Special Sale on Power Plant Project Finance Models (Deterministic and Stochastic) – Renewable, Conventional, Fossil, Nuclear and Waste Heat Recovery Technologies

January 7th, 2018 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Special Sale on Power Plant Project Finance Models (Deterministic and Stochastic) – Renewable, Conventional, Fossil, Nuclear and Waste Heat Recovery

=============================================

NEWS FLASH JUST NOW.

YOU CAN NOW ORDER AND PURCHASE DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC (MCS) PROJECT FINANCE MODELS IN UNITED STATES DOLLAR (USD).

HERE ARE SOME EXAMPLE DEMO (LOCKED) MODELS:

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo) – in PHP

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo) – in PHP

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo) – in PHP

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) – in PHP

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

FOR OTHER POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES, YOU MAY ORDER AND PURCHASE BY EMAIL AT:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

AND SPECIFY YOUR TYPE OF MODEL. YOU MAY ALSO INCLUDE IN YOUR EMAIL YOUR SAMPLE INPUTS SO I CAN IMMEDIATELY CUSTOMIZE YOUR MODEL FOR FREE.

=============================================

This is a special offer for the entire year of 2018. For the price of a deterministic model, you get a free copy of a stochastic model.

Our company (OMT Energy Enterprises) can also provide customization services to provide you with power plant project finance models with fixed inputs (deterministic models) as well as random inputs (stochastic models).

If you have an existing model which you want to be audited or upgraded to have stochastic modeling capability, you may also avail of our services at an hourly rate of USD200 per hour for a maximum of 5 hours of charge for customization services.

Use the deterministic model to determine project feasibility, e.g. given first year tariff, determine the equity and project returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK), or given the equity or project target returns, determine the first year tariff.

Use the stochastic model to determine project risks during the project development stage. By varying the estimation error on the independent variable (+10% and -10%) and conducting 1,000 random trials, this model will show the upper limit of the estimation error so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value (no error).

A pre-feasibility study has a +/- 15-20% estimation error on the independent variables using rule-of-thumb values.

A detailed feasibility study has a +/- 10-15% estimation error on the independent variables using reasonable estimates guided by internet research on suppliers of equipment.

A final bankable feasibility study has a +/- 5-10% estimation error on the independent variables using EPC contractor and OEM supplier bids.

In the case of fuel oil (bunker) genset, for instance, the estimation error on the independent variables should be less than +3% and -3% so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value.

The model inputs consist of the fixed inputs (independent variables) plus a random component as shown below (based on +/- 10% range, which you can edit in the Sensitivity worksheet):

1) Plant availability factor (% of time) = 94.52% x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

2) Fuel heating value (GHV) = 5,198 Btu/lb x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

3) Plant capacity per unit = 12.00 MW/unit x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

4) Variable O&M cost (at 5.26 $/MWh) = 30.05 $000/MW/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

5) Fixed O&M cost (at 105.63 $/kW/year) = 1,227.64 $000/unit/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

6) Fixed G&A cost = 10.00 $000/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

7) Cost of fuel = 1.299 PHP/kg x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

8) Plant heat rate = 12,186 Btu/kWh x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

9) Exchange rate = 43.00 PHP/USD x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

10) Capital cost = 1,935 $/kW x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

The dependent variables that will be simulated using Monte Carlo Simulation and which a distribution curve (when you make bold font the number of random trials) may be generated are as follows:

1) Equity Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 30% equity, 70% debt

2) Project Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 100% equity, 0% debt

3) Net Profit After Tax

4) Pre-Tax WACC

5) Electricity Tariff (Feed-in-Tariff)

The following deterministic (fixed inputs) and stochastic (random inputs using Monte Carlo Simulation) models may be downloaded for only USD1,400.

Before you can run the MCS model, you need to download first the Monte Carlo Simulation add-in and run it before running the MCS model:

MonteCarlito_v1_10

The models for renewable, conventional, fossil, nuclear, energy storage, and combined heat and power (CHP) project finance models are based on a single template so that you can prioritize which power generation technology to apply in a given application for more detailed design and economic study.

The models below are in Philippine Pesos (PHP) and may be converted to any foreign currency by inputting the appropriate exchange rate (e.g. 1 USD = 1.0000 USD; 1 USD = 50.000 PHP, 1 USD = 3.800 MYR, etc.). Then do a global replacement in all worksheets of ‘PHP’ with ‘XXX’, where ‘XXX’ is the foreign currency of the model.

RENEWABLE ENERGY

process heat (steam) and power

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-cogeneration-project-finance-model-ver-3/

bagasse, rice husk or wood waste fired boiler steam turbine generator

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-direct-combustion-project-finance-model-ver-3/

gasification (thermal conversion in high temperature without oxygen or air)

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-gasification-project-finance-model-ver-3/

integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-igcc-project-finance-model-ver-3/

waste-to-energy (WTE) technology for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal and treatment

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-waste-to-energy-wte-project-finance-model-ver-3-2/

waste-to-energy (WTE) pyrolysis technology

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-biomass-waste-to-energy-wte-pyrolysis-project-finance-model-ver-3/

run-of-river (mini-hydro) power plant

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-mini-hydro-run-of-river-project-finance-model-ver-3/

concentrating solar power (CSP) 400 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-concentrating-solar-power-csp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

solar PV technology 1 MW Chinese

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-solar-photo-voltaic-pv-project-finance-model-ver-3-1-mw/

solar PV technology 25 MW European and Non-Chinese (Korean, Japanese, US)

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-solar-photo-voltaic-pv-project-finance-model-ver-3-25-mw/

includes 81 wind turbine power curves from onshore WTG manufacturers

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-onshore-wind-energy-project-finance-model-ver-3-copy/

includes 81 wind turbine power curves from offshore WTG manufacturers

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-offshore-wind-project-finance-model-ver-3/

ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 10 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-ocean-thermal-energy-conversion-otec-10-mw-project-finance-model-ver-3/

ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 50 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-ocean-thermal-energy-conversion-otec-project-finance-model-ver-3-50-mw/

CONVENTIONAL, FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

geothermal power plant 100 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-geo-thermal-project-finance-model-ver-3/

large hydro power plant 500 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-large-hydro-impoundment-project-finance-model-ver-3/

subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-coal-fired-circulating-fluidized-cfb-project-finance-model-ver-3-50-mw/

subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 135 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-coal-fired-circulating-fluidized-bed-cfb-project-finance-model-ver-3-135-mw/

subcritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 400 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-pulverized-coal-pc-subcritical-project-finance-model-ver-3/

supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 500 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-pulverized-coal-pc-supercritical-project-finance-model-ver-3/

ultra-supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 650 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-pulverized-coal-pc-ultrasupercritical-project-finance-model-ver-3/

diesel-fueled genset (compression ignition engine) technology 50 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-diesel-genset-project-finance-model-ver-3-copy/

fuel oil (bunker oil) fired genset (compression ignition engine) technology 100 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-fuel-oil-genset-project-finance-model-ver-3-copy-2/

fuel oil (bunker oil) fired oil thermal technology 600 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-fuel-oil-thermal-project-finance-model-ver-3/

natural gas combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) 500 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-natgas-fired-combined-cycle-gas-turbine-ccgt-project-finance-model-ver-3/

natural gas simple cycle (open cycle) gas turbine (OCGT) 70 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-natgas-fired-open-cycle-gas-turbine-ocgt-project-finance-model-ver-3/

natural gas thermal 200 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-natgas-fired-thermal-project-finance-model-ver-3/

petroleum coke (petcoke) fired subcritical thermal 220 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-petcoke-thermal-power-plant-project-finance-model-ver-3/

nuclear (uranium) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) technology 1330 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-nuclear-power-phwr-project-finance-model-ver-3/

WASTE HEAT RECOVERY BOILER (DIESEL genset; GASOLINE genset; PROPANE, LPG or NATURAL GAS simple cycle)

combined heat and power (CHP) circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-coal-fired-cfb-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

diesel genset (diesel, gas oil) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-diesel-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

fuel oil (bunker) genset and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-bunker-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

gasoline genset (gasoline, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-gasoline-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

simple cycle GT (propane, LPG) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-lpg-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

simple cycle GT (natural gas, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/advanced-natgas-fired-genset-combined-heat-and-power-chp-project-finance-model-ver-3/

Cheers,

Your energy technology selection and project finance modeling expert

 

Complete List of Deterministic and Stochastic Project Finance Models

January 5th, 2018 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Complete List of Deterministic (fixed inputs) and Stochastic (random inputs) Project Finance Models

=============================================

NEWS FLASH JUST NOW.

YOU CAN NOW ORDER AND PURCHASE DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC (MCS) PROJECT FINANCE MODELS IN UNITED STATES DOLLAR (USD).

HERE ARE SOME EXAMPLE DEMO (LOCKED) MODELS:

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo) – in PHP

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo) – in PHP

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo) – in PHP

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo) (USD)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) – in PHP

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo) (USD)

FOR OTHER POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES, YOU MAY ORDER AND PURCHASE BY EMAIL AT:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

AND SPECIFY YOUR TYPE OF MODEL. YOU MAY ALSO INCLUDE IN YOUR EMAIL YOUR SAMPLE INPUTS SO I CAN IMMEDIATELY CUSTOMIZE YOUR MODEL FOR FREE.

=============================================

Your energy technology selection expert is pleased to announce that deterministic (fixed inputs) and stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) are now available for all power generation technologies (renewable energy such as biomass, solar PV and CSP, wind, mini-hydro, ocean thermal and ocean tidal/current, and conventional energy such as large hydro, geothermal, and fossil energy such as oil diesel and oil thermal, natural gas simple cycle and combined cycle, coal thermal and clean coal technologies, nuclear energy, and energy storage and waste heat recovery and combined heat and power technologies).

You may download the following samples to try the advanced features of using fixed inputs and random inputs in order to manage your project risks:

Deterministic (fixed inputs) model: (USD 700):

Stochastic (random inputs from Monte Carlo Simulation) model (USD 1400):

Before you can run the MCS model, you need to download first the Monte Carlo Simulation add-in and run it before running the MCS model:

MonteCarlito_v1_10

Here is the complete list of deterministic and stochastic project finance models.

RENEWABLE ENERGY

1) process heat (steam) and power (cogeneration)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3_MCS (demo)

2) bagasse, rice husk or wood waste fired boiler steam turbine generator

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3_MCS (demo)

3) gasification (thermal conversion in high temperature without oxygen or air

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3_MCS (demo)

4) integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3_MCS (demo)

5) waste-to-energy (WTE) technology for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal and treatment

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3_MCS (demo)

6) waste-to-energy (WTE) pyrolysis technology

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis (demo)

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis_MCS (demo)

7) run-of-river (mini-hydro) power plant

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA (demo)

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3_NIA_MCS (demo)

8) concentrating solar power (CSP) 400 MW

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 (demo)

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3_MCS (demo)

9) solar PV technology 1 MW Chinese

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3 (demo)

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3_MCS (demo)

10) solar PV technology 25 MW European and Non-Chinese (Korean, Japanese, US)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 (demo)

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3_MCS (demo)

11) includes 81 wind turbine power curves from onshore WTG manufacturers

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 (demo)

ADV Wind Onshore Model3_MCS (demo)

12) includes 81 wind turbine power curves from offshore WTG manufacturers

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 (demo)

ADV Wind Offshore Model3_MCS (demo)

13) ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 10 MW

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW_MCS (demo)

14) ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 50 MW

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo)

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo)

14) ocean current and tidal technology (30 MW) – this is a similar to an air wind turbine but under water with a turbine propeller (Taiwan has an operating prototype in Kuroshio and PNOC-EC is venturing into ocean current at the Tablas Strait).

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW (demo)

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW_MCS (demo)

 

CONVENTIONAL, FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

1) geothermal power plant 100 MW

ADV Geo Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Geo Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

2) large hydro power plant 500 MW

ADV Large Hydro Model3 (demo)

ADV Large Hydro Model3_MCS (demo)

3) subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW_MCS (demo)

4) subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 135 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW_MCS (demo)

5) subcritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 400 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

6) supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 500 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

7) ultra-supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 650 MW

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

8) diesel-fueled genset (compression ignition engine) technology 50 MW

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 (demo)

ADV Diesel Genset Model3_MCS (demo)

9) fuel oil (bunker oil) fired genset (compression ignition engine) technology 100 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3_MCS (demo)

10) fuel oil (bunker oil) fired oil thermal technology 600 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

11) natural gas combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) 500 MW

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3_MCS (demo)

12) natural gas simple cycle (open cycle) gas turbine (OCGT) 70 MW

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3_MCS (demo)

13) natural gas thermal 200 MW

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

14) petroleum coke (petcoke) fired subcritical thermal 220 MW

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 (demo)

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3_MCS (demo)

15) nuclear (uranium) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) technology 1330 MW

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 (demo)

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3_MCS (demo)

 

WASTE HEAT RECOVERY BOILER (DIESEL genset; GASOLINE genset; PROPANE, LPG or NATURAL GAS simple cycle)

1) combined heat and power (CHP) circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW CHP (demo)

2) diesel genset (diesel, gas oil) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Diesel Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

3) fuel oil (bunker) genset and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Fuel Oil Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

4) gasoline genset (gasoline, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

ADV Gasoline Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

5) simple cycle GT (propane, LPG) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

ADV Propane Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

6) simple cycle GT (natural gas, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

ADV Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 (demo)

 

A simple user manual on how to use the deterministic and stochastic project finance models and user license information are found in the files below:

_How to run the Advanced Project Finance Models of OMT (ver 2)

_DISCLAIMER, CONTACT INFORMATION, PAYMENT DETAILS and NON-DISCLOSURE

Our company (OMT Energy Enterprises) can also provide customization services to provide you with power plant project finance models with fixed inputs (deterministic models) as well as random inputs (stochastic models).

If you have an existing model which you want to be audited or upgraded to have stochastic modeling capability, you may also avail of our services at an hourly rate of USD200 per hour for a maximum of 5 hours of charge for customization services.

Use the deterministic model to determine project feasibility, e.g. given first year tariff, determine the equity and project returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK), or given the equity or project target returns, determine the first year tariff.

Use the stochastic model to determine project risks during the project development stage. By varying the estimation error on the independent variable (+10% and -10%) and conducting 1,000 random trials, this model will show the upper limit of the estimation error so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value (no error).

A pre-feasibility study has a +/- 15-20% estimation error on the independent variables using rule-of-thumb values.

A detailed feasibility study has a +/- 10-15% estimation error on the independent variables using reasonable estimates guided by internet research on suppliers of equipment.

A final bankable feasibility study has a +/- 5-10% estimation error on the independent variables using EPC contractor and OEM supplier bids.

In the case of fuel oil (bunker) genset, for instance, the estimation error on the independent variables should be less than +3% and -3% so that the dependent variables will converge to a real value.

The model inputs consist of the fixed inputs (independent variables) plus a random component as shown below (based on +/- 10% range, which you can edit in the Sensitivity worksheet):

1) Plant availability factor (% of time) = 94.52% x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

2) Fuel heating value (GHV) = 5,198 Btu/lb x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

3) Plant capacity per unit = 12.00 MW/unit x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

4) Variable O&M cost (at 5.26 $/MWh) = 30.05 $000/MW/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

5) Fixed O&M cost (at 105.63 $/kW/year) = 1,227.64 $000/unit/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

6) Fixed G&A cost = 10.00 $000/year x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

7) Cost of fuel = 1.299 PHP/kg x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

8) Plant heat rate = 12,186 Btu/kWh x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

9) Exchange rate = 43.00 PHP/USD x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

10) Capital cost = 1,935 $/kW x ( 90% + (110% – 90%) * RAND() )

The dependent variables that will be simulated using Monte Carlo Simulation and which a distribution curve (when you make bold font the number of random trials) may be generated are as follows:

1) Equity Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 30% equity, 70% debt

2) Project Returns (NPV, IRR, PAYBACK) at 100% equity, 0% debt

3) Net Profit After Tax

4) Pre-Tax WACC

5) Electricity Tariff (Feed-in-Tariff)

The models are in Philippine Pesos (PHP) and may be converted to any foreign currency by inputting the appropriate exchange rate (e.g. 1 USD = 1.0000 USD; 1 USD = 50.000 PHP, 1 USD = 3.800 MYR, etc.). Then do a global replacement in all worksheets of ‘PHP’ with ‘XXX’, where ‘XXX’ is the foreign currency of the model.

 

To purchase, email me at:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

 

You may pay using PayPal:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

or via bank/wire transfer:

====================

1) Name of Bank Branch & Address:

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)

Pasig Ortigas Branch

G/F Benpres Building, Exchange Road corner Meralco Avenue

Ortigas Center, PASIG CITY 1605

METRO MANILA, PHILIPPINES

2) Account Name:

Marcial T. Ocampo

3) Account Number:

Current Account = 0205-5062-41

4) SWIFT ID Number = BOPIPHMM

====================

Once I confirm with PayPal or with my BPI current account that the payment has been made, I will then email you the real (un-locked) model to replace the demo model you have downloaded.

Hurry and order now, this offer is only good until January 31, 2018.

Regards,

Your Energy Technology Selection and Project Finance Expert

 

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) nuclear PHWR power plant project finance model

July 26th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) nuclear PHWR power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a nuclear PHWR (pressurized hot water reactor) power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a nuclear PHWR power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into nuclear PHWR power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 5,530 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 3,256 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 15th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 93.28 $/kW/year (target cost) = 111,436.79 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 2.14 $/MWh (target cost) = 10.88 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 370.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of nuclear fuel = 1,676,708,808 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 10,268 Btu/kWh (33.23% thermal efficiency of steam cycle)

Energy content of nuclear fuel = 3,900 GJ/kg

Electricity generation per kg = 360,000 kWh/kg

Cost of nuclear fuel = 365 (fuel) + 400 (fabrication) = 765 $/kg = 765,000 $/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 1,330.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 1,330.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    96.67% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                     98.00% (assumed)

allowance for losses & own use, %                       5.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    90.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.5%

 

construction period = 60 months (start 2014)

operating period = 30 years (start 2019)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   50.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $248.52 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $2,594.07 11.4%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 21.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 1.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $40.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $786.21 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $181.82 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 1.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 15.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 48.7%

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $249
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $4,329,885
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $40
   Sub-Station Facility $786
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $765,110
   Construction Contingency $199,215
   Value Added Tax $379,079
   Financing Costs $1,203,247
   Initial Working Capital $477,586
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $7,355,197
                                 – PhP 000 369,945,067
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $5,148,638
   Equity $2,206,559
Total Sources of Fund $7,355,197

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 49 %

Foreign Capital = 51 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment: (fossil fuel)

Customs duty = 3%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 0% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (49% local, 51% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Weighted Average Cost of Capital:

WACC = 10.48% p.a.

WACC pre-tax = 11.98% p.a.

WACC after-tax = 8.38% p.a.

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 7.59514 P/kWh = 0.15101 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC):

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel        32,825,596 0.11251
Lubes            338,460 0.00116
Var O&M        32,718,776 0.11214
Total        65,882,832 0.22581
MWh net      291,765,159
SRMC        65,882,832 0.22581
Fix O&M      301,344,116 1.03283
Capital Cost    1,848,769,523 6.33650
LRMC    2,215,996,471 7.59514

SRMC = 0.22581 PHP/kWh (variable O&M + fuel + lubes)

LRMC = 7.59514 PHP/kWh (capital cost + fixed O&M + regulatory + SRMC)

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00     ‘000$

PAYBACK = 8.68 years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 10.96          % p.a.

NPV        = (58,478,322)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 6.73           years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Nuclear PHWR

 

Download the complete demo model for a nuclear PHWR power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 – demo5b

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 (USD) – demo5b

If you have actual data from your OEM and EPC suppliers, kindly share the data with me or simply enter your live data into the above models and see how the results will change immediately before your eyes. Please email me back the updated demo model with your new data so you may share it will all our readers of this blog.

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

Nuclear 1330 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

When Nuclear Energy is not viable or applicable

June 28th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in power generation

When Nuclear Energy is not viable or applicable

The alternative to large-scale nuclear power is to use ocean energy – from waves, thermal gradients and ocean currents – and tidal currents due to changes in sea elevation resulting from gravitational forces of the moon and sun on the earth’s surface. Ocean and tidal currents are predictable unlike intermittent renewable solar PV, solar CSP, wind and to some extent mini-hydro which depends on rainfall. Stored biomass and waste-to-energy systems (gasification, pyrolysis) may provide dispatcheable power to act as baseload, together with predictable ocean and tidal currents – is the key to a reliable and stable electricity grid in the future.

But we still need other conventional and fossil energy sources such as oil, coal, natural gas, geothermal, hydro, simple and combined cycle gas turbines running on liquid and gaseous fuels to provide additional base load and mid-merit load, as well as high-speed peaking load plants to stabilize the electrical network.

I will soon start a mini-series on power generation technologies and present the description, theory, history, capital cost and operating cost, emissions, environmental impacts, benefits and risks of each technology.

From this information, I will then present a template project finance model for each technology to illustrate its economic viability and how it could compete in the electricity grid and thus dispatched to meet its revenue requirements to repay both equity and debt investors.

By using these template models to compute the short run marginal cost (SRMC = variable O&M cost + fuel cost + lube oil cost) and long run marginal cost (LRMC = annualized capital cost + fixed O&M + regulatory cost + SRMC), the energy & power planner can stack up the dependable power generation capacities from the cheapest to the most expensive SRMC or LRMC. The power technologies or power plants in the stack up to the power demand of the grid then gets dispatched and this is how we can ensure that dispatched power is the cheapest cost possible while meeting power demand.

Cheers

Email me to register to this mini-series. First come first serve.

energydataexpert@gmail.com

 

Get my project finance models – renewable, coal, conventional and waste heat recovery

June 27th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Get my project finance models – renewable, coal, conventional and waste heat recovery

Yes, get any of the 4 groups of project finance models this week until July 15, 2017.

Please see the demo models below and email me ASAP which group you want and what currency you want the model (e.g. PHP, USD, EUR, GBP, CNY, JPY, AUS, and all Asian, Oceana, Middle East, African, European, North American and Latin American currencies).

Group 1 – Renewable Energy (USD 1,000) Technologies – all models:

ADV Biomass Cogeneration Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass Direct Combustion Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass Gasification Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass IGCC Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – demo5b

ADV Biomass WTE Model3 – pyrolysis – demo5b

ADV Mini-Hydro Model3 – demo5b

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_10 MW – demo5b

ADV Ocean Thermal Model3_50 MW – demo5b

ADV Tidal Current Model3_30 MW (INR) – demo5b

ADV Solar PV 1 mw Model3 – demo5b

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 – demo5b

ADV Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Model3 – demo5b

ADV Wind Offshore Model3 – demo5b

ADV Wind Onshore Model3 – demo5b

To avail of the Group 1 (renewables) package, click on the link below or paste to your browser:

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/group-1-renewable-energy-biomass-solar-wind-mini-hydro-ocean-tidal/

Group 2 – Clean Coal Technologies (USD 1,000) all models:

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_135 MW – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

To avail of the Group 2 (pulverized coal, clean coal CFB) package, click the link below or paste to your browser:

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/group-2-coal-technologies-pulverized-clean-coal-cfb/

Group 3 – Conventional & Fossil Technologies (USD 1,000) all models:

ADV Diesel Genset Model3 – demo5b

ADV Fuel Oil Genset Model3 – demo5b

ADV Fuel Oil Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Geo Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Large Hydro Model3 – demo5b

ADV Natgas Combined Cycle Model3 – demo5b

ADV Natgas Simple Cycle Model3 – demo5b

ADV Natgas Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Petcoke-Fired PC Subcritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Nuclear PHWR Model3 – demo5b

To avail of the Group 3 (conventional, fossil, nuclear and petcoke) package, click the link below or paste to your browser:

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/group-3-conventional-fossil-nuclear-oil-coal-gas-geo-nuclear-petcoke/

Group 4 – Combined Heat & Power (CHP) and Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) Systems (USD 1,000) – all models:

ADV Coal-Fired CFB Thermal Model3_50 MW CHP – demo5b

ADV Diesel Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

ADV Fuel Oil Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

ADV Gasoline Genset and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

ADV Propane Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

ADV Simple Cycle and Waste Heat Boiler Model3 – demo5b

To avail of the Group 4 (combined heat & power, waste heat recovery boiler) package, click the link below or paste to your browser:

http://energydataexpert.com/shop/power-generation-technologies/group-4-combined-heat-power-chp-and-waste-heat-recovery-boiler/

Download any of the above models to see its capabilities and ease of using.

Regards,

Your energy technology selection expert and project finance modeling expert

Email me for more details:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit us:

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

A Generic Strategy for Reducing Electricity Cost, Environmental Impact, and Promote Inclusive Economic Growth in Communities Hosting Energy & Power Industries

June 21st, 2017 No Comments   Posted in power generation

A Generic Strategy for Reducing Electricity Cost, Environmental Impact, and Promoting Inclusive Economic Growth in Communities Hosting Energy & Power Industries

Marcial Ocampo has a lifetime dream and advocacy: to help the country (Philippines) reduce its energy & power costs and consumption by optimizing the capacity and generation mix, reduce oil and energy imports by promoting indigenous resources, reduce the environmental impact footprint of power plants, and promote inclusive economic growth especially for the marginalized communities hosting the power plants and sources of fuels or energy.

Among the generic measures he proposes that can be applied to any country, especially countries with renewable energy sources, are as follows:

1) Use of advanced mixed integer linear programming (MILP) optimization software to process existing power plant data on capacity, efficiency or heat rate, availability and reliability, capital & operating costs, fuel costs & heating value, ramp-up and ramp-down rates and environmental emissions to optimize short-term and long-term capacity and generation mix, in order to achieve cheapest short-run generation cost (SRMC) and least cost long-run capacity expansion (LRMC).

2) Improve the quality of power generation (reliability, availability, frequency, load-following, backup reserves) in the country by having an optimal mix that balances the need for intermittent renewable energy for sustainable growth that also requires high-speed fossil generation to backup such intermittent technologies such as when the sun and wind becomes unavailable momentarily and stabilize the electrical network.

3) Make use of all municipal solid wastes (MSW), liquid and gaseous wastes (bio-gas and land-fill gas) to provide distributed power generation and process heat throughout the country in order to address waste collection, treatment, storage, sanitation and disposal problems. Not all cities and municipalities have access to geologic sites like gullies that can support environmentally sanitary landfills, so it is important that groups of cities and municipalities pool their resources to have a common and centrally located waste-to-energy system (gasification, pyrolysis) power plant utilizing MSW and biological wastes in order to reduce the size of MSW and its treatment residues.

4) Make use of all indigenous energy and fuel resources in the country in order to conserve precious foreign exchange (to purchase petroleum fuels, coal), utilize local coal and natural gas reserves, use carbon-neutral biomass from trees and shrubs to provide fuel pellets to co-fire boilers using oil and coal and thus initiate a gradual shift from fossil to renewable biomass power generation. I believe that anti-coal environmental advocates should take a second and favorable look into indigenous coal since later on, as the world runs out of fossil fuel, the country needs them for power and fuel security. Coal is a transition fuel as the world converts from oil products to renewable energy and delays the depletion of crude oil. It would be a crime in the future to burn oil products as fuel since scarce oil is more needed for lubrication of industrial and transport machineries and manufacture of pharmaceuticals and other chemicals.

5) Make use of available renewable energy such as biomass, waste-to-energy, solar PV, solar CSP, wind, mini-hydro and ocean energy provided by waves, thermal gradients, ocean currents and tidal flows due to the gravitational effects of the moon and sun on the earth’s surface that give rise to ocean currents or tidal currents in the vast oceans of the world. Estimates of 1.0 – 2.5 meters per second of ocean and tidal currents are found in the coastal vicinities of Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and Philippines. Ocean currents are predictable and nearly constant as against intermittent solar and wind.

6) To utilize off-peak renewable energy to store energy in elevated dams or barriers, for future release using water turbines when peak energy and power is required. Energy may be stored as potential energy or as chemical energy in the form of Hydrogen gas from electrolysis of water using off-peak electricity and extracted in thermal plants or in fuel cells.

7) Let us integrate renewable energy in the design of our civil and transport infrastructures like putting solar PV and small-scale wind turbines in long-span bridges and dams, or putting ocean and tidal current water turbines under bridges or barrages that connects islands between straits, or when lakes or large marsh lands are surrounded with elevated highways that serves as flood control structures and provided with low-head water turbines to capture the energy of the released flood waters, just like in conventional large impoundment dams. This is one way of reducing the cost of the renewable energy by integrating them in the design and construction of public infrastructures. Building Integrated Photo Voltaic (BIPV) solar panels and rooftop-mounted solar heaters are now used in commercial buildings like malls, hotels and residential buildings to provide electricity and hot water.

8) Lastly, to reduce power costs drastically, adopt mine-mouth clean coal power generation technology (e.g. CFB). By using the low-BTU lignite coal reserves spread throughout the Philippine archipelago, which is economical only to use in mine-mouth configuration due to its low BTU, high moisture, high ash content, but low in sulfur and the mine adjacent to nearby limestone deposits, we can bring down further the electricity cost from base-load coal-fired power plants as it saves on the cost of logistics – hauling coal and barging or shipping costs – which are significant cost items. By integrating mine-mouth coal power plant with co-firing with biomass wood pellets coming from mature rubber trees and other fast-growing trees, the country can provide cheaper power without harming the environment and provide local job opportunities to coal miners and workers of tree plantations near the mine-mouth coal power plant. Planting rubber trees provide an immediate income stream to support the rural tree farm workers during the early life of the tree and once it become old and un-productive, it can be sold as wood pellets to the mine-mouth coal-fired power plant. Once the coal reserves are depleted or uneconomical to extract, the power plant becomes a renewable biomass wood chips and pellet power plant.

I am available for new endeavors this coming August 1, 2017.

I am hoping you would find time to communicate with me and discuss my ideas further.

Yours truly,

Marcial T. Ocampo

+63-9156067949 (GLOBE mobile)

+63-2-9313713 (PLDT home landline)

mars_ocampo@yahoo.com (email)

energydataexpert@gmail.com (email)

 

The Alternatives to Nuclear Power and Expensive Renewable Energy Technologies

September 8th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation, Uncategorized

The Alternatives to Nuclear Power and Expensive Renewable Energy Technologies

Talks about using nuclear energy and reviving the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) and to use rapidly getting cheaper renewable energy such as solar PV and wind are all long-shots in making Philippine electricity cheaper and more reliable.

What the country needs are safe, indigenous and base load power plants.

The nuclear option is a long-way to go as the country needs to develop and upgrade its nuclear regulatory framework (our Philippine Atomic Energy Commission is a research agency, not a nuclear regulator), the BNPP has to be technically, environmentally, geologically and economically studied to see if it is safe, its components are still in good working order or needs to be replaced and upgraded, the country is equipped to handle any nuclear mishaps, accidents, terrorist attacks, and the additional $1 billion to upgrade and make operational and cost of nuclear fuel rods will still allow BNPP to make electricity below grid rate of 5-6 P/kWh. We can’t reduce power costs unless we introduce power plants that are cheaper to build, more efficient to run, environmentally and geologically compliant, and have secure and cheaper sources of fuels. More »

Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Technologies – a Quick Guide to Energy Articles and Financial Modeling

July 9th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Technologies – a mini-lecture series with power point presentation and excel project finance models

Your energy technology selection expert is beginning a lecture series on power generation and fuel cycle technologies. This will involve a discussion on the principles of the technology, its history, capital and operating costs, benefits and risks.

Objectives

1) To provide the participants a basic understanding of the following commercially available:

– fuel cycle technologies

– power generation technologies, and

– energy storage technologies

2) To know the basic principles, costs, environmental impact, risks and applicability of each of these technologies, and

3) To present the technology roadmap of each of these technologies to guide us in the near term (next 20 years – up to 2020) and in the long term (next 50 years – up to 2050)

The Past

o Introduction – what-is-electricity

o How is Electricity Generated – generation-of-electricity

o History of Power Generation – history-of-power-generation

o The Complete Electric Power System (base load, intermediate & peaking loads)

The Present

o Commercially Available Fuel Technologies, Power Generation Technologies, and Energy Storage Technologies –

commercially-available-fuel-cycle-technologies

o Primary Energy Sources – primary-energy-sources

o Fuel Properties – fuel-properties

o For the commercially available technologies:

– Basic Principles

– Costs

– Environmental Impact

– Associated Risks

– Applicability

COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES:

The Future

o The Technology Roadmap: Vision, Portfolio, Approach, Global Drivers of Change, Cost of Not Yet Commercially Available Tech –

technology-roadmap

o The Near Term Fuel, Power Generation, and Energy Storage Technologies (up to 2020) –

near-term-energy-sources

o The Long Fuel, Power Generation, and Energy Storage Technologies (up to 2050) –

long-term-energy-sources

=========

The project finance models of the power generation technology selection expert are based on one model template; hence, the results are unique for the technology’s capital and operating costs, fuel properties and costs, energy conversion efficiency or heat rate, and energy resource availability and reliability.

The financial models are denominated in Philippine Pesos (PhP 47.00 = USD). You can easily convert to your own local currency by changing the base and forward fixed exchange rate (e.g. XXX 100.00 = USD, USD 1.00 = USD) and do a global replacement of all PhP with XXX currency.

SAMPLE PROJECT FINANCE MODELS:

Sample Project Finance Model

Here is a sample project finance model for a biomass thermal power plant that can be customized for your specific need: (Advanced regulator model)

adv-biomass-direct-combustion-model4-demo9

The same model above is also presented in just one worksheet (tab) so you would be able to understand better the structure of a project finance model: (OMT Energy Enterprises model)

omt-biomass-direct-combustion-model4-demo9

A sample non-thermal power plant (no fuel GHV and no fuel cost) can also be downloaded:

adv-mini-hydro-model3-demo5

A sample liquid fossil thermal power plant (with fuel GHV, fuel density and fuel cost) is also available:

adv-diesel-genset-model3-demo5

Email me if you need customization:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

You may order on-line any project finance model of any renewable, conventional, fossil, nuclear, combined heat and power, and energy storage power generation technologies by visiting this website:

www.energydataexpert.com

Or please visit this blog for any power generation technology article:

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

Regards,

The energy technology expert and financial modeling expert

=======

SAMPLE PROJECT FINANCE MODELS:

RENEWABLE ENERGY

adv-biomass-cogeneration-model3-demo5 – process heat (steam) and power

adv-biomass-direct-combustion-model3-demo5 – bagasse, rice husk or wood waste fired boiler steam turbine generator

adv-biomass-gasification-model3-demo5 – gasification (thermal conversion in high temperature without oxygen or air, pyrolysis)

adv-biomass-igcc-model3-demo5 – integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology

adv-biomass-wte-model3-demo5 – waste-to-energy (WTE) technology for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal and treatment

adv-biomass-wte-model3-pyrolysis-demo5 – waste-to-energy (WTE) pyrolysis technology

adv-mini-hydro-model3-demo5 – run-of-river (mini-hydro) power plant

adv-concentrating-solar-power-csp-model3-demo5 – concentrating solar power (CSP) 400 MW

adv-solar-pv-1-mw-model3-demo5 – solar PV technology 1 MW Chinese

adv-solar-pv-25-mw-model3-demo5 – solar PV technology 25 MW European and Non-Chinese (Korean, Japanese, US)

adv-wind-onshore-model3-demo5 – includes 81 wind turbine power curves from onshore WTG manufacturers

adv-wind-offshore-model3-demo5 – includes 81 wind turbine power curves from  offshore WTG manufacturers

adv-ocean-thermal-model3_10-mw-demo5 – ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 10 MW

adv-ocean-thermal-model3_50-mw-demo5 – ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technology 50 MW

CONVENTIONAL, FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

adv-geo-thermal-model3-demo5 – geothermal power plant  100 MW

adv-large-hydro-model3-demo5 – large hydro power plant 500 MW

adv-coal-fired-cfb-thermal-model3_50-mw-demo5 – subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

adv-coal-fired-cfb-thermal-model3_135-mw-demo5 – subcritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 135 MW

adv-coal-fired-pc-subcritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – subcritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 400 MW

adv-coal-fired-pc-supercritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – supercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 500 MW

adv-coal-fired-pc-ultrasupercritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – ultrasupercritical pulverized coal (PC) technology 650 MW

adv-diesel-genset-model3-demo5 – diesel-fueled genset (compression ignition engine) technology 50 MW

adv-fuel-oil-genset-model3-demo5 – fuel oil (bunker oil) fired genset (compression ignition engine) technology 100 MW

adv-fuel-oil-thermal-model3-demo5 – fuel oil (bunker oil) fired oil thermal technology 600 MW

adv-natgas-combined-cycle-model3-demo5 – natural gas combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) 500 MW

adv-natgas-simple-cycle-model3-demo5 – natural gas simple cycle (open cycle) gas turbine (OCGT) 70 MW

adv-natgas-thermal-model3-demo5 – natural gas thermal 200 MW

adv-petcoke-fired-pc-subcritical-thermal-model3-demo5 – petroleum coke (petcoke) fired subcritical thermal 220 MW

adv-nuclear-phwr-model3-demo5 – nuclear (uranium) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) technology 1330 MW

WASTE HEAT RECOVERY BOILER (DIESEL genset; GASOLINE genset; PROPANE, LPG or NATURAL GAS simple cycle)

adv-coal-fired-cfb-thermal-model3_50-mw-chp-demo5 – combined heat and power (CHP)  circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology 50 MW

adv-diesel-genset-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – diesel genset (diesel, gas oil) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

adv-fuel-oil-genset-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – fuel oil (bunker) genset and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

adv-gasoline-genset-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – gasoline genset (gasoline, land fill gas) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW

adv-propane-simple-cycle-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – simple cycle GT (propane) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

adv-simple-cycle-and-waste-heat-boiler-model3-demo5 – simple cycle GT (natural gas, land fill gas, LPG) and waste heat recovery boiler 3 MW (e.g. Capstone)

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Should you need the actual models (not demo) that could be revised for your own needs (additional revenue streams, additional expense accounts, additional balance sheet accounts, etc.), you may:

Email me:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit me:

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

THANK YOU

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How to run the Advanced Project Finance Models from OMT (Renewable Energy and Non-RE)

June 24th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in project finance models

How to run the Advanced Project Finance Models from OMT (Renewable Energy and Non-RE)

Your energy and power expert and consultant on project development and project finance modeling has prepared a short guide for running the demo versions that are available by clicking on the links in some of the articles in this blog and profile.

FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS: More »

Nuclear Energy Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Nuclear Energy Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for a nuclear power generation technology. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Nuclear Energy stored on the earth’s crust during its creation, and its extraction and concentration using various methods such as chemical extraction and centrifuging has provided a great transition fuel for mankind as the world bids time to shift form fossil fuels that have limited life times (e.g. oil to be exhausted in 60 years, natural gas also in the same life time as oil, and coal to be consumed in 250 years) to unlimited renewable energy from the sun (solar PV, solar thermal, hydro, pumped storage, wind, ocean thermal, wave energy). The use of nuclear power has provided many countries with a cheap source of energy and power, though a number of safety issues and actual nuclear mishaps has occurred, notable of which is the Chernobyl in USSR and Fukushima in Japan.

More »

Project Finance Models – Model Structure

July 31st, 2012 2 Comments   Posted in financial models

Project Finance Models – Model Structure

Don’t waste time developing your model from scratch.

Purchase now our state-of-the-art project finance models for both conventional, fossil, nuclear and renewable energy power generation technologies.

More »

Get Your Energy Technology Articles the Easy Way – Shopping Cart

June 19th, 2012 No Comments   Posted in energy technology expert

Get Your Energy Technology Articles the Easy Way – Shopping Cart

You can now order on-line your energy technology articles the easy way – via the Shopping Cart.

Once you have decided to purchase, proceed to order via the shopping cart and pay thru PayPal thru your bank account or your credit card and download immediately the models. More »

50% Discount on all Project Finance Models this Christmas extended till 28 Feb 2015

November 8th, 2011 No Comments   Posted in financial models

50% Discount on all Project Finance Models this Christmas extended till  28 Feb 2015

DUE TO THE TREMENDOUS RESPONSE AND INTEREST, YOUR ENERGY TECHNOLOGY EXPERT IS EXTENDING THE DISCOUNT TO JANUARY 8, 2012 WITH A HEFTY 50% DISCOUNT (PAY ONLY 50% OF ORIGINAL LIST PRICE).

Enjoy a 50% discount on all my project finance models for calculating first year tariff, feed-in tariff and project or equity IRR, NPV and payback.

Yes, jumpstart your energy technology selection and business development consultancy this coming year of 2012. Start earning good income just like I did this 2011. Augment your fixed income by going into energy and power industry consultancy. More »

New Product List for Models – Levelized Cost of Power and Energy, Feed-in-Tariff, Project Finance, Renewable Energy Resource Assessment, Optimal Load Dispatch and LP Model for Trigeneration

August 31st, 2011 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

New Product List for Models – Levelized Cost of Power and Energy, Feed-in-Tariff, Project Finance, Renewable Energy Resource Assessment, Optimal Load Dispatch and LP Model for Trigeneration

Order now and try our latest top-of-the-line models for:

1) Cost of power generation technologies (technology, capacity, all-in capital cost per kW, fixed and variable O&M cost, capacity factor, cost of fuel, economic life, construction lead time, levelized cost of energy)

2) Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) rate for renewable energy (biomass, solar PV, wind, mini-hydro, ocean thermal energy conversion) More »

Shopping Cart for my Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Technology Power Pt Presentation and Articles – new price list

August 13th, 2011 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Shopping Cart for my Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Technology Power Pt Presentation and Articles – new price list

Due to the tremendous interest and response from avid readers to this blog, your energy technology selection and business development expert is now automating the order taking, payment and downloading of its various power generation power pt presentable and articles as well as project finance models.

Here is the new price list for my energy data base, power plant emission, feed-in-tariff, renewable energy resource assessment and project finance models for conventional, renewable and nuclear energy.

If you are investing in energy and power generation projects in the Philippines or any other country, please email me so you could outsource to me the gathering of all energy, oil and power consumption, demand and projections to support the market study of your feasibility studies. More »

The Paradigm Shift from Nuclear Energy to Renewable Energy – the Fukushima debacle

April 16th, 2011 4 Comments   Posted in nuclear energy and power

The Paradigm Shift from Nuclear Energy to Renewable Energy – the Fukushima debacle

The recent nuclear meltdown incident in one of the 15th largest nuclear power plant in the world as a result of a sequence of events starting with an Intensity 9.0 earthquake that initiated a 10-15 meter tsunami wave within minutes (leaving little time for safe evacuation in spite of adequate tsunami warning by civil and military authorities) that engulfed as far as 10-20 kilometers inland along the flat lands of northeastern Japan, and in the process destroying buildings, roads, bridges, flinging ships inland and disabling the backup diesel generation system of the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

There are newspaper accounts that the earthquake isolated the Fukushima nuclear power plant from the grid, and with a non-operable backup diesel generation backstopped only by an 8-hour battery pack, the world was indeed very close to a China-syndrome type nuclear power plant meltdown. Only the timely use of seawater pumped using crude methods to cool the reactor core and the spent fuel pool prevented a full meltdown. Up to now, the nuclear power plant operator has not succeeded in stabilizing the cooling water system and has relied on pumping and spraying sea water over the damaged nuclear reactors and exposed spent fuel rod cooling pools, leading to leakage of hot radioactive and contaminated sea water into the sea thru the minute cracks on the reactor building’s damage floors. More »

Improving Nuclear Plant Safety – Lessons Learned from Japan Meltdown

March 18th, 2011 7 Comments   Posted in nuclear energy and power

Improving Nuclear Plant Safety – Lessons Learned from Japan Meltdown

Authorities have tried frantically since last Friday’s earthquake and tsunami to avert an environmental catastrophe at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex in northeastern Japan, 170 miles (270 kilometers) north Tokyo.

I have just read that out of guilt feelings, General Electric (GE) which designed and provided the boiling water reactor (BWR) for the plant is eagerly providing 10 truck mounted diesel generator sets for immediate use and disposal by the plant going into meltdown.

It was also mentioned that the GE design required active cooling of the spent fuel rods as it dissipates decay heat, in contrast to modern design that provides for passive cooling thru convected air currents that does not require power to cool spent fuel rods.

Other news also says the plant operator was too confident of the external grid power supply that it did not need to constantly test and maintain and run the backup diesel gensets since they have an 8-hour battery backup.

All this old design philosophy must now be trashed to the garbage bin and replaced with new designs such as: More »

Road Map for Pres. Obama : Preparing for the future energy economy is the quickest way out of the global financial crisis – low carbon, hydrogen, nuclear and breeder economy

June 29th, 2010 14 Comments   Posted in cost of nuclear power

Road Map for Pres. Obama : Preparing for the future energy economy is the quickest way out of the global financial crisis – low carbon, hydrogen, nuclear and breeder economy

It seems that the stimulus package is not working for the USA.  A simple analysis reveals that it will never work because it is simply perpetuating and delaying the economic correction in the US which the Asian countries have done during the 1996 Asian Financial Crisis – they allowed big corporations to fail and recapitalize on their own accord, with government undertaking painful but necessary economic and fiscal reforms, and government leading the private sector in the right direction of energy efficiency (green homes and green buildings, smart grids, advanced and optimized manufacturing and logistics, optimal load dispatch, higher transport mileage, hybrid and electric vehicles), renewable energy (biomass, mini-hydro, wind, solar, ocean thermal energy conversion or OTEC), alternative fuels (biodiesel, bioethanol) and clean energy technologies (clean coal CFB, IGCC).

All of these initiatives, if undertaken on a global scale, will lead to sustainable development that mitigates global warming and climate change risks.  And sustainable development will always lead to greater customer confidence in the future, leading to willingness on the citizenry to spend their money in new and energy efficient technologies – the necessary ingredients for long-term economic growth.

This is what the US Pres. Obama and the US Congress should provide leadership so that the whole world will follow in unison towards a common goal of eradicating permanently global poverty through sustainable economic development.  Conserving expensive fossil fuels to prolong its economic lifetime while the world gradually shifts to a low-carbon economy is the heart of this paradigm shift. 

This article will explain how it can be done.  Please read on and give me your comments and suggestions, and if possible, email it to US Pres. Obama and the members of the US Congress.

The world’s ever growing population requires that massive energy and power projects be developed to keep pace with the socio-economic needs of the more technologically advanced offsprings of civilization.

Mankind has never seen before the exponential growth of energy demand as technological innovations lead to a more wired and electrically dependent society.

So the current scenario of a high carbon energy diet has raised alarm bells  throughout the world and this is being relentlessly being pursued by no less than former US President Al Gore and the new “Inconvenient Truth”. More »

How to Calculate the Cost Impact of Nuclear Power Addition to the Energy Mix – a Philippine estimate

How to Calculate the Cost Impact of Nuclear Power Addition to the Energy Mix – a Philippine estimate


This is the 4th sequel to the 1st blog on “How to Calculate the Levelized Cost of Energy – a simplified approach”.


Using sample data and reasonable assumptions, I’ve calculated the potential reduction in the weighted average levelized cost of electricity in the energy mix of the Philippines should the mothballed 620 MW Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) be revived and allowed to operate again after being in preservation mode since the early 1990’s. More »

Shall We Go Nuclear?

Shall We Go Nuclear?

Oil Crisis of 2008

The recent oil crisis which saw the rise of crude oil prices to a peak of $147 per barrel in the world market and its attendant effect on raising electricity prices in the Philippines at a rate higher than its competitor economies in the region has brought forth renewed calls to review policies relative to the development of the Philippine Nuclear Industry.

Revive the 600 MW BNPP?

In particular, attention has been directed toward reviving the mothballed 600 MW Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) constructed by the National Power Corporation in the early 1980’s. In its desire to be part of the growing list of nuclear power generation nations in the world, the Philippines implemented a national agenda that included the construction of the 600 MW BNPP in tandem with the 300 MW Kalayaan Pumped Storage Hydro Plant in 1982. The pumped storage would serve as a dummy load of the nuclear plant during off-peak periods at night in order to allow for a constant and stable generation of 600 MW of nuclear power throughout the entire day. (In the absence of the “cheap” nuclear electricity, the Laguna Lake water is pumped uphill to Lake Caliraya at night using geothermal, coal and sometimes expensive oil-based electricity in order to have adequate baseload capacity during day-time peak hours.)

Numerous Issues Hounded the BNPP

Unfortunately, or for reasons only Providence could imagine, the BNPP has been hounded with controversy ranging from allegations of overprice and corruption in the construction of the power plant, unsafe plant location being near an inactive volcano (Mt. Natib), being located near an active fault, possible long-term environmental harm to the nearby residents and Luzon populace in the event of accidental release of radio active gases and materials arising from a nuclear accident, unsafe plant design (pressurized water reactor or PWR), expensive electricity arising from its high cost per kW due to overprice (one 600 MW plant for the cost of two 600 MW plants as originally conceived), and of course, how to economically and safely dispose of the spent nuclear fuel material, radioactive control rods and other materials exposed to high levels of radiation.

More »