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Integrated Wind Prospecting, Wind Resource Assessment, Annual Power Generation and Capacity Factor, and Wind Project Finance Model with Monte Carlo Simulation

March 29th, 2016 Posted in wind energy and power

Integrated Wind Prospecting, Wind Resource Assessment, Annual Power Generation and Capacity Factor, and Wind Project Finance Model with Monte Carlo Simulation

Yes, your energy technology expert has done it again.

Version 3 has been released that integrates all the steps needed in fully developing your wind energy project.

It combines the data entry of the wind velocity profile of the prospective wind farm site (from wind mast anemometer monitoring or from 3-TIER, NREL wind profile database), interpolation of daily and hourly wind speed (up to 15-minute pulse if needed by the TRANSCO / GRID operator), look-up tables for the various wind turbine generator manufacturers, calculation of annual power generation and capacity factor, overnight capital cost of wind turbine and its fixed and variable O&M costs, and project finance modeling (with option for both deterministic and stochastic modeling using Monte Carlo Simulation).

The wind speed is also calculated from a random function:

wind speed (day, hour) = average speed (day, hour) + positive deviation * rand() – negative deviation * rand()

By having all the information, calculation, analysis and reports in once spreadsheet model, it would be easy to do multiple runs for each wind turbine model in order to determine the most cost-effective wind turbine model (lowest tariff, or highest IRR or NPV).

The model has the following worksheets/tabs:

Cover sheet (title sheet, name of project, date of run)

Inputs & Assumptions (model inputs and summary of results)

Power Curves (of wind turbine models – 81 models in all to select from ranging from 1 kW to 2,500 kW)

Wind speed (velocity profile of location)

Wind resource (simulation of hourly wind speed, look-up table to power curves, annual power generation, average capacity factor)

Sensitivity Analysis (implements Monte Carlo Simulation that varies randomly the inputs from 90% to 110% of deterministic value) to arrive at the histogram (probability distribution) of equity and project returns (IRR, NPV, PAYBACK), net present value of income after tax discounted at the pre-tax WACC, pre-tax WACC, and electricity tariff)

Construction Period (up to 60 months or 5 years) – land, equipment cost, transport and insurance, duties and taxes, installation, project development and management, working capital, financing costs such as interest during construction, upfront fees, commitment fee

Operating Period (up to 30 years) – installed capacity, gross generation, station use and losses, net generation, fuel consumption, fixed and variable O&M costs, evolution of expenses and balance sheet accounts

Financials (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, equity returns and project returns (IRR, NPV, PAYBACK), levelized tariff and generation cost breakdown, net profit after tax discounted at the pre-tax WACC, benefit to cost (B/C) ratio (ratio of local and national taxes plus net income after tax to private investor to all-in capital cost).

Asset Base tariff (levelized cost based on asset base)

To secure a user’s license, you may email me for more information at:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

A demo copy may be downloaded for both onshore and offshore wind farm:

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 – Copy – includes 81 wind turbine power curves from onshore WTG manufacturers

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 – Copy – includes 81 wind turbine power curves from  offshore WTG manufacturers

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To purchase any project finance model with Wind turbine Generator Template, please email me

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Purchase any model for USD 800 for the complete package (wind project finance model, wind turbine power curves, wind simulator, wind turbine costs and MCS add-in program) and remit via PayPal (use my gmail account above) or via bank / wire transfer (BPI current account which I will email you once you confirm your order).

If you want it customized with your own specific data and additional rows and columns for income, expense and balance sheet accounts, add another USD 500 for 2-hours of additional work.

Cheers,

Energy technology selection expert

 

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