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Wind-Diesel Hybrid Project Finance Model with Wind Resource Assessment – now available

March 17th, 2012 Posted in renewable energy

Wind-Diesel Hybrid Project finance Model with Wind Resource Assessment – now available

Analyzing the economics of a wind-diesel hybrid power plant has now become simple with the new wind-diesel project finance model having a wind energy resource simulator. Avoid the time consuming hassle by purchasing this latest product offering from your energy technology selection expert.

1) Wind energy resource assessment

Renewable Energy (RE) assessment is first conducted on a given location (latitude, longitude, elevation) using an RE assessment tool such as 3-TIER which provides average wind speed (in meters per second or m/s) and standard deviation (positive and negative deviations) at various months of the year (at beginning and mid-point of the month).

Daily average values are then obtained by linear interpolation. Hourly values may then be calculated by applying the excel random fraction function on the positive and negative deviations:

wind speed(day, hour) = ave wind speed(day) + rand() x pos dev – rand() x neg dev

The wind speeds in m/s are then converted to miles per hour (mph) and rounded to 1 decimal point.

wind speed(day, hour) = round(wind speed in meters/sec * 2.23693929205,1)

The power output of the wind turbine generator is then calculated from the look-up table of the wind turbine model (from University of Idaho) being considered.

wind output(day, hour) = look-up table(wind speed in mph)

By summing up the 365 days and 24 hours of kW output, the annual kWh generation is determined and the annual capacity factor of the wind turbine generator model is calculated:

ave CF of wind = sum[wind output(day, hour)] / (wind rated kW x 24 x 365)

2) Hourly energy demand profile

The annual energy demand (kWh/year) is then converted to monthly energy demand (kWh/month) by considering the seasonality of the demand, which is further reduced into a daily energy demand (kWh/day) and finally into an average hourly demand (kWh/hour = kW).

The instantaneous hourly demand is then calculated by using the excel random fraction function. A 10% positive and negative deviation is assumed for power demand variation.

pos dev = 10% x ave demand(day)

neg dev = 10% x ave demand(day)

demand(day, hour) = ave demand(day) + rand() x pos dev – rand() x neg dev

3) Balance diesel generation

By subtracting the hourly output of the wind farm (unit output x no. of units) from the hourly demand, the hourly balance diesel generation is calculated:

diesel output(day, hour) = demand(day, hour) – wind output(day, hour) x units

By summing up the 365 days and 24 hours of kW output, the annual kWh generation is determined and the annual capacity factor of the diesel genset is calculated:

ave CF of diesel = sum[diesel output(day, hour)] / (diesel rated kW x 24 x 365)

4) Running the wind energy farm model

This model calculates the all-in capital cost of wind farm (installed equipment, transmission line & substation, taxes & licenses, project development, working capital, financing costs during construction), fuel & lubes costs, operating & maintenance costs (variable, fixed, regulatory), depreciation (20 year economic life), interest expense, income before tax (IBT), income tax (10% of IBT with 7 year income tax holiday), and income after tax (IAT). Then add-back depreciation and subtract principal repayment to arrive at net cash flow (NCF).

It then assumes 30% equity (at 16% p.a. IRR) and 70% debt (at 10% p.a. loan interest) to determine the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

By comparing the all-in project cost with the discounted net cash flow, the model calculates the project IRR, project NPV and project payback period.

By comparing equity portion of the all-in project cost with the discounted net cash flow, the model calculates the equity IRR, equity NPV and equity payback period.

By applying the annual capacity factor to estimate annual gross generation and net generation (gross – substation loss & own use – transmission loss), we arrive at the
first year tariff needed to meet the equity IRR of the project (minimum returns
of the investors).

5) Running the diesel genset model

The model calculates the all-in capital cost of the diesel gensets (peaking and base load units needed to backup the intermittent wind energy output), fuels (diesel & fuel oil) & lubes costs, operating & maintenance costs (variable, fixed, regulatory), depreciation (20 year economic life), interest expense, income before tax (IBT), income tax (10% of IBT with 7 year income tax holiday), and income after tax (IAT). Then add-back depreciation and subtract principal repayment to arrive at net cash flow (NCF).

It then assumes 30% equity (at 16% p.a. IRR) and 70% debt (at 10% p.a. loan interest) to determine the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

By comparing the all-in project cost with the discounted net cash flow, the model calculates the project IRR, project NPV and project payback period.

By comparing equity portion of the all-in project cost with the discounted net cash flow, the model calculates the equity IRR, equity NPV and equity payback period.

By applying the annual capacity factor to estimate annual gross generation and net generation (gross – substation loss & own use – transmission loss), we arrive at the
first year tariff needed to meet the equity IRR of the project (minimum returns
of the investors).

6) Optimizing the wind-diesel hybrid configuration for grid stability

The peaking units and diesel units must ideally be in the 1:3 rated capacity ratio to ensure that the high-speed peaking units could follow the intermittency of the wind farm output, e.g. 2 MW peaking and 6 MW base load units for a total of 8 MW of diesel genset capacity.

Ideally, the peaking units must be loaded around 50% while the baseload units should be loaded not more than 75%. This means that if the engine size of the peaking and
baseload units have been set, the modeler will adjust the number of peaking and
baseload units so that it will meet the above load factors.

7) Wind penetration limits and peaking/baseload parameters

The wind farm must only displace 15% of the kW and the balance 85% to be carried
by the combined peaking and base load diesel gensets. Likewise, the peaking
units will carry 10-20% of the kWh while the base load units will carry 80-90%
of the kWh demand, which when sized and configured correctly will result in a
50% annual capacity factor for the peaking units and 75% annual capacity factor
for the base load units (gensets).

8) Determining the first year tariff of the wind-diesel hybrid power plant

The generation of the wind farm and diesel gensets (peaking and baseload units) are
blended to arrive at the weighted average tariff to be charged to the customer
buying power from the hybrid power plant.

Order now and save valuable time for your wind-diesel hybrid project finance model. Similar models for solar PV-diesel hybrid and minihydro-diesel hybrid are available or could be customized for your particular project.

Email me now:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

 

One Response to “Wind-Diesel Hybrid Project Finance Model with Wind Resource Assessment – now available”

  1. Sherlyn Guitard Says:

    This causes the eybackup to backup a file that is zero length and push it to the S3 backup but still return successfully. This is a problem because a cursory examination shows the backups are working all finegoogleI had been using this EngineYard cloud and knew some cloud computing companies for a long time and I have never had this problem before.



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