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Performance of Wind Turbine Generators from MONTE CARLO SIMULATION of Wind Speed

February 6th, 2015 Posted in Monte Carlo Simulation

Performance of Wind Turbine Generators from MONTE CARLO SIMULATION of Wind Speed

Be a wind energy and power generation expert.

Follow the methodology and explanation below. Get hold of the advanced tools too, namely:

 

1) Wind energy resource monitoring (from wind anemometer measurements and data logger or wind map and resource providers such as 3-TIER, NREL, etc.)

2) Monte Carlo Simulation of wind speed (wind speed = average wind speed +/- standard deviation)

3) Annual power generation using power curve of wind turbine model and calculation of capacity factor

4) Overnight capital cost per kW of major wind turbine manufacturers

5) Project finance modeling (deterministic and stochastic with Monte Carlo Simulation)

 

Based on the wind turbine power curves of 81 WTG models and applying MONTE CARLO SIMULATION on the wind speed, the annual power output and annual capacity factor for the following WTG models were determined:

  • Bergey
  • Bonus
  • Carter
  • Dewind
  • Fuhrlaender
  • Gamesa Eolica
  • GE Wind
  • Jacobs
  • Jacobs-additions
  • Lagerwey
  • NEG Micon
  • Nordex
  • Norwin
  • Repower
  • Suzlon
  • TMA
  • Turbowinds Inland
  • Vestas

 

The wind profile of the hill location in southern Negros Island is shown below (from 3-TIER at the 1st and 15th of each month for 12 months):

Data SIATON ANNUAL PROFILE Wind Speed, m/s Std. Deviation Range
No. Date average minus plus min max
1 1-Jan-10 10.0 -2.5 2.7 7.5 12.7
2 16-Jan-10 10.7 -2.7 2.8 8.0 13.5
3 1-Feb-10 10.4 -2.6 2.8 7.8 13.2
4 14-Feb-10 10.1 -2.5 2.8 7.6 12.9
5 1-Mar-10 9.3 -2.3 2.6 7.0 11.9
6 16-Mar-10 8.4 -2.0 2.4 6.4 10.8
7 1-Apr-10 7.7 -1.8 2.3 5.9 9.9
8 16-Apr-10 6.9 -1.6 2.1 5.3 9.0
9 1-May-10 6.0 -1.3 1.9 4.7 7.8
10 16-May-10 5.0 -1.0 1.6 4.0 6.6
11 1-Jun-10 4.8 -1.1 1.5 3.7 6.2
12 16-Jun-10 4.5 -1.2 1.3 3.3 5.8
13 1-Jul-10 4.9 -1.3 1.3 3.6 6.1
14 16-Jul-10 5.2 -1.4 1.2 3.8 6.4
15 1-Aug-10 5.6 -1.5 1.4 4.2 7.0
16 16-Aug-10 6.0 -1.5 1.5 4.5 7.5
17 1-Sep-10 5.6 -0.9 1.2 4.8 6.8
18 16-Sep-10 5.2 -0.2 0.9 5.0 6.1
19 1-Oct-10 5.4 -0.8 1.2 4.6 6.6
20 16-Oct-10 5.6 -1.4 1.4 4.2 7.0
21 1-Nov-10 6.2 -1.6 1.6 4.7 7.8
22 16-Nov-10 6.8 -1.7 1.7 5.1 8.5
23 1-Dec-10 8.0 -2.0 2.2 6.1 10.2
24 16-Dec-10 9.2 -2.2 2.6 7.0 11.8
25 31-Dec-10 10.0 -2.5 2.7 7.5 12.7
  AVERAGE 7.1 -1.7 1.9 5.4 9.0

 

The resulting annual generation and average capacity factor for the major manufacturers of wind turbine generators for 24 x 365 hours simulation using the following probabilistic estimate of the wind speed:

 

wind speed m/s (day, hour) = average speed + (positive deviation) * rand() – (negative deviation) * rand()

power output kW (day, hour) = vertical lookup table(wind speed, wind turbine model power curve)

annual generation kWh/year (24 x 365 hours) = sum of all power output(day, hour)

average capacity factor % = (annual generation kWh/year) / (installed capacity kW x 24 x 365 h/year) x 100%

 

The results are summarized below, and together with the capital and operating costs, the economics of the WTG model for a given location and hub height is determined:

 

Alpha List of Wind Turbine Generators (alphabetical list):

Performance of Wind Turbine Generators (1000 MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TRIALS)***
Manufacturer Model Capacity Annual Generation** Annual Capacity Factor**, %
    kW Mean Minimum Maximum Units Mean Minimum Maximum
Bergey BWC XL. 1, 2.5m 3,643 3,623 3,663 KWH 41.59 41.36 41.82
Bergey BWC Excel-R, 7m 7.5  25,096 24,956 25,236 KWH 38.20 37.99 38.41
Bergey BWC Excel-S 10  25,362 25,210 25,514 KWH 28.95 28.78 29.13
Bonus 300kW Mk II, 33m 300 845 841 850 MWH 32.17 31.98 32.35
Bonus 450 kW Mk III, 37m 450 1,109 1,102 1,116 MWH 28.13 27.96 28.31
Bonus 500 kW, 41m rotor 500 1,193 1,185 1,201 MWH 27.24 27.06 27.43
Bonus 600 kW Mk II, 44m 600 1,343 1,334 1,352 MWH 25.54 25.38 25.71
Bonus 600 kW Mk IV, 44m 600 1,383 1,374 1,391 MWH 26.30 26.14 26.47
Bonus 1 MW, 54.2m 1000 2,321 2,307 2,336 MWH 26.50 26.33 26.67
Bonus B1300, 62m  1300 3,122 3,102 3,142 MWH 27.41 27.23 27.59
Bonus 2MW, 76m 2000 4,498 4,467 4,529 MWH 25.67 25.49 25.85
Bonus 2.3 MW, 82.4m 2300 5,321 5,285 5,358 MWH 26.41 26.23 26.59
Carter Carter 300, 67′ rotor 300 450 447 453 MWH 17.12 17.01 17.24
Carter Carter 300, 78′ rotor 300 599 596 602 MWH 22.80 22.69 22.92
DeWind DW600 kW, 46m 600 1,653 1,642 1,665 MWH 31.46 31.24 31.68
DeWind DW600 kW, 48m 600 1,766 1,755 1,778 MWH 33.60 33.38 33.82
DeWind DW1250 kW, 62m 1250 3,014 2,992 3,036 MWH 27.52 27.32 27.73
DeWind DW1250 kW, 64m 1250 3,188 3,166 3,211 MWH 29.12 28.91 29.32
DeWind DW2000 kW, 80m 2000 4,996 4,963 5,030 MWH 28.52 28.33 28.71
Fuhrlaender FL30, 13m 30 108 107 108 MWH 40.96 40.77 41.15
Fuhrlaender FL100, 21m 100 305 303 307 MWH 34.79 34.58 35.01
Fuhrlaender FL250, 29.5m 250 633 630 637 MWH 28.91 28.75 29.08
Fuhrlaender FL 1000, 54m 1000 2,178 2,164 2,192 MWH 24.86 24.70 25.02
Gamesa Eolica G52-800kW 800 2,003 1,990 2,017 MWH 28.59 28.39 28.78
Gamesa Eolica G58-850kW 850 2,526 2,511 2,541 MWH 33.93 33.73 34.13
Gamesa Eolica G80-1.5 MW 1500 4,738 4,711 4,764 MWH 36.05 35.85 36.26
Gamesa Eolica G80-2.0 MW 2000 4,972 4,939 5,005 MWH 28.38 28.19 28.57
GE Wind Energy GE 900kW 900 2,126 2,110 2,142 MWH 26.96 26.76 27.16
GE Wind Energy GE 1.5 S, 70.5m 1500 3,911 3,883 3,938 MWH 29.76 29.55 29.97
GE Wind Energy GE 1.5 SL, 77m 1500 4,446 4,420 4,472 MWH 33.83 33.63 34.03
Jacobs Jacobs 20kW, 31 ft 20 49,116 48,748 49,484 KWH 28.03 27.82 28.24
Lagerwey LW52, 51.5m rotor 750 2,146 2,134 2,159 MWH 32.67 32.48 32.86
Lagerwey LW58, 58m rotor 750 2,448 2,436 2,461 MWH 37.26 37.07 37.46
Lagerwey LW72, 71.2m rotor 2000 4,112 4,082 4,143 MWH 23.47 23.30 23.65
NEG Micon NM 44/750 750 1,290 1,280 1,300 MWH 19.64 19.49 19.79
NEG Micon NM 48/750, IEC II, Arctic 750 1,751 1,739 1,763 MWH 26.65 26.47 26.83
NEG Micon NM 52/900, 60 Hz, IEC II, Arctic 900 2,097 2,084 2,110 MWH 26.60 26.44 26.77
NEG Micon NM 54/950, Power Trim, IEC II b 950 2,234 2,220 2,248 MWH 26.85 26.67 27.02
NEG Micon NM 60/1000 1000 2,552 2,537 2,567 MWH 29.13 28.97 29.30
NEG Micon NM 72C/1.5, 60 Hz 1500 3,853 3,826 3,880 MWH 29.32 29.12 29.53
NEG Micon NM 72, IEC I 1650 3,923 3,895 3,951 MWH 27.14 26.95 27.34
NEG Micon NM 82/1500, 82m rotor 1500 5,071 5,044 5,098 MWH 38.59 38.38 38.80
NEG Micon NM 82, IEC III 1650 5,026 4,996 5,055 MWH 34.77 34.57 34.98
Nordex N50/800, 50m rotor 800 1,788 1,775 1,800 MWH 25.51 25.33 25.69
Nordex N60/1300, 60m rotor 1300 2,637 2,618 2,657 MWH 23.16 22.99 23.33
Nordex N62/1300, 62m rotor 1300 2,809 2,789 2,829 MWH 24.67 24.49 24.84
Nordex S70/1500, 70m rotor 1500 3,671 3,643 3,699 MWH 27.94 27.73 28.15
Nordex S77/1500, 77m rotor 1500 4,162 4,132 4,192 MWH 31.67 31.44 31.90
Nordex N80/2500, 80m rotor 2500 4,836 4,798 4,874 MWH 22.08 21.91 22.26
Nordex N90/2300, 90m rotor 2300 6,131 6,089 6,172 MWH 30.43 30.22 30.63
Norwin N150, 25.4m rotor 150 417 414 419 MWH 31.72 31.51 31.92
Norwin 29-Stall-225kW, 29m rotor 225 429 426 432 MWH 21.77 21.60 21.93
Norwin 47-ASR-750 kW, 47m rotor 750 1,681 1,670 1,692 MWH 25.59 25.41 25.76
REpower Repower 48/600 600 1,604 1,594 1,613 MWH 30.51 30.33 30.70
REpower Repower 48/750 750 1,711 1,699 1,722 MWH 26.04 25.87 26.21
REpower REpower MD 70 1500 3,672 3,645 3,698 MWH 27.94 27.74 28.15
REpower REpower MD 77 1500 4,211 4,185 4,237 MWH 32.05 31.85 32.25
REpower REpower MM 70 2000 3,780 3,750 3,810 MWH 21.57 21.40 21.74
REpower REpower MM 82 2000 4,933 4,901 4,965 MWH 28.16 27.97 28.34
Suzlon S.33/350 350 809 803 814 MWH 26.38 26.21 26.55
Suzlon S.64/950 950 3,139 3,121 3,157 MWH 37.72 37.50 37.94
Suzlon S.60/1000 1000 2,612 2,594 2,630 MWH 29.82 29.62 30.02
Suzlon S.62/1000 1000 2,776 2,758 2,795 MWH 31.69 31.48 31.90
Suzlon S.64/1000 1000 3,175 3,156 3,194 MWH 36.25 36.02 36.47
Suzlon S.60/1250 1250 2,629 2,611 2,647 MWH 24.01 23.84 24.18
Suzlon S.64/1250 1250 3,279 3,256 3,302 MWH 29.94 29.73 30.15
Suzlon S.66/1250 1250 3,473 3,449 3,496 MWH 31.71 31.50 31.93
TMA TMA 10kW 10 13,775 13,671 13,879 KWH 15.73 15.61 15.84
Turbowinds Inland T600-52 600 1,942 1,930 1,953 MWH 36.94 36.72 37.16
Vestas V27-225, 27m rotor 225 572 568 576 MWH 29.02 28.83 29.21
Vestas V29-225, 29m rotor 225 643 639 647 MWH 32.62 32.43 32.82
Vestas V39-500, 39m rotor 500 1,118 1,110 1,126 MWH 25.53 25.34 25.72
Vestas V39-600, 39m rotor 600 1,157 1,148 1,166 MWH 22.01 21.84 22.18
Vestas V42-600, 42m rotor 600 1,289 1,279 1,298 MWH 24.52 24.34 24.70
Vestas V44-600, 44m rotor 600 1,395 1,386 1,405 MWH 26.55 26.37 26.73
Vestas V47-660, 47m rotor 660 1,709 1,698 1,720 MWH 29.56 29.37 29.75
Vestas V52-850, 52m rotor 850 2,297 2,283 2,311 MWH 30.84 30.65 31.03
Vestas V66-1650, 66m rotor 1650 3,255 3,231 3,278 MWH 22.52 22.36 22.68
Vestas V66-1.75MW 1750 4,128 4,102 4,155 MWH 26.93 26.76 27.10
Vestas V80-1800 IEC class I 1800 4,914 4,880 4,947 MWH 31.16 30.95 31.38
Vestas V80-1800 IEC class II 1800 4,738 4,705 4,771 MWH 30.05 29.84 30.26
                   
* Annual wind profile from 3-TIER wind resource map for a windy southern hill in Negros Oriental, the Visayas, Philippines.    
** Minimum and Maximum values at 95% of all outcomes for 1,000 trials. Mean is average of 1,000 trials.        
***Siaton Wind Speed, m/s              
Mean Minimum Maximum              
7.1 5.4 9.0              

 

The reader may sort the above summary table according the installed kW capacity to determine the best WTG model for a given power requirement (highest annual generation or capacity factor).

Sorted List of Wind Turbine Generators (sorted by ascending installed capacity and descending capacity factor):

 

Performance of Wind Turbine Generators (1000 MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TRIALS)***
Manufacturer Model Capacity Annual Generation** Annual Capacity Factor**, %
    kW Mean Minimum Maximum Units Mean Minimum Maximum
Bergey BWC XL. 1, 2.5m 3,643 3,623 3,663 KWH 41.59 41.36 41.82
Bergey BWC Excel-R, 7m 7.5  25,096 24,956 25,236 KWH 38.20 37.99 38.41
TMA TMA 10kW 10 13,775 13,671 13,879 KWH 15.73 15.61 15.84
Bergey BWC Excel-S 10  25,362 25,210 25,514 KWH 28.95 28.78 29.13
Jacobs Jacobs 20kW, 31 ft 20 49,116 48,748 49,484 KWH 28.03 27.82 28.24
Fuhrlaender FL30, 13m 30 108 107 108 MWH 40.96 40.77 41.15
Fuhrlaender FL100, 21m 100 305 303 307 MWH 34.79 34.58 35.01
Norwin N150, 25.4m rotor 150 417 414 419 MWH 31.72 31.51 31.92
Vestas V29-225, 29m rotor 225 643 639 647 MWH 32.62 32.43 32.82
Vestas V27-225, 27m rotor 225 572 568 576 MWH 29.02 28.83 29.21
Norwin 29-Stall-225kW, 29m rotor 225 429 426 432 MWH 21.77 21.60 21.93
Fuhrlaender FL250, 29.5m 250 633 630 637 MWH 28.91 28.75 29.08
Bonus 300kW Mk II, 33m 300 845 841 850 MWH 32.17 31.98 32.35
Carter Carter 300, 78′ rotor 300 599 596 602 MWH 22.80 22.69 22.92
Carter Carter 300, 67′ rotor 300 450 447 453 MWH 17.12 17.01 17.24
Suzlon S.33/350 350 809 803 814 MWH 26.38 26.21 26.55
Bonus 450 kW Mk III, 37m 450 1,109 1,102 1,116 MWH 28.13 27.96 28.31
Bonus 500 kW, 41m rotor 500 1,193 1,185 1,201 MWH 27.24 27.06 27.43
Vestas V39-500, 39m rotor 500 1,118 1,110 1,126 MWH 25.53 25.34 25.72
Turbowinds Inland T600-52 600 1,942 1,930 1,953 MWH 36.94 36.72 37.16
DeWind DW600 kW, 48m 600 1,766 1,755 1,778 MWH 33.60 33.38 33.82
DeWind DW600 kW, 46m 600 1,653 1,642 1,665 MWH 31.46 31.24 31.68
REpower Repower 48/600 600 1,604 1,594 1,613 MWH 30.51 30.33 30.70
Vestas V44-600, 44m rotor 600 1,395 1,386 1,405 MWH 26.55 26.37 26.73
Bonus 600 kW Mk IV, 44m 600 1,383 1,374 1,391 MWH 26.30 26.14 26.47
Bonus 600 kW Mk II, 44m 600 1,343 1,334 1,352 MWH 25.54 25.38 25.71
Vestas V42-600, 42m rotor 600 1,289 1,279 1,298 MWH 24.52 24.34 24.70
Vestas V39-600, 39m rotor 600 1,157 1,148 1,166 MWH 22.01 21.84 22.18
Vestas V47-660, 47m rotor 660 1,709 1,698 1,720 MWH 29.56 29.37 29.75
Lagerwey LW58, 58m rotor 750 2,448 2,436 2,461 MWH 37.26 37.07 37.46
Lagerwey LW52, 51.5m rotor 750 2,146 2,134 2,159 MWH 32.67 32.48 32.86
NEG Micon NM 48/750, IEC II, Arctic 750 1,751 1,739 1,763 MWH 26.65 26.47 26.83
REpower Repower 48/750 750 1,711 1,699 1,722 MWH 26.04 25.87 26.21
Norwin 47-ASR-750 kW, 47m rotor 750 1,681 1,670 1,692 MWH 25.59 25.41 25.76
NEG Micon NM44/750 750 1,290 1,280 1,300 MWH 19.64 19.49 19.79
Gamesa Eolica G52-800kW 800 2,003 1,990 2,017 MWH 28.59 28.39 28.78
Nordex N50/800, 50m rotor 800 1,788 1,775 1,800 MWH 25.51 25.33 25.69
Gamesa Eolica G58-850kW 850 2,526 2,511 2,541 MWH 33.93 33.73 34.13
Vestas V52-850, 52m rotor 850 2,297 2,283 2,311 MWH 30.84 30.65 31.03
GE Wind Energy GE 900kW 900 2,126 2,110 2,142 MWH 26.96 26.76 27.16
NEG Micon NM52/900, 60 Hz, IEC II, Arctic 900 2,097 2,084 2,110 MWH 26.60 26.44 26.77
Suzlon S.64/950 950 3,139 3,121 3,157 MWH 37.72 37.50 37.94
NEG Micon NM54/950, Power Trim, IEC II b 950 2,234 2,220 2,248 MWH 26.85 26.67 27.02
Suzlon S.64/1000 1000 3,175 3,156 3,194 MWH 36.25 36.02 36.47
Suzlon S.62/1000 1000 2,776 2,758 2,795 MWH 31.69 31.48 31.90
Suzlon S.60/1000 1000 2,612 2,594 2,630 MWH 29.82 29.62 30.02
NEG Micon NM 60/1000 1000 2,552 2,537 2,567 MWH 29.13 28.97 29.30
Bonus 1 MW, 54.2m 1000 2,321 2,307 2,336 MWH 26.50 26.33 26.67
Fuhrlaender FL 1000, 54m 1000 2,178 2,164 2,192 MWH 24.86 24.70 25.02
Suzlon S.66/1250 1250 3,473 3,449 3,496 MWH 31.71 31.50 31.93
Suzlon S.64/1250 1250 3,279 3,256 3,302 MWH 29.94 29.73 30.15
DeWind DW1250 kW, 64m 1250 3,188 3,166 3,211 MWH 29.12 28.91 29.32
DeWind DW1250 kW, 62m 1250 3,014 2,992 3,036 MWH 27.52 27.32 27.73
Suzlon S.60/1250 1250 2,629 2,611 2,647 MWH 24.01 23.84 24.18
Bonus B1300, 62m  1300 3,122 3,102 3,142 MWH 27.41 27.23 27.59
Nordex N62/1300, 62m rotor 1300 2,809 2,789 2,829 MWH 24.67 24.49 24.84
Nordex N60/1300, 60m rotor 1300 2,637 2,618 2,657 MWH 23.16 22.99 23.33
NEG Micon NM 82/1500, 82m rotor 1500 5,071 5,044 5,098 MWH 38.59 38.38 38.80
Gamesa Eolica G80-1.5 MW 1500 4,738 4,711 4,764 MWH 36.05 35.85 36.26
GE Wind Energy GE 1.5 SL, 77m 1500 4,446 4,420 4,472 MWH 33.83 33.63 34.03
REpower REpower MD 77 1500 4,211 4,185 4,237 MWH 32.05 31.85 32.25
Nordex S77/1500, 77m rotor 1500 4,162 4,132 4,192 MWH 31.67 31.44 31.90
GE Wind Energy GE 1.5 S, 70.5m 1500 3,911 3,883 3,938 MWH 29.76 29.55 29.97
NEG Micon NM 72C/1.5, 60 Hz 1500 3,853 3,826 3,880 MWH 29.32 29.12 29.53
REpower REpower MD 70 1500 3,672 3,645 3,698 MWH 27.94 27.74 28.15
Nordex S70/1500, 70m rotor 1500 3,671 3,643 3,699 MWH 27.94 27.73 28.15
NEG Micon NM82, IEC III 1650 5,026 4,996 5,055 MWH 34.77 34.57 34.98
NEG Micon NM 72, IEC I 1650 3,923 3,895 3,951 MWH 27.14 26.95 27.34
Vestas V66-1650, 66m rotor 1650 3,255 3,231 3,278 MWH 22.52 22.36 22.68
Vestas V66-1.75MW 1750 4,128 4,102 4,155 MWH 26.93 26.76 27.10
Vestas V80-1800 IEC class I 1800 4,914 4,880 4,947 MWH 31.16 30.95 31.38
Vestas V80-1800 IEC class II 1800 4,738 4,705 4,771 MWH 30.05 29.84 30.26
DeWind DW2000 kW, 80m 2000 4,996 4,963 5,030 MWH 28.52 28.33 28.71
Gamesa Eolica G80-2.0 MW 2000 4,972 4,939 5,005 MWH 28.38 28.19 28.57
REpower REpower MM 82 2000 4,933 4,901 4,965 MWH 28.16 27.97 28.34
Bonus 2MW, 76m 2000 4,498 4,467 4,529 MWH 25.67 25.49 25.85
Lagerwey LW72, 71.2m rotor 2000 4,112 4,082 4,143 MWH 23.47 23.30 23.65
REpower REpower MM 70 2000 3,780 3,750 3,810 MWH 21.57 21.40 21.74
Nordex N90/2300, 90m rotor 2300 6,131 6,089 6,172 MWH 30.43 30.22 30.63
Bonus 2.3 MW, 82.4m 2300 5,321 5,285 5,358 MWH 26.41 26.23 26.59
Nordex N80/2500, 80m rotor 2500 4,836 4,798 4,874 MWH 22.08 21.91 22.26

 

Now, if you combine the above annual generation or capacity factor with the capital cost and operating costs (fixed and variable O&M), and using a project finance model (30% equity, 70% debt), the first year tariff (feed-in-tariff) can be computed to meet minimum equity return requirements (e.g. 16% p.a.).

The following table shows the relative costs of a number of WTG from various manufacturers:

 

SUMMARY OF PRICE LIST
          2004 2011 2.50% 1.189
No. Manufacturer’s Name Power Rating (KW) FOB Port of Exit (US$) FOB Cost / KW (US$/KW) CIF Manila Landed Cost (US$) Landed Cost / KW (US$/KW) USED Adjustment Factor
                 
1 Fuhrlander (Germany) 100 238,967 2,390 298,708 2,987   1
2 Norwin A/S (Denmark) 150 352,444 2,350 440,555 2,937   1.1
3 Norwin A/S (Denmark) 225 486,666 2,163 608,333 2,704   1.5
4 Fuhrlander (Germany) 250 517,037 2,068 646,296 2,585   1.4
4a Suzlon 350 740,619 2,116 925,773 2,645   1.14
5 Norwin A/S (Denmark) 600 1,094,511 1,824 1,368,138 2,280   1.35
6 Norwin A/S (Denmark) 750 1,318,843 1,758 1,648,553 2,198   1.55
7 Fuhrlander (Germany) 800 1,399,041 1,749 1,748,802 2,186   1.4
7a GE Wind Turbine (Germany) 900 1,866,192 2,074 2,332,740 2,592   1.15
7b Suzlon 950 950 1,357,564 1,429 1,696,955 1,786   1.6
8 Mitsubishi Heavy Ind. (Japan) 1,000 1,331,328 1,331 1,664,160 1,664   1.6
9 DeWind (UK) 1,250 1,496,708 1,197 1,870,885 1,497   1.05
10 GE Wind Turbine (Germany) 1,500 1,600,353 1,067 2,000,441 1,334   1.02
11 Mitsubishi Heavy Ind. (Japan) 2,000 1,913,784 957 2,392,230 1,196   1.15
11a Suzlon 2100 2,100 1,783,029 849 2,228,786 1,061 1 1

 

With the overnight capital cost and operating costs (fixed and variable) and the WTG installed capacity and annual capacity factor obtained by MONTE CARLO SIMULATION, a project finance model with MONTE CARLO SIMULATION was prepared and the results are shown below:

 

The inputs & assumptions sheet are shown below:

 

Project Site Name & Location – technology Onshore Wind 30 mw
Renewable Energy Source – fuel Wind
Hours per yr 8760
   
Timing  
  Construction Period (from FC) (months) – maximum 36 months 24
  Operating Period (yrs from COD) – maximum 30 yrs 25
  Yrs from base year CPI & Forex (2009) for FIT 3
  Yrs from base year CPI (2011) for CAPEX 1
  Yrs from base year CPI (2011) for OPEX 2
Construction Sources and Uses of Funds, $000  
  Uses of Fund:  
    Land Cost $220
    EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport, Access Roads) $30,036
    Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $1,511
    Sub-Station Facility $143
    Development & Other Costs $1,400
    Construction Contingency $2,705
    Value Added Tax $2,985
    Financing Costs $3,134
    Initial Working Capital $320
  Total Uses of Fund – $000 $42,454
                                 – PhP 000 2,095,157
  Sources of Fund:  
    Debt $29,370
    Equity $13,084
  Total Sources of Fund $42,454
   
  Construction Unit Costs (US$/kW):  
    EPC Cost $1,403
    Plant Cost (Excluding VAT, Financing, Working Capital) $1,672
    All-in Project Cost $1,983
  Target EPC Cost $1,600
  Variance -$197
Model Check:  
Balance Sheet OK
Foreign Debt Amortization OK
Local Debt Amortization OK
Depreciation OK
Sources and Uses of Funds  OK
Debt-to-Equity Ratio  OK
   
Base yrs and Commercial Operating Date  
  Base yr CPI & Forex for FiT 2009
  Base yr CPI for CAPEX 2011
  Base yr CPI for OPEX 2011
   
  Commercial Operating Date 2012
   

 

Stochastic Model 0 kW
Technical and EPC Assumptions GE 1.5 S, 70.5m 1500
  Unit Capacity of Plant (MW/unit) 1.427  
  No. of Units (unit) 15  
  Gross Installed Capacity (MW) 21.41  
  Plant Availability Factor, % 28.89% 29.76
  Guaranteed Efficiency Factor, % 85.90%  
  Allowance for losses & own use, % 2.97%  
  Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, % 24.08%  
  Net Electrical Output (MWh in 1st yr) 45,167  
  Plant Degradation, % p.a. (1-20 yrs) 0.19% % LC
  Land cost, $000 $211.50 100.0%
  Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $989.31 0.0%
  Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 9.5% 100.0%
  Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 29.0% 66.0%
  Transmission Line Distance (km) 15.84  
  T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $91.75 100.0%
  Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $137.24 100.0%
  Access Roads ($000/km) $49.57 100.0%
  Distance of Access Road (km) 14.84  
  Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 2.1% 100.0%
  VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
  Customs Duty 0% 100.0%
  Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 1.0% 100.0%
  Contingency (% of Total Cost) 8.1% 75.0%
press ctrl + d to set NPV (cell G28) to zero (deterministic) (58,647)
Operating Assumptions   Equity IRR
  Feed-in-Tariff (PhP/kWh) – 8.53 FIT 6.778 14.97%
  Duration of FiT (yrs) 20 Project IRR
  Tariff post FiT period (PhP/kWh) 7.000 12.40%
  FiT using Asset Base Methodology (PhP/kWh) 7.372 7.372
  Annual CER Volume (tCO2e/yr) and $/tCO2e – not used    
     
  O&M Cost ($000/unit/yr) – fix O&M $38.01 fix
  Spare Parts, Tools & Equipment ($000/MW/yr) – var O&M $4.83 var
  O&M + Spares as % of EPC, T/L, S/S 2.13%  
  Refurbishment Cost (% of EPC) 29%  
  Timing of Refurbishment (yr from COD) 10  
  G&A ($000/yr) – fix O&M $27.27 fix
  Fuel Cost (switch for Biomass: 1=yes, 0=no) 0 $/MT
  Average Fuel Cost (PhP/mt)                   –   $0.00
  Fuel Rate (kWh/mt)                   –    
  Average Fuel Consumption (mt/yr)                     – net
  Average Unit Cost of Fuel (PhP/kWh) – gross                  –    0.000
Receivables, Payables, Inventory, VAT and Incentives receivable payable
  Days Receivable, Payable and Inventory 30 30
  VAT Recovery, % 70%   Inventory
  Timing of VAT recovery (yrs after COD) 5 60
  Type of incentives (1 = NO, 2 = BOI, 3 = PEZA) 2 BOI

 

   
Debt and Equity Assumptions  
Local/Foreign Capital Mix:  
  Local Capital 37.5%
  Foreign Capital 62.5%
   
Debt:  
  Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 1.94%
  Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.51%
  Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
  Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
  Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 7.69%
  Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
  Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (months) 6
  Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (months) 6
  Debt Ratio 69%
  Total Local Debt ($000) – 30% $2,834
  Total Foreign Debt ($000) – 70% $26,536
    Total Debt Amount ($000) $29,370
   
Equity: 16.00%
  Equity Ratio 31%
  Equity Investment $13,084
  Cost of Equity (Onshore Equity IRR) – Nominal 14.97%
  Cost of Equity (Onshore Equity IRR) – Real 10.54%
press ctrl + e to run Monte Carlo Simulation (stochastic)
WACC pre-tax 10.60%
WACC after-tax 9.54%
   
Tax Assumptions  
  Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 7
  Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 10%
  Property tax (from COD) 1.5%
  Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
  Local Business Tax 1.0%
  Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
  ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
  Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
  Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
  Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
  PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Economic Assumptions  
  Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2009 47.8125
  Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (2011) 49.3514
  Base Local CPI – 2009 160.00
  Annual Local CPI 4.0%
  Annual US CPI 2.0%
  Annual Peso Depreciation Rate 2.0%
   

 

The sensitivity analysis worksheet shows the MONTE CARLO SIMULATION results for 1,000 trials:

 

Stochastic Model      
  Equity Returns
press ctrl + W to run NPV IRR PAYBACK
1,000 (34,014) 15.52% 10.11
Mean 15,197 16.48% 8.98
Standard error 6,258 0.11% 0.07
Median 1,857 16.03% 9.31
Standard deviation 197,908 3.41% 2.10
Variance 39,167,725,335 0.12% 4.43
Skewness 0.193 0.537 -0.154
Kurtosis 2.878 3.190 2.389
       
Expected value = 15,197 16.48% 8.98
The standard deviation*1.96 = 387,900 6.68% 4.12
95% of all outcomes, max = 403,097 23.17% 13.11
95% of all outcomes, min = -372,704 9.80% 4.86

 

Stochastic Model      
  Project Returns
press ctrl + W to run NPV IRR PAYBACK
1,000 (533,144) 12.38% 7.29
Mean -320,077 13.28% 7.05
Standard error 8,189 0.07% 0.03
Median -326,258 13.07% 6.98
Standard deviation 258,974 2.11% 1.10
Variance 67,067,422,357 0.04% 1.21
Skewness -0.133 0.274 0.486
Kurtosis 2.853 2.920 3.214
       
Expected value = -320,077 13.28% 7.05
The standard deviation*1.96 = 507,589 4.14% 2.15
95% of all outcomes, max = 187,512 17.42% 9.20
95% of all outcomes, min = -827,666 9.14% 4.89

 

Stochastic Model Net Profit pre-Tax Feed-in
  After Tax WACC Tariff
press ctrl + W to run Million PhP % PhP/kWh
1,000 1,809 10.47% 6.677
Mean 1,443 11.22% 6.597
Standard error 8 0.04% 0.012
Median 1,431 11.07% 6.613
Standard deviation 239 1.17% 0.370
Variance 57,157 0.01% 0.137
Skewness 0.148 0.652 -0.051
Kurtosis 2.940 3.584 1.906
       
Expected value = 1,443 11.22% 6.597
The standard deviation*1.96 = 469 2.30% 0.726
95% of all outcomes, max = 1,911 13.52% 7.323
95% of all outcomes, min = 974 8.91% 5.871

 

Please email me if you have further questions:

 

energydataexpert@gmail.com

 

 

 

 

 

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