Updates on conference on “Energy & Climate Change”

August 8th, 2010 No Comments   Posted in energy & climate change

Updates on conference on “Energy & Climate Change”

To all speakers, reactors, contributors, donors:

Nice to communicate with you again.

While awaiting your response to our invitation as speaker, reactor, contributor/donor, the technical team of this conference organizer has been busy preparing the background materials to both the mini-conference on the Mindanao Power Crisis (proposed venue Xavier University, Cagayan de Oro City) and the main-conference on “Energy & Climate Change” (proposed venue – ADB Pasig City, Ateneo Quezon City or AIM Makati City).

To date, we have accomplished the following:

1) Prepared draft program and list of speakers and topics (awaiting response)

2) Awaiting firm proposal from sponsors who would like to support this two conferences and the preparation of the conference proceedings (a draft budget has been prepared and circulated to ADB, PCCC, awaiting ADB/DOE/PCCC response).

3) Made research on all power generation technologies, brief history, process description, efficiency, overnight capital cost, fixed and variable O&M, economic life – IEPR, Paul Breeze, MTO energy data base, Internet Google search

4) Made financial models for calculating levelized generation cost and levelized selling price (tariff) using simplified formulas (US NREL and RP MTO) and full-scale project finance models for each power generation technology

5) Obtained latest Power Development Plan (PDP 2009-2030), Philippine Energy Plan (PEP 2009-2030) and TRANSCO/NGCP Transmission Development Plan 2009-2018

6) Prepared models for calculating GHG carbon emissions (CO2) and levelized selling price for the entire country given the following scenarios:

a) Oil Demand Outlook – reference case, alternative demand scenario

b) Cumulative Installed Capacity & Power Generation Forecast – reference scenario, low carbon scenario 1 (high renewable energy), low carbon scenario 2 (high renewable energy & nuclear)

To date, we are  updating the input data, harmonizing the conversion factors (gross heating value, density, efficiencies, BFOE per kWh, MTOE, etc) so that by giving the oil demand/consumption and the power generation mix (MW and GWh), the model will instantly calculate the resulting average levelized selling price (tariff) for the country and the GHG emission (mt CO2).

The model will also calculate its effectiveness (% reduction in tariff and % reduction in GHG emission) so as to guide the policy maker in refining his development scenario which he wants to analyze.

The model is therefore very intuitive – it gives immediately the climate change impact of the proposed policy and also gives an estimate in the change in power prices.

Alternatively, if we use Input-Output methods, the impact of the policy change that results in a power price disturbance will be also be predicted in advance as to its impact on the GDP and the price of other goods and services.

I hope that with this update, the respective speakers/reactors will confirm their attendance and preferred topics, as well as communicate with me and the technical team for any other data and information that they may need in preparing well for this historic event.

Regards to all,

MARCIAL T. OCAMPO

 

President, Winning Edge Lending Corporation

Energy Technology Selection & Business Development Consultant

Email: mars_ocampo@yahoo.com

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Web:   www.energytechnologyexpert.com

http://ph.linkedin.com/in/ocampomarcial

New Simplified Calculation Procedure for Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Feed-in Tariff

July 28th, 2010 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

New Simplified Calculation Procedure for Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Feed-in Tariff

As part of the on-going technical preparations for the proposed mini-conference on the Mindanao Power Crisis this coming late August or early September 2010 and the main conference on “Energy & Climate Change”, the workshop coordinator, Mr. Marcial T. Ocampo, has prepared the simplified calculation procedure for calculating the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and levelized selling price (tariff) for conventional and renewable energy resources.

The result of the simplified formulas using the US NREL formula for generation cost and the RP MTO formula for selling price were compared with the results from a full-blown project finance model and the variance between the two methods were minimal in most of the power generation technologies analyzed.

The input data came from the IEPR research summary of 2007 and from internationally published data on power generation technology by noted experts such as Paul Breeze and yours truly, Marcial Ocampo. More »

How to Optimize Power Plant Design and Configuration (technology, capacity, efficiency, location)

January 11th, 2010 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to Optimize Power Plant Design and Configuration (technology, capacity, efficiency, location) – see download file for input data

Optimizing the overall project concept during the plant feasibility study and detailed engineering study is a common problem faced by project developers and EPC contractors.  The question commonly asked by project owners from project developers and designers are:

(1) What engine/manufacturer should be considered (e.g. Siemens, Westinghouse, General Electric, Mitsubishi, Alstom, etc)? More »

Mini-Hydro Power Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Generation Cost and Financial Model with CDM Carbon Credits

November 26th, 2009 1 Comment   Posted in financial models

Mini-Hydro Power Feed-In Tariff, Levelized Generation Cost and Financial Model with CDM Carbon Credits

The following is a snippet of my state-of-the-art project finance model for calculating feed-in tariff, levelized cost of energy, and financial model (generation, fuel requirement, income statement, cash flow statement, balance sheet and financial ratios).  To secure a copy of the spreadsheet, click the ENERGY DATA page for arrangements.

More »

How to predict early safe release of dam water – 2nd comment from Philippine Star Federico Pascual

October 18th, 2009 No Comments   Posted in environmental impacts

FYI… Postscript for Thursday, Oct. 18,

quotes Mr. M. Ocampo.

POSTSCRIPT/ PhilSTAR/ Oct. 15, 2009/ Thursday

By Federico D. Pascual Jr.

* * *

UNSTEADY HAND: In the Senate, one listens in horror to the testimony of dam managers and executives of the National Power Corp., upon whose judgment rests the crucial decision of when and how to release impounded water from the dams.

Their unsteady hand is poised on the lever that could unleash death and destruction on communities downstream — as had happened in the recent flooding in Central and Northern Luzon that killed hundreds and destroyed properties worth billions of pesos.

Their testimony and buck-passing gave the impression they think that dam water is released only when the reservoir is dangerously full, and that that is done mainly to save the structure from collapse. More »