,683 |
6,561 |
| Percentage of increase |
|
|
|
|
|
-78.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| NET CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
| Net profit after tax |
|
|
|
|
30,683 |
6,561 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Addback: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Depreciation & Amortization |
|
|
|
|
95,918 |
95,918 |
| Working Capital |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Salvage Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Add: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| DSRF Income |
4.00% |
DSRF Income |
|
|
3,892 |
3,673 |
| Less: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Principal Repayment |
|
|
|
|
90,923 |
90,923 |
| Profit Sharing |
0.00% |
of income after tax |
|
|
0 |
0 |
| Social Benefit Fund – Host Community |
0 |
per month |
|
|
0 |
0 |
| Add: Carbon Emission Credits (net of monitoring fees) |
0.650 |
0.650 |
kg CO2/kWh |
0.000 |
|
|
| NET CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
39,569 |
15,229 |
| Percentage of increase |
|
|
|
|
|
-61.5% |
| ((0.650 -0.000) kg CO2/ kWh x MWh x 1000 kWh/MWh x MT/1000 kg x $5.00/MT x (100%- 4%) – 1,200 $) x M$/1000$ |
|
|
|
|||
| Total Initial investment |
|
|
|
1,298,905 |
|
|
| Project Cash Flow |
2.22% |
12.90% |
WACC |
-1,298,905 |
39,569 |
15,229 |
|
|
IRR |
NPV |
-909,234 |
-1,298,905 |
34,408 |
11,516 |
|
|
|
check |
-832,997 |
-1,298,905 |
35,048 |
11,948 |
|
|
($737,818.80) |
cumulative |
0 |
-1,298,905 |
-1,259,336 |
-1,244,107 |
|
|
|
project payback |
11.69 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Invested capital |
|
|
30.00% |
389,672 |
|
|
| Equity Cash Flow |
15.00% |
15.00% |
Equity IRR |
-389,672 |
39,569 |
15,229 |
|
|
IRR |
NPV |
0 |
-389,672 |
34,408 |
11,516 |
|
|
|
check |
0 |
-389,672 |
34,408 |
11,516 |
|
|
$0.00 |
cumulative |
0 |
-389,672 |
-350,102 |
-334,873 |
|
|
|
equity payback |
10.41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| CALCULATION OF CASH FLOW FOR DEBT SERVICE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
| Operating gross margin |
|
|
|
|
243,403 |
198,033 |
| - Income tax |
|
|
|
|
13,150 |
2,812 |
| - Increase in working capital needs (WCN) |
|
|
|
|
-131,023 |
-3,397 |
| - Profit Sharing |
|
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
| + DSRF Income |
|
|
|
|
3,892 |
3,673 |
| - Social Benefit Fund |
|
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
| + Carbon Emission Credits |
|
|
|
|
0 |
0 |
| Cash flow available for debt service (CFD) |
|
|
|
|
365,168 |
202,292 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| CALCULATION OF DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE RATIO (DSCR) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
| Cash flow available for debt service (CFD) |
|
|
|
|
365,168 |
202,292 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Annual debt service (DS) |
|
|
|
|
194,576 |
183,665 |
|
|
MIN |
AVE |
MAX |
|
|
|
| DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE RATIO (DSCR) |
0.936 |
1.318 |
1.906 |
|
1.877 |
1.101 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| CALCULATION OF DIVIDENDS PAYABLE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
| Cash flow available for debt service (CFD) |
|
|
|
|
365,168 |
202,292 |
| Annual debt service (DS) |
|
|
|
|
194,576 |
183,665 |
| CF available for dividends (CFDiv = CFD-DS) |
|
|
|
|
170,592 |
18,627 |
| Accumulated CFDiv |
|
|
|
0 |
170,592 |
189,219 |
| Current year profit after tax |
|
|
|
|
30,683 |
6,561 |
| Accumulated profit: limit for dividend payable |
|
|
|
0 |
30,683 |
37,245 |
| Select smaller of accumulated dividends |
|
|
|
|
30,683 |
37,245 |
| Accumulated dividend payable |
|
|
|
0 |
30,683 |
37,245 |
| Annual dividend payable |
|
|
|
|
30,683 |
6,561 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| CALCULATION OF NPV, IRR AND PAY-BACK ACCORDING TO INVESTED CAPITAL AND DIVIDENDS PAYABLE |
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
| Invested capital |
|
|
|
389,672 |
|
|
| Annual dividend payable |
|
|
|
0 |
30,683 |
6,561 |
| Discount rate to be applied for NPV calculation |
|
|
|
15.00% |
15% |
15% |
| Discount factor for this rate |
|
|
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
1.1500 |
1.3225 |
| Discounted dividends |
|
|
|
0 |
26,681 |
4,961 |
| Present value of dividends |
|
|
|
157,201 |
|
|
| NPV of the investment |
|
|
-232,470 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
| Investment schedule |
3.79% |
15.00% |
Equity IRR |
-389,672 |
30,683 |
6,561 |
| IRR of Invested Capital |
IRR |
NPV |
-232,470 |
-389,672 |
26,681 |
4,961 |
|
|
|
check |
-232,470 |
-389,672 |
26,681 |
4,961 |
|
|
($202,148.23) |
cumulative |
0 |
-389,672 |
-358,989 |
-352,427 |
| Pay-back term of invested capital, years |
|
equity payback |
11.18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| BALANCE SHEET ACCOUNTS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Calculation of Working Capital Needs (WCN): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cash needed for operations (+) |
3.00 |
months of expenses |
|
|
79,450 |
78,664 |
| Customers / Receivables (+) |
1.00 |
months of revenue |
|
|
283,208 |
280,404 |
| Stocks / Inventory (+) |
2.00 |
months of fuel & chemicals |
|
432,913 |
432,918 |
|
| Suppliers / Payables (-) |
1.00 |
months of payables |
|
|
235,715 |
235,527 |
| WCN |
16.52% |
% of operating income |
690,880 |
559,857 |
556,459 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| CALCULATION OF DEPRECIATION |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| In ’000 PhP |
|
|
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
| Initial investment in land (PhP/ha), 1 ha = 10,000 m2 |
10,000,000 |
2 |
ha |
20,000 |
|
|
| Freight on Board = FOB USA = $/kW |
3,828 |
50.000 |
MW |
191,417 |
|
|
| Ocean Freight = FRT = 5% x FOB |
5% |
|
|
9,571 |
|
|
| Insurance = INS = 1% x FOB |
1% |
|
|
1,914 |
|
|
| Cargo, Insurance & Freight = CIF = FOB + FRT + INS |
|
|
|
202,902 |
|
|
| Value Added Tax = VAT = 12% x CIF |
12% |
|
|
24,348 |
|
|
| Customs Duty = (CIF + VAT) x (% Duty) x (1 + % VAT) |
3% |
|
|
7,636 |
|
|
| Duty-Paid Landed Cost = DPLC = CIF + VAT + Duty |
|
|
|
234,886 |
|
|
| Local Freight Cost = LFC = 3% x CIF |
3% |
|
|
6,087 |
|
|
| Delivered Cost at Site = DCS = DPLC + LFC |
|
|
|
240,973 |
|
|
| Installation Cost = IC = 5% x FOB |
5% |
|
|
9,571 |
|
|
| Condenser Cooling System |
0 |
|
|
– |
|
|
| Transmission Line, $ per km and km length |
0 |
10.00 |
km |
– |
|
|
| Total EPC = DCS + IC+ CCS + T/L |
|
|
|
250,544 |
|
|
| Contingency (10%) = EPC x 10% |
10% |
|
|
25,054 |
|
|
| Documentary Stamps (1%) = EPC x 1% = DS |
1% |
|
|
2,505 |
|
|
| Total Fixed Assets (EPC + Contingency + DS) |
|
|
|
278,104 |
|
|
| Depreciation term (years) |
salvage |
10.00% |
20,858 |
12 |
298,104 |
|
| Development costs (modeler) |
|
1.00% |
|
2,981 |
|
|
| Other Costs including taxes, contingencies |
|
12.00% |
|
35,772 |
|
|
| Carbon Emission Registration & Consultancy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Initial investment in capitalized expenses |
|
|
|
729,633 |
38,753 |
|
| Amortization term (years) |
salvage |
10.00% |
54,722 |
12 |
|
|
| Working Capital: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Working capital (adjustments for DSCR = 1.1) |
|
1.877 |
|
140,000 |
|
|
| Working capital (initial stocks – fuel) – 2 months |
|
|
|
427,839 |
|
|
| Working capital (initial stocks – lubes) – 2 months |
|
|
|
2,808 |
|
|
| Working capital (initial stocks – chemical materials) – 2 months |
|
|
|
2,266 |
|
|
| Working capital (mobilization – utilities) – 2 months |
|
|
|
2,124 |
|
|
| Working capital (mobilization – DOE 1-94) – 2 months |
|
|
|
860 |
|
|
| Working capital (mobilization – maintenance) – 2 months |
|
|
|
42,481 |
|
|
| Working capital (mobilization – personnel expense) – 2 months |
|
|
|
33,985 |
|
|
| Working capital (pre-paid expense – advance rent) – 2 months |
|
|
21,524 |
|
|
|
| Working capital (pre-paid expense – other services) – 2 months |
|
690,880 |
16,992 |
1,027,737 |
|
|
| Interest During Construction: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Dev’t fees (loan arranger) |
|
1.00% |
|
10,277 |
|
Year -2 |
| Front end fees (loan arranger) |
|
1.00% |
|
10,277 |
|
33.0% |
| Commitment fees (bank) |
|
0.50% |
|
5,190 |
|
339,153 |
| Interest During Construction (bank) – 36 months |
3.00 |
12.00% |
|
245,424 |
271,168 |
339,153 |
| Amortization term (years) |
salvage |
10.00% |
20,338 |
12 |
|
3,443 |
| Total Investment (land, fixed, capitalized expenses, working capital) |
|
|
1,298,905 |
1,298,905 |
40,698 |
|
| checksum |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Depreciation of fixed assets |
|
|
|
|
20,858 |
20,858 |
| Amortization of capitalized expenses (development costs, working capital) |
|
|
|
54,722 |
54,722 |
|
| Amortization of capitalized expenses (IDC) |
|
|
|
|
20,338 |
20,338 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| TOTAL DEPRECIATION & AMORTIZATION EXPENSE |
|
|
|
|
95,918 |
95,918 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Evolution of fixed assets and capitalized expenses |
|
|
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Land (non-depreciable) |
|
|
|
20,000 |
20,000 |
20,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Gross fixed assets (PPE, Building, Civil Works) |
|
|
|
278,104 |
278,104 |
278,104 |
| Accumulated depreciation |
|
|
|
0 |
20,858 |
41,716 |
| Net fixed assets |
|
|
|
278,104 |
257,246 |
236,388 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Gross capitalized expenses (Development Costs, Working Capital) |
|
|
729,633 |
729,633 |
729,633 |
|
| Accumulated amortization |
|
|
|
0 |
54,722 |
109,445 |
| Net capitalized expenses |
|
|
|
729,633 |
674,911 |
620,188 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Gross capitalized interest during construction (IDC) |
|
|
|
271,168 |
271,168 |
271,168 |
| Accumulated amortization |
|
|
|
0 |
20,338 |
40,675 |
| Net capitalized interest during construction (IDC) |
|
|
|
271,168 |
250,831 |
230,493 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total Depreciable Assets (fixed assets, capitalized expenses, IDC) |
|
|
1,278,905 |
1,182,987 |
1,087,069 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Taxes, Insurances, Benefits & Regulatory Costs |
|
|
Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Real Property Tax – Land |
1.60% |
of land |
|
|
320 |
320 |
| Real Property Tax – PPE |
1.60% |
of fixed assets |
|
|
4,116 |
3,782 |
| Real Property Tax – Buildings |
0.80% |
of building |
|
|
|
|
| Land Lease & ROW |
0.00 |
PhP/MT coal |
|
|
|
|
| Property Insurance – PPE |
0.78% |
of fixed assets |
|
|
2,169 |
2,169 |
| Property Insurance – Building |
0.78% |
of building |
|
|
|
|
| Business Interruption Insurance |
0.56% |
of previous year’s revenue |
|
1,557 |
19,032 |
|
| Special Education Fund – benefits to host community |
1.00% |
of land |
|
|
200 |
200 |
| SEC Registration & Fees |
3,598 |
|
|
|
3.60 |
3.60 |
| BIR Registration & Fees |
530 |
|
|
|
0.53 |
0.53 |
| DENR Permits & Fees |
91 |
|
|
|
0.09 |
0.09 |
| Discharge Fee (BOD, TSS) – DENR |
0 |
|
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
| EMB Permits & Fees | ||||||
