Complete List of Project Finance Models with Tornado Chart (for Sensitivity Analysis)

February 4th, 2018 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Complete List of Project Finance Models with Tornado Chart (for Sensitivity Analysis)

NOTE:

To download this article to view the charts and tables, please click the link below:

Complete List of Project Finance Models with Tornado Chart (Sensitivity Analysis)

The latest project finance modeling tools from you Energy Technology Selection and Project Finance Modeling Expert now includes Sensitivity Analysis using the Tornado Chart (also known as Spider Chart), as shown below:

The above Tornado Chart (graph) was prepared from the data computed by the Tornado Project Finance Model:

Plant Variable (50 MW) Change in IRR per 20% change % Change 16.44%
-10% 0 10% Base value
Electricity Tariff 9.65% 11.80% 16.44% 21.45% 7.364
Plant Availability Factor 7.55% 12.76% 16.44% 20.31% 97.08%
Fuel Heating Value 2.15% 15.27% 16.44% 17.42% 5,198
Debt Ratio 0.72% 16.17% 16.44% 16.89% 70%
Plant Capacity per Unit 1.00% 15.89% 16.44% 16.89% 50.00
O&M Cost (Opex) – variable O&M -0.25% 16.57% 16.44% 16.32% 27.27
O&M Cost (Opex) – fixed O&M -0.94% 16.91% 16.44% 15.97% 5,132.70
O&M Cost (Opex) – fixed G&A 0.00% 16.44% 16.44% 16.44% 10.00
Cost of Fuel -2.13% 17.52% 16.44% 15.39% 1.299
Plant Heat Rate -2.13% 17.52% 16.44% 15.39% 12,186
Exchange Rate -3.64% 18.46% 16.44% 14.82% 50.00
Capital Cost (Capex) -6.40% 20.02% 16.44% 13.62% 1,964.36

 

As shown in the table above, the biomass cogeneration technology is most positively sensitive for electricity tariff at 9.65% change per 20% change in value (from -10% to +10%) when the inputs are changed one at a time as follows. The equity IRR changes from 11.80% to 21.45% when the base case electricity tariff of 7.364 PHP/kWh is changed by -10% to +10%.

The top 4 positively sensitive variables are electricity tariff (9.65%), plant availability factor (7.55%), fuel heating value (2.15%), and plant capacity (1.00%) when such variable is changed from -10% to +10%.

On the other hand, the capital cost is the most negatively sensitive independent variable at -6.40% for a 20% change from the base capital cost (FOB value from OEM) of 1,964.36 USD/kW as it is changed from -10% to +10%.

The top 4 negatively sensitive variables are capital cost (-6.40%), exchange rate (-3.64%), plant heat rate (-2.13%) which is the inverse of plant thermal efficiency, and cost of fuel (-2.13%) when such variable is changed from -10% to +10%.

Plant Variable (50 MW) Spider Chart (press ctrl + p) (0)
-10% 0% 10% Used Current Value
Electricity Tariff 0.9 1 1.1 1 7.364
Plant Availability Factor 0.9 1 1.1 1 97.08%
Fuel Heating Value 0.9 1 1.1 1 5,198
Debt Ratio 0.9 1 1.1 1 70%
Plant Capacity per Unit 0.9 1 1.1 1 50
O&M Cost (Opex) – variable O&M 0.9 1 1.1 1 27.27
O&M Cost (Opex) – fixed O&M 0.9 1 1.1 1 5,132.70
O&M Cost (Opex) – fixed G&A 0.9 1 1.1 1 10.00
Cost of Fuel 0.9 1 1.1 1 1.299
Plant Heat Rate 0.9 1 1.1 1 12,186
Exchange Rate 0.9 1 1.1 1 50.00
Capital Cost (Capex) 0.9 1 1.1 1 1,964.36

 

SUMMARY OF INPUTS:

Installed capacity:

Unit capacity, MW/unit = 50.00

No. of units = 1

Total installed capacity = 50.00 x 1 = 50.00 MW

Net capacity factor (NCF):

Availability, % of time or days down = 97.08% or 11 days off-line

Load Factor, % of gross capacity = 95.00%

Own Use, % of gross capacity = 10.00%

Net capacity factor target, % = 97.08% x 95.00% x (1 – 10.00%) = 83.00%

Gross generation = 50.00 x (24 x 365) x (97.08% x 95.00%) = 403,933 MWh/year

Net Generation = 50.00 x (24 x 365) x 83.00% = 363,540 MWh/year

All-in Capital and Operating & Maintenance (O&M) costs:

All-in capital cost target, USD/kW = 4,114 (or absolute USD = 4,114 x 50.00 x 1,000)

Fixed O&M cost target, USD/kW/year = 105.63

Variable O&M cost target, USD/MWh = 5.26

G&A cost target, ‘000 USD/year = 10.00

Balance Sheet accounts:

Salvage value = 5% of original value

Days receivable, days = 30

Days payable, days = 30

Days inventory (fuel, lubes, supplies) = 60

Depreciation period (straight line), years = 20

Refurbishment cost (% of EPC as overhaul cost) = 10%

Timing of Refurbishment (year from COD) = 10

Local Component (LC) and Foreign Components (FC):

Target local cost (LC), % of all-in capital cost = 59.2%

Target foreign cost (FC), % of all-in capital cost = 1 – 59.2% = 40.8%

Note: local CAPEX to be funded by local debt

foreign CAPEX to be funded by foreign debt

Local and Foreign Debt:

Local and foreign debt upfront legal & financing fees = 2.00%

Local and foreign commitment fees = 0.50 p.a.

Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD, months = 6

Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (DSR), months = 6

Local Debt All-in Interest Rate excluding tax =10.00% p.a.

Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP), years = 10

Foreign Debt All-in Interest Rate excluding tax =10.00% p.a.

Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP), years = 10

Capital structure and target IRR:

Debt ratio target, % of total capital = 70%

Equity ratio target, % of total capital = 1 – 70% = 30%

Target IRR = 16.44% p.a.

Tax Regime:

Income tax holiday (ITH) = 7 years (pay income tax on 8th year)

Income tax rate (after ITH) = 10% of taxable income

Property tax rate (from COD) = 1.5%

Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) = 80%

Local business tax (% of revenue) = 1.0%

Government share for RE (from COD) = 1.0% of revenues – cost of goods sold

ER 1-94 contribution, PHP/kWh sold = 0.01 (to DOE)

Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT = 10%

Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT = 5%

Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) = 0.5% (not used)

PEZA incentives (income tax rate from COD) = 5% (if used)

Royalty = 1.5% (if used in mini-hydro)

VAT on importation = 12%

VAT recovery rate = 70%

Timing of VAT recovery (years after COD) = 5

Customs duty = 0%

Flags (Switches):

Biomass Fuel switch (1 = yes, 0 = no) = 1

Type of incentives (1 = NO, 2 = BOI, 3 = PEZA) = 2

Value added tax (0 = NO, 1 VAT) = 0 for renewable energy (RE)

Timing:

Construction period (from FC), months = 24

Operating period (from COD) = 20 years (maximum 30)

Years from base year CPI for CAPEX estimates = 1 (usually zero)

Years from base year CPI for OPEX estimates = 1 (usually zero)

Exchange Rate and Inflation:

Base foreign exchange rate, PHP/USD = 50.00

Forward foreign exchange rate, PHP/USD = 50.00

OPEX inflation (CPI): to model real vs. nominal analysis

Local inflation (CPI) = 0.0% p.a. (real analysis)

Foreign inflation (CPI) = 0.0% p.a. (real analysis)

CAPEX inflation (CPI): to model construction delay

Local inflation (CPI) = 4.0% p.a. (escalation of local CAPEX)

Foreign inflation (CPI) = 2.0% p.a. (escalation of foreign CAPEX)

Power plant footprint:

Plant footprint, hectares = 50.00

Price of land (purchased), PHP/m2 = 28.65 (land is purchased)

Land area (lease), m2 = 500,000

Land lease rate , PHP/m2/year = 0.00 (no land lease)

Fuel properties and cost:

Density of solid fuel, kg/MT = 1,000 (for solid biomass)

Density of liquid fuel, kg/L = 0.966 (for liquid fuel oil or bunker)

Cost of bagasse = 1,988 PHP/MT (at 2,275 kcal/kg) at 30% blend

Cost of rice hull = 1,000 PHP/MT (at 3,150 kcal/kg) at 70% blend

Average cost of solid fuel = 1,299 PHP/MT (biomass)

Average cost of liquid fuel = 34.84 PHP/L (fuel oil)

Average cost of gaseous fuel = 8.628 $/GJ (natural gas)

Average heating value of solid fuel, Btu/lb = 5,198 (biomass)

Average heating value of liquid fuel, Btu/lb = 19,500 (fuel oil)

Average heating value of gaseous fuel, Btu/lb = 22,129 (natural gas)

Power plant thermal efficiency or plant heat rate:

Plant heat rate (at 100% efficiency) = 3,600/1.05506 = 3,412 Btu/kWh

Plant heat rate (Btu of GHV per kWh gross) = 12,186

Target Thermal efficiency = 3,412/12,186 = 28.00%

=============================================

Your energy technology selection expert is pleased to announce that deterministic (fixed inputs) and stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) are now available for all power generation technologies (renewable energy such as biomass, solar PV and CSP, wind, mini-hydro, ocean thermal and ocean tidal/current, and conventional energy such as large hydro, geothermal, and fossil energy such as oil diesel and oil thermal, natural gas simple cycle and combined cycle, coal thermal and clean coal technologies, nuclear energy, and energy storage and waste heat recovery and combined heat and power technologies).

You may download the following samples to try the advanced features of using fixed inputs and random inputs in order to manage your project risks:

Deterministic (fixed inputs) model: (USD 700):

Tornado Chart (-10% to +10% sensitivity on inputs) model: (USD 500):

Stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) model (USD 1400):

Before you can run the MCS model, you need to download first the Monte Carlo Simulation add-in and run it before running the MCS model:

MonteCarlito_v1_10

Here is the complete list of deterministic and stochastic project finance models.

RENEWABLE ENERGY

1) process heat (steam) and power (cogeneration)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (spider)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo)

2) bagasse, rice husk or wood waste fired boiler steam turbine generator

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (spider)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo)

3) gasification (thermal conversion in high temperature without oxygen or air

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3 (spider)

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3_MCS (demo)

4) integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3 (spider)

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3_MCS (demo)

5) waste-to-energy (WTE) technology for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal and treatment

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 (spider)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3_MCS (demo)

6) waste-to-energy (WTE) pyrolysis technology

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis (spider)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis_MCS (demo)

7) run-of-river (mini-hydro) power plant

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA (demo)

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA (spider)

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA_MCS (demo)

8) concentrating solar power (CSP) 400 MW

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 (demo)

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 (spider)

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3_MCS (demo)

9) solar PV technology 1 MW Chinese (roof top BIPV)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3 (demo)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3 (spider)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3_MCS (demo)

10) solar PV technology 25 MW European and Non-Chinese (Korean, Japanese, US) (solar PV farm)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 (demo)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 (spider)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3_MCS (demo)

11) includes 81 wind turbine power curves from onshore WTG manufacturers (onshore wind farm)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 (demo)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 (spider)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3_MCS (demo)

12) includes 81 wind turbine power curves from offshore WTG manufacturers (offshore wind farm)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 (demo)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 (spider)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3_MCS (demo)

13) ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 10 MW

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW (spider)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW_MCS (demo)

14) ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 50 MW

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW (spider)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo)

14) ocean current and tidal technology (30 MW) – this is a similar to an air wind turbine but under water with a turbine propeller (Taiwan has an operating prototype in Kuroshio and PNOC-EC is venturing into ocean current at the Tablas Strait).

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW (demo)

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW (spider)

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW_MCS (demo)

 

CONVENTIONAL, FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

1) geothermal power plant 100 MW

ADV Geo Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Geo Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Geo Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

2) large hydro power plant 500 MW

ADV Large Hydro Model3 (demo)

ADV Large Hydro Model3 (spider)

ADV Large Hydro Model3_MCS (demo)

3) subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW (spider)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo)

4) subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 135 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW (spider)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW_MCS (demo)

5) subcritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 400 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

6) supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 500 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

7) ultra-supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 650 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

8) diesel-fueled genset (compression ignition engine) technology 50 MW

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 (demo)

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 (spider)

ADV Diesel Genset Model3_MCS (demo)

9) fuel oil (bunker oil) fired genset (compression ignition engine) technology 100 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 (spider)

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3_MCS (demo)

10) fuel oil (bunker oil) fired oil thermal technology 600 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

11) natural gas combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) 500 MW

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 (spider)

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3_MCS (demo)

12) natural gas simple cycle (open cycle) gas turbine (OCGT) 70 MW

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 (spider)

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3_MCS (demo)

13) natural gas thermal 200 MW

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

14) petroleum coke (petcoke) fired subcritical thermal 220 MW

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (spider)

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

15) nuclear (uranium) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) technology 1330 MW

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 (demo)

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 (spider)

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3_MCS (demo)

WASTE HEAT RECOVERY BOILER (DIESEL genset; GASOLINE genset; PROPANE, LPG or NATURAL GAS simple cycle)

1) combined heat and power (CHP) circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW CHP (demo)

(Tornado Chart model to follow – please order via email)

2) diesel genset (diesel, gas oil) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Diesel Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

(Tornado Chart model to follow – please order via email)

3) fuel oil (bunker) genset and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

(Tornado Chart model to follow – please order via email)

4) gasoline genset (gasoline, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Gasoline Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

(Tornado Chart model to follow – please order via email)

5) simple cycle GT (propane, LPG) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

ADV Propane Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

(Tornado Chart model to follow – please order via email)

6) simple cycle GT (natural gas, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

ADV Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

(Tornado Chart model to follow – please order via email)

A simple user manual on how to use the deterministic and stochastic project finance models and user license information are found in the files below:

_How to run the Advanced Project Finance Models of OMT (ver 3)

_DISCLAIMER, CONTACT INFORMATION, PAYMENT DETAILS and NON-DISCLOSURE

Our company (OMT Energy Enterprises) can also provide customization services to provide you with power plant project finance models with fixed inputs (deterministic models) as well as random inputs (stochastic models).

If you have an existing model which you want to be audited or upgraded to have stochastic modeling capability, you may also avail of our services at an hourly rate of USD200 per hour for a maximum of 5 hours of charge for customization services.

Use the deterministic model to determine project feasibility, e.g. given first year tariff, determine the equity and project returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK), or given the equity or project target returns, determine the first year tariff.

Use the Tornado Chart model to conduct your sensitivity analysis by varying each independent variable one at a time from -10% to +10% and plot the results like in a Tornado Chart or also known as Spider Chart.

Use the stochastic model to determine project risks during the project development stage. By varying the estimation error on the independent variable (+10% and -10%) and conducting 1,000 random trials, this model will show the upper limit of the estimation error so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value (no error).

A pre-feasibility study has a +/- 15-20% estimation error on the independent variables using rule-of-thumb values.

A detailed feasibility study has a +/- 10-15% estimation error on the independent variables using reasonable estimates guided by internet research on suppliers of equipment.

A final bankable feasibility study has a +/- 5-10% estimation error on the independent variables using EPC contractor and OEM supplier bids.

In the case of fuel oil (bunker) genset, for instance, the estimation error on the independent variables should be less than +3% and -3% so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value.

The model inputs consist of the fixed inputs (independent variables) plus a random component as shown below (based on +/- 10% range, which you can edit in the Sensitivity worksheet):

1) Plant availability factor (% of time) = 94.52% x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

2) Fuel heating value (GHV) = 5,198 Btu/lb x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

3) Plant capacity per unit = 12.00 MW/unit x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

4) Variable O&M cost (at 5.26 $/MWh) = 30.05 $000/MW/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

5) Fixed O&M cost (at 105.63 $/kW/year) = 1,227.64 $000/unit/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

6) Fixed G&A cost = 10.00 $000/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

7) Cost of fuel = 1.299 PHP/kg x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

8) Plant heat rate = 12,186 Btu/kWh x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

9) Exchange rate = 43.00 PHP/USD x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

10) Capital cost = 1,935 $/kW x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

The dependent variables that will be simulated using Monte Carlo Simulation and which a distribution curve (when you make bold font the number of random trials) may be generated are as follows:

1) Equity Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 30% equity, 70% debt

2) Project Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 100% equity, 0% debt

3) Net Profit After Tax

4) Pre-Tax WACC

5) Electricity Tariff (Feed-in-Tariff)

The models are in Philippine Pesos (PHP) and may be converted to any foreign currency by inputting the appropriate exchange rate (e.g. 1 USD = 1.0000 USD; 1 USD = 50.000 PHP, 1 USD = 3.800 MYR, etc.). Then do a global replacement in all worksheets of ‘PHP’ with ‘XXX’, where ‘XXX’ is the foreign currency of the model.

To purchase, email me at:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

You may pay using PayPal:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

or via bank/wire transfer:

====================

1) Name of Bank Branch & Address:

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)

Pasig Ortigas Branch

G/F Benpres Building, Exchange Road corner Meralco Avenue

Ortigas Center, PASIG CITY 1605

METRO MANILA, PHILIPPINES

2) Account Name:

Marcial T. Ocampo

3) Account Number:

Current Account = 0205-5062-41

4) SWIFT ID Number = BOPIPHMM

====================

Once I confirm with PayPal or with my BPI current account that the payment has been made, I will then email you the real (un-locked) model to replace the demo model you have downloaded.

Hurry and order now, this offer is only good until January 31, 2018.

Regards,

Your Energy Technology Selection and Project Finance Expert

 

Special Sale on Power Plant Project Finance Models (Deterministic and Stochastic) – Renewable, Conventional, Fossil, Nuclear and Waste Heat Recovery Technologies

January 7th, 2018 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Special Sale on Power Plant Project Finance Models (Deterministic and Stochastic) – Renewable, Conventional, Fossil, Nuclear and Waste Heat Recovery

=============================================

NEWS FLASH JUST NOW.

YOU CAN NOW ORDER AND PURCHASE DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC (MCS) PROJECT FINANCE MODELS IN UNITED STATES DOLLAR (USD).

HERE ARE SOME EXAMPLE DEMO (LOCKED) MODELS:

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

FOR OTHER POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES, YOU MAY ORDER AND PURCHASE BY EMAIL AT:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

AND SPECIFY YOUR TYPE OF MODEL. YOU MAY ALSO INCLUDE IN YOUR EMAIL YOUR SAMPLE INPUTS SO I CAN IMMEDIATELY CUSTOMIZE YOUR MODEL FOR FREE.

Installed capacity:

Unit capacity, MW/unit = 50.00

No. of units = 1

Total installed capacity = 50.00 x 1 = 50.00 MW

Net capacity factor (NCF):

Availability, % of time or days down = 97.08% or 11 days off-line

Load Factor, % of gross capacity = 95.00%

Own Use, % of gross capacity = 10.00%

Net capacity factor target, % = 97.08% x 95.00% x (1 – 10.00%) = 83.00%

Gross generation = 50.00 x (24 x 365) x (97.08% x 95.00%) = 403,933 MWh/year

Net Generation = 50.00 x (24 x 365) x 83.00% = 363,540 MWh/year

All-in Capital and Operating & Maintenance (O&M) costs:

All-in capital cost target, USD/kW = 4,114 (or absolute USD = 4,114 x 50.00 x 1,000)

Fixed O&M cost target, USD/kW/year = 105.63

Variable O&M cost target, USD/MWh = 5.26

G&A cost target, ‘000 USD/year = 10.00

Balance Sheet accounts:

Salvage value = 5% of original value

Days receivable, days = 30

Days payable, days = 30

Days inventory (fuel, lubes, supplies) = 60

Depreciation period (straight line), years = 20

Refurbishment cost (% of EPC as overhaul cost) = 10%

Timing of Refurbishment (year from COD) = 10

Local Component (LC) and Foreign Components (FC):

Target local cost (LC), % of all-in capital cost = 59.2%

Target foreign cost (FC), % of all-in capital cost = 1 – 59.2% = 40.8%

Note: local CAPEX to be funded by local debt

foreign CAPEX to be funded by foreign debt

Local and Foreign Debt:

Local and foreign debt upfront legal & financing fees = 2.00%

Local and foreign commitment fees = 0.50 p.a.

Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD, months = 6

Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (DSR), months = 6

Local Debt All-in Interest Rate excluding tax =10.00% p.a.

Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP), years = 10

Foreign Debt All-in Interest Rate excluding tax =10.00% p.a.

Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP), years = 10

Capital structure and target IRR:

Debt ratio target, % of total capital = 70%

Equity ratio target, % of total capital = 1 – 70% = 30%

Target IRR = 16.44% p.a.

Tax Regime:

Income tax holiday (ITH) = 7 years (pay income tax on 8th year)

Income tax rate (after ITH) = 10% of taxable income

Property tax rate (from COD) = 1.5%

Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) = 80%

Local business tax (% of revenue) = 1.0%

Government share for RE (from COD) = 1.0% of revenues – cost of goods sold

ER 1-94 contribution, PHP/kWh sold = 0.01 (to DOE)

Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT = 10%

Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT = 5%

Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) = 0.5% (not used)

PEZA incentives (income tax rate from COD) = 5% (if used)

Royalty = 1.5% (if used in mini-hydro)

VAT on importation = 12%

VAT recovery rate = 70%

Timing of VAT recovery (years after COD) = 5

Customs duty = 0%

Flags (Switches):

Biomass Fuel switch (1 = yes, 0 = no) = 1

Type of incentives (1 = NO, 2 = BOI, 3 = PEZA) = 2

Value added tax (0 = NO, 1 VAT) = 0 for renewable energy (RE)

Timing:

Construction period (from FC), months = 24

Operating period (from COD) = 20 years (maximum 30)

Years from base year CPI for CAPEX estimates = 1 (usually zero)

Years from base year CPI for OPEX estimates = 1 (usually zero)

Exchange Rate and Inflation:

Base foreign exchange rate, PHP/USD = 50.00

Forward foreign exchange rate, PHP/USD = 50.00

OPEX inflation (CPI): to model real vs. nominal analysis

Local inflation (CPI) = 0.0% p.a. (real analysis)

Foreign inflation (CPI) = 0.0% p.a. (real analysis)

CAPEX inflation (CPI): to model construction delay

Local inflation (CPI) = 4.0% p.a. (escalation of local CAPEX)

Foreign inflation (CPI) = 2.0% p.a. (escalation of foreign CAPEX)

Power plant footprint:

Plant footprint, hectares = 50.00

Price of land (purchased), PHP/m2 = 28.65 (land is purchased)

Land area (lease), m2 = 500,000

Land lease rate , PHP/m2/year = 0.00 (no land lease)

Fuel properties and cost:

Density of solid fuel, kg/MT = 1,000 (for solid biomass)

Density of liquid fuel, kg/L = 0.966 (for liquid fuel oil or bunker)

Cost of bagasse = 1,988 PHP/MT (at 2,275 kcal/kg) at 30% blend

Cost of rice hull = 1,000 PHP/MT (at 3,150 kcal/kg) at 70% blend

Average cost of solid fuel = 1,299 PHP/MT (biomass)

Average cost of liquid fuel = 34.84 PHP/L (fuel oil)

Average cost of gaseous fuel = 8.628 $/GJ (natural gas)

Average heating value of solid fuel, Btu/lb = 5,198 (biomass)

Average heating value of liquid fuel, Btu/lb = 19,500 (fuel oil)

Average heating value of gaseous fuel, Btu/lb = 22,129 (natural gas)

Power plant thermal efficiency or plant heat rate:

Plant heat rate (at 100% efficiency) = 3,600/1.05506 = 3,412 Btu/kWh

Plant heat rate (Btu of GHV per kWh gross) = 12,186

Target Thermal efficiency = 3,412/12,186 = 28.00%

=============================================

This is a special offer for the entire year of 2018. For the price of a deterministic model, you get a free copy of a stochastic model.

Our company (OMT Energy Enterprises) can also provide customization services to provide you with power plant project finance models with fixed inputs (deterministic models) as well as random inputs (stochastic models).

If you have an existing model which you want to be audited or upgraded to have stochastic modeling capability, you may also avail of our services at an hourly rate of USD200 per hour for a maximum of 5 hours of charge for customization services.

Use the deterministic model to determine project feasibility, e.g. given first year tariff, determine the equity and project returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK), or given the equity or project target returns, determine the first year tariff.

Use the stochastic model to determine project risks during the project development stage. By varying the estimation error on the independent variable (+10% and -10%) and conducting 1,000 random trials, this model will show the upper limit of the estimation error so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value (no error).

A pre-feasibility study has a +/- 15-20% estimation error on the independent variables using rule-of-thumb values.

A detailed feasibility study has a +/- 10-15% estimation error on the independent variables using reasonable estimates guided by internet research on suppliers of equipment.

A final bankable feasibility study has a +/- 5-10% estimation error on the independent variables using EPC contractor and OEM supplier bids.

In the case of fuel oil (bunker) genset, for instance, the estimation error on the independent variables should be less than +3% and -3% so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value.

The model inputs consist of the fixed inputs (independent variables) plus a random component as shown below (based on +/- 10% range, which you can edit in the Sensitivity worksheet):

1) Plant availability factor (% of time) = 94.52% x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

2) Fuel heating value (GHV) = 5,198 Btu/lb x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

3) Plant capacity per unit = 12.00 MW/unit x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

4) Variable O&M cost (at 5.26 $/MWh) = 30.05 $000/MW/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

5) Fixed O&M cost (at 105.63 $/kW/year) = 1,227.64 $000/unit/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

6) Fixed G&A cost = 10.00 $000/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

7) Cost of fuel = 1.299 PHP/kg x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

8) Plant heat rate = 12,186 Btu/kWh x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

9) Exchange rate = 43.00 PHP/USD x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

10) Capital cost = 1,935 $/kW x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

The dependent variables that will be simulated using Monte Carlo Simulation and which a distribution curve (when you make bold font the number of random trials) may be generated are as follows:

1) Equity Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 30% equity, 70% debt

2) Project Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 100% equity, 0% debt

3) Net Profit After Tax

4) Pre-Tax WACC

5) Electricity Tariff (Feed-in-Tariff)

The following deterministic (fixed inputs) and stochastic (random inputs using Monte Carlo Simulation) models may be downloaded for only USD1,400.

Before you can run the MCS model, you need to download first the Monte Carlo Simulation add-in and run it before running the MCS model:

MonteCarlito_v1_10

The models for renewable, conventional, fossil, nuclear, energy storage, and combined heat and power (CHP) project finance models are based on a single template so that you can prioritize which power generation technology to apply in a given application for more detailed design and economic study.

The models below are in Philippine Pesos (PHP) and may be converted to any foreign currency by inputting the appropriate exchange rate (e.g. 1 USD = 1.0000 USD; 1 USD = 50.000 PHP, 1 USD = 3.800 MYR, etc.). Then do a global replacement in all worksheets of ‘PHP’ with ‘XXX’, where ‘XXX’ is the foreign currency of the model.

RENEWABLE ENERGY

process heat (steam) and power

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-cogeneration-project-finance-model-ver-3/

bagasse, rice husk or wood waste fired boiler steam turbine generator

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-direct-combustion-project-finance-model-ver-3/

gasification (thermal conversion in high temperature without oxygen or air)

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-gasification-project-finance-model-ver-3/

integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-igcc-project-finance-model-ver-3/

waste-to-energy (WTE) technology for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal and treatment

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-waste-to-energy-wte-project-finance-model-ver-3-2/

waste-to-energy (WTE) pyrolysis technology

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-waste-to-energy-wte-pyrolysis-project-finance-model-ver-3/

run-of-river (mini-hydro) power plant

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-mini-hydro-run-of-river-project-finance-model-ver-3/

concentrating solar power (CSP) 400 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-concentrating-solar-power-csp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

solar PV technology 1 MW Chinese

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-solar-photo-voltaic-pv-project-finance-model-ver-3-1-mw/

solar PV technology 25 MW European and Non-Chinese (Korean, Japanese, US)

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-solar-photo-voltaic-pv-project-finance-model-ver-3-25-mw/

includes 81 wind turbine power curves from onshore WTG manufacturers

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-onshore-wind-energy-project-finance-model-ver-3-copy/

includes 81 wind turbine power curves from offshore WTG manufacturers

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-offshore-wind-project-finance-model-ver-3/

ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 10 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-ocean-thermal-energy-conversion-otec-10-mw-project-finance-model-ver-3/

ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 50 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-ocean-thermal-energy-conversion-otec-project-finance-model-ver-3-50-mw/

CONVENTIONAL, FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

geothermal power plant 100 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-geo-thermal-project-finance-model-ver-3/

large hydro power plant 500 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-large-hydro-impoundment-project-finance-model-ver-3/

subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-coal-fired-circulating-fluidized-cfb-project-finance-model-ver-3-50-mw/

subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 135 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-coal-fired-circulating-fluidized-bed-cfb-project-finance-model-ver-3-135-mw/

subcritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 400 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-pulverized-coal-pc-subcritical-project-finance-model-ver-3/

supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 500 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-pulverized-coal-pc-supercritical-project-finance-model-ver-3/

ultra-supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 650 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-pulverized-coal-pc-ultrasupercritical-project-finance-model-ver-3/

diesel-fueled genset (compression ignition engine) technology 50 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-diesel-genset-project-finance-model-ver-3-copy/

fuel oil (bunker oil) fired genset (compression ignition engine) technology 100 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-fuel-oil-genset-project-finance-model-ver-3-copy-2/

fuel oil (bunker oil) fired oil thermal technology 600 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-fuel-oil-thermal-project-finance-model-ver-3/

natural gas combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) 500 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-natgas-fired-combined-cycle-gas-turbine-ccgt-project-finance-model-ver-3/

natural gas simple cycle (open cycle) gas turbine (OCGT) 70 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-natgas-fired-open-cycle-gas-turbine-ocgt-project-finance-model-ver-3/

natural gas thermal 200 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-natgas-fired-thermal-project-finance-model-ver-3/

petroleum coke (petcoke) fired subcritical thermal 220 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-petcoke-thermal-power-plant-project-finance-model-ver-3/

nuclear (uranium) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) technology 1330 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-nuclear-power-phwr-project-finance-model-ver-3/

WASTE HEAT RECOVERY BOILER (DIESEL genset; GASOLINE genset; PROPANE, LPG or NATURAL GAS simple cycle)

combined heat and power (CHP) circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-coal-fired-cfb-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

diesel genset (diesel, gas oil) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-diesel-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

fuel oil (bunker) genset and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-bunker-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

gasoline genset (gasoline, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-gasoline-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

simple cycle GT (propane, LPG) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-lpg-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

simple cycle GT (natural gas, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-natgas-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

Cheers,

Your energy technology selection and project finance modeling expert

Complete List of Deterministic and Stochastic Project Finance Models

January 5th, 2018 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Complete List of Deterministic (fixed inputs) and Stochastic (random inputs) Project Finance Models

=============================================

NEWS FLASH JUST NOW.

YOU CAN NOW ORDER AND PURCHASE DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC (MCS) PROJECT FINANCE MODELS IN UNITED STATES DOLLAR (USD).

HERE ARE SOME EXAMPLE DEMO (LOCKED) MODELS:

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo) (USD)

FOR OTHER POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES, YOU MAY ORDER AND PURCHASE BY EMAIL AT:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

AND SPECIFY YOUR TYPE OF MODEL. YOU MAY ALSO INCLUDE IN YOUR EMAIL YOUR SAMPLE INPUTS SO I CAN IMMEDIATELY CUSTOMIZE YOUR MODEL FOR FREE.

Installed capacity:

Unit capacity, MW/unit = 50.00

No. of units = 1

Total installed capacity = 50.00 x 1 = 50.00 MW

Net capacity factor (NCF):

Availability, % of time or days down = 97.08% or 11 days off-line

Load Factor, % of gross capacity = 95.00%

Own Use, % of gross capacity = 10.00%

Net capacity factor target, % = 97.08% x 95.00% x (1 – 10.00%) = 83.00%

Gross generation = 50.00 x (24 x 365) x (97.08% x 95.00%) = 403,933 MWh/year

Net Generation = 50.00 x (24 x 365) x 83.00% = 363,540 MWh/year

All-in Capital and Operating & Maintenance (O&M) costs:

All-in capital cost target, USD/kW = 4,114 (or absolute USD = 4,114 x 50.00 x 1,000)

Fixed O&M cost target, USD/kW/year = 105.63

Variable O&M cost target, USD/MWh = 5.26

G&A cost target, ‘000 USD/year = 10.00

Balance Sheet accounts:

Salvage value = 5% of original value

Days receivable, days = 30

Days payable, days = 30

Days inventory (fuel, lubes, supplies) = 60

Depreciation period (straight line), years = 20

Refurbishment cost (% of EPC as overhaul cost) = 10%

Timing of Refurbishment (year from COD) = 10

Local Component (LC) and Foreign Components (FC):

Target local cost (LC), % of all-in capital cost = 59.2%

Target foreign cost (FC), % of all-in capital cost = 1 – 59.2% = 40.8%

Note: local CAPEX to be funded by local debt

foreign CAPEX to be funded by foreign debt

Local and Foreign Debt:

Local and foreign debt upfront legal & financing fees = 2.00%

Local and foreign commitment fees = 0.50 p.a.

Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD, months = 6

Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (DSR), months = 6

Local Debt All-in Interest Rate excluding tax =10.00% p.a.

Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP), years = 10

Foreign Debt All-in Interest Rate excluding tax =10.00% p.a.

Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP), years = 10

Capital structure and target IRR:

Debt ratio target, % of total capital = 70%

Equity ratio target, % of total capital = 1 – 70% = 30%

Target IRR = 16.44% p.a.

Tax Regime:

Income tax holiday (ITH) = 7 years (pay income tax on 8th year)

Income tax rate (after ITH) = 10% of taxable income

Property tax rate (from COD) = 1.5%

Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) = 80%

Local business tax (% of revenue) = 1.0%

Government share for RE (from COD) = 1.0% of revenues – cost of goods sold

ER 1-94 contribution, PHP/kWh sold = 0.01 (to DOE)

Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT = 10%

Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT = 5%

Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) = 0.5% (not used)

PEZA incentives (income tax rate from COD) = 5% (if used)

Royalty = 1.5% (if used in mini-hydro)

VAT on importation = 12%

VAT recovery rate = 70%

Timing of VAT recovery (years after COD) = 5

Customs duty = 0%

Flags (Switches):

Biomass Fuel switch (1 = yes, 0 = no) = 1

Type of incentives (1 = NO, 2 = BOI, 3 = PEZA) = 2

Value added tax (0 = NO, 1 VAT) = 0 for renewable energy (RE)

Timing:

Construction period (from FC), months = 24

Operating period (from COD) = 20 years (maximum 30)

Years from base year CPI for CAPEX estimates = 1 (usually zero)

Years from base year CPI for OPEX estimates = 1 (usually zero)

Exchange Rate and Inflation:

Base foreign exchange rate, PHP/USD = 50.00

Forward foreign exchange rate, PHP/USD = 50.00

OPEX inflation (CPI): to model real vs. nominal analysis

Local inflation (CPI) = 0.0% p.a. (real analysis)

Foreign inflation (CPI) = 0.0% p.a. (real analysis)

CAPEX inflation (CPI): to model construction delay

Local inflation (CPI) = 4.0% p.a. (escalation of local CAPEX)

Foreign inflation (CPI) = 2.0% p.a. (escalation of foreign CAPEX)

Power plant footprint:

Plant footprint, hectares = 50.00

Price of land (purchased), PHP/m2 = 28.65 (land is purchased)

Land area (lease), m2 = 500,000

Land lease rate , PHP/m2/year = 0.00 (no land lease)

Fuel properties and cost:

Density of solid fuel, kg/MT = 1,000 (for solid biomass)

Density of liquid fuel, kg/L = 0.966 (for liquid fuel oil or bunker)

Cost of bagasse = 1,988 PHP/MT (at 2,275 kcal/kg) at 30% blend

Cost of rice hull = 1,000 PHP/MT (at 3,150 kcal/kg) at 70% blend

Average cost of solid fuel = 1,299 PHP/MT (biomass)

Average cost of liquid fuel = 34.84 PHP/L (fuel oil)

Average cost of gaseous fuel = 8.628 $/GJ (natural gas)

Average heating value of solid fuel, Btu/lb = 5,198 (biomass)

Average heating value of liquid fuel, Btu/lb = 19,500 (fuel oil)

Average heating value of gaseous fuel, Btu/lb = 22,129 (natural gas)

Power plant thermal efficiency or plant heat rate:

Plant heat rate (at 100% efficiency) = 3,600/1.05506 = 3,412 Btu/kWh

Plant heat rate (Btu of GHV per kWh gross) = 12,186

Target Thermal efficiency = 3,412/12,186 = 28.00%

=============================================

Your energy technology selection expert is pleased to announce that deterministic (fixed inputs) and stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) are now available for all power generation technologies (renewable energy such as biomass, solar PV and CSP, wind, mini-hydro, ocean thermal and ocean tidal/current, and conventional energy such as large hydro, geothermal, and fossil energy such as oil diesel and oil thermal, natural gas simple cycle and combined cycle, coal thermal and clean coal technologies, nuclear energy, and energy storage and waste heat recovery and combined heat and power technologies).

You may download the following samples to try the advanced features of using fixed inputs and random inputs in order to manage your project risks:

Deterministic (fixed inputs) model: (USD 700):

Stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) model (USD 1400):

Before you can run the MCS model, you need to download first the Monte Carlo Simulation add-in and run it before running the MCS model:

MonteCarlito_v1_10

Here is the complete list of deterministic and stochastic project finance models.

RENEWABLE ENERGY

1) process heat (steam) and power (cogeneration)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

2) bagasse, rice husk or wood waste fired boiler steam turbine generator

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

3) gasification (thermal conversion in high temperature without oxygen or air

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

4) integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

5) waste-to-energy (WTE) technology for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal and treatment

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

6) waste-to-energy (WTE) pyrolysis technology

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis_MCS (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis_MCS (demo) (USD)

7) run-of-river (mini-hydro) power plant

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA (demo)

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA (demo) (USD)

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA_MCS (demo)

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA_MCS (demo) (USD)

8) concentrating solar power (CSP) 400 MW

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 (demo)

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

9) solar PV technology 1 MW Chinese (roof top BIPV)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3 (demo)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

10) solar PV technology 25 MW European and Non-Chinese (Korean, Japanese, US) (solar PV farm)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 (demo)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

11) includes 81 wind turbine power curves from onshore WTG manufacturers (onshore wind farm)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 (demo)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

12) includes 81 wind turbine power curves from offshore WTG manufacturers (offshore wind farm)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 (demo)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

13) ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 10 MW

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW (demo) (USD)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW_MCS (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW_MCS (demo) (USD)

14) ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 50 MW

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo) (USD)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo) (USD)

14) ocean current and tidal technology (30 MW) – this is a similar to an air wind turbine but under water with a turbine propeller (Taiwan has an operating prototype in Kuroshio and PNOC-EC is venturing into ocean current at the Tablas Strait).

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW (demo)

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW (demo) (USD)

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW_MCS (demo)

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW_MCS (demo) (USD)

CONVENTIONAL, FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

1) geothermal power plant 100 MW

ADV Geo Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Geo Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Geo Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Geo Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

2) large hydro power plant 500 MW

ADV Large Hydro Model3 (demo)

ADV Large Hydro Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Large Hydro Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Large Hydro Model3_MCS (demo) (USD

3) subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo) (USD)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo) (USD)

4) subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 135 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW (demo) (USD)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW_MCS (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW_MCS (demo) (USD)

5) subcritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 400 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

6) supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 500 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

7) ultra-supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 650 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

8) diesel-fueled genset (compression ignition engine) technology 50 MW

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 (demo)

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Diesel Genset Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Diesel Genset Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

9) fuel oil (bunker oil) fired genset (compression ignition engine) technology 100 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

10) fuel oil (bunker oil) fired oil thermal technology 600 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

11) natural gas combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) 500 MW

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

12) natural gas simple cycle (open cycle) gas turbine (OCGT) 70 MW

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

13) natural gas thermal 200 MW

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

14) petroleum coke (petcoke) fired subcritical thermal 220 MW

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

15) nuclear (uranium) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) technology 1330 MW

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 (demo)

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3_MCS (demo)

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

 

WASTE HEAT RECOVERY BOILER (DIESEL genset; GASOLINE genset; PROPANE, LPG or NATURAL GAS simple cycle)

1) combined heat and power (CHP) circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW CHP (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW CHP (demo) (USD)

 2) diesel genset (diesel, gas oil) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Diesel Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

ADV Diesel Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo) (USD)

 3) fuel oil (bunker) genset and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo) (USD)

 4) gasoline genset (gasoline, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Gasoline Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

ADV Gasoline Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo) (USD)

 5) simple cycle GT (propane, LPG) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

ADV Propane Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

ADV Propane Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo) (USD)

 6) simple cycle GT (natural gas, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

ADV Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

ADV Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo) (USD)

A simple user manual on how to use the deterministic and stochastic project finance models and user license information are found in the files below:

_How to run the Advanced Project Finance Models of OMT (ver 3)

_DISCLAIMER, CONTACT INFORMATION, PAYMENT DETAILS and NON-DISCLOSURE

Our company (OMT Energy Enterprises) can also provide customization services to provide you with power plant project finance models with fixed inputs (deterministic models) as well as random inputs (stochastic models).

If you have an existing model which you want to be audited or upgraded to have stochastic modeling capability, you may also avail of our services at an hourly rate of USD200 per hour for a maximum of 5 hours of charge for customization services.

Use the deterministic model to determine project feasibility, e.g. given first year tariff, determine the equity and project returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK), or given the equity or project target returns, determine the first year tariff.

Use the stochastic model to determine project risks during the project development stage. By varying the estimation error on the independent variable (+10% and -10%) and conducting 1,000 random trials, this model will show the upper limit of the estimation error so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value (no error).

A pre-feasibility study has a +/- 15-20% estimation error on the independent variables using rule-of-thumb values.

A detailed feasibility study has a +/- 10-15% estimation error on the independent variables using reasonable estimates guided by internet research on suppliers of equipment.

A final bankable feasibility study has a +/- 5-10% estimation error on the independent variables using EPC contractor and OEM supplier bids.

In the case of fuel oil (bunker) genset, for instance, the estimation error on the independent variables should be less than +3% and -3% so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value.

The model inputs consist of the fixed inputs (independent variables) plus a random component as shown below (based on +/- 10% range, which you can edit in the Sensitivity worksheet):

1) Plant availability factor (% of time) = 94.52% x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

2) Fuel heating value (GHV) = 5,198 Btu/lb x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

3) Plant capacity per unit = 12.00 MW/unit x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

4) Variable O&M cost (at 5.26 $/MWh) = 30.05 $000/MW/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

5) Fixed O&M cost (at 105.63 $/kW/year) = 1,227.64 $000/unit/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

6) Fixed G&A cost = 10.00 $000/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

7) Cost of fuel = 1.299 PHP/kg x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

8) Plant heat rate = 12,186 Btu/kWh x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

9) Exchange rate = 43.00 PHP/USD x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

10) Capital cost = 1,935 $/kW x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

The dependent variables that will be simulated using Monte Carlo Simulation and which a distribution curve (when you make bold font the number of random trials) may be generated are as follows:

1) Equity Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 30% equity, 70% debt

2) Project Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 100% equity, 0% debt

3) Net Profit After Tax

4) Pre-Tax WACC

5) Electricity Tariff (Feed-in-Tariff)

The models are in Philippine Pesos (PHP) and may be converted to any foreign currency by inputting the appropriate exchange rate (e.g. 1 USD = 1.0000 USD; 1 USD = 50.000 PHP, 1 USD = 3.800 MYR, etc.). Then do a global replacement in all worksheets of ‘PHP’ with ‘XXX’, where ‘XXX’ is the foreign currency of the model.

 

To purchase, email me at:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

 

You may pay using PayPal:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

or via bank/wire transfer:

====================

1) Name of Bank Branch & Address:

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)

Pasig Ortigas Branch

G/F Benpres Building, Exchange Road corner Meralco Avenue

Ortigas Center, PASIG CITY 1605

METRO MANILA, PHILIPPINES

2) Account Name:

Marcial T. Ocampo

3) Account Number:

Current Account = 0205-5062-41

4) SWIFT ID Number = BOPIPHMM

====================

Once I confirm with PayPal or with my BPI current account that the payment has been made, I will then email you the real (un-locked) model to replace the demo model you have downloaded.

Hurry and order now, this offer is only good until January 31, 2018.

Regards,

Your Energy Technology Selection and Project Finance Expert

 

Get Your Energy Technology Articles the Easy Way – Shopping Cart

June 19th, 2012 No Comments   Posted in energy technology expert

Get Your Energy Technology Articles the Easy Way – Shopping Cart

You can now order on-line your energy technology articles the easy way – via the Shopping Cart.

Once you have decided to purchase, proceed to order via the shopping cart and pay thru PayPal thru your bank account or your credit card and download immediately the models. More »