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ADV Wind Model.xls

June 24th, 2012 Posted in renewable energy

ADV Wind Model.xls

Wind energy is most available in countries within the 40 deg North latitude and 40 deg South latitude. It can be harnessed using giant wind turbines that when connected together in a wind farm can provide utility scale capacities of 2.0 MW per turbine and with 15 turbines, could produce 30 MW of power in a given wind farm.

This advanced model for wind makes use of the basic assumptions of the country’s RE regulator for rated capacity (15 x 2 MW), capacity factor (25.8%), plant own use (3%), and 0.20% plant degradation rate.

It assumes equipment cost (FOB $/kW), ocean insurance and freight (10%), balance of plant (35%), G&A cost ($/year), O&M cost ($/kW/year), spare parts replacement cost ($/unit/year), substation and transmission line cost ($/km) and distance (km), access road cost ($/km) and distance (km), 2% project development cost, 12% VAT, 1% working capital and 7.5% contingency. VAT recovery is 70% on the 5th year. Days receivable and payable are 30 days.

Construction period is 12 months while operating period is 20 years. Cost of capital is 16% p.a. for 30% equity and 10% p.a. for 70% debt.

Exchange rate is 44.00 PhP/US$.

Incentives provided by the RE Law is applied such as the 7 years income tax holiday, after which a 10% income tax is applied. Property tax of 1.5% applied on 80% of book value. Local business tax is 1% of revenues while DOE 1-94 contribution is 0.01 PhP/kWh sold.

To order, pay and download this model, follow this link:

http://energydataexpert.com/product_info.php?cPath=19_31&products_id=148

The summary worksheet is shown below:

 

Project   Site Name & Location     Salgado
Renewable Energy Source     Wind
Hours per Year 8760
Timing
  Construction Period (from FC) (months) 12
  Operating Period (Yrs from COD) 20
  Yrs from base year CPI & Forex (2009)   for FIT 3
  Yrs from base year CPI (2011) for CAPEX 1
  Yrs from base year CPI (2011) for OPEX 2
Construction Sources and   Uses of Funds, $000
  Uses of Fund:
    EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant,   Transport, Access Roads) $59,499
    Transmission Line Interconnection   Facility $2,186
    Sub-Station Facility $3,640
    Development & Other Costs $1,988
    Construction Contingency $5,091
    Value Added Tax $5,747
    Financing Costs $3,992
    Initial Working Capital $604
  Total Uses of Fund $82,747
  Sources of Fund:
    Debt $57,923
    Equity $24,824
  Total Sources of Fund $82,747
  Construction Unit Costs (US$/kW):
    EPC Cost $1,983
    Plant Cost (Excluding VAT, Financing,   Working Capital) $2,413
    All-in Project Cost $2,758
Model Check:
Balance Sheet     OK
Foreign Debt Amorization     OK
Local Debt Amortization     OK
Depreciation     OK
Sources and Uses of   Funds     OK
Debt-to-Equity Ratio     OK
Base Years
  Base year CPI & Forex for FiT 2009
  Base year CPI for CAPEX 2011
  Base year CPI for OPEX 2011
Commercial Operating Date 2012

 

Technical and EPC   Assumptions
Unit Capacity of Plant   (MW/unit) 2.000
No. of Units (unit) 15.0
Gross Installed Capacity   (MW) 30.00
Plant Availability Factor, % 27.13%
Guaranteed Efficiency   Factor, % 95.00%
Allowance for losses & own use, % 3.00%
Net Capacity Factor after   losses & own use, % 25.00%
Net Electrical Output (MWh   in 1st Year) 65,700
Plant Degration, % p.a.   (1-20 Yrs) 0.20%
            % LC
Equipment Cost ex BOP,   Transport ($000/MW) $1,335.00 0.0%
Insurance, Ocean Freight,   Local Transport 10.0% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of   Equipment Cost 35.0% 66.0%
Transmission Line Distance   (km) 25.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV   ($000/km) $84.09 100.0%
Switchyard &   Transformers ($000) $3,500.00 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $50.00 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 15.00
Dev’t & Other Costs   (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 2.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70%   recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (%   of EPC) 1.00% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total   Cost) 7.5% 75.0%
SET NPV (F29) TO ZERO BY   VARYING FIT (F30)
Operating Assumptions – NPV 116,277     Equity IRR
  Feed-in-Tariff (PhP/kWh) – FIT 10.37 17.23%
  Duration of FiT (Yrs) 20     Project IRR
  Tariff post FiT period (PhP/kWh) 7.00 14.18%
  FiT using Asset Base Methodology (PhP/kWh) 11.12
  Annual CER Volume (tCO2e/year) and $/tCO2e                – $5.00
  O&M Cost ($000/unit/year) $100.00
  Spare Parts, Tools & Equipment   ($000/MW/yr) $25.00
  O&M + Spares as % of EPC, T/L, S/S 3.44%
  Refurbishment Cost (% of EPC) 0%
  Timing of Refurbishment (Year from COD) 0
  G&A ($000/year) $600
  Fuel Cost (switch for Biomass: 1=yes, 0=no) 0
    Average Fuel Cost (PhP/mt)       1,297.00
    Fuel Rate (kWh/mt)         700.00
    Average Fuel Consumption (mt/year)                  –
    Average Unit Cost of Fuel (PhP/kWh)               –
  Days Receivable & Payable 30 30
  VAT Recovery 70%
  Timing of VAT recovery (Yrs after COD) 5

 

Debt and Equity Assumptions
Local/Foreign Capital Mix:
  Local Capital 39.9%
  Foreign Capital 60.1%
Debt:
  Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing   Fees 2.00%
  Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
  Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
  Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP)   (Yrs) 10
  Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
  Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of   GP) (Yrs) 10
  Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD   (months) 6
  Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve   (months) 6
  Debt Ratio 70%
  Total Local Debt ($000) – 30% $8,190
  Total Foreign Debt ($000) – 70% $49,733
    Total Debt Amount ($000) $57,923
Equity: 16%
  Equity Ratio 30%
  Equit Investment $24,824
  Cost of Equity (Onshore Equity IRR) –   Nominal 17.2%
  Cost of Equity (Onshore Equity IRR) – Real 12.7%
WACC pre-tax 11.5%
WACC after-tax 10.4%
Tax Assumptions
  Income Tax Holiday (Yrs) 7
  Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 10%
  Property tax (from COD) 1.5%
  Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
  Local Business Tax 1.0%
  Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
  ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
  Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign   Currency) – WHT 10%
  Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 5%
Economic Assumptions
  Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2009 47.8125
  Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (2011) 44.0000
  Base Local CPI – 2009 160.00
  Annual Local CPI 4.0%
  Annual US CPI 2.0%
  Annual Peso Depreciation Rate 2.0%

 

 

 

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