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Integrated Wind Prospecting, Wind Resource Assessment, Annual Power Generation and Capacity Factor, and Wind Project Finance Model with Monte Carlo Simulation (Ver. 4)

February 11th, 2015 Posted in wind energy and power

Integrated Wind Prospecting, Wind Resource Assessment, Annual Power Generation and Capacity Factor, and Wind Project Finance Model with Monte Carlo Simulation (Ver. 4)

Yes, your energy technology expert has done it again.

Version 4 has been released that integrates all the steps needed in fully developing your wind energy project.

It combines the data entry of the wind velocity profile of the prospective wind farm site (from wind mast anemometer monitoring or from 3-TIER, NREL wind profile database), interpolation of daily and hourly wind speed (even up to 15-minute pulse if needed by the TRANSCO / GRID operator), look-up tables for the various wind turbine generator manufacturers, calculation of annual power generation and capacity factor, overnight capital cost of wind turbine and its fixed and variable O&M costs, and project finance modeling (deterministic with option for both deterministic and stochastic modeling using Monte Carlo Simulation).

The wind speed is also calculated from a random function:

wind speed (day, hour) = average speed (day, hour) + positive deviation * rand() – negative deviation * rand()

By having all the information, calculation, analysis and reports in once spreadsheet model, it would be easy to do multiple runs for each wind turbine model in order to determine the most economical or optimal or most cost-effective model (lowest tariff, or highest IRR or NPV).

The model has the following worksheets/tabs:

Cover sheet (title sheet, name of project, date of run)

Inputs & Assumptions (model inputs and summary of results)

Power Curves (of wind turbine models – 81 models in all to select from ranging from 1 kW to 2,500 kW)

Wind speed (velocity profile of location)

Wind resource (simulation of hourly wind speed, look-up table to power curves, annual power generation, average capacity factor)

Sensitivity Analysis (implements Monte Carlo Simulation that varies randomly the inputs from 90% to 110% of deterministic value) to arrive at the histogram (probability distribution) of equity and project returns (IRR, NPV, PAYBACK), net present value of income after tax discounted at the pre-tax WACC, pre-tax WACC, and electricity tariff)

Construction Period (up to 36 months) – land, equipment cost, transport, taxes, installation, project development and management, working capital, financing costs such as interest during construction, upfront fees, commitment fee)

Operating Period (up to 30 years) – capacity, generation, station use and losses, net generation, fuel consumption, fixed and variable O&M costs, evolution of expenses and balance sheet accounts

Financials (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, equity returns and project returns (IRR, NPV, PAYBACK), levelized tariff and generation cost breakdown, net profit after tax discounted at the pre-tax WACC

Asset Base tariff (levelized cost based on asset base)

You may email me for more information at:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

You may request for an demo copy at minimal cost (US$500).

The true copy will be costed for the following built-in items:

1) Wind Turbine Generator Power Curves (wind speed vs. kW output) for 81 turbine models with random wind speed simulator – US$1,000

2) ADV Wind Energy Project Finance Model (deterministic model) – US$1,400

OPTION: ADV Model with CDM carbon emission credit modeling – US$1,800

3) Monte Carlo Simulation (stochastic model) for the Project Finance Model – add 50% of the above price option selected in Item 2) above.

The total price for each option with Monte Carlo Simulation:

ADV Model Price = 1,000 + 1,400 + 1,400 * 50% = US$3,100

CDM Model Price = 1,000 + 1,800 + 1,800 * 50% = US$3,700

The total price without Monte Carlo Simulation:

ADV Model Price = 1,000 + 1,400 = US$2,400

CDM Model Price = 1,000 + 1,800 = US$2,800

 

 

 

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