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Simplified Project Finance Model for Feed-in Tariff (FiT) Calculation

March 3rd, 2010 Posted in financial models

Simplified Project Finance Model for Feed-in Tariff (FiT) Calculation

I simplified the model to its bare functionality and removed the financial ratios section.

The model now has the barest functionality for the feed-in tariff calculation, namely:

1) Rated capacity and dependable capacity (with degradation)

2) Capacity factor and gross generation

3) Power plant own use, T/L and distribution line losses, net sales

4) Plant heat rate (with degradation), cost of fuel (biomass, co-firing fossil fuels)

5) Electricity tariff and by-products/other revenues

6) Electricity revenue from electricity and by-product sales

7) Target revenue if return on rate base (RORB) method of ERC is used

8) Operating income (select either electricity revenue or target revenue)

9) Operating expenses (fuel, lubes, chemicals/supplies, maintenance, personnel, rent, insurance, services, others)

10) Regulatory costs (special privilege tax, special realty tax, DOE 1-94)

11) Debt service reserve fund (DSFR) expense

12) Total expenses (operating, regulatory, DSFR)

13) Gross margin

14) Depreciation and amortization allowance

15) Loan interest expense

16) Income before tax

17) Income tax rate, income tax holiday and income tax expense

18) Income after tax

19) Addback non-cash flow items (depreciation, amortization, salvage value and working capital at end of life)

20) Cash flow items (DSRF income, loan prinicipal repayment, profit sharing, benefit to host community, carbon emission credits)

21) Net cash flow

22) Project cost vs net cash flow (project NPV, project IRR, project payback)

23) Equity portion of project cost vs net cash flow (equity NPV, equity IRR, equity payback)

24) Cash flow for debt service, debt service and debt service cover ratio (DSCR)

25) Annual dividends flow (free cash flow that is available to shareholders)

26) Equity portion of project cost vs free cash flow (equity NPV, equity IRR, equity payback)

27) Calculation of working capital needs (WCN) – cash for operations, receivables, inventory, payables

28) Calculation of all-in project cost (land, equipment, insurance, transport, customs duty, VAT, building, installation cost, project development, working capital, interest during construction or IDC)

29) Evolution of balance sheet accounts (land, fixed assets, working capital, IDC)

30) Loan amortization table (loan interest, principal repayment)

31) Balance sheet (before and after dividends payment)

32) Calculation of dividends payable to shareholders

33) Statement of cash flows (checks ending cash position with ending cash of balance sheet – they must be equal for the model to be correct and balanced)

34) Levelized selling price (tariff), levelized generation cost and levelized profit margin (similar to income statement, but in levelized form, expressed in PhP/kWh) – this breakdown is needed by the electricity industry regulator (ERC).

Please refer to the snippet of model below.  You may place an order via PayPal by proceeding to ENERGY DATA page of this website, or email me exactly your needs and make payments via bank transfer to my local bank account which I will provide thru email upon receipt of your email order.  Once my PayPal or local bank account has been credited, I will then send you the Excel file containing the project finance model for FiT calculation.

Regards,

MARCIAL T. OCAMPO

Energy Technology & Business Development Consultant

Email: mars_ocampo@yahoo.com

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Web:   www.energytechnologyexpert.com

http://ph.linkedin.com/in/ocampomarcial

—————-SNIPPET OF MODEL

PROJECT FINANCE MODEL : Biomass Direct Combustion Name BIOMASS PLANT Direct Combustion
DCF IRR METHOD (C) Copyright 2009 by Marcial T. Ocampo (November 2009)
INSTRUCTIONS WITH INCENTIVES UNDER RE LAW
(This example is in US$ Thousand, except for the unit prices which are in US$)
Year 0 reflects the starting assumptions, which will be applicable starting in year 1.
Blue cells must be filled out by the user.
1 0 press ctrl + u to converge model
CALCULATION OF GROSS OPERATING MARGIN NPV-Dividends NPV-Equity used IRR years
24 (0.00) 1,426.77 (0.00) 16.00% 7.11
A) Operating income: ‘000 $ 365 days per year Year 0 1 2
2009 2010 2011
Days per year days / year 365 365 365
Hours per day capacity factor 75.00% hours / day 18 18 18
Rated Capacity rated capacity 10.00 MW 10.00 10.00 10.00
Gross Generation MWh 65,700 65,700 65,700
Less: Power Plant Own Use 10.00% MWh 6,570 6,570 6,570
Net Generation MWh 59,130 59,130 59,130
Less: Transmission Line Lose 3.00% MWh 1,774 1,774 1,774
Net Electricity Sales MWh 57,356 57,356 57,356
Plant Heat Rate, Btu/kWh gross 3412.12822 23.00% 14,835 14,835 14,835
Total Heat Input, Million Btu 974,682 974,682 974,682
Cost of Bunker Fuel Oil, PhP/Liter 25.00 0.00% 25.00 25.00 25.00
Cost of Biomass Fuel, PhP/kg 1.20% Btu/kg 0.30 0.30 0.30
Cost of Biomass Fuel, $/Million Btu 4,000 2.2046 8,818 0.72 0.72 0.72
PhP/kWh PhP/$ $/kWh
Electricity tariff for sales to the network (US$/kWh) 8.8477 47.00 0.1882 0.1882 0.1882
Annual increase of the tariff (RP CPI, US CPI, depreciation) 0% 0.00% 0.00% 0.0% 0.0%
Electricity volume of sales to the network (MWh) MWh 57,356 57,356 57,356
Annual increase of the volume 0.0% 0.0%
Income from sales to the network, ‘000 US$ 10,797 10,797
Initial amount of sales of by-products 1, ‘000 US$ 2,240 0
Annual increase of the initial amount 0.0% 0.0%
Income from sales of by-products, ‘000 US$ 0 0
Other operating income from the plant 1, ‘000 US$ 1,680 0
Annual increase of this operating income 0.0% 0.0%
Other operating income, ‘000 US$ 0 0
1 DCF IRR Method – Revenue, ‘000 $ 10,797 10,797
PhP/kWh $/kWh
0 RORB Method – Revenue Target, ‘000 $ 8.8440 0.1882 10,914 10,892
Asset Base, ‘000 $ 33,135 33,135 33,135
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), % p.a. 12.15% 12.15% 12.15%
Asset Base Recovery, ‘000 $ 3.2969 0.0701 4,026 4,026
Generation Cost Recovery, ‘000 $ 4.7754 0.1016 5,947 5,924
Profit Term, $/kWh (you need profit term to have IRR) 0.7716 0.0164 0.0164 0.0164
Escalation, % p.a. 0.0% 0.0%
Profit Term, ‘000 $ 0.7716 0.0164 942 942
Variable O&M Costs: 1,047 1,047
Expenses from biomass purchase 705 705
Purchase of chemical materials 137 137
Utilities (fuel, lubes, electricity, water) 205 205
Fixed O&M Costs: 4,305 4,305
Maintenance of the installation 1,433 1,433
Personnel expense 1,433 1,433
Land lease, rent 860 860
Taxes, Insurance, services, and others 573 573
DSRF Expense 5 5
Regulatory Costs: 594 572
Special Privilege Tax – 2% 108 108
Special Realty Tax – 2.5% 474 452
DOE 1-94 : 0.01 PhP/kWh sales 12 12
TOTAL OPERATING INCOME 8.8440 0.1882 10,797 10,797
Annual increase 0.0%
B) Expenses: ‘000 $ 27,235.55 Year 0 1 2
Price of the biomass (US$/Million Btu) 0.72 0.72 0.72
Annual increase of the price 0.0% 0.0%
Consumption volume of biomass (Million Btu) 974,682 974,682 974,682
Annual increase of the volume 0.0% 0.0%
% of EPC months working capital
$/kWh Expenses from biomass purchase 2 118 705 705 705
0.00520 Purchase of chemical materials 0.502% 2 23 137 137 137
0.00520 Utilities (fuel, lubes, electricity, water) 0.753% 3 51 205 205 205
0.0 Maintenance of the installation 5.263% 3 358 1,433 1,433 1,433
$/kW/yr Personnel expense 5.263% 3 358 1,433 1,433 1,433
0.4300 Land lease, rent 3.158% 1 72 860 860 860
0.4300 Taxes, Insurance, services, and others 2.105% 1 48 573 573 573
0.0 Annual increase of these expenses 17.043% 0.0% 0.0%
Total O&M expenses 4,300 5,347 5,347
DSRF Expense 0.30% 5 5
Special Privilege Tax – 2% 1.00% of Electricity Revenue 108 108
Special Realty Tax – 2.5% 1.50% of Depreciated Project Cost 474 452
DOE 1-94 : 0.01 PhP/kWh sales 0.01 PhP/kWh sales 0.000213 $/kWh 12 12
Total Regulatory Expenses 594 572
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSE 5,947 5,924
Annual increase -0.4%
GROSS OPERATING MARGIN 4,850 4,873
Annual increase 0.5%
PROFIT AND LOSS STATEMENTS
In ‘000 US$ Year 0 1 2
Operating income 10,797 10,797
Operating expense 5,947 5,924
Operating gross margin 4,850 4,873
– Depreciation & amortization 1,489 1,489
– Interest 2,435 2,325
INCOME BEFORE TAX 926 1,059
(Tax rate) and Income Tax Holiday (ITH) years 10% 7 0% 0%
– Income tax 0 0
INCOME AFTER TAX 926 1,059
Percentage of increase 14.4%
NET CASH FLOW
Year 0 1 2
Net profit after tax 926 1,059
Addback:
Depreciation & Amortization 1,489 1,489
Working Capital
Salvage Value
Add:
DSRF Income 4.00% DSRF Income 70 70
Less:
Principal Repayment 1,052 1,163
0 Profit Sharing 0.00% of income after tax 0 0
$0 Social Benefit Fund – Host Community 0 per month 0.00 0.00
$0.00 Add: Carbon Emission Credits (net of monitoring fees) 0.650 0.000 kg CO2/kWh 0.000 0.00 0.00
0.00% NET CASH FLOW 1,432.17 1,454.50
$0 Percentage of increase 1.6%
((0.650 -0.000) kg CO2/ kWh x MWh x 1000 kWh/MWh x MT/1000 kg x $5.00/MT x (100%- 4%) – 1,200 $) x M$/1000$ 4,850 4,873
Total Initial investment 33,135
Project Cash Flow 13.72% 12.15% WACC -33,135 4,850 4,873
IRR NPV -4,003 -33,135 4,181 3,621
check 3,352 -33,135 4,325 3,874
2,988.76 cumulative 0 -33,135 -28,285 -23,412
project payback 6.73
Invested capital 30.00% 9,941
Equity Cash Flow 17.92% 16.00% Equity IRR -9,941 1,432 1,455
IRR NPV 1,427 -9,941 1,235 1,081
check 1,427 -9,941 1,235 1,081
1,229.98 cumulative 0 -9,941 -8,508 -7,054
equity payback 6.62
CALCULATION OF CASH FLOW FOR DEBT SERVICE
Year 0 1 2
Operating gross margin 4,850 4,873
– Income tax 0 0
– Increase in working capital needs (WCN) 591 0
– Profit Sharing 0 0
+ DSRF Income 70 70
– Social Benefit Fund 0 0
+ Carbon Emission Credits 0 0
Cash flow available for debt service (CFD) 4,329 4,942
CALCULATION OF DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE RATIO (DSCR)
Year 0 1 2
Cash flow available for debt service (CFD) 4,329 4,942
Annual debt service (DS) 3,488 3,488
min ave max
DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE RATIO (DSCR) 1.241 1.402 1.456 1.241 1.417
CALCULATION OF DIVIDENDS PAYABLE
Year 0 1 2
Cash flow available for debt service (CFD) 4,329 4,942
Annual debt service (DS) 3,488 3,488
CF available for dividends (CFDiv = CFD-DS) 841 1,455
Accumulated CFDiv 0 841 2,296
Current year profit after tax 926 1,059
Accumulated profit: limit for dividend payable 0 926 1,984
Select smaller accumulated value 841 1,984
Accumulated dividend payable 0 841 1,984
Annual dividend payable 841 1,143
CALCULATION OF NPV, IRR AND PAY-BACK ACCORDING TO INVESTED CAPITAL AND DIVIDENDS PAYABLE
Year 0 1 2
Invested capital 9,941
Annual dividend payable 0 841 1,143
Discount rate to be applied for NPV calculation 16.00% 16% 16%
Discount factor for this rate 1 1.0000 1.1600 1.3456
Discounted dividends 0 725 849
Present value of dividends 9,941
NPV of the investment 0
Year 0 1 2
Investment schedulle 16.00% 16.00% Equity IRR -9,941 841 1,143
IRR of Invested Capital IRR NPV 0 -9,941 725 849
check 0 -9,941 725 849
(0.00) cumulative 0 -9,941 -9,099 -7,956
Pay-back term of invested capital, years equity payback 7.11
BALANCE SHEET ACCOUNTS
Calculation of WCN:
Cash needed for operations (+) 3.000 months of expenses 7.37% 768 768
Receivables (+) 1.000 months of revenue 8.33% 900 900
Stocks (+) 2.000 months of fuel & chemicals 1.30% 140 140
Suppliers(-) 1.000 months of payables 1.76% 190 190
WCN 15.25% % of operating income 1,028 1,618 1,618
CALCULATION OF DEPRECIATION
47.00 In ‘000 US$ 1 ha = 10,000 m2 Year 0 1 2
$4 Initial investment in land $2,128 20 43
Freight on Board = FOB USA = $/kW $1,900 10.00 19,000
5% Ocean Freight = FRT = 5% x FOB 5% 950
1% Insurance = INS = 1% x FOB 1% 190
Cargo, Insurance & Freight = CIF = FOB + FRT + INS 20,140
12% Value Added Tax = VAT = 12% x CIF 12% 2,417
3% Customs Duty = (CIF + VAT) x (% Duty) x (1 + % VAT) 0% 0
Duty-Paid Landed Cost = DPLC = CIF + VAT + Duty 22,557
3% Local Freight Cost = LFC = 3% x CIF 3% 604
Delivered Cost at Site = DCS = DPLC + LFC 23,161
5% Installation Cost = IC = 5% x FOB 5% 950
Transmission line cost 69 kV $42,553 10.0 425.53
Total EPC = DCS + IC 24,536.53
10% Contingency (10%) = EPC x 10% 10% 2,454
1% Documentary Stamps (1%) = EPC x 1% = DS 1% 245
$2,724 Total Fixed Assets (EPC + Contingency + DS) 27,236
Depreciation term (years) salvage value 10.00% 1,226 20 27,278
Development costs (modeler) 0.50% 136
12% Other Costs including taxes, contingencies 0.00%
Carbon Emission Registration & Consultancy 0.00
$14 Initial investment in capitalized expenses 1,164.16 136
Amortization term (years) salvage value 10.00% 52 20
Working Capital:
141.3 Working capital (adjustment to meet DSCR = 1.1) 1.100 1.241
Working capital (initial stocks – biomass fuel) – 2 months 118
Working capital (initial stocks – chemical materials) – 2 months 23
Working capital (mobilization – utilities) – 2 months 51
Working capital (mobilization – maintenance) – 2 months 358
Working capital (mobilization – personnel expense) – 2 months 358
Working capital (pre-paid expense – advance rent) – 2 months 72
$103 Working capital (pre-paid expense – taxes, insurances, etc) – 2 months 1,028 48 28,442
Interest During Construction:
Dev’t fees (loan arranger) 0.50% 142
Front end fees (loan arranger) 0.50% 142
$469 Commitment fees (bank) 0.50% 142
12% Interest During Construction (bank) – 12 months 18 10.00% 4,266 4,693
Amortization term (years) salvage value 10.00% 211 20
$3,314 Total Investment (land, fixed, capitalized expenses, working capital) 1,557,356 33,135
$3,314 checksum
Depreciation of fixed assets 1,226 1,226
Amortization of capitalized expenses and working capital 52 52
Amortization of capitalized interest during construction 211 211
TOTAL DEPRECIATION & AMORTIZATION EXPENSE 1,489 1,489
Evolution of fixed assets and capitalized expenses Year 0 1 2
Land 43 43 43
Gross fixed assets 27,236 27,236 27,236
Accumulated depreciation 0 1,226 2,451
Net fixed assets 27,236 26,010 24,784
Gross capitalized expenses 1,164 1,164 1,164
Accumulated amortization 0 52 105
Net capitalized expenses 1,164 1,112 1,059
Gross capitalized interest during construction 4,693 4,693 4,693
Accumulated amortization 0 211 422
Net capitalized intereset during construction 4,693 4,482 4,271
Total Depreciable Assets (fixed assets, capitalized expenses, IDC) 33,093 31,604 30,114
DEBT SERVICE CALCULATION
In ‘000 US$ Year 0 1 2
Total Initial investment 33,135
% to be financed by capital Equity IRR 16.00% 30%
% to be financed by non refundable subsidy Subsidy 0.00% 0%
% to be financed by debt Debt Interest 10.50% 70%
Initial amount of capital WACC 12.15% 9,941
Amount of subsidy 0
Initial amount of debt 23,195
Repayment term (years) 1,933 12
Constant Repayment Method:
Annual repayment 1,933 1,933
Amount of debt at year end 23,195 21,262 19,329
Average amount of debt 22,228 20,295
Reference interest rate (Libor or other) 8.00% 8.00% 8.00%
Spread 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Interest rate of debt (1 = constant, 0 = mortgage) 10.50% 10.50% 10.50%
Interest based on average amount of debt 0 2,334 2,131
Declining Balance Method:
Beginning Balance 23,195 22,142
Interest 1 15.04% 10.50% 2,435 2,325
Principal repayment 3,488 12 1,052 1,163
Remaining balance 23,195 22,142 20,979
Year 0 1 2
Beginning Balance 23,195 22,142
Annual amount of interest 2,435 2,325
Annual amount of principal 1,052 1,163
Annual debt service (principal + interest) 3,488 3,488
Ending Balance 23,195 22,142 20,979
Debt Service Reserve Fund 6 months 1,744 1,744
DSRF Income 4.00% DSRF Income 70 70
Withholding Tax on Forex Fund 7.50% WhTax
DSRF Expense 0.30% DSRF Expense 5 5
BALANCE SHEET
BALANCE SHEET BEFORE DIVIDEND PAYMENT
In ‘000 US$ Year 0 1 2
Cash needed for operations 0 768 768
Additional cash (if negative, it would represent additional debt) 0 -1,136 -522
Receivables 0 900 900
Stocks 0 140 140
Land 43 43 43
Fixed assets (net) 27,236 26,010 24,784
Capitalized expenses (net) 1,164 1,112 1,059
Capitalized IDC (net) 4,693 4,482 4,271
Total assets 33,135 32,318 31,443
Suppliers 0 190 190
Debt 23,195 21,262 19,329
Shareholder’s Advances
Current year profit after tax 0 926 1,059
Accumulated reserves 0 0 926
Subsidy 0 0 0
Capital 9,941 9,941 9,941
Total liabilities and net worth 33,135 32,318 31,443
variance
BALANCE SHEET AFTER DIVIDEND PAYMENT
Year 0 1 2
Cash needed for operations 0 768 768
Additional cash (if negative, it would represent additional debt) 0 -1,978 -2,506
Receivables 0 900 900
Stocks 0 140 140
Land 43 43 43
Fixed assets (net) 27,236 26,010 24,784
Capitalized expenses (net) 1,164 1,112 1,059
Capitalized IDC (net) 4,693 4,482 4,271
Total assets 33,135 31,476 29,459
Suppliers 0 190 190
Debt 23,195 21,262 19,329
Shareholder’s Advances
Current year profit after tax
Reserves 0 84 0
Subsidy 0 0 0
Capital 9,941 9,941 9,941
Total liabilities and net worth 33,135 31,476 29,459
variance
Calculation of Dividends Payable
Gross Margin 4,850 4,873
Income Tax (-) 0 0
Increase in Working Capital (-) 591 0
Profit Sharing (-) 0 0
DSRF Income (+) 70 70
Social Benefit Fund (-) 0 0
Carbon Emission Credits (+) 0 0
Cash flow available for debt service (CFD) 4,329 4,942
Annual debt service (DS) = Interest + Principal 3,488 3,488
CF available for dividends (CFDiv = CFD-DS) 841 1,455
Accumulated CFDiv 0 841 2,296
Current year profit = Income After Tax 926 1,059
Accumulated profit: limit for dividend payable 0 926 1,984
Accumulated dividend payable 0 841 1,984
Annual dividend payable Planned Actual -9,941 841 1,143
Investor 1 60.00% -5,964 505 686
Investor 2 30.00% -2,982 252 343
Investor 3 10.00% -994 84 114
100.00%
CASH FLOW STATEMENT Year 0 1 2
OPERATIONS
Net Income (after tax) 925.73 1,058.58
Add: Depreciation & Amortization 1,489.17 1,489.17
(Increase) / Decrease in Receivables -899.76 0.00
(Increase) / Decrease in Inventories -140.37 0.00
Increase / (Decrease) in Accounts Payable 189.63 0.00
Net Cash flow from Operations 1,564.40 2,547.75
INVESTMENTS
Additions to PP&E 27,235.55 -27,235.55 0.00 0.00
Additions to Capitalized Expenses 1,164.16 -1,164.16 0.00 0.00
Additions to Capitalized IDC 4,692.97 -4,692.97 0.00 0.00
Additions to Land 42.55 -42.55 0.00 0.00
Net Cash flow Used for Investments 33,135.23 -33,135.23 0.00 0.00
Cash flow before Financing -33,135.23 1,564.40 2,547.75
FINANCING
Increase (Decrease) in Shareholder Advances 0.00 0.00 0.00
Increase (Decrease) in Long-term Debt 23,194.66 23,194.66 -1,932.89 -1,932.89
Increase (Decrease) in Subsidy 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Increase (Decrease) in Capital Stock 9,940.57 9,940.57 0.00 0.00
Net Cash flow from Financing 33,135.23 33,135.23 -1,932.89 -1,932.89
NET CASH FLOW 0.00 -368.49 614.87
Add: Beginning Cash Balance 0.00 -368.49
ENDING CASH BALANCE 0.00 -368.49 246.37
Levelized Selling Price, Generation Cost and Profit Year 0 1 2
Discounting Rate, % p.a. 16.00% 47.00 NPV
Electricity sales MWh PhP/kWh $/kWh 340,268 57,356 57,356
0.1882 TOTAL OPERATING INCOME AND SELLING PRICE 000 US$ 8.8477 0.1882 64,055 10,797 10,797
fuel Expenses from biomass purchase 000 US$ 0.5781 0.0123 4,185 705 705
variable O&M Purchase of chemical materials 000 US$ 0.1120 0.0024 811 137 137
Utilities (fuel, lubes, electricity, water) 000 US$ 0.1680 0.0036 1,216 205 205
Maintenance of the installation 000 US$ 1.1738 0.0250 8,498 1,433 1,433
Personnel expense 000 US$ 1.1738 0.0250 8,498 1,433 1,433
fixed O&M Land lease, rent 000 US$ 0.7043 0.0150 5,099 860 860
Taxes, Insurance, services, and others 000 US$ 0.4695 0.0100 3,399 573 573
DSRF Expense 000 US$ 3.756 0.0799 27 5 5
regulatory Special Privilege Tax – 2% 000 US$ 88.477 1.8825 641 108 108
Special Realty Tax – 2.5% 000 US$ 293.703 6.2490 2,126 474 452
DOE 1-94 : 0.01 PhP/kWh sales 000 US$ 10.000 0.2128 72 12 12
Others
1 Depreciation & amortization 000 US$ 1.2195 0.0259 8,829 1,489 1,489
1 Interest 000 US$ 1.3363 0.0284 9,674 2,435 2,325
1 Income tax 000 US$ 0.0791 0.0017 573 0 0
Total Generation Cost 7.4103 0.1577 53,649 9,871 9,739
Net Profit after Tax 1.4373 0.0306 10,406 925.73 1,058.58

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