Monte Carlo Simulation in Project Finance Modeling – free demo model

December 26th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo Simulation in Project Finance Modeling – free demo model

Your energy technology selection and project finance modeling expert is pleased to announce that you can now download a free demo model for Stochastic analysis of the risks in a biomass direct combustion power plant. (Other MCS models are available for renewable energy, conventional, fossil, nuclear power generation technologies) More »

Sample Project Finance Model

November 28th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Sample Project Finance Model

Here is a sample project finance model for a biomass thermal power plant that can be customized for your specific need: (Advanced regulator model)

adv-biomass-direct-combustion-model4-demo9

The same model above is also presented in just one worksheet (tab) so you would be able to understand better the structure of a project finance model: (OMT Energy Enterprises model)

omt-biomass-direct-combustion-model4-demo9

A sample non-thermal power plant (no fuel GHV and no fuel cost) can also be downloaded:

adv-mini-hydro-model3-demo5

A sample liquid fossil thermal power plant (with fuel GHV, fuel density and fuel cost) is also available:

adv-diesel-genset-model3-demo5

Email me if you need customization:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

You may order on-line any project finance model of any renewable, conventional, fossil, nuclear, combined heat and power, and energy storage power generation technologies by visiting this website:

www.energydataexpert.com

Or please visit this blog for any power generation technology article:

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

Regards,

The energy technology expert and financial modeling expert

=======

The One Stop Place for All Power Generation Technology Summaries and Financial Models

This is the one single place to research all your power generation and fuel cycle technology briefs (write-ups) and sample project finance models so that in due time, you will be an energy technology and power generation expert capable of writing feasibility studies backed up by economic and financial analysis to recommend the best technology and fuel solution to management.

Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Technologies – a mini-lecture series with power point presentation and excel project finance models

Your energy technology selection expert is beginning a lecture series on power generation and fuel cycle technologies. This will involve a discussion on the principles of the technology, its history, capital and operating costs, benefits and risks.

Objectives

1) To provide the participants a basic understanding of the following commercially available:

– fuel cycle technologies

– power generation technologies, and

– energy storage technologies

2) To know the basic principles, costs, environmental impact, risks and applicability of each of these technologies, and

3) To present the technology roadmap of each of these technologies to guide us in the near term (next 20 years – up to 2020) and in the long term (next 50 years – up to 2050)

The Past

o Introduction – what-is-electricity

o How is Electricity Generated – generation-of-electricity

o History of Power Generation – history-of-power-generation

o The Complete Electric Power System (base load, intermediate & peaking loads)

The Present

o Commercially Available Fuel Technologies, Power Generation Technologies, and Energy Storage Technologies –

commercially-available-fuel-cycle-technologies

o Primary Energy Sources – primary-energy-sources

o Fuel Properties – fuel-properties

o For the commercially available technologies:

– Basic Principles

– Costs

– Environmental Impact

– Associated Risks

– Applicability

COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES:

The Future

o The Technology Roadmap: Vision, Portfolio, Approach, Global Drivers of Change, Cost of Not Yet Commercially Available Tech –

technology-roadmap

o The Near Term Fuel, Power Generation, and Energy Storage Technologies (up to 2020) –

near-term-energy-sources

o The Long Fuel, Power Generation, and Energy Storage Technologies (up to 2050) –

long-term-energy-sources

=========

The project finance models of the power generation technology selection expert are based on one model template; hence, the results are unique for the technology’s capital and operating costs, fuel properties and costs, energy conversion efficiency or heat rate, and energy resource availability and reliability.

The financial models are denominated in Philippine Pesos (PhP 47.00 = USD). You can easily convert to your own local currency by changing the base and forward fixed exchange rate (e.g. XXX 100.00 = USD, USD 1.00 = USD) and do a global replacement of all PhP with XXX currency.

SAMPLE PROJECT FINANCE MODELS:

RENEWABLE ENERGY

adv-biomass-cogeneration-model3-demo5 – process heat (steam) and power

adv-biomass-direct-combustion-model3-demo5 – bagasse, rice husk or wood waste fired boiler steam turbine generator

adv-biomass-gasification-model3-demo5 – gasification (thermal conversion in high temperature without oxygen or air, pyrolysis)

adv-biomass-igcc-model3-demo5 – integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology

adv-biomass-wte-model3-demo5 – waste-to-energy (WTE) technology for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal and treatment

adv-biomass-wte-model3-pyrolysis-demo5 – waste-to-energy (WTE) pyrolysis technology

adv-mini-hydro-model3-demo5 – run-of-river (mini-hydro) power plant

adv-concentrating-solar-power-csp-model3-demo5 – concentrating solar power (CSP) 400 MW

adv-solar-pv-1-mw-model3-demo5 – solar PV technology 1 MW Chinese

adv-solar-pv-25-mw-model3-demo5 – solar PV technology 25 MW European and Non-Chinese (Korean, Japanese, US)

adv-wind-onshore-model3-demo5 – includes 81 wind turbine power curves from onshore WTG manufacturers

adv-wind-offshore-model3-demo5 – includes 81 wind turbine power curves from  offshore WTG manufacturers

adv-ocean-thermal-model3_10-mw-demo5 – ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 10 MW

adv-ocean-thermal-model3_50-mw-demo5 – ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 50 MW

CONVENTIONAL, FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

adv-geo-thermal-model3-demo5 – geothermal power plant  100 MW

adv-large-hydro-model3-demo5 – large hydro power plant 500 MW

adv-coal-fired-cfb-thermal-model3_50-mw-demo5 – subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

adv-coal-fired-cfb-thermal-model3_135-mw-demo5– subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 135 MW

adv-coal-fired-pc-subcritical-thermal-model3-demo5– subcritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 400 MW

adv-coal-fired-pc-supercritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 500 MW

adv-coal-fired-pc-ultrasupercritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – ultrasupercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 650 MW

adv-diesel-genset-model3-demo5 – diesel-fueled genset (compression ignition engine) technology 50 MW

adv-fuel-oil-genset-model3-demo5 – fuel oil (bunker oil) fired genset (compression ignition engine) technology 100 MW

adv-fuel-oil-thermal-model3-demo5 – fuel oil (bunker oil) fired oil thermal technology 600 MW

adv-natgas-combined-cycle-model3-demo5 – natural gas combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) 500 MW

adv-natgas-simple-cycle-model3-demo5 – natural gas simple cycle (open cycle) gas turbine (OCGT) 70 MW

adv-natgas-thermal-model3-demo5 – natural gas thermal 200 MW

adv-petcoke-fired-pc-subcritical-thermal-model3-demo5– petroleum coke (petcoke) fired subcritical thermal 220 MW

adv-nuclear-phwr-model3-demo5 – nuclear (uranium) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) technology 1330 MW

WASTE HEAT RECOVERY BOILER (DIESEL genset; GASOLINE genset; PROPANE, LPG or NATURAL GAS simple cycle)

adv-coal-fired-cfb-thermal-model3_50-mw-chp-demo5 – combined heat and power (CHP)  circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

adv-diesel-genset-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5– diesel genset (diesel, gas oil) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

adv-fuel-oil-genset-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – fuel oil (bunker) genset and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

adv-gasoline-genset-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – gasoline genset (gasoline, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

adv-propane-simple-cycle-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – simple cycle GT (propane) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

adv-simple-cycle-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5– simple cycle GT (natural gas, land fill gas, LPG) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

=========

Should you need the actual models (not demo) that could be revised for your own needs (additional revenue streams, additional expense accounts, additional balance sheet accounts, etc.), you may:

Email me:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit me:

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

THANK YOU

=======

 

HOW MINE-MOUTH POWER PLANT DEVELOPMENT WILL LOWER ELECTRICITY COST IN THE PHILIPPINES

November 20th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

HOW MINE-MOUTH POWER PLANT DEVELOPMENT WILL LOWER ELECTRICITY COST IN THE PHILIPPINES

By: Arnulfo A. Robles, Ismael U. Ocampo and Mars T. Ocampo

With valuable insights from: Dr. Guillermo R. Balce

Paper was Presented during the COAL BUSINESS POLICY FORUM 2016 at the New World Hotel, Makati, 17 November 2016

Abstract

The development of coal-fired mine-mouth power plants in the Philippines is one measure that can address the country’s need for electricity cost reduction, energy supply security and a shift from coal to renewable energy.

The use of mine-mouth power plants as a low-cost electricity development option in the USA, Thailand, Indonesia, Laos and Mongolia are cited as examples that can guide the Philippines. A review of coal resources in the country indicates 10 potential sites for mine-mouth power plants distributed in proximity to the electricity grid and HVDC substations. The estimated cost of generating electricity from these sites ranges from Php2.61/kwh to Php4.45/kwh, which is significantly lower than the average generation cost of Php5.425 in 2014.

Because mine-mouth power plants use indigenous coal resources, they can reduce the Philippines’ exposure to coal price volatility and protect the country from coal supply disruption due to commercial and political risks.

Coal-fired mine-mouth power plants utilizing circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC) technology and low calorific value lignite can be converted to biomass-fired plants, which can use agricultural waste or wood chips sourced from systematic management of forest areas near plant sites. Thus, coal-fired mine-mouth power development is a potential measure in the country’s quest to shift from coal to renewable energy.

We therefore recommend that coal-fired mine-mouth power plants be given an incentive of priority dispatch similar to renewable energy plants. Benefits to host communities should be increased from 0.01 to 0.02 PhP/kWh (DOE 1-94) to encourage hosting of coal-biomass-fired mine-mouth power plants. COC holders and power plant investors should be encouraged to operate commercial biomass farms or industrial forest management areas in the vicinity of the plants to provide continuous fuel supply. The increment of 0.01 PhP/kWh may be shared among the barangays, municipalities and provinces to encourage the LGUs to host such power plants.

Inclusive economic growth is further assured by organizing the nearby communities into forest management cooperatives to plant and grow appropriate fast-growing tree species to supply the wood chip requirements of the coal-biomass-fired power plant. For instance, planting rubber trees that would provide rubber sap to a nearby rubber factory after 5 years would be ideal. This would provide immediate income after only 5 years up to 10 years when the rubber trees would be fully mature for wood chipping as they no longer produce rubber sap.

By planting specific areas in an organized manner, a continuous year-round supply of biomass wood chips is assured for the power plant, thereby extending the life of the mine-mouth coal reserves. Moreover, the biomass tree farm would ensure ecological balance within the surface/strip mine area. Once the coal reserves are exhausted or deemed expensive to mine, the biomass tree farm would ensure continued power plant operation, provide steady income to local communities and assure the supply of rubber sap to a nearby raw rubber factory.

Email me for the complete presentation, pictures of mine-mouth power plants, and calculation tables.

energydataexpert@gmail.com

mars_Ocampo@yahoo.com

You may download the complete document and presentation materials (in pdf format).

mine-mouth-power-plants-paper-11152016-final2

mine-mouth-power-plants-presentation-11152016-final-combined

=====

Sample Project Finance Model

Here is a sample project finance model for a biomass thermal power plant that can be customized for your specific need: (Advanced regulator model)

adv-biomass-direct-combustion-model4-demo9

The same model above is also presented in just one worksheet (tab) so you would be able to understand better the structure of a project finance model: (OMT Energy Enterprises model)

omt-biomass-direct-combustion-model4-demo9

A sample non-thermal power plant (no fuel GHV and no fuel cost) can also be downloaded:

adv-mini-hydro-model3-demo5

A sample liquid fossil thermal power plant (with fuel GHV, fuel density and fuel cost) is also available:

adv-diesel-genset-model3-demo5

Email me if you need customization:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

You may order on-line any project finance model of any renewable, conventional, fossil, nuclear, combined heat and power, and energy storage power generation technologies by visiting this website:

www.energydataexpert.com

Or please visit this blog for any power generation technology article:

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

Regards,

The energy technology expert and financial modeling expert

 

 

Reducing the High Cost of Philippine Electricity

October 22nd, 2016 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

Reducing the High Cost of Philippine Electricity

After over 100 days, the DOE and the DU30 Administration has still no CONCRETE LONG-TERM PLAN and STRATEGY on HOW TO REDUCE ELECTRICITY COSTS – among the top 3 costliest power in ASIA if we include AUSTRALIA.

Yes you are right, the new SECRETARY of DOE has not yet developed, proposed and vetted to the public and stake holders their concrete short-term and long-term plan and strategy on how to reduce the country’s electricity costs.

All that can be heard are plans to expand RENEWABLE ENERGY technologies such as solar, wind, biomass, mini-hydro – most of which are too small a capacity and expensive compared to the current grid rate of 5-6 PhP/kWh provided mainly by the base load coal thermal, natural gas combined cycle gas turbine, geothermal, large hydro, and peak load oil thermal, diesel gensets and pumped hydro. More »

The One Stop Place for All Power Generation Technology Summaries and Financial Models

September 25th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in power generation technologies

The One Stop Place for All Power Generation Technology Summaries and Financial Models

This is the one single place to research all your power generation and fuel cycle technology briefs (write-ups) and sample project finance models so that in due time, you will be an energy technology and power generation expert capable of writing feasibility studies backed up by economic and financial analysis to recommend the best technology and fuel solution to management.

Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Technologies – a mini-lecture series with power point presentation and excel project finance models

Your energy technology selection expert is beginning a lecture series on power generation and fuel cycle technologies. This will involve a discussion on the principles of the technology, its history, capital and operating costs, benefits and risks.

Objectives

1) To provide the participants a basic understanding of the following commercially available:

– fuel cycle technologies

– power generation technologies, and

– energy storage technologies

2) To know the basic principles, costs, environmental impact, risks and applicability of each of these technologies, and

3) To present the technology roadmap of each of these technologies to guide us in the near term (next 20 years – up to 2020) and in the long term (next 50 years – up to 2050)

The Past

o Introduction – what-is-electricity

o How is Electricity Generated – generation-of-electricity

o History of Power Generation – history-of-power-generation

o The Complete Electric Power System (base load, intermediate & peaking loads)

The Present

o Commercially Available Fuel Technologies, Power Generation Technologies, and Energy Storage Technologies –

commercially-available-fuel-cycle-technologies

o Primary Energy Sources – primary-energy-sources

o Fuel Properties – fuel-properties

o For the commercially available technologies:

– Basic Principles

– Costs

– Environmental Impact

– Associated Risks

– Applicability

COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES:

The Future

o The Technology Roadmap: Vision, Portfolio, Approach, Global Drivers of Change, Cost of Not Yet Commercially Available Tech –

technology-roadmap

o The Near Term Fuel, Power Generation, and Energy Storage Technologies (up to 2020) –

near-term-energy-sources

o The Long Fuel, Power Generation, and Energy Storage Technologies (up to 2050) –

long-term-energy-sources

=========

The project finance models of the power generation technology selection expert are based on one model template; hence, the results are unique for the technology’s capital and operating costs, fuel properties and costs, energy conversion efficiency or heat rate, and energy resource availability and reliability.

The financial models are denominated in Philippine Pesos (PhP 47.00 = USD). You can easily convert to your own local currency by changing the base and forward fixed exchange rate (e.g. XXX 100.00 = USD, USD 1.00 = USD) and do a global replacement of all PhP with XXX currency.

SAMPLE PROJECT FINANCE MODELS:

Sample Project Finance Model

Here is a sample project finance model for a biomass thermal power plant that can be customized for your specific need: (Advanced regulator model)

adv-biomass-direct-combustion-model4-demo9

The same model above is also presented in just one worksheet (tab) so you would be able to understand better the structure of a project finance model: (OMT Energy Enterprises model)

omt-biomass-direct-combustion-model4-demo9

A sample non-thermal power plant (no fuel GHV and no fuel cost) can also be downloaded:

adv-mini-hydro-model3-demo5

A sample liquid fossil thermal power plant (with fuel GHV, fuel density and fuel cost) is also available:

adv-diesel-genset-model3-demo5

Email me if you need customization:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

You may order on-line any project finance model of any renewable, conventional, fossil, nuclear, combined heat and power, and energy storage power generation technologies by visiting this website:

www.energydataexpert.com

Or please visit this blog for any power generation technology article:

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

Regards,

The energy technology expert and financial modeling expert

=======

SAMPLE PROJECT FINANCE MODELS:

RENEWABLE ENERGY

adv-biomass-cogeneration-model3-demo5 – process heat (steam) and power

adv-biomass-direct-combustion-model3-demo5 – bagasse, rice husk or wood waste fired boiler steam turbine generator

adv-biomass-gasification-model3-demo5 – gasification (thermal conversion in high temperature without oxygen or air, pyrolysis)

adv-biomass-igcc-model3-demo5 – integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology

adv-biomass-wte-model3-demo5 – waste-to-energy (WTE) technology for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal and treatment

adv-biomass-wte-model3-pyrolysis-demo5 – waste-to-energy (WTE) pyrolysis technology

adv-mini-hydro-model3-demo5 – run-of-river (mini-hydro) power plant

adv-concentrating-solar-power-csp-model3-demo5 – concentrating solar power (CSP) 400 MW

adv-solar-pv-1-mw-model3-demo5 – solar PV technology 1 MW Chinese

adv-solar-pv-25-mw-model3-demo5 – solar PV technology 25 MW European and Non-Chinese (Korean, Japanese, US)

adv-wind-onshore-model3-demo5 – includes 81 wind turbine power curves from onshore WTG manufacturers

adv-wind-offshore-model3-demo5 – includes 81 wind turbine power curves from  offshore WTG manufacturers

adv-ocean-thermal-model3_10-mw-demo5 – ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 10 MW

adv-ocean-thermal-model3_50-mw-demo5 – ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 50 MW

CONVENTIONAL, FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

adv-geo-thermal-model3-demo5 – geothermal power plant  100 MW

adv-large-hydro-model3-demo5 – large hydro power plant 500 MW

adv-coal-fired-cfb-thermal-model3_50-mw-demo5 – subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

adv-coal-fired-cfb-thermal-model3_135-mw-demo5 – subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 135 MW

adv-coal-fired-pc-subcritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – subcritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 400 MW

adv-coal-fired-pc-supercritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 500 MW

adv-coal-fired-pc-ultrasupercritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – ultrasupercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 650 MW

adv-diesel-genset-model3-demo5 – diesel-fueled genset (compression ignition engine) technology 50 MW

adv-fuel-oil-genset-model3-demo5 – fuel oil (bunker oil) fired genset (compression ignition engine) technology 100 MW

adv-fuel-oil-thermal-model3-demo5 – fuel oil (bunker oil) fired oil thermal technology 600 MW

adv-natgas-combined-cycle-model3-demo5 – natural gas combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) 500 MW

adv-natgas-simple-cycle-model3-demo5 – natural gas simple cycle (open cycle) gas turbine (OCGT) 70 MW

adv-natgas-thermal-model3-demo5 – natural gas thermal 200 MW

adv-petcoke-fired-pc-subcritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – petroleum coke (petcoke) fired subcritical thermal 220 MW

adv-nuclear-phwr-model3-demo5 – nuclear (uranium) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) technology 1330 MW

WASTE HEAT RECOVERY BOILER (DIESEL genset; GASOLINE genset; PROPANE, LPG or NATURAL GAS simple cycle)

adv-coal-fired-cfb-thermal-model3_50-mw-chp-demo5 – combined heat and power (CHP)  circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

adv-diesel-genset-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – diesel genset (diesel, gas oil) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

adv-fuel-oil-genset-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – fuel oil (bunker) genset and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

adv-gasoline-genset-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – gasoline genset (gasoline, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

adv-propane-simple-cycle-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – simple cycle GT (propane) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

adv-simple-cycle-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – simple cycle GT (natural gas, land fill gas, LPG) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

=========

Should you need the actual models (not demo) that could be revised for your own needs (additional revenue streams, additional expense accounts, additional balance sheet accounts, etc.), you may:

Email me:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit me:

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

THANK YOU

=======

 

Reducing Traffic on EDSA – applying science and sound engineering principles

September 18th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in EDSA traffic

Reducing Traffic on EDSA – applying science and sound engineering principles

The HPG and MMDA solution to reducing EDSA stand-still traffic is making things worse. Putting those concrete and plastic dividers along EDSA is creating too much skin friction similar to water flow inside a water hose and pipe. A parallel plate inside a pipe is known in engineering to create skin friction that prevents the faster flow of the liquid inside the pipe.

That is the same phenomena experienced now along the entire stretch of EDSA. The more barriers you put up, the more traffic you create. More »

The Alternatives to Nuclear Power and Expensive Renewable Energy Technologies

September 8th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation, Uncategorized

The Alternatives to Nuclear Power and Expensive Renewable Energy Technologies

Talks about using nuclear energy and reviving the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) and to use rapidly getting cheaper renewable energy such as solar PV and wind are all long-shots in making Philippine electricity cheaper and more reliable.

What the country needs are safe, indigenous and base load power plants.

The nuclear option is a long-way to go as the country needs to develop and upgrade its nuclear regulatory framework (our Philippine Atomic Energy Commission is a research agency, not a nuclear regulator), the BNPP has to be technically, environmentally, geologically and economically studied to see if it is safe, its components are still in good working order or needs to be replaced and upgraded, the country is equipped to handle any nuclear mishaps, accidents, terrorist attacks, and the additional $1 billion to upgrade and make operational and cost of nuclear fuel rods will still allow BNPP to make electricity below grid rate of 5-6 P/kWh. We can’t reduce power costs unless we introduce power plants that are cheaper to build, more efficient to run, environmentally and geologically compliant, and have secure and cheaper sources of fuels. More »

The Ultimate Solution to High Electricity Costs in the Philippines

August 22nd, 2016 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

The Ultimate Solution to High Electricity Costs in the Philippines

Further to my previous blog on How to Reduce Electricity Costs, the following discussion will present the Ultimate Solution to reducing Philippine electricity costs – the highest rate in Asia.

The yardstick for comparing the various technologies of unequal lifetimes and capacity is the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) also called the long run marginal cost (LRMC) which is the sum of annualized capital cost, fixed O&M, variable O&M and fuel/lube costs. On the other hand, the short run marginal cost (SRMC) is the sum of all variable O&M and fuel/lube costs. The LRMC is used in long-term least cost capacity expansion planning by the DOE while the SRMC is used in short-term optimal dispatch such as the WESM hourly dispatch by the market operator (PEMC).

The LCOE or LRMC and SRMC may be computed using a simple cost formula developed by US NREL or by yours truly (RP MTO price formula – the grossed-up US NREL cost formula that considers depreciation and income tax rate). Download this file for data and formulas:

Cost of power generation technologies

However, in this presentation below, I used the more accurate project finance model similar to the NREB project finance model template approved by the ERC to calculate the first year tariff, LRMC, SRMC, equity and project IRR, NPV and PAYBACK, and DSCR (min, ave, max).

More »

Why Philippine Electricity Reserves are always not adequate?

August 5th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in optimal load dispatch

Why Philippine Electricity Reserves are always not adequate?

This is a question perennially asked by ordinary citizens, businessmen, investors, and now legislators. It is happening as if no one is minding the store.

Well, I have some ideas that will open our eyes on the real score.

We lack power reserves, the difference between peak demand and dependable capacity. The key word is dependable capacity, and not installed capacity.

Adequate power reserves are needed so that in the event that the largest single unit in the grid goes off-line, these back-up power reserves kick in with sufficient ramp-up rate to prop-up the supply immediately so that the grid remains stable and does not go into load-dropping mode to equalize supply with demand. More »

Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Technologies – a Quick Guide to Energy Articles and Financial Modeling

July 9th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Technologies – a mini-lecture series with power point presentation and excel project finance models

Your energy technology selection expert is beginning a lecture series on power generation and fuel cycle technologies. This will involve a discussion on the principles of the technology, its history, capital and operating costs, benefits and risks.

Objectives

1) To provide the participants a basic understanding of the following commercially available:

– fuel cycle technologies

– power generation technologies, and

– energy storage technologies

2) To know the basic principles, costs, environmental impact, risks and applicability of each of these technologies, and

3) To present the technology roadmap of each of these technologies to guide us in the near term (next 20 years – up to 2020) and in the long term (next 50 years – up to 2050)

The Past

o Introduction – what-is-electricity

o How is Electricity Generated – generation-of-electricity

o History of Power Generation – history-of-power-generation

o The Complete Electric Power System (base load, intermediate & peaking loads)

The Present

o Commercially Available Fuel Technologies, Power Generation Technologies, and Energy Storage Technologies –

commercially-available-fuel-cycle-technologies

o Primary Energy Sources – primary-energy-sources

o Fuel Properties – fuel-properties

o For the commercially available technologies:

– Basic Principles

– Costs

– Environmental Impact

– Associated Risks

– Applicability

COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES:

The Future

o The Technology Roadmap: Vision, Portfolio, Approach, Global Drivers of Change, Cost of Not Yet Commercially Available Tech –

technology-roadmap

o The Near Term Fuel, Power Generation, and Energy Storage Technologies (up to 2020) –

near-term-energy-sources

o The Long Fuel, Power Generation, and Energy Storage Technologies (up to 2050) –

long-term-energy-sources

=========

The project finance models of the power generation technology selection expert are based on one model template; hence, the results are unique for the technology’s capital and operating costs, fuel properties and costs, energy conversion efficiency or heat rate, and energy resource availability and reliability.

The financial models are denominated in Philippine Pesos (PhP 47.00 = USD). You can easily convert to your own local currency by changing the base and forward fixed exchange rate (e.g. XXX 100.00 = USD, USD 1.00 = USD) and do a global replacement of all PhP with XXX currency.

SAMPLE PROJECT FINANCE MODELS:

Sample Project Finance Model

Here is a sample project finance model for a biomass thermal power plant that can be customized for your specific need: (Advanced regulator model)

adv-biomass-direct-combustion-model4-demo9

The same model above is also presented in just one worksheet (tab) so you would be able to understand better the structure of a project finance model: (OMT Energy Enterprises model)

omt-biomass-direct-combustion-model4-demo9

A sample non-thermal power plant (no fuel GHV and no fuel cost) can also be downloaded:

adv-mini-hydro-model3-demo5

A sample liquid fossil thermal power plant (with fuel GHV, fuel density and fuel cost) is also available:

adv-diesel-genset-model3-demo5

Email me if you need customization:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

You may order on-line any project finance model of any renewable, conventional, fossil, nuclear, combined heat and power, and energy storage power generation technologies by visiting this website:

www.energydataexpert.com

Or please visit this blog for any power generation technology article:

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

Regards,

The energy technology expert and financial modeling expert

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SAMPLE PROJECT FINANCE MODELS:

RENEWABLE ENERGY

adv-biomass-cogeneration-model3-demo5 – process heat (steam) and power

adv-biomass-direct-combustion-model3-demo5 – bagasse, rice husk or wood waste fired boiler steam turbine generator

adv-biomass-gasification-model3-demo5 – gasification (thermal conversion in high temperature without oxygen or air, pyrolysis)

adv-biomass-igcc-model3-demo5 – integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology

adv-biomass-wte-model3-demo5 – waste-to-energy (WTE) technology for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal and treatment

adv-biomass-wte-model3-pyrolysis-demo5 – waste-to-energy (WTE) pyrolysis technology

adv-mini-hydro-model3-demo5 – run-of-river (mini-hydro) power plant

adv-concentrating-solar-power-csp-model3-demo5 – concentrating solar power (CSP) 400 MW

adv-solar-pv-1-mw-model3-demo5 – solar PV technology 1 MW Chinese

adv-solar-pv-25-mw-model3-demo5 – solar PV technology 25 MW European and Non-Chinese (Korean, Japanese, US)

adv-wind-onshore-model3-demo5 – includes 81 wind turbine power curves from onshore WTG manufacturers

adv-wind-offshore-model3-demo5 – includes 81 wind turbine power curves from  offshore WTG manufacturers

adv-ocean-thermal-model3_10-mw-demo5 – ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 10 MW

adv-ocean-thermal-model3_50-mw-demo5 – ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 50 MW

CONVENTIONAL, FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

adv-geo-thermal-model3-demo5 – geothermal power plant  100 MW

adv-large-hydro-model3-demo5 – large hydro power plant 500 MW

adv-coal-fired-cfb-thermal-model3_50-mw-demo5 – subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

adv-coal-fired-cfb-thermal-model3_135-mw-demo5 – subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 135 MW

adv-coal-fired-pc-subcritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – subcritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 400 MW

adv-coal-fired-pc-supercritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 500 MW

adv-coal-fired-pc-ultrasupercritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – ultrasupercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 650 MW

adv-diesel-genset-model3-demo5 – diesel-fueled genset (compression ignition engine) technology 50 MW

adv-fuel-oil-genset-model3-demo5 – fuel oil (bunker oil) fired genset (compression ignition engine) technology 100 MW

adv-fuel-oil-thermal-model3-demo5 – fuel oil (bunker oil) fired oil thermal technology 600 MW

adv-natgas-combined-cycle-model3-demo5 – natural gas combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) 500 MW

adv-natgas-simple-cycle-model3-demo5 – natural gas simple cycle (open cycle) gas turbine (OCGT) 70 MW

adv-natgas-thermal-model3-demo5 – natural gas thermal 200 MW

adv-petcoke-fired-pc-subcritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – petroleum coke (petcoke) fired subcritical thermal 220 MW

adv-nuclear-phwr-model3-demo5 – nuclear (uranium) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) technology 1330 MW

WASTE HEAT RECOVERY BOILER (DIESEL genset; GASOLINE genset; PROPANE, LPG or NATURAL GAS simple cycle)

adv-coal-fired-cfb-thermal-model3_50-mw-chp-demo5 – combined heat and power (CHP)  circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

adv-diesel-genset-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – diesel genset (diesel, gas oil) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

adv-fuel-oil-genset-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – fuel oil (bunker) genset and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

adv-gasoline-genset-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – gasoline genset (gasoline, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

adv-propane-simple-cycle-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – simple cycle GT (propane) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

adv-simple-cycle-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – simple cycle GT (natural gas, land fill gas, LPG) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

=========

Should you need the actual models (not demo) that could be revised for your own needs (additional revenue streams, additional expense accounts, additional balance sheet accounts, etc.), you may:

Email me:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit me:

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

THANK YOU

=======

 

Indonesia bans all coal exports to the Philippines due to recurring Abu Sayaff piracy off Sulu Sea

June 27th, 2016 1 Comment   Posted in Philippine coal supply

With Indonesia cutting off 70% of our coal supplies for the coal-fired CFB power plants in the country, this will worsen with the Digong presumptive appointee to DENR Gina Lopez who has declared war on mining. More »

How to run the Advanced Project Finance Models from OMT (Renewable Energy and Non-RE)

June 24th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in project finance models

How to run the Advanced Project Finance Models from OMT (Renewable Energy and Non-RE)

Your energy and power expert and consultant on project development and project finance modeling has prepared a short guide for running the demo versions that are available by clicking on the links in some of the articles in this blog and profile.

FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS: More »

Congrats Cavs and all its supporters. Hard work and focus paid off, over-turned the law of averages

June 18th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in Law of Averages

Congrats Cavs and all its supporters. Hard work and focus paid off, over-turned the law of averages

The Law of Averages – the Golden State Warriors will defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers

The law of averages will finally catch game 7. With the Cavs playing superbly above their average and the Warriors playing badly below their average, the law of average will swing back to the neutral position – the Cavs will play badly below their average and the Warriors will play above their average to win game 7. That is why it is called the law of average. You have to hit highs and lows to arrive at the average.

Bet on the Warriors.

 

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) – Solar Thermal Power Generation Technology Model

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) – Solar Thermal Power Generation Technology Model

Your energy technology selection expert has developed a CSP Project Finance Model for use by CSP project developers.

It can help you prepare the feasibility study and design or optimize the various options to give you the lowest Levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

Given inputs on installed unit capacity, number of units, capacity factor, all-in capital cost $/kW, fixed O&M cost $/kW/year and variable O&M cost $/MWh, you can calibrate the model to meet your annual generation and determine first year tariff, short-run marginal running cost SRMC and long-run marginal running cost LRMC (also known as LCOE). More »

How the new President Duterte of the Philippines and its new DOE Secretary Cusi can reduce Philippine Electricity Cost – the most expensive power in Asia

May 23rd, 2016 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

How to reduce Philippine Electricity Cost – the most expensive power in Asia – to improve its competitiveness

On various occasions and public debates, there is a unified concern to lower Philippine electricity cost in order to improve the country’s competitiveness in order to attain inclusive economic growth.

However, reducing power costs, such as putting up more cheaper power plants like coal-fired power plants instead of expensive petroleum-based power plants and intermittent renewable energy power technologies have to be balanced with the need to reduce greenhouse gas (CO2), sulfur (SO2), NOX and particulate emission to mitigate climate change and air pollution. More »

Why Golden State and Cleveland will meet again in the NBA Finals – the secret

May 7th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in Basketball

Why Golden State and Cleveland will meet again in the NBA Finals – the secret

At last King James and the Cavaliers now know the secret of winning – the Golden State strategy – shoot 3s every 12 seconds and with 25% accuracy, will potentially get 3 x (24/12) x 25% x (60/24) = 3 x 2 x 25% x 2 = 3 points/minute. This means 3 x 12 = 36 points/quarter, or 36 x 4 = 144 points per game of 4 quarters.

Contrast this with old school of 2 points ever 24 seconds with 50% accuracy, will potentially get 2 x (24/24) x 50% x (60/24) = 2 x 1 x 50% x 2 = 2 points/minute or 2 x 12 = 24 points/quarter, or 24 x 4 = 96 points per game of 4 quarters.

Thus, a rapid firing team of 3 pointers with half the accuracy of an inside game team of 2 pointers will always win.

Hooray to Golden State’s Stephen Curry for this wonderful theory of winning basketball.

Long shot means long rebound and with spread out offense, greater chance of recovering a missed shot, over a short jumper or layup with short rebound going to defending team.

A low-post team will find it difficult to win over an outside-shooting team, even with lower accuracy as long as they keep attempting more shots than the low-post team with higher accuracy and scoring 3 points over 2 points.

Learn more about probability from Monte Carlo Simulation techniques applied in supply/demand/gap forecasting and project finance modeling to prioritize risks and how to mitigate the risks.

Cheers,

Marcial – the energy technology selection expert.

Coal Thermal and Clean-Coal Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Coal Thermal and Clean-Coal Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for the geothermal power generation technology using energy stored on the earth’s crust. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Solid fossil fuel such as coal (lignite, sub-bituminous, bituminous, etc.) are available in large quantities in many places around the world and will provide a cheap source of fuel to generated power in base-load coal-fired power plants using circulating fluidized bed (CFB) and the newer pulverized coal (PC) technologies such as super-critical and ultra-super-critical technologies.

More »

Nuclear Energy Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Nuclear Energy Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for a nuclear power generation technology. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Nuclear Energy stored on the earth’s crust during its creation, and its extraction and concentration using various methods such as chemical extraction and centrifuging has provided a great transition fuel for mankind as the world bids time to shift form fossil fuels that have limited life times (e.g. oil to be exhausted in 60 years, natural gas also in the same life time as oil, and coal to be consumed in 250 years) to unlimited renewable energy from the sun (solar PV, solar thermal, hydro, pumped storage, wind, ocean thermal, wave energy). The use of nuclear power has provided many countries with a cheap source of energy and power, though a number of safety issues and actual nuclear mishaps has occurred, notable of which is the Chernobyl in USSR and Fukushima in Japan.

More »

Combined Cycle and Simple (Open) Cycle Gas Turbine Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Combined Cycle and Simple (Open) Cycle Gas Turbine Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for the various natural gas-fired power generation technologies. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Natural gas is a clean fuel that may be used in simple cycle (open cycle or Brayton cycle) gas turbines such as those used in jet engines, or when the waste heat is recovered in a heat recovery boiler (Rankin cycle). This two cycles (Brayton and Rankin) combine to raise the overall thermal efficiency from 33% to over 54%.

More »

Geothermal Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Geothermal Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for the geothermal power generation technology using energy stored on the earth’s crust. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Energy stored on the earth’s crust during its creation, and its continued regeneration from nuclear reactions inside the earth to heat water that percolates into the earth’s crust is a continuing source of saturated and superheated steam which can be used to drive steam turbines in single and double flash steam cycles (but releasing the spent geothermal steam to the atmosphere), or using a binary fluid to capture the heat from geothermal fluids without the attendant problem of treating the spent geothermal fluid other than re-injecting it back to mother earth in an end-less cycle.

More »

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