How to predict early safe release of dam water – reaction from Philippine Star Columnist Federico Pascual
FYI… Postscript for Thursday, Oct. 15, quotes Mr. M. Ocampo.
POSTSCRIPT/ PhilSTAR/ Oct. 15, 2009/ Thursday
By Federico D. Pascual Jr.
* * *
DAM FIASCO: Some managers of dams in Luzon may have thought that impounded water should be released only when it is about to reach a critical level, or that point when it will overflow by itself or might damage the dam if the pressure is not relieved soon enough.
Some experts think, however, that it is better to release gradually small volumes of water BEFORE the spilling point is reached instead of letting loose all the excess water in one deluge when the dam is full.
A post-mortem of water-release data indicates that the fast and massive flooding that hit communities downstream could have resulted from misconceptions of some dam managers.
It has been days that energy technologist Marcial Ocampo, former executive director of the PCIERD-DOST, called our attention to this, but we ignored his thesis because it was loaded with formulas and equations that we laymen cannot follow. More »
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION : IT PROVOKED HIGHER PRICES – by Mar Tecson
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION:
IT PROVOKED HIGHER PRICES
[Editor's Note: This is the first article on this series that is meant to elicit discussion among our readers on how best we could address the issue of oil pricing under a deregulated environment. Are we better off today with a deregulated oil industry or should we revert back to a regulated oil industry? Has deregulation brought the country benefits or allowed the oil companies to increase their prices beyond what is reasonable? Please feel free to comment and share your views so we could draw up a consensus on a better approach to oil industry regulation. Cheers. Marcial] More »
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Mar Tecson’s Comment #5
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Mar Tecson’s Comment #5
[This is Mar Tecson's comment to Marcial Ocampo's response/comment #4. The reader may add further his views to widen our pool of ideas. Cheers. Marcial]
From: Marcelo Tecson <martecson@yahoo.com>
Subject: IT DEPENDS ON WHOSE VIEWPOINT… Re: LET US USE BOTH PROFITABLITY MEASUREMENTS… Re: PER LITER MARGIN is Gateway to PERCENT RETURN on CAPITAL… Re: DEREGULATION AFFECTS MARGIN ONLY… Re: THE TEST OF DEREGULATION IS ON PER LITER MARGIN… Fw: Re: For CEBU C… THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION/Let’s oil ourselves More »
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Mar Tecson’s Comment #4
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Mar Tecson’s Comment #4
[This is Mar Tecson’s comment on Marcial Ocampo’s comment #4. The reader is advised to add his comments to this blog. Cheers. Marcial]
Marcial Ocampo’s response is found in these links:
From: Marcelo Tecson <martecson@yahoo.com>
Subject: LET US USE BOTH PROFITABLITY MEASUREMENTS… Re: PER LITER MARGIN is Gateway to PERCENT RETURN on CAPITAL… Re: DEREGULATION AFFECTS MARGIN ONLY… Re: THE TEST OF DEREGULATION IS ON PER LITER MARGIN… Fw: Re: For CEBU C… THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION/Let’s oil ourselves: Friday, October 2, 2009, 12:48 PM More »
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Mar Tecson’s Comment #3
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Mar Tecson’s Comment #3
[This is Mar Tecson's comment to Marcial Ocampo's response / comment #3 also. Please add your own comments and suggestions to our ideas. Cheers. Marcial]
Marcial Ocampo’s response may be found in these links:
From: Marcelo Tecson <martecson@yahoo.com>
Subject: PER LITER MARGIN is Gateway to PERCENT RETURN on CAPITAL… Re: DEREGULATION AFFECTS MARGIN ONLY… Re: THE TEST OF DEREGULATION IS ON PER LITER MARGIN… Fw: Re: For CEBU C… THE CASE AGAINST OIL More »
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Mar Tecson’s comment #2
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Mar Tecson’s comment #2
[This is Mar Tecson's comment to Marcial Ocampo's response / comment #2. The reader is encouraged to share also his views to supplement our ideas. Cheers. Marcial]
Marcial Ocampo’s response may be found in these links:
From: Marcelo Tecson <martecson@yahoo.com>
Subject: DEREGULATION AFFECTS MARGIN ONLY… Re: THE TEST OF DEREGULATION IS ON PER LITER MARGIN… Fw: Re: For CEBU C… THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION/Let’s oil ourselves More »
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Mar Tecson’s comment #1
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Mar Tecson’s comment #1
[This is the first response from Mar Tecson on Marcial Ocampo's comment #1. Cheers. Marcial]
Marcial Ocampo’s response may be found from these links:
From: Marcelo Tecson <martecson@yahoo.com>
Subject: THE TEST OF DEREGULATION IS ON PER LITER MARGIN… Fw: Re: For CEBU C… THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION/Let’s oil ourselves More »
How to calculate oil price adjustments given changes in product MOPS and foreign exchange rate
How to calculate oil price adjustments given changes in product MOPS and foreign exchange rate
In a deregulated regulatory framework such as in the Philippines, price adjustments on a weekly basis are being implemented by both the three oil majors (Petron, Pilipinas Shell and Chevron/Caltex) and minor industry players (Flying V, Sea Oil, Total, Jetti, Unioil, Eastern, PTT, etc.).
Such adjustments are implemented by each company since the main price determinant of domestic oil prices in the Philippines has shifted to the small incremental volumes brought in by the minor industry players having product inventories of 1-2 weeks only, as opposed to previous crude oil inventories by the two remaining refiners (Petron and Pilipinas Shell) of around 1-2 months of crude.
Product imports are based on the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) which track all major oil trades in the Asian Region while crude oil imports are based on the Dubai crude marker price which tracks all major crude oil exchanges in the Asian and Indian ocean economies.
In my previous blog on oil pricing, the author has presented the step-by-step procedure for calculating domestic price by simply following the oil supply chain: More »
How to predict early dam water release – the key to minimizing flooding during typhoons
How to predict early dam water release – the key to minimizing flooding during typhoons
The Philippines is in the news around the world today. CNN, local media ABS-CBN and other international and local news media reported that five (5) major hydro dams have released water at the onset of Typhoon “Ondoy”, and after a lull, did some pre-emptive release again in anticipation of a new Typhoon “Pepeng”, only to be overwhelmed again with the return of Typhoon “Ondoy” as a result of the “Fujiwara” effect when two adjacent weather disturbances are close to one another.
Unless the dam itself is in danger of collapsing under the weight of its stored water, one could not release dam water at the height of a storm as this will either aggravate existing flooding or initiate wide spread flooding as the rampaging waters will cause land slides and casualties, and destroy earthen dikes, bridges, roads, homes and agricultural lands.
The value of damage and loss of lives could simply not justify the storage of water for future use during summer months for irrigation and power generation. This necessitates a closer review of the operating “rule curve” of the dam being followed by dam operators in the light of the very recent severe storms bringing large volumes of water over a very short period of time, perhaps as a result of global warming and climate change (warm waters and low pressure areas create extreme weather disturbances characterized with strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surges that flood coastal areas). More »
Philippine Oil Pump Price Bulletin 21 – September 23 – October 9, 2009
Philippine Oil Pump Price Bulletin 21 – September 23 – October 9, 2009
“Oil firms cut pump prices” is the title of Philippine Start Wednesday’s issue of 7 October 2009 written by Ms. Donnabelle Gatdula. After two weeks of incessant rains and massive destruction in Metro Manila brought about by Super Typhoon “Ondoy” and followed by “Pepeng”, your energy technology and pricing expert has now found time to continue this domestic oil pump price bulletin.
Pilipinas Shell, Petron and Chevron/Caltex announced a P0.75/liter price rollback on gasoline and kerosene and P0.50/liter cut on diesel as the international price of oil dropped by $3/barrel in gasoline and diesel MOPS, the pricing benchmark for imported oil products.
In the following Friday, October 9, 2009 issue of Philippine Star, Pampanga Rep. Juan Miguel “Mikey” Arroy, chairman of the energy committee of the House of Representatives, said the “75 centavo and 50 centavo reductions in the pump prices of gasoline and diesel products, respectively, is not enough.”
My own price change calculations below based on the movement of MOPS and exchange rate shows that oil companies need to reduce their prices by P1.2275/liter for gasoline, P1.6163/liter for kerosene and P0.5953/liter for diesel, indicating that the above partial reduction implemented by the oil companies need to be reduced further by P0.4775/liter gasoline, P0.8663/liter kerosene and P0.0953/liter diesel in order to maintain the same % oil company margins as of 2007 when the oil industry was in equilibrium (meaning each participant in the supply chain are getting their fair share and returns). More »
World Energy Technology Series 3 – COMBINED HEAT AND POWER (COGENERATION, TRIGENERATION)
World Energy Technology Series 3 – COMBINED HEAT AND POWER (COGENERATION, TRIGENERATION)
Your energy technology and pricing expert is releasing issue #2 on Advanced Coal Technologies. This series will focus on energy technologies (fossil, renewable, nuclear, storage) by giving information on the energy resource, basic principles, energy conversion technology, overnight capital cost ($/kW), operating and maintenace costs (fixed O&M $/kW/yr, variable O&M $/kWh), maintenance and overhaul schedule (to determine capacity factor and availability), outage rate and reliability, construction lead time, economic life, conversion efficiency (input energy to output power or heat or cooling), fuel heating value (gross and net BTU/lb, kJ/kg, BTU/scf, kJ/Nm3, BTU/gal, kJ/liter), fuel costs ($/MT, $/kg, $/bbl, $/liter, $/MMBTU, $/GJ) in order to arrive at its levelized price and levelized generation cost of energy. The benefits and risks of each technology is also presented. I encourage the reader to follow this series.
A complete power point presentation may also be obtained from this link to complement this article. More »
World Energy Technology Series 2 – ADVANCED COAL POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES
World Energy Technology Series 2 – ADVANCED COAL POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES
Your energy technology and pricing expert is releasing issue #2 on Advanced Coal Technologies. This series will focus on energy technologies (fossil, renewable, nuclear, storage) by giving information on the energy resource, basic principles, energy conversion technology, overnight capital cost ($/kW), operating and maintenace costs (fixed O&M $/kW/yr, variable O&M $/kWh), maintenance and overhaul schedule (to determine capacity factor and availability), outage rate and reliability, construction lead time, economic life, conversion efficiency (input energy to output power or heat or cooling), fuel heating value (gross and net BTU/lb, kJ/kg, BTU/scf, kJ/Nm3, BTU/gal, kJ/liter), fuel costs ($/MT, $/kg, $/bbl, $/liter, $/MMBTU, $/GJ) in order to arrive at its levelized price and levelized generation cost of energy. The benefits and risks of each technology is also presented. I encourage the reader to follow this series.
A complete power point presentation may also be obtained from this link to complement this article. More »
World Energy Technology Series 1 – BIOMASS ENERGY AND POWER
World Energy Technology Series 1 – BIOMASS ENERGY AND POWER
Your energy technology and pricing expert is launching his World Energy Technology Series with this maiden issue #1 on Biomass Energy and Power. This series will focus on energy technologies (fossil, renewable, nuclear, storage) by giving information on the energy resource, basic principles, energy conversion technology, overnight capital cost ($/kW), operating and maintenace costs (fixed O&M $/kW/yr, variable O&M $/kWh), maintenance and overhaul schedule (to determine capacity factor and availability), outage rate and reliability, construction lead time, economic life, conversion efficiency (input energy to output power or heat or cooling), fuel heating value (gross and net BTU/lb, kJ/kg, BTU/scf, kJ/Nm3, BTU/gal, kJ/liter), fuel cost ($/MT, $/kg, $/bbl, $/liter, $/MMBTU, $/GJ) in order to arrive at its levelized price and levelized generation cost of energy. The benefits and risks of each technology is also presented. I encourage the reader to follow this series.
A complete power point presentation may also be obtained from this link to complement this article. More »
How to calculate oil pump price and determine oil company profitability – a suggested procedure for government regulators and oil companies
How to calculate oil pump price and determine oil company profitability – a suggested procedure for government regulators and oil companies
Finally, your energy technology and pricing expert, Marcial Ocampo, has proposed this action plan to top government officials in the executive and legislative branch of the Philippine Government thru email. Marcial is hoping that positive action will be accorded to this proposal in order to bring closure to this nagging issue.
This pricing concept with a financial analysis of the oil industry profitability is expected to bring greater understanding on how oil prices should be calculated and imposed on the buying public to ensure that the common interest of the oil supplier and oil consumer are both equitably addressed.
Calculating pump price (cost model)
This paper proposes a transparent procedure for determining domestic pump prices given the MOPS price for imported oil products or DUBAI crude oil price for oil refiners.
The calculation of oil company margin (the portion of the pump price that goes to the oil company since the other costs are pass-thru expenses given to the supplier of oil products, government taxes and other participants in the oil supply chain) is also presented.
I believe that oil company margin based on % of duty paid landed cost (DPLC = FOB + FRT + INS + OCEAN LOSS + DOC STAMPS + BOE FEE + WHARFAGE + DEMURRAGE + CUSTOMS DUTY + SPECIFIC TAX + VAT1) is the most equitable way of providing reasonable returns that could be readily agreed upon by the regulator and oil industry participants. More »
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Marcial Ocampo’s comment #5
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Marcial Ocampo’s comment #5
[Editor’s Note: Finally, Marcial Ocampo proposed this action plan to top government officials in the executive and legislative branch of the Philippine Government thru email. Marcial is hoping that positive action will be accorded to this proposal in order to bring closure to this nagging issue. Let’s pray to that. Marcial]
From: Ocampo Marcial <mars_ocampo@yahoo.com>
Subject: Fw: IT DEPENDS ON WHOSE VIEWPOINT… Re: LET US USE BOTH PROFITABLITY MEASUREMENTS… Re: PER LITER MARGIN is Gateway to PERCENT RETURN on CAPITAL… Re: DEREGULATION AFFECTS MARGIN ONLY… Re: THE TEST OF DEREGULATION IS ON PER LITER MARGIN… Fw: Re: For CEBU C… THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION/Let’s oil ourselves
Dear Readers and Fellow Citizens,
Just sharing with you our continuing discussion on oil deregulation with Mar Tecson.
I believe that oil company margin based on % of duty paid landed cost (DPLC = FOB + FRT + INS + OCEAN LOSS + BOE FEE + CUSTOMS DUTY+ SPECIFIC TAX + DEMURRAGE + VAT1) is the most equitable way of providing reasonable returns that could be readily agreed upon by the regulator and oil industry participants. VAT1 refers to the 12% VAT applied on the imported oil value adding activities. FOB is the MOPS for products and DUBAI for crudes.
The DPLC is then converted to Pesos per liter given the exchange rate (PhP/US$) and conversion factor from barrels to liters (42 gal/bbl x 3.7854 liters/gal) = 159 liter/bbl approximately. More »
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Marcial Ocampo’s comment #4
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Marcial Ocampo’s comment #4
[Editor: This is Marcial Ocampo's response to Mar Tecson's comment #3. Reader is also advised to contribute his views and comments to enrich further this discussion. Cheers. Marcial]
From: Ocampo Marcial <mars_ocampo@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: PER LITER MARGIN is Gateway to PERCENT RETURN on CAPITAL… Re: DEREGULATION AFFECTS MARGIN ONLY… Re: THE TEST OF DEREGULATION IS ON PER LITER MARGIN… Fw: Re: For CEBU C… THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION/Let’s oil ourselves
Hi Mar,
I fully agree with you that in the end, the measure of profitability is the % return on capital which is the ratio of sales volume x margin / capital used in providing the product to the market.
Let’s take the case of a sari-sari store. He buys goods and adds 10% gross margin. If he is able to sell his product within a week, his annual return is 10% x 52 weeks/year = 520% per year assuming he reinvest all his capital and earnings and does not withdraw capital or earnings for his upkeep.
In the case of an oil company, if each delivery of product measured as DPLC (FOB + FRT + INS + DUTIES + SPECIFIC TAX + VAT + DEMURRAGE + BOE FEE + OCEAN LOSS) the oil company applies a 3% gross margin, and the oil major has an inventory turnover of 1 month, then his annual gross return is 36% per annum, which he has to budget to pay for his loans, salaries, expenses and capital expansion projects. More »
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Marcial Ocampo’s comment #3
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Marcial Ocampo’s comment #3
[Editor’s Note: The reader may wish to add his comments to that of Marcial Ocampo on the previous comments by Mar Tecson. Cheers. Marcial]
From: Ocampo Marcial <mars_ocampo@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: DEREGULATION AFFECTS MARGIN ONLY… Re: THE TEST OF DEREGULATION IS ON PER LITER MARGIN… Fw: Re: For CEBU C… THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION/Let’s oil ourselves
Hi Mar,
I don’t agree with you that the margin should be monitored in pesos per liter. What if it doubled from 2.00 to over 5.00 per liter. It is meaningless unless you also specify how much has the duty paid landed cost (DPLC) of the product or crude has moved also.
So it is important to compute the ratio of margin to DPLC as a % which is similar to % of sales since the amount of capital initially put up to bring the product to our shores is the DPLC.
I own a lending investor company and I measure my margin as a % of my loans receivables, which is similar to an oil company too. Their receivable is basically the DPLC which they advanced in order to bring the product to us. More »
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Marcial Ocampo’s comment #2
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Marcial Ocampo’s comment #2
[Editor's Note: This is my response to Mar Tecson's 2nd comment. Cheers. Marcial]
From: Ocampo Marcial <mars_ocampo@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: THE TEST OF DEREGULATION IS ON PER LITER MARGIN… Fw: Re: For CEBU C… THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION/Let’s oil ourselves
Hi Mar,
This is precisely what my oil calculation model could do.
Given the source / supply cost and exchange rate and other cost factors, and comparing with the actual pump price, my cost model will calculate thru goal seek the actual oil company margin in Pesos per liter and as a % of the duty paid landed cost.
I have monitored the % oil company margin over the last few years when supply and demand was in equilibrium, i.e. all the oil industry players are receiving their fair share of the cost inputs plus their usual profit margins.
Now as we monitor current prices and compare with current international oil prices and exchange rate, the cost model will calculate the actual oil company margin in Pesos per liter and the actual % oil company margin and we then compare it with the historical % oil company margins that they oil company were enjoying prior to the oil crisis of 2008 (i.e. 2007 annual average) when it was generally agreed that there were no outstanding over and under recoveries. More »
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Marcial Ocampo’s comment #1
THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION – Marcial Ocampo’s comment #1
[Editor's Note: This is the expert's 1st response to the first article on this series that is meant to elicit discussion among our readers on how best we could address the issue of oil pricing under a deregulated environment. Are we better off today with a deregulated oil industry or should we revert back to a regulated oil industry? Has deregulation brought the country benefits or allowed the oil companies to increase their prices beyond what is reasonable? Please feel free to add more comment and share your views so we could draw up a consensus on a better approach to oil industry regulation. Cheers. Marcial]
From: Ocampo Marcial <mars_ocampo@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CebuPolitics] For CEBU C… THE CASE AGAINST OIL DEREGULATION/Let’s oil ourselves
Dear all,
Kindly visit my website that explains how domestic oil pump prices are calculated and adjusted by the oil companies in response to changes in the world market price (MOPS for finished products importers and Dubai for crude refiners), foreign exchange rate (PhP/US$), freight, insurance, customs duties, specific tax, value added tax, oil company margin, biofuels, oil depot costs, transshipment/barge/shipping, hauling, dealer’s margin, etc.
A careful price build-up will show that both price changes and absolute pump price estimation closely approximate the prevailing retail price at the pumps in response to changes above. More »
Philippine Renewable Energy News Bulletin 4 – September 19, 2009
Philippine Renewable Energy News Bulletin 4 – September 19, 2009
The recent passage of the Philippine Renewable Energy (RE) Law and its Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR) now clearly defines the legal and regulatory framework for renewable energy investment in the Philippines. After almost a long 10 year wait, this important piece of legislation has passed deliberations in both chambers of the Philippine Congress and Senate and was signed into law by President Gloria.
(Please email for IRR – mars_ocampo@yahoo.com or energydataexpert@gmail.com) More »
