Subscribe

CDM Ocean Thermal Model_50 MW2.xls

June 25th, 2012 Posted in renewable energy

CDM Ocean Thermal Model_50 MW2.xls

In addition to the worksheets found in the ADV models of the regulator, 5 additional tabs or worksheets have been added (Capex, Opex, Revenues, Project IRR and Sensitivity) into the CDM model which is a financial evaluation without taxes (that distort the economic and technical performance) and debt (pure equity investment). For the RE project to benefit from CDM credits, the project IRR should not be more than 15% p.a.

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion or OTEC is most adapted in deep waters near the equator where the temperature difference between the surface (30 deg Celsius) and a depth of 1 km (10 deg Celsius) located within 10 km from the shoreline.

This 20 deg Celsius thermal gradient is available throughout the year near the equator and diminishes up to 40 deg North latitude and South latitude, beyond which the OTEC is not technically viable for having a much lower thermal gradient. This provides a very high capacity factor of 91% and it only unavailable when it de-couples during a tropical storm and the OTEC power barge transfers to a safer cove to ride the storm.

This advanced model for OTEC makes use of the basic assumptions of the country’s RE regulator for rated capacity (5 x 16 MW), capacity factor (90.7%), plant own use (36%), and 0.20% plant degradation rate.

It assumes equipment cost (FOB $/kW), ocean insurance and freight (10%), balance of plant (31%), G&A cost ($/year), O&M cost ($/kW/year), spare parts replacement cost ($/unit/year), substation and transmission line cost ($/km) and distance (km), access road cost ($/km) and distance (km), 2% project development cost, 12% VAT, 1% working capital and 7.5% contingency. VAT recovery is 70% on the 5th year. Days receivable and payable are 30 days.

Construction period is 48 months while operating period is 20 years. Cost of capital is 16% p.a. for 30% equity and 10% p.a. for 70% debt.

Exchange rate is 44.00 PhP/US$.

Incentives provided by the RE Law is applied such as the 7 years income tax holiday, after which a 10% income tax is applied. Property tax of 1.5% applied on 80% of book value. Local business tax is 1% of revenues while DOE 1-94 contribution is 0.01 PhP/kWh sold.

To order, pay and download this model, follow this link:

http://energydataexpert.com/product_info.php?cPath=19_37&products_id=181

The summary worksheet is shown below:

 

Project   Site Name & Location   Zambales
Renewable Energy Source   Ocean Thermal
Hours per Year 8760
Timing
  Construction Period (from FC) (months) 12
  Operating Period (Yrs from COD) 20
  Yrs from base year CPI & Forex (2009)   for FIT 4
  Yrs from base year CPI (2011) for CAPEX 1
  Yrs from base year CPI (2011) for OPEX 2
Construction Sources and   Uses of Funds, $000
  Uses of Fund:
    EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant,   Transport, Access Roads) $903,434
    Transmission Line Interconnection   Facility $875
    Sub-Station Facility $9,707
    Development & Other Costs $18,865
    Construction Contingency $70,662
    Value Added Tax $88,423
    Financing Costs $55,264
    Initial Working Capital $9,173
  Total Uses of Fund $1,156,401
  Sources of Fund:
    Debt $809,481
    Equity $346,920
  Total Sources of Fund $1,156,401
  Construction Unit Costs (US$/kW):
    EPC Cost $11,293
    Plant Cost (Excluding VAT, Financing,   Working Capital) $12,544
    All-in Project Cost $14,455
Model Check:
Balance Sheet   OK
Foreign Debt Amorization   OK
Local Debt Amortization   OK
Depreciation   OK
Sources and Uses of   Funds   OK
Debt-to-Equity Ratio   OK
Base Years
  Base year CPI & Forex for FiT 2009
  Base year CPI for CAPEX 2011
  Base year CPI for OPEX 2011
Commercial Operating Date 2013

 

Technical and EPC   Assumptions
Unit Capacity of Plant   (MW/unit) 16.000
No. of Units (unit) 5.0
Gross Installed Capacity   (MW) 80.00
Plant Availability Factor, % 95.48%
Guaranteed Efficiency   Factor, % 95.00%
Allowance for losses & own use, % 36.00%
Net Capacity Factor after   losses & own use, % 58.05%
Net Electrical Output (MWh   in 1st Year) 406,839
Plant Degration, % p.a.   (1-20 Yrs) 0.20%
            % LC
Equipment Cost ex BOP,   Transport ($000/MW) $7,819.00 0.0%
Insurance, Ocean Freight,   Local Transport 10.0% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of   Equipment Cost 31.0% 66.0%
Transmission Line Distance   (km) 10.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV   ($000/km) $84.09 100.0%
Switchyard &   Transformers ($000) $9,333.33 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $50.00 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 10.00
Dev’t & Other Costs   (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 2.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70%   recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (%   of EPC) 1.00% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total   Cost) 7.5% 75.0%
SET NPV (F29) TO ZERO BY   VARYING FIT (F30)
Operating Assumptions – NPV (4,592,178)    Equity IRR
  Feed-in-Tariff (PhP/kWh) – FIT 17.65 12.34%
  Duration of FiT (Yrs) 20    Project IRR
  Tariff post FiT period (PhP/kWh) 7.00 10.92%
  FiT using Asset Base Methodology (PhP/kWh) 20.84
  Annual CER Volume (tCO2e/year) and $/tCO2e                – $5.00
  O&M Cost ($000/unit/year) $266.67
  Spare Parts, Tools & Equipment   ($000/MW/yr) $66.67
  O&M + Spares as % of EPC, T/L, S/S 3.52%
  Refurbishment Cost (% of EPC) 0%
  Timing of Refurbishment (Year from COD) 0
  G&A ($000/year) $600
  Fuel Cost (switch for Biomass: 1=yes, 0=no) 1
    Average Fuel Cost (PhP/mt)       1,297.00
    Fuel Rate (kWh/mt)         700.00
    Average Fuel Consumption (mt/year)        459,473
    Average Unit Cost of Fuel (PhP/kWh)           1.511
  Days Receivable & Payable 30 30
  VAT Recovery 70%
  Timing of VAT recovery (Yrs after COD) 5

 

Debt and Equity Assumptions
Local/Foreign Capital Mix:
  Local Capital 33.9%
  Foreign Capital 66.1%
Debt:
  Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing   Fees 2.00%
  Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
  Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
  Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP)   (Yrs) 10
  Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
  Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of   GP) (Yrs) 10
  Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD   (months) 6
  Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve   (months) 6
  Debt Ratio 70%
  Total Local Debt ($000) – 30% $45,473
  Total Foreign Debt ($000) – 70% $764,008
    Total Debt Amount ($000) $809,481
Equity: 16%
  Equity Ratio 30%
  Equit Investment $346,920
  Cost of Equity (Onshore Equity IRR) –   Nominal 12.3%
  Cost of Equity (Onshore Equity IRR) – Real 8.0%
WACC pre-tax 9.8%
WACC after-tax 8.8%
Tax Assumptions
  Income Tax Holiday (Yrs) 7
  Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 10%
  Property tax (from COD) 1.5%
  Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
  Local Business Tax 1.0%
  Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
  ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
  Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign   Currency) – WHT 10%
  Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 5%
Economic Assumptions
  Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2009 47.8125
  Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (2011) 44.0000
  Base Local CPI – 2009 160.00
  Annual Local CPI 4.0%
  Annual US CPI 2.0%
  Annual Peso Depreciation Rate 2.0%

 

Project IRR Pre tax (no escalation) – % Equity –> 100.00%
Year (act)   Year     CapEx
PhP(10^3)
    OpEx
PhP(10^3)
    TPC
PhP(10^3)
    Revenue
PhP(10^3)
    EBITDA
2011 0
2012 0        (49,319,664.67)        (49,319,664.67)        (49,319,664.67)
2013 1           (915,637.70)           (915,637.70)        3,254,712.00          2,339,074.30
2014 2           (918,593.02)           (918,593.02)        3,254,712.00          2,336,118.98
2015 3           (889,001.22)           (889,001.22)        3,254,712.00          2,365,710.78
2016 4           (859,409.42)           (859,409.42)        3,254,712.00          2,395,302.58
2017 5           (829,817.62)           (829,817.62)        3,254,712.00          2,424,894.38
2018 6           (800,225.83)           (800,225.83)        3,254,712.00          2,454,486.17
2019 7           (770,634.03)           (770,634.03)        3,254,712.00          2,484,077.97
2020 8           (741,042.23)           (741,042.23)        3,254,712.00          2,513,669.77
2021 9           (711,450.43)           (711,450.43)        3,254,712.00          2,543,261.57
2022 10           (681,858.63)           (681,858.63)        3,254,712.00          2,572,853.37
2023 11           (652,266.83)           (652,266.83)        3,254,712.00          2,602,445.17
2024 12           (622,675.03)           (622,675.03)        3,254,712.00          2,632,036.97
2025 13           (593,083.23)           (593,083.23)        3,254,712.00          2,661,628.77
2026 14           (563,491.43)           (563,491.43)        3,254,712.00          2,691,220.57
2027 15           (533,899.64)           (533,899.64)        3,254,712.00          2,720,812.36
2028 16           (504,307.84)           (504,307.84)        3,254,712.00          2,750,404.16
2029 17           (474,716.04)           (474,716.04)        3,254,712.00          2,779,995.96
2030 18           (445,124.24)           (445,124.24)        3,254,712.00          2,809,587.76
2031 19           (415,532.44)           (415,532.44)        3,254,712.00          2,839,179.56
2032 20           (385,940.64)           (385,940.64)        3,254,712.00          2,868,771.36
Totals        (49,319,664.67)        (13,308,707.49)        (62,628,372.16)        65,094,240.00          2,465,867.84
 IRR –> 0.45%

 

One Response to “CDM Ocean Thermal Model_50 MW2.xls”

  1. Peter O'Connell Says:

    Dear Mr. Ocampo,

    I like your work and it does look professional, however all your calculations depend on percentages which is normal for projects where experience has been gain on similar successful projects. OTEC does not have these proven experiences so I am interested on how you decided these amounts.

    Regards,
    Peter



Leave a Reply

XHTML: You can use these tags: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>