Project Finance Model for Hybrid Power Plant / Multi-fuel System with CDM

January 9th, 2010 Comments Off Posted in financial models

Project Finance Model for Hybrid Power Plant / Multi-fuel System with CDM

During implementation of a project feasibility study for a natural gas pipeline that will serve an anchor load 250-500 mw natural gas-fired combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), it was felt that additional market for the excess Malampaya natural gas (300 mw surplus plus banked gas for sale) needs to be developed to improve the economics of the pipeline.

Doing a market, technical and feasibility study for this end-use conversion economics will thus entail developing a robust project finance model that is versatile enought to handle conversion of existing power generation and steam/process heat technologies (coal fired, bunker fired, diesel fired diesel electric generators, steam and process heat equipment, refrigeration) to natural gas firing.

The author, an energy technology and business development consultant, has prepared an Incremental Economics Conversion Model for comparing a base case (existing coal-fired or oil fired generation, process heat, refrigeration and air conditioning equipment) versus a more energy efficient, less polluting and cheaper to operate natural gas-fired equipment. More »

Project Finance Models for Power Plants with Carbon Credits under CDM (download file)

January 4th, 2010 2 Comments   Posted in financial models

Project Finance Models for Power Plants with Carbon Credits under CDM (download file)

Due to worldwide interest in carbon emission reduction credits thru the clean development mechanishm (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol to encourage renewable and energy efficiency improvement in power generation to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate global warming, I am issuing another model update for January 2009.  I also made some changes to working capital and all-in project cost estimation and loan amortization calculations.
Also due to numerous inquiries and tremendous interest, the deadline has been extend up to 31 January 2010.  Order now to get 70% discount on any project finance model of your choice.  This 2010 version now includes carbon emission reduction credits under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. It provides for one time cost for consultancy services and registration to the CDM Executive Board and annual carbon emission reduction credits net of annual fees for monitoring by local consultants and Executive Board.

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Impact of New Renewable Energy (RE) Law and its IRR on Electricity Price (Feed-In Tariff Calculation Procedure)

December 3rd, 2009 8 Comments   Posted in renewable energy

Impact of New RE Law and its IRR on Electricity Price

(Feed-In Tariff Calculation Procedure)

Energy Technology Conference & Exhibition 2009

By: Marcial T. Ocampo

Date: December 2, 2009

Venue: New World Hotel, Makati

Outline

  • Republic Act No. 9513 (RE Law)
  • DOE Circular No. DC2009-05-0008 (IRR)
  • DOE Circular No. DC2009-07-0011 (Guidelines)
  • Feed-In Tariff System
  • Financial Model – before and after RE Law
  • Mini Hydro -
  • Biomass -
  • Wind -
  • Solar – More »

Biomass, Coal and Oil Thermal, Diesel and CCGT Levelized Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model

November 29th, 2009 1 Comment   Posted in financial models

Biomass, Coal and Oil Thermal, Diesel and CCGT Levelized Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model

The following is a snippet of my state-of-the-art project finance model for calculating levelized tariff, levelized cost of energy, and financial model (generation, fuel requirement, income statement, cash flow statement, balance sheet and financial ratios). More »

Gas Turbine and CCGT LevelizedTariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model

November 26th, 2009 4 Comments   Posted in financial models

Gas Turbine and CCGT LevelizedTariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model

The following is a snippet of my state-of-the-art project finance model for calculating levelized tariff, levelized cost of energy, and financial model (generation, fuel requirement, income statement, cash flow statement, balance sheet and financial ratios).  To secure a copy of the spreadsheet, click the ENERGY DATA page for arrangements.

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Cogeneration Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model with CDM Carbon Credits

November 26th, 2009 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Cogeneration Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model

The following is a snippet of my state-of-the-art project finance model for calculating feed-in tariff, levelized cost of energy, and financial model (generation, fuel requirement, income statement, cash flow statement, balance sheet and financial ratios).  To secure a copy of the spreadsheet, click the ENERGY DATA page for arrangements.

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Hybrid Diesel Power Plant Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model

November 26th, 2009 2 Comments   Posted in financial models

Hybrid Diesel Power Plant Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model

The following is a snippet of my state-of-the-art project finance model for calculating feed-in tariff, levelized cost of energy, and financial model (generation, fuel requirement, income statement, cash flow statement, balance sheet and financial ratios).  To secure a copy of the spreadsheet, click the ENERGY DATA page for arrangements.

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Wind Energy Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model with CDM Carbon Credits

November 26th, 2009 1 Comment   Posted in financial models

Wind Energy Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model with CDM Carbon Credits

The following is a snippet of my state-of-the-art project finance model for calculating feed-in tariff, levelized cost of energy, and financial model (generation, fuel requirement, income statement, cash flow statement, balance sheet and financial ratios).  To secure a copy of the spreadsheet, click the ENERGY DATA page for arrangements.

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Solar PV Power Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Generation Cost and Financial Model with CDM Carbon Credit

November 26th, 2009 2 Comments   Posted in financial models

Solar PV Power Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Generation Cost and Financial Model with CDM Carbon Credits

The following is a snippet of my state-of-the-art project finance model for calculating feed-in tariff, levelized cost of energy, and financial model (generation, fuel requirement, income statement, cash flow statement, balance sheet and financial ratios).  To secure a copy of the spreadsheet, click the ENERGY DATA page for arrangements.

More »

Mini-Hydro Power Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Generation Cost and Financial Model with CDM Carbon Credits

November 26th, 2009 3 Comments   Posted in financial models

Mini-Hydro Power Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Generation Cost and Financial Model with CDM Carbon Credits

The following is a snippet of my state-of-the-art project finance model for calculating feed-in tariff, levelized cost of energy, and financial model (generation, fuel requirement, income statement, cash flow statement, balance sheet and financial ratios).  To secure a copy of the spreadsheet, click the ENERGY DATA page for arrangements.

More »

Biomass Energy Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model with CDM Carbon Credits

November 26th, 2009 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Biomass Energy Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Cost and Financial Model

The following is a snippet of my state-of-the-art project finance model for calculating feed-in tariff, levelized cost of energy, and financial model (generation, fuel requirement, income statement, cash flow statement, balance sheet and financial ratios).  To secure a copy of the spreadsheet, click the ENERGY DATA page for arrangements.

More »

How President Obama will lead America and the world out of the global financial crisis

November 20th, 2009 No Comments   Posted in global financial meltdown

How President Obama will lead America and the world out of the global financial crisis

I believe that once America finds its focus and reforms itself, it is also the missing link that will lead us out of the global financial crisis.

When I was a small boy in Musuan, Bukidnon, Island of Mindanao, Philippines, our small Musuan Agricultural College had an American priest Fr. Ahern and was host to 3 American Peace Corps volunteer couples who were experts in Agricultural Engineering.  This was during the years of my elementary education (1958-1964).  I learned my first words in English by playing with the children named Sandra Ford and Jimmy Brown, whose parents were Mr. & Mrs Ford and Mr. & Mrs. Brown.  I was then 3-5 years old and being a small kid with a sponge brain, I learned very quickly the proper American English by just playing with these playful kids.  Our small college was also regular recipient of American cheese courtesy of the People of the United States of Ameria – USAID.

America then was not an ugly word and I found the 3 American Peace Corps volunteers very helpful and nice to get along with.  My father then was Dr. Potenciano Tawatao, the only college physician, who at the dead of the night would deliver hundreds of babies among the various mothers in the small college community of Musuan.

I guess and its my wish that with the new President Barak Obama serving the American people and the peoples of the world, being an American brings both honor and joy to its citizens whenever they are away from US soil serving the world.  A great leader and its people serves and that is what it expected from each one of us – leaders of the new world.

Oil Crisis, US Recession and Global Financial Meltdown

As early as 2007, signs of economic recession have been observed throughout the world.  By end December 2007, the international price of crude oil went past $100 per barrel.  Continued speculation in the world markets as well as increased demand pushed the price to its maximum of $147 per barrel by July 2008.

From then on, it was a roller coaster ride and the price of crude oil dropped to $40-50 per barrel as off April 2009.  Oil currently sells at $80-85 per barrel as of November 2009.  US Banks and financial institutions began to request for US government bailout, some were allowed to fail, and the big US insurers and banks that were considered too big to fail were recipients of bailout funds from the outgoing Bush administration. More »

How to predict timing and quantity of pre-emptive safe discharge – a dam simulation model

November 14th, 2009 No Comments   Posted in environmental impacts

How to predict timing and quantity of pre-emptive safe discharge – a dam simulation model

THIS IS IT!  As the saying goes, a dam simulation model that could be easily implemented and calibrated with actual rainfall and river gauging data and compared with actual power generation and spillway discharge to predict dam height and dam water volume is now available to government agencies, dam operators, dam designers and ordinary laymen.  Please write the author for arrangements on how to secure this state-of-the-art dam simulation model. More »

How to evaluate economics of energy conversion – incremental analysis of two alternatives

November 14th, 2009 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to evaluate economics of energy conversion – incremental analysis of two alternatives

In our day to day life, each individual is always presented the dilemma of which of two or more alternatives is the best solution to a problem.

The same life’s problem is encountered by businesses, power generators and users of fuels and energy resources – which is more economical – using an old diesel engine to generate electricity or to convert to dual fueling with diesel/fuel oil and natural gas fuel or purchase a new diesel engine capable of running on dual fuels such as diesel/fuel oil and the cheaper natural gas.

Your energy technology expert has modified his reciprocating engine model to run on multiple fuels such as gasoline, diesel, biofuels, fuel oils, biogas, landfill gas or natural gas. More »

How to evaluate economic feasibility of a power plant project – use project finance model

November 9th, 2009 1 Comment   Posted in financial models

How to evaluate economic feasibility of a power plant project – use project finance model

If you are preparing a pre-feasibility study or a detailed feasibility study of a small or a large scale power plant project, it is best to use my latest state-of-the-art power plant and project finance model.

It includes a modeling of the plant capacity and heat rate degradation, overhaul cycle and plant operating hours, gross and net generation, distribution losses and net sales, gross revenue (direct customers, sales to grid, sales to spot market), fuel costs, variable and fixed O&M costs, property taxes, property insurance, business interruption insurance, regulatory costs (permits, fees, licenses, fines), DSRF expense, depreciation and amortization, loan interest, income before tax, corporate income tax, income after tax, cash flows (add back depreciation less principal repayment plus/minus non-tax deductible adjustments), project IRR and payback (100% equity), equity IRR and payback (e.g. 30% equity, 70% debt), debt service cover ratio, levelized tariff, generation cost and net profit, and financial ratios (current ratio, quick ratio, A/R turnover, days sales in receivables, inventory turnover, liabilities to equity ratio, number of times interest earned, return on assets, net profit to assets ratio, net profit to sales ratio, return on owner’s equity). More »

How to help your government and people solve life-threatening and property-damaging events

November 6th, 2009 No Comments   Posted in environmental impacts

How to help your government and people solve life-threatening and property-damaging events

As a sequel to my earlier blog on “how to predict pre-emptive safe discharge of dam water in anticipation of an incoming storm”, allow me to share my own findings, conclusions and recommendations in order that authorities could formulate a workable and acceptable plan for all the stakeholders in charge of operating and managing dams as well as the affected residents situated at the downstream communities.

This is my own little way of sharing my knowledge, expertise and experience to help my government and country overcome the recurring problem of devastating flooding during the typhoon season. More »

A father’s letter to his children – encouraging to dream and succeed in life

November 6th, 2009 No Comments   Posted in energy technology expert

A father’s letter to his children – encouraging to dream and succeed in life

Dear Mark, Eric, Patrick, Francis & Catherine,

Your daddy and mommy is pleased to inform you that through our constant prayers and help and encouragement of everyone, your daddy was able to close two business deals today.

A few days ago, a Professor from an African university ordered two large scale project finance models for simple cycle gas turbine (GT) and combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) from me at a considerable discount plus my highly popular levelized cost of energy model and supporting database.  The distinguished professor will use the two models to illustrate the applicability of the two competing technologies in specific application to his graduate students in his famous university. More »

How to calculate power plant emissions – solution to problem of a reader

How to calculate power plant emissions – solution to problem of reader

Hi,

Please find on the next page a snippet of my spreadsheet showing the solution.  The model was calibrated to the above municipal solid fuel analysis at 80% excess air firing for combustion of municipal solid waste to meet the given SO2 emission of 15.75 mg/Nm3.

Assuming 26% thermal efficiency and given firing rate of 185,000 metric tons per year of 7018 hours (around 80% capacity factor), your plant must be generating over 52.41 MW of power with 9% plant own use (parasitic load assumed).

The fuel should have a sulfur analysis of 0.57% Sulfur (dry basis) in order to give such emission.

At 31.30% moisture in the wet fuel, this translates to 0.39% Sulfur (wet basis).

Once the sulfur in the wet fuel is known, the problem is solved:

kg SO2 per metric ton fuel (wet) = (0.39 / 100) x (mw of SO2 / mw of S) x (1000 kg / metric ton)

= (0.39 / 100) x (64.0648 / 32.0660) x (1000) = 7.806 kg SO2 per metric ton (tonne) of wet fuel More »

Philippines Imposes Price Ceiling on Petroleum Products – supply shortage feared

October 28th, 2009 2 Comments   Posted in oil pump prices

Philippines Imposes Price Ceiling on Petroleum Products

President Arroyo issued Executive Order 839 that directed oil companies to revert oil pump prices of gasoline, diesel, kerosene and LPG to the Oct 15, 2009 prevailing retail prices in the calamity areas recently devastated with massive flooding, land slides, infrastructure damage to dikes, bridges, roads, houses, commercial establishments, industries and numerous loss of life.

The action was in response to the latest round of oil pump price increase announced by the 3 oil majors and minor players due to changes in MOPS of petroleum products for the periods Oct 5-9 and Oct 12-16. More »

Rule of thumb for calculating oil price adjustments due to movement of exchange rate and price of oil

October 21st, 2009 No Comments   Posted in oil pump prices

Rule of thumb for calculating oil price adjustments due to movement of exchange rate and price of oil

Your favorite energy technology and oil pricing expert again took this initiative of estimating the rule of thumb for most of the petroleum products.

These are based on MOPS for products and in the event there are no latest MOPS for a particular product, I used the historical ratio of MOPS to DUBAI in order to forecast MOPS given latest information on DUBAI.  This ratio basically tells us the incremental cost to refine the DUBAI crude to finished products. More »

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