How to use the advanced (regulator) natural gas CCGT power plant project finance model

July 25th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) natural gas CCGT power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a natural gas CCGT (combined cycle gas turbine) power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a natural gas CCGT power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into natural gas CCGT power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

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Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 917 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 575 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 12th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 14.13 $/kW/year (target cost) = 6,916.62 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 3.60 $/MWh (target cost) = 26.87 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 370.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of natural gas CCGT fuel = 22,129 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 7,050 Btu/kWh (48.40% thermal efficiency)

Cost of fuel per mmBtu = 9.103 $/mmBtu

Cost of natural gas fuel = 8.628 $/GJ = 444.10 $/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 620.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 620.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    96.40% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                     95.00% (assumed)

allowance for losses & own use, %                         5.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    87.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.2%

 

construction period = 36 months (start 2014)

operating period = 25 years (start 2017)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   20.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $99.41 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $458.10 11.4%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 21.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 1.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $40.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $786.21 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $181.82 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 1.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 15.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 48.7%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $99
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $356,450
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $40
   Sub-Station Facility $786
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $63,157
   Construction Contingency $16,437
   Value Added Tax $31,222
   Financing Costs $61,034
   Initial Working Capital $39,316
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $568,542
                                 – PhP 000 28,596,013
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $397,979
   Equity $170,563
Total Sources of Fund $568,542

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 49 %

Foreign Capital = 51 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment: (fossil fuel)

Customs duty = 3%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 0% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (49% local, 51% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Weighted Average Cost of Capital:

WACC = 10.48% p.a.

WACC pre-tax = 11.97% p.a.

WACC after-tax = 8.38% p.a.

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 4.81729 P/kWh = 0.09578 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC):

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel      391,742,442 3.39778
Lubes            133,745 0.00116
Var O&M        21,841,145 0.18944
Total      413,717,332 3.58838
MWh net      115,293,514
SRMC      413,717,332 3.58838
Fix O&M        23,045,754 0.19989
Capital Cost      118,638,864 1.02902
LRMC      555,401,951 4.81729

SRMC = 3.58838 PHP/kWh (variable O&M + fuel + lubes)

LRMC = 4.81729 PHP/kWh (capital cost + fixed O&M + regulatory + SRMC)

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00     ‘000$

PAYBACK = 9.87    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 11.41          % p.a.

NPV        = (4,243,735)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 7.35           years

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The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Natural Gas Combined Cycle GT

 

Download the complete demo model for a natural gas CCGT power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 – demo5b

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

Natural Gas-fired CCGT 620 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

Combined Cycle and Simple (Open) Cycle Gas Turbine Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Combined Cycle and Simple (Open) Cycle Gas Turbine Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for the various natural gas-fired power generation technologies. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Natural gas is a clean fuel that may be used in simple cycle (open cycle or Brayton cycle) gas turbines such as those used in jet engines, or when the waste heat is recovered in a heat recovery boiler (Rankin cycle). This two cycles (Brayton and Rankin) combine to raise the overall thermal efficiency from 33% to over 54%.

More »

Get Your Energy Technology Articles the Easy Way – Shopping Cart

June 19th, 2012 No Comments   Posted in energy technology expert

Get Your Energy Technology Articles the Easy Way – Shopping Cart

You can now order on-line your energy technology articles the easy way – via the Shopping Cart.

Once you have decided to purchase, proceed to order via the shopping cart and pay thru PayPal thru your bank account or your credit card and download immediately the models. More »

New Simplified Calculation Procedure for Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Feed-in Tariff

July 28th, 2010 3 Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

New Simplified Calculation Procedure for Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Feed-in Tariff

As part of the on-going technical preparations for the proposed mini-conference on the Mindanao Power Crisis this coming late August or early September 2010 and the main conference on “Energy & Climate Change”, the workshop coordinator, Mr. Marcial T. Ocampo, has prepared the simplified calculation procedure for calculating the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and levelized selling price (tariff) for conventional and renewable energy resources.

The result of the simplified formulas using the US NREL formula for generation cost and the RP MTO formula for selling price were compared with the results from a full-blown project finance model and the variance between the two methods were minimal in most of the power generation technologies analyzed.

The input data came from the IEPR research summary of 2007 and from internationally published data on power generation technology by noted experts such as Paul Breeze and yours truly, Marcial Ocampo. More »

How to order your project finance models for power plants – get 50% discount via PayPal

December 18th, 2009 Comments Off on How to order your project finance models for power plants – get 50% discount via PayPal Posted in financial models

How to order your project finance models for power plants – get 50% discount (extended 28 Feb 2015) via PayPal

Due to numerous inquiries and tremendous interest, the deadline has been extend up to 28 Feb 2015.  Order now to get 50% discount on any project finance model of your choice.

This advanced model allows you to perform the following:

1) Determine the impact of electricity tariff (selling price) on NPV, IRR and payback given the capital cost, fuel cost and O&M cost.

2) Determine the maximum main fuel price (natural gas, gas oil) to meet IRR given electricity tariff, capital cost and O&M cost.

3) Determine the maximum capital cost (all-in) to meet IRR given electricity tariff, fuel price and O&M cost.

4) Perform sensitivity analysis (+/- 10% change) on variables such as electricity tariff, rated capacity, plant heat rate (efficiency), fuel cost, capital cost and O&M costs on IRR.

5) The IRR may be defined as DCF-ROI (project cost vs cash flow), DCF-ROE (equity portion of project cost vs cash flow), DCF-FC (equity portion vs free cashflow), and discounted DCF-FC (native currency is depreciating vs foreign currency).  The model provides for analysis with escalation (nominal IRR) and without escalation (real IRR).

6) Optimize type of CCGT engine/manufacturer, plant location and cooling system (once thru sea water, once thru lake water, river cooling tower, deep well cooling tower, radiator cooling) and transmission line system (type of conductor).  The optimal configuration is determined by the combination that provides the cheapest electricity tariff, cheapest fuel or highest IRR. More »

How to calculate overall thermal efficiency of combined cycle power plants – a sample CCGT presented

How to calculate overall thermal efficiency of combined cycle power plants – a sample CCGT presented

Calculating or predicting the overall performance of a combined cycle power plant, specifically a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant is sometimes difficult for most design engineers. Your favorite energy technology expert again comes to the rescue – Engineer Marcial T. Ocampo – has derived the following equation to guide the design engineer and project finance modeler or business development engineer in predicting the overall thermal efficiency of the combined cycle. More »

Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

The file (4.26 MB) will cover the following topics:

Combined Cycle GT (CCGT)

GTs have at best efficiencies from 35% to 42%. Almost 60% of the fuel energy is wasted in the turbine exhaust of a GT. Capturing this waste heat in a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is the basis of the combined cycle (Brayton + Rankine). The HRSG produces steam that drives a turbo-generator to produce additional power.

Topics – Combined Cycle GT

  • Operating Principle of a Combined Cycle GT
  • Combined Brayton + Rankine Cycles
  • Comparison of Various CCGT Configurations
  • CCGT (Gas vs Liquid Firing)
  • CCGT Energy Balance
  • Examples of Gas Turbine Technologies
  • Cost of GT Technologies
  • GT and CCGT Plants in the Philippines
  • Advantages, Disadvantages of CCGT
  • Environmental Impact, Risks of CCGT

Price: 80 USD