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Wind Energy Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model with CDM Carbon Credits

November 26th, 2009 Posted in financial models

Wind Energy Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model with CDM Carbon Credits

The following is a snippet of my state-of-the-art project finance model for calculating feed-in tariff, levelized cost of energy, and financial model (generation, fuel requirement, income statement, cash flow statement, balance sheet and financial ratios).  To secure a copy of the spreadsheet, click the ENERGY DATA page for arrangements.

PROJECT FINANCE MODEL

Name WIND POWER PLANT

(C) Copyright 2009 by Marcial T. Ocampo (November 2009)

INSTRUCTIONS

(This example is in US$ Thousand, except for the unit prices which are in US$)

Year 0 reflects the starting assumptions, which will be applicable starting in year 1.

Blue cells must be filled out by the user.

0

1

press ctrl + e to converge model

CALCULATION OF GROSS OPERATING MARGIN

NPV-FC

NPV-ROE

used

IRR

years

24

(6,547.17)

(0.00)

(0.00)

15.00%

5.83

A) Operating income: ’000 US$

365

Year

0

1

2

2008

2009

2010

Days per year

days / year

366

365

365

Hours per day capacity factor

30.00%

hours / day

7.2

7.2

7.2

Rated Capacity (6 x 25 kW) rated capacity

33,000.00

kW

33,000.00

33,000.00

33,000.00

Gross Generation

kWh

86,961,600

86,724,000

86,724,000

Less: Power Plant Own Use

5.00%

kWh

4,348,080

4,336,200

4,336,200

Net Generation

kWh

82,613,520

82,387,800

82,387,800

Less: Transmission Line Lose

2.00%

kWh

1,652,270

1,647,756

1,647,756

Net Electricity Sales

kWh

80,961,250

80,740,044

80,740,044

-20.95%

PhP/kWh

PhP/$

Electricity tariff for sales to the network (US$/kWh)

12.3156

9.7360

47.00

0.2071

0.2071

0.2071

Annual increase of the tariff

0%

0.00%

0.00%

0.0%

0.0%

Electricity volume of sales to the network (kWh)

kWh

80,961,250

80,740,044

80,740,044

Annual increase of the volume

0.0%

Income from sales to the network

16,725.21

16,725.21

Other operating income from the installation, ’000 US$ tourist entrance fee

0

-

-

Annual increase of this operating income

0.0%

0.0%

Total other operating income

0.00

0.00

TOTAL OPERATING INCOME

16,725.21

16,725.21

Annual increase

0.0%

B) Expenses: ’000 US$

31,884.56

EPC

0

1

2

months

working capital

Expenses from fuel consumption

% of EPC

Maintenance of wind turbines (spares)

8.00%

6

1,275.38

2,550.77

2,550.77

2,550.77

Utilities (fuel, lubes, electricity, water)

7.00%

6

1,115.96

2,231.92

2,231.92

2,231.92

Maintenance of the rest of the plant

6.00%

6

956.54

1,913.07

1,913.07

1,913.07

Personnel expense

3.00%

6

478.27

956.54

956.54

956.54

Land lease, rent

3.00%

6

478.27

956.54

956.54

956.54

Taxes, Insurance, services, and others

3.00%

6

478.27

956.54

956.54

956.54

Annual increase of these expenses

30.00%

57.16%

% of GR

0.0%

0.0%

0.2560

Total O&M expenses

$/kW/yr

0.2899

9,565.37

9,565.37

9,565.37

DSRF Expense

0.30%

of DSRF

7.83

7.46

Special Privilege Tax – 2%

2.00%

of Electricity Revenue

334.50

334.50

2.50%

Special Realty Tax – 2.5%

1.50%

of Depreciated Project Cost

562.70

507.05

DOE 1-94 : 0.01 PhP/kWh sales

0.01

PhP/kWh sales

0.000213

17.53

17.53

Total Regulatory Expenses

914.73

859.08

TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSE

10,487.93

10,431.91

Annual increase

-0.5%

GROSS OPERATING MARGIN

6,237.28

6,293.30

Annual increase

0.90%

PROFIT AND LOSS STATEMENTS

In ’000 US$

Year

0

1

2

Operating income

16,725.21

16,725.21

Operating expense

10,487.93

10,431.91

Operating gross margin

6,237.28

6,293.30

- Depreciation & amortization

3,710.09

3,710.09

- Interest

2,330.71

2,085.37

PROFIT BEFORE TAX

196.49

497.84

30%

(Tax rate) and Income Tax Holiday (ITH) years

10%

6

0%

0%

7

- Income tax

0.00

0.00

PROFIT AFTER TAX

196.49

497.84

Percentage of increase

153.37%

NET CASH FLOW

Year

0

1

2

Net profit after tax

196.49

497.84

Addback:

Depreciation & Amortization

3,710.09

3,710.09

Working Capital

Salvage Value

Add:

DSRF Income

4.00%

DSRF Income

104.34

99.43

Less:

Principal Repayment

2,886.33

2,886.33

1

Profit Sharing

0.00%

of income after tax

0.00

0.00

$35,000

Social Benefit Fund – Host Community

0

per month

0.00

0.00

$5.00

ADD: Carbon Emission Credits

0.650

0.000

kg CO2/kWh

3.25122

270.68

270.68

4.00%

NET CASH FLOW

1,395.27

1,691.72

$0

Percentage of increase

21.2%

((0.650 -0.000) kg CO2/ kWh x MWh x 1000 kWh/MWh x MT/1000 kg x $5.00/MT x (100%- 4%) – 1,200 $) x M$/1000$

Total Initial investment

41,233.23

Project Cash Flow

-5.13%

10.45%

WACC

-41,233.23

1,395.27

1,691.72

IRR

NPV

-28,863.26

-41,233.23

1,213.28

1,279.18

check

-25,707.69

-41,233.23

1,263.26

1,386.75

cumulative

0

-41,233.23

-39,837.96

-38,146.24

project payback

0.00

Invested capital

30.00%

12,369.97

Equity Cash Flow

15.00%

15.00%

Equity IRR

-12,369.97

1,395.27

1,691.72

IRR

NPV

0.00

-12,369.97

1,213.28

1,279.18

check

0.00

-12,369.97

1,213.28

1,279.18

cumulative

0

-12,369.97

-10,974.70

-9,282.98

equity payback

5.83

CALCULATION OF CASH FLOW FOR DEBT SERVICE

Year

0

1

2

Operating gross margin

6,237.28

6,293.30

- Income tax

0.00

0.00

- Increase in working capital needs (WCN)

2,031.46

0.00

- Profit Sharing

0.00

0.00

+ DSRF Income

104.34

99.43

- Social Benefit Fund

0.00

0.00

+ Carbon Emission Credits

270.68

270.68

Cash flow available for debt service (CFD)

4,580.85

6,663.42

CALCULATION OF DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE RATIO (DSCR)

Year

0

1

2

Cash flow available for debt service (CFD)

4,580.85

6,663.42

Annual debt service (DS)

5,217.03

4,971.70

min

ave

max

DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE RATIO (DSCR)

0.878

1.655

2.254

0.88

1.34

CALCULATION OF DIVIDENDS PAYABLE

Year

0

1

2

Cash flow available for debt service (CFD)

0.00

4,580.85

6,663.42

Annual debt service (DS)

0.00

5,217.03

4,971.70

CF available for dividends (CFDiv = CFD-DS)

0.00

0.00

1,691.72

Accumulated CFDiv

0.00

0.00

1,691.72

Current year profit after tax

0.00

196.49

497.84

Accumulated profit: limit for dividend payable

0.00

196.49

694.33

0.00

0.00

694.33

Accumulated dividend payable

0.00

0.00

694.33

Annual dividend payable

0.00

0.00

694.33

CALCULATION OF NPV, IRR AND PAY-BACK ACCORDING TO INVESTED CAPITAL AND DIVIDENDS PAYABLE

Year

0

1

2

Invested capital

12,369.97

Annual dividend payable

0.00

0.00

694.33

Discount rate to be applied for NPV calculation

15.00%

15%

15%

Discount factor for this rate

1

1.0000

1.1500

1.3225

Discounted dividends

0.00

0.00

525.01

Present value of dividends

5,822.80

NPV of the investment

-6,547.17

Year

0

1

2

Investment schedulle

2.45%

15.00%

discount

-12,369.97

0.00

694.33

IRR OF THE INVESTMENT

IRR

NPV

-6,547.17

-12,369.97

0.00

525.01

check

-6,547.17

-12,369.97

0.00

525.01

cumulative

0

-12,369.97

-12,369.97

-11,675.64

Pay-back term of invested capital, years

equity payback

9.14

BALANCE SHEET ACCOUNTS

Calculation of WCN:

Cash needed for operations (+)

1.000

months of expenses

4.76%

797.11

797.11

Receivables (+)

1.000

months of revenue

8.33%

1,393.77

1,393.77

Stocks (+)

1.000

months of fuel & chemicals

1.27%

212.56

212.56

Suppliers(-)

1.000

months of payables

2.22%

371.99

371.99

WCN

12.14%

% of operating income

2,031.46

2,031.46

CALCULATION OF DEPRECIATION

47.00

In ’000 US$

$/kW

kW

Year

0

1

2

Initial investment in land, $/ha

$10,000

1.00

10.00

$762

Freight on Board = FOB USA = $/kW

$762

33,000.00

25,157.50

5%

Ocean Freight = FRT = 5% x FOB

5%

1,257.87

1%

Insurance = INS = 1% x FOB

1%

251.57

Cargo, Insurance & Freight = CIF = FOB + FRT + INS

26,666.95

12%

Value Added Tax = VAT = 12% x CIF

0%

0.00

3%

Customs Duty = (CIF + VAT) x (% Duty) x (1 + % VAT)

0%

0.00

Duty-Paid Landed Cost = DPLC = CIF + VAT + Duty

26,666.95

3%

Local Freight Cost = LFC = 3% x CIF

3%

800.01

Delivered Cost at Site = DCS = DPLC + LFC

27,466.96

5%

Installation Cost = IC = 5% x FOB

5%

1,257.87

Total EPC = DCS + IC

28,724.83

10%

Contingency (10%) = EPC x 10%

10%

2,872.48

1%

Documentary Stamps (1%) = EPC x 1% = DS

1%

287.25

$966

Total Fixed Assets (EPC + Contingency + DS)

31,884.56

Depreciation term (years) salvage value

10.00%

2,869.61

10

31,894.56

Development costs (modeler)

2.00%

637.89

12%

Other Costs including taxes, contingencies

0.00%

0.00

Carbon Emission Registration & Consultancy

35.00

Initial investment in capitalized expenses

5,420.58

Amortization term (years) salvage value

10.00%

487.85

10

Working Capital:

Working capital (initial stocks – fuel) – 2 months

0.00

Working capital (initial spares – wind installation) – 2 months

1,275.38

Working capital (mobilization – utilities) – 2 months

1,115.96

Working capital (mobilization – maintenance) – 2 months

956.54

Working capital (mobilization – personnel expense) – 2 months

478.27

Working capital (pre-paid expense – advance rent) – 2 months

478.27

Working capital (pre-paid expense – taxes, insurances, etc) – 2 months

4,782.68

478.27

37,315.14

Interest During Construction:

Dev’t fees (loan arranger)

1.00%

373.15

Front end fees (loan arranger)

1.00%

373.15

Commitment fees (bank)

0.50%

186.58

12%

Interest During Construction (bank) – 12 months

8.00%

2,985.21

Amortization term (years)

salvage value

10.00%

352.63

10

$1,249

Total Investment (land, fixed, capitalized expenses, working capital)

41,233.23

Depreciation of fixed assets

2,869.61

2,869.61

Amortization of capitalized expenses

487.85

487.85

Amortization of capitalized expenses

352.63

352.63

TOTAL DEPRECIATION & AMORTIZATION EXPENSE

3,710.09

3,710.09

Evolution of fixed assets and capitalized expenses

Year

0

1

2

Land (non-depreciable)

10.00

10.00

10.00

Gross fixed assets

31,884.56

31,884.56

31,884.56

Accumulated depreciation

0.00

2,869.61

5,739.22

Net fixed assets

31,884.56

29,014.95

26,145.34

Gross capitalized expenses

5,420.58

5,420.58

5,420.58

Accumulated amortization

0.00

487.85

975.70

Net capitalized expenses

5,420.58

4,932.72

4,444.87

Gross capitalized interest during construction

3,918.09

3,918.09

3,918.09

Accumulated amortization

0.00

352.63

705.26

Net capitalized interest during construction

3,918.09

3,565.46

3,212.83

Total Depreciable Assets (fixed assets, capitalized expenses, IDC)

41,223.23

37,513.14

33,803.05

DEBT SERVICE CALCULATION

In ’000 US$

Year

0

1

2

Initial investment in fixed assets and capitalized expenses

41,233.23

Percentage to be financed by capital

Equity IRR

15.00%

30%

Percentage to be financed by non refundable subsidy

Subsidy

0.00%

0%

Percentage to be financed by debt

Debt Interest

8.50%

70%

Initial amount of capital

WACC

10.45%

12,369.97

Amount of subsidy

0.00

Initial amount of debt

28,863.26

Repayment term (years)

2,886.33

10

Constant Repayment Method:

Annual repayment

2,886.33

2,886.33

Amount of debt at year end

28,863.26

25,976.93

23,090.61

Average amount of debt

27,420.10

24,533.77

Reference interest rate (Libor or other)

6.50%

6.50%

6.50%

Spread

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

Interest rate of debt

(1 = constant, 0 = mortgage)

8.50%

8.50%

8.50%

Interest based on average amount of debt

1

2,330.71

2,085.37

Declining Balance Method:

Beginning Balance

28,863.26

26,917.65

Interest

0

15.24%

8.50%

2,453.38

2,288.00

Principal repayment

4,398.98

10

1,945.61

2,110.98

Remaining balance

28,863.26

26,917.65

24,806.67

Year

0

1

2

Beginning Balance

28,863.26

25,976.93

Annual amount of interest

2,330.71

2,085.37

Annual amount of principal

2,886.33

2,886.33

Annual debt service (principal + interest)

5,217.03

4,971.70

Ending Balance

28,863.26

25,976.93

23,090.61

Debt Service Reserve Fund

6

months

2,608.52

2,485.85

DSRF Income

4.00%

DSRF Income

104.34

99.43

Withholding Tax on Forex Fund

7.50%

WhTax

DSRF Expense

0.30%

DSRF Expense

7.83

7.46

BALANCE SHEET

BALANCE SHEET BEFORE DIVIDEND PAYMENT

In ’000 US$

Year

0

1

2

Cash needed for operations

0.00

797.11

797.11

Additional cash (if negative, it would represent additional debt)

0.00

-1,011.21

310.40

Receivables

0.00

1,393.77

1,393.77

Stocks

0.00

212.56

212.56

Land

10.00

10.00

10.00

Fixed assets (net)

31,884.56

29,014.95

26,145.34

Capitalized expenses (net)

5,420.58

4,932.72

4,444.87

Capitalized interest during construction (net)

3,918.09

3,565.46

3,212.83

Total assets

41,233.23

38,915.38

36,526.89

Suppliers

0.00

371.99

371.99

Debt

28,863.26

25,976.93

23,090.61

Shareholder’s advances

Current year profit after tax

0.00

196.49

497.84

Accumulated reserves

0.00

0.00

196.49

Subsidy

0.00

0.00

0.00

Capital

12,369.97

12,369.97

12,369.97

Total liabilities and net worth

41,233.23

38,915.38

36,526.89

Variance

0.00

0.00

0.00

BALANCE SHEET AFTER DIVIDEND PAYMENT

Year

0

1

2

Cash needed for operations

0.00

797.11

797.11

Additional cash (if negative, it would represent additional debt)

0.00

-1,011.21

-383.93

Receivables

0.00

1,393.77

1,393.77

Stocks

0.00

212.56

212.56

Land

10.00

10.00

10.00

Fixed assets (net)

31,884.56

29,014.95

26,145.34

Capitalized expenses (net)

5,420.58

4,932.72

4,444.87

Capitalized interest during construction (net)

3,918.09

3,565.46

3,212.83

Total assets

41,233.23

38,915.38

35,832.56

Suppliers

0.00

371.99

371.99

Debt

28,863.26

25,976.93

23,090.61

Shareholder’s advances

Current year profit after tax

Reserves

0.00

196.49

0.00

Subsidy

0.00

0.00

0.00

Capital

12,369.97

12,369.97

12,369.97

Total liabilities and net worth

41,233.23

38,915.38

35,832.56

Variance

0.00

0.00

0.00

Calculation of Dividends Payable

Gross Margin

6,237.28

6,293.30

Income Tax (-)

0.00

0.00

Increase in Working Capital (-)

2,031.46

0.00

Profit Sharing (-)

0.00

0.00

DSRF Income (+)

104.34

99.43

Social Benefit Fund (-)

0.00

0.00

Carbon Emission Credits (+)

270.68

270.68

Cash flow available for debt service (CFD)

4,580.85

6,663.42

Annual debt service (DS) = Interest + Principal

5,217.03

4,971.70

CF available for dividends (CFDiv = CFD-DS)

0.00

1,691.72

Accumulated CFDiv

0.00

0.00

1,691.72

Current year profit = Income After Tax

196.49

497.84

Accumulated profit: limit for dividend payable

0.00

196.49

694.33

Accumulated dividend payable

0.00

0.00

694.33

Annual dividend payable

-12,369.97

0.00

694.33

Investor 1

60.00%

-7,421.98

0.00

416.60

Investor 2

30.00%

-3,710.99

0.00

208.30

Investor 3

10.00%

-1,237.00

0.00

69.43

100.00%

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

Year

0

1

2

OPERATIONS

Net Income (after tax)

196.49

497.84

Add:  Depreciation & Amortization

3,710.09

3,710.09

(Increase) / Decrease in Receivables

-1,393.77

0.00

(Increase) / Decrease in Inventories

-212.56

0.00

Increase / (Decrease) in Accounts Payable

371.99

0.00

Net Cash flow from Operations

2,672.23

4,207.93

INVESTMENTS

Additions to PP&E

31,884.56

-31,884.56

0.00

0.00

Additions to Capitalized Expenses

5,420.58

-5,420.58

0.00

0.00

Additions to Capitalized IDC

3,918.09

-3,918.09

0.00

0.00

Additions to Land

10.00

-10.00

0.00

0.00

Net Cash flow Used for Investments

41,233.23

-41,233.23

0.00

0.00

Cash flow before Financing

-41,233.23

2,672.23

4,207.93

FINANCING

Increase (Decrease) in Shareholder Advances

0.00

0.00

0.00

Increase (Decrease) in Long-term Debt

28,863.26

28,863.26

-2,886.33

-2,886.33

Increase (Decrease) in Subsidy

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Increase (Decrease) in Capital Stock

12,369.97

12,369.97

0.00

0.00

Net Cash flow from Financing

41,233.23

41,233.23

-2,886.33

-2,886.33

NET CASH FLOW

0.00

-214.09

1,321.61

Add: Beginning Cash Balance

0.00

-214.09

ENDING CASH BALANCE

0.00

-214.09

1,107.51

Levlized Profit and Cost of Electricity

Year

0

1

2

Discounting Rate, % p.a.

15.00%

47.00

NPV

Electricity sales kWh

PhP/kWh

$/kWh

405,414,387

80,740,044

80,740,044

0.2071

TOTAL OPERATING INCOME 000 US$

9.7360

0.2071

83,981

16,725.21

16,725.21

fuel

Expenses from fuel consumption 000 PhP

0.0000

0.0000

0

0.00

0.00

variable O&M

Maintenance of wind turbines (spares) 000 US$

1.4841

0.0316

12,802

2,550.77

2,550.77

Utilities (fuel, lubes, electricity, water) 000 US$

1.2986

0.0276

11,201

2,231.92

2,231.92

Maintenance of the rest of the plant 000 US$

1.1131

0.0237

9,601

1,913.07

1,913.07

Personnel expense 000 US$

0.5565

0.0118

4,801

956.54

956.54

fixed O&M

Land lease, rent 000 US$

0.5565

0.0118

4,801

956.54

956.54

Taxes, Insurance, services, and others 000 US$

0.5565

0.0118

4,801

956.54

956.54

DSRF Expense 000 US$

0.0038

0.0001

33

7.83

7.46

regulatory

Special Privilege Tax – 2% 000 US$

0.1947

0.0041

1,680

334.50

334.50

Special Realty Tax – 2.5% 000 US$

0.2178

0.0046

1,879

562.70

507.05

DOE 1-94 : 0.01 PhP/kWh sales 000 US$

0.0102

0.0002

88

17.53

17.53

Others

1

Depreciation & amortization 000 US$

2.1586

0.0459

18,620

3,710.09

3,710.09

1

Interest 000 US$

0.8731

0.0186

7,532

2,330.71

2,085.37

1

Income tax 000 US$

0.0346

0.0007

298

0.00

0.00

Total Cost

9.0584

0.1927

78,136.05

16,528.72

16,227.37

Net Profit

0.6776

0.0144

5,845

196.49

497.84

One Response to “Wind Energy Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model with CDM Carbon Credits”

  1. Wind Energy Feed In Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model | Renewables Biz Says:


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