New Simplified Calculation Procedure for Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Feed-in Tariff

July 28th, 2010 3 Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

New Simplified Calculation Procedure for Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Feed-in Tariff

As part of the on-going technical preparations for the proposed mini-conference on the Mindanao Power Crisis this coming late August or early September 2010 and the main conference on “Energy & Climate Change”, the workshop coordinator, Mr. Marcial T. Ocampo, has prepared the simplified calculation procedure for calculating the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and levelized selling price (tariff) for conventional and renewable energy resources.

The result of the simplified formulas using the US NREL formula for generation cost and the RP MTO formula for selling price were compared with the results from a full-blown project finance model and the variance between the two methods were minimal in most of the power generation technologies analyzed.

The input data came from the IEPR research summary of 2007 and from internationally published data on power generation technology by noted experts such as Paul Breeze and yours truly, Marcial Ocampo. More »

Marcial Ocampo – Energy Technology Expert – CV and Company Profile

June 24th, 2010 26 Comments   Posted in energy technology expert

PERSONAL INFORMATION:

 

Name :       MARCIAL T. OCAMPO

Email: mars_ocampo@yahoo.com

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Web:   www.energytechnologyexpert.com

http://ph.linkedin.com/in/ocampomarcial

EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND:

Elementary :         Dologon Laboratory School

Musuan, Bukidnon

1958 – 1964

Valedictorian

High School :         San Sebastian College

Claro M. Recto, Manila

1964 – 1968

Salutatorian

College :          B. S. Chemical Engineering

University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City

1968 – 1973

2nd Place (87.75%) – Chemical Engineering Board Exam, 1973

Post Graduate :         M. S. Chemical Engineering

 University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City

Thesis: “The Assimilative Capacity of Some Rivers in the                        Philippines, an LP Model”

1974 – 1978

M. S. Combustion and Energy

 University of Leeds, United Kingdom

Thesis: “The Performance and Emission Characteristics of a Methanol-Fueled Spark Ignition Engine”

1979-1980 More »

How to Optimize Power Plant Design and Configuration (technology, capacity, efficiency, location)

January 11th, 2010 2 Comments   Posted in financial models

How to Optimize Power Plant Design and Configuration (technology, capacity, efficiency, location) – see download file for input data

Optimizing the overall project concept during the plant feasibility study and detailed engineering study is a common problem faced by project developers and EPC contractors.  The question commonly asked by project owners from project developers and designers are:

(1) What engine/manufacturer should be considered (e.g. Siemens, Westinghouse, General Electric, Mitsubishi, Alstom, etc)? More »

How to calculate power plant emissions – solution to problem of a reader

How to calculate power plant emissions – solution to problem of reader

Hi,

Please find on the next page a snippet of my spreadsheet showing the solution.  The model was calibrated to the above municipal solid fuel analysis at 80% excess air firing for combustion of municipal solid waste to meet the given SO2 emission of 15.75 mg/Nm3.

Assuming 26% thermal efficiency and given firing rate of 185,000 metric tons per year of 7018 hours (around 80% capacity factor), your plant must be generating over 52.41 MW of power with 9% plant own use (parasitic load assumed).

The fuel should have a sulfur analysis of 0.57% Sulfur (dry basis) in order to give such emission.

At 31.30% moisture in the wet fuel, this translates to 0.39% Sulfur (wet basis).

Once the sulfur in the wet fuel is known, the problem is solved:

kg SO2 per metric ton fuel (wet) = (0.39 / 100) x (mw of SO2 / mw of S) x (1000 kg / metric ton)

= (0.39 / 100) x (64.0648 / 32.0660) x (1000) = 7.806 kg SO2 per metric ton (tonne) of wet fuel More »

Philippine Renewable Energy News Bulletin 4 – September 19, 2009

September 20th, 2009 18 Comments   Posted in renewable energy

Philippine Renewable Energy News Bulletin 4 – September 19, 2009

The recent passage of the Philippine Renewable Energy (RE) Law and its Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR) now clearly defines the legal and regulatory framework for renewable energy investment in the Philippines.  After almost a long 10 year wait, this important piece of legislation has passed deliberations in both chambers of the Philippine Congress and Senate and was signed into law by President Gloria.

(Please email for IRR – mars_ocampo@yahoo.com or energydataexpert@gmail.com) More »

Philippine Renewable Energy News Bulletin 3 – September 19, 2009

September 20th, 2009 1 Comment   Posted in renewable energy

Philippine Renewable Energy News Bulletin 3 – September 19, 2009

The passage of the Philippine Renewable Energy (RE) Law and its Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR) is expected to promote the development of the renewable energy industry in the Philippines.  After almost a long 10 year wait, this important piece of legislation has passed deliberations in both chambers of the Philippine Congress and Senate and was signed into law by President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

(Please email me for download copy of RE Law – mars_ocampo@yahoo.com or energydataexpert@gmail.com) More »

Sample data for calculating the levelized cost of energy and electricity

SAMPLE DATA FOR CALCULATING THE LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY

Your favorite energy technology expert presents sample data for calculating the levelized cost of energy and electricity which could be applied on the NREL formula or implemented in a detailed project finance model.

The input data are summarized below. More »

How to calculate overall thermal efficiency of combined cycle power plants – a sample CCGT presented

How to calculate overall thermal efficiency of combined cycle power plants – a sample CCGT presented

Calculating or predicting the overall performance of a combined cycle power plant, specifically a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant is sometimes difficult for most design engineers. Your favorite energy technology expert again comes to the rescue – Engineer Marcial T. Ocampo – has derived the following equation to guide the design engineer and project finance modeler or business development engineer in predicting the overall thermal efficiency of the combined cycle. More »

How to calculate the levelized cost of energy – some updates

How to Calculate the Levelized Cost of Energy and Electricity – some updates and developments


The author is re-issuing this article in view of the tremendous interest worldwide on this article.  A number of readers have in fact ordered my technology articles, specifically on the cost of power generation technology (a spreadsheet containing the technology, rated capacity, overnight cost $/kW, capacity factor % of rated capacity, fixed O&M $/kW/year, variable O&M $/kWh, energy conversion efficiency % of fuel energy, fuel cost $/GJ, economic life years, construction lead time years, reliability % of operating hours, availability % of calendar days, and levelized cost $/kWh).


Using the NREL formula and a detailed project finance model, I was able to demonstrate that the results would be the same in calculating the levelized cost of energy or electricity.  The reader is adviced to email me if they would like to get a copy of the spreadsheet showing the two calculations.

With the passage of the Philippine Renewable Energy Act of 2009 (RE Law) and its implementing rules and regulations (IRR), it is imperative that financial models for renewable energy projects be revised accordingly.  This author and our group of experts would assist project proponents and investors in the Philippines develop an updated financial model for evaluating their RE project proposals for endorsement by the Department of Energy (DOE) and for the approval of their feed-in tariffs with the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC). More »

Philippine Renewable Energy News Bulletin 1 & 2 – July 13-14, 2009

July 14th, 2009 2 Comments   Posted in renewable energy

Philippine Renewable Energy News Bulletin 1 – July 13, 2009

Your favorite energy technology expert is launching his maiden issue of Renewable Energy News to highlight recent developments arising from the passage of the Philippine Renewable Energy (RE) Law and its Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR).  After almost a long 10 year wait, this important piece of legislation has passed deliberations in both chambers of the Philippine Congress and Senate and was signed into law by President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. More »

How to Calculate Power Plant Emissions – a simplified procedure in a spreadsheet

PROCEDURE FOR CALCULATING POWER PLANT EMISSIONS

By: Marcial T. Ocampo

September 16, 2009

Basic steps:

1)         Input natural gas (fuel) analysis: % volume (same as % mol), molecular weights:

e.g. H2, CH4, C2H6, C3H8 … CO2, S, O2, N2, H2O moisture, ash.

2)         Convert % volume to ultimate analysis % mass or weight (%C, %H2, % S, % O2, %N2, %H2O moisture, ash)

3)         From the combustion equations;

C + O2 = CO2

S + O2 = S02

H2 + 1/2 O2 = H20

calculate the stoichiometric O2 in mols and lbs and that of N2 from air analysis. More »

How to Calculate the Cost Impact of Nuclear Power Addition to the Energy Mix – a Philippine estimate

How to Calculate the Cost Impact of Nuclear Power Addition to the Energy Mix – a Philippine estimate


This is the 4th sequel to the 1st blog on “How to Calculate the Levelized Cost of Energy – a simplified approach”.


Using sample data and reasonable assumptions, I’ve calculated the potential reduction in the weighted average levelized cost of electricity in the energy mix of the Philippines should the mothballed 620 MW Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) be revived and allowed to operate again after being in preservation mode since the early 1990’s. More »

Sample Levelized Cost of Energy – the cheapest and most expensive technology

Sample Levelized Cost of Energy – the cheapest and most expensive technology

As the third article of the  series on “How to Calculate the Levelized Cost of Energy”, the author is now ready to present the summary of levelized cost per technology group.  Please refer to the first article for the calculation formulas (US NREL and RP MTO) and the second article for the sample input data used in the calculations (rated capacity, overnight cost, fixed and variable O&M cost, fuel cost, efficiency, capacity factor, station use, taxes, economic life, etc.).

Levelized Cost by Technology Group (using RP MTO Formula)

The levelized cost for each technology of given rated capacity is given for the RP MTO formula (with taxes and depreciation).

Conventional Thermal Plants

Oil Thermal (fuel oil) – 300 MW, 0.1397 $/kWh

Orimulsion Thermal (orimulsion) – 100 MW, $0.1030 $/kWh

Gas Thermal (natural gas) – 100 MW, 0.0808 $/kWh

Pulverized Coal Thermal (coal) – 600 MW, 0.0665 $/kWh

Compression Ignition Engines

Reciprocating Diesel Engine (diesel, fuel oil) – 50 MW, 0.1605 $/kWh

Reciprocating Orimulsion Engine (orimulsion) – 50 MW, 0.1143 $/kWh

Gas Turbines (oil, natural gas)

Simple GT – 35 MW, 0.0755 $/kWh

Recuperated GT – 3 MW, 0.0739 $/kWh

Cascaded Humid Air Turbine (CHAT) – 11 MW, 0.0804 $/kWh

Cascaded Humid Air Turbine (CHAT) – 300 MW, 0.0584 $/kWh

Heavy Frame GT – 200 MW, 0.0875 $/kWh

Combined Cycle GT – 500 MW, 0.0607 $/kWh

More »

Cómo calcular el coste levelized de energía y de electricidad – muestree los datos y los cálculos

How to calculate the levelized cost of energy and electricity – sample data and calculations

As promised in my last blog “How to Calculate the Levelized Cost of Energy – a simplified approach”, I am sharing sample data, assumptions and calculations to provide our readers with greater understanding.

The author, your favorite Energy Technology Expert – Mr. Marcial T. Ocampo , has indeed invested tremendous time and resources to bring this blog to the world and the Philippines.

Should the reader/user find the materials, topics, technology briefs, energy data and formulas very useful and would like to continue receiving such useful information, Marcial would like to request the benefited reader to donate or sponsor the continued updating of this blog.

Please keep in touch with Marcial using the contact information at the end of this blog. There is no fixed amount. Marcial would leave it to the good reader the amount of donation he would like to contribute.

Alternatively, you could order the specific topics of interest and use PayPal to effect the payment. Delivery via email will follow for the ordered technology topic.

You could also retain me as consultant in your energy and business development projects and when bidding for NPC/PSALM power plants for sale in the Philippines. Our select group (technology expert, power plant expert, financial modeling expert and legal expert) will conduct a legal and technical due diligence of the power plant for sale, prepare the technical, economic and financial inputs to a detailed project finance model for estimating the value of the power plant. In this way, you will enhance the chance of your company winning the bid and start operating your own power plant in the Philippines. More »

How to Calculate the Levelized Cost of Energy – a simplified approach

How to Calculate the Levelized Cost of Energy – a simplified approach

Calculating the levelized cost of energy is a fundamental principle in the energy and power industry. It basically allows the comparison of various technologies of unequal life times and capacities without resorting to developing a full-blown project finance model.

This simplified approach is particularly appropriate when doing a rough estimate on the cost of electricity given the various technologies in a country. By applying the formula on each power plant, as if it is continuously replaced to provide incremental power to meet new incremental demand, it provides a good estimate on the cost of electricity had a new plant been constructed to replace the old plant that became obsolete.

The weighted average levelized cost for the country is then estimated by using the electricity generation of each technology as weighing factor. For instance, the effect of injecting a nuclear power plant into the generation mix will be estimated quickly so that the country’s average levelized cost of energy could be compared with its neighboring competitor countries having nuclear power. Applying the same set of formulas and cost factors for each technology will yield a good index on our country’s competitiveness with respect to power costs.

Various Power Generation Technologies

I am sharing with you my own list and classification of the various power generation technologies, both existing and future technologies, that taken as a whole, would supply the ever growing needs of the peoples of our mother earth.

Levelized Cost of Each Power Generation Technology

The only way power generation technologies could be compared with respect to cost is to calculate the levelized cost of energy over its economic life. This involves obtaining data on rated capacity kW, overnigh costs $/kW, fixed Operating & Maintenance cost $/kW/year, variable O&M cost $/kWh, efficiency % or plant heat rate kJ/kWh, economic life years, availability %, load factor % or capacity factor %, fuel cost $/GJ or $/kg or $/L, fuel Gross Heating Value kJ/kg or kJ/L, fuel density kg/L, and construction lead time years.

The levelized cost allows comparison of different power generation technologies of unequal economic life, capital cost, risk and returns, capacity factor, efficiencies or plant heat rate, fuel costs and construction lead times.

The basic formula used is based on the US NREL formula for the levelized cost of energy (net):

Net COE = ICC * CRF / AEPnet + (LLC + O&M + LRC + MOE) – PTC, in US $/kWh

where ICC = Initial Capital Cost (total debt), $

CRF = capital recovery factor, 1/yr = int / (1 – (1 + int)^-Life)

AEPnet = Net Annual Energy Production, kWh/yr (net of plant own use)

= (kW capacity) * (capacity factor) * (hours/year)

LLC = Land Lease Cost, $/kWh

O&M = Levelized Operating & Maintenance Expense, $/kWh

LRC = Levelized Replacement/Overhaul Cost, $/kWh

MOE = Miscellaneous Operating Expense, $/kWh

PTC = US Production Tax Credit, $/kWh

In the case of the Philippines where the effect of income tax and depreciation needs to be considered, the RP MTO formula developed by Engr. Marcial T. Ocampo is shown:

More »

Energy Technology Expert is also Project Finance and Financial Modeling Expert

Energy Technology Expert is also a Project Finance Modeling Expert.

He will help you provide data to set up your own business model for power plants, manufacturing plants and direct lending or lending investor business.

Here is my resume. More »

Energy Technology Expert – my expertise and services

Where to Get Assistance for Energy & Electricity Investment Opportunities in the Philippines

Marcial Ocampo provides a blog on issues and concerns regarding current and future fuel cycles and power generation technologies as they affect the environment, fuel supplies and power generation capacities, efficiency of utilization of fuel or energy resource, pollution & greenhouse gas emissions, and cost of power (overnight capital cost $/kW) and energy (levelized $/kWh).

He provides market, technical and economic feasibility studies and prepares project finance models for determining asset value (bid price), levelized price of energy or electricity, or equity returns (DCF IRR).

He is also familiar with investment opportunities in the Philippine energy and electricity sector (Philippine Energy Plan, Power Development Plan) and the regulatory framework (EPIRA and RE laws,  implementing rules and regulations, Distribution Code, Grid Code) for purchasing a power plant from PSALM/NPC or for putting up a new power plant (conventional, fossil or renewable).

He can guide you in securing incentives under the latest Philippine Renewable Energy (RE) law and its implementing rules and regulations (IRR).

In addition, he could guide you in securing the needed endorsement from the Philippine Department of Energy (DOE), permits and licenses from the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) and other government agencies (DTI, SEC, BIR, DENR, EMB, NWRB, PNRI, DOLE, NTC, BOC, PPA, ATO, PDEA, BOI, NCIP and LGUs) in order that the facility is duly licensed to operate as a power generation facility with an electricity tariff that is the “best new entrant” for the given location and application in order to balance the need of the customers for affordable electricity and the need of the investor to meet its investment return criteria.

Should you need assistance in preparing a project finance model and a feasibility study (market, technical, economic, financial) using Philippine oil, energy and electricity data, please don’t hesitate to contact Marcial.

email:    mars_ocampo@yahoo.com   and   energydataexpert@gmail.com

tel/fax: (632)-932-5530 More »

Is Advanced Clean Coal the Answer to our Global Power Problem?

Is Advanced Clean Coal Technology the Answer to our Global Power Problem?

Remaining Life of Fossil Fuels (oil, natural gas, coal)

Recent events have thrust lately renewed interest in “advanced clean coal” technologies to provide additional power generation capacity in view of dwindling and expensive oil supplies (remaining life 39 years), natural gas (61 years). World wide coal reserves are expected to last over 231 years (remaining life = reserves / extraction rate).

However, due to concerns arising from pollution (emission of sulfur as SO2, toxic ash and heavy metals) and climate change (emission of CO2 greenhouse gases), the utilization of coal for power generation has spurred researches leading to the development and commercialization of so called “advanced clean coal” technologies. More »

Shall We Go Nuclear?

Shall We Go Nuclear?

Oil Crisis of 2008

The recent oil crisis which saw the rise of crude oil prices to a peak of $147 per barrel in the world market and its attendant effect on raising electricity prices in the Philippines at a rate higher than its competitor economies in the region has brought forth renewed calls to review policies relative to the development of the Philippine Nuclear Industry.

Revive the 600 MW BNPP?

In particular, attention has been directed toward reviving the mothballed 600 MW Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) constructed by the National Power Corporation in the early 1980’s. In its desire to be part of the growing list of nuclear power generation nations in the world, the Philippines implemented a national agenda that included the construction of the 600 MW BNPP in tandem with the 300 MW Kalayaan Pumped Storage Hydro Plant in 1982. The pumped storage would serve as a dummy load of the nuclear plant during off-peak periods at night in order to allow for a constant and stable generation of 600 MW of nuclear power throughout the entire day. (In the absence of the “cheap” nuclear electricity, the Laguna Lake water is pumped uphill to Lake Caliraya at night using geothermal, coal and sometimes expensive oil-based electricity in order to have adequate baseload capacity during day-time peak hours.)

Numerous Issues Hounded the BNPP

Unfortunately, or for reasons only Providence could imagine, the BNPP has been hounded with controversy ranging from allegations of overprice and corruption in the construction of the power plant, unsafe plant location being near an inactive volcano (Mt. Natib), being located near an active fault, possible long-term environmental harm to the nearby residents and Luzon populace in the event of accidental release of radio active gases and materials arising from a nuclear accident, unsafe plant design (pressurized water reactor or PWR), expensive electricity arising from its high cost per kW due to overprice (one 600 MW plant for the cost of two 600 MW plants as originally conceived), and of course, how to economically and safely dispose of the spent nuclear fuel material, radioactive control rods and other materials exposed to high levels of radiation.

More »

Large-Scale Project Finance Models

Large-Scale Project Finance Models:

  1. Oil Thermal Power Plant – 2,000 US$

  2. Pulverized Thermal Power Plant – 4,000 US$

  3. Advance Coal Thermal Power Plant – 6,000 US$

  4. Geothermal Power Plant – 8,000 US$

  5. Simple Gas Turbine Power Plant – 9,000 US$

  6. Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Power Plant – 10,000 US$

  7. Energy Storage Power Plant – 12,000 US$*
  8. Solar Thermal Power Plant – 14,000 US$*
  9. Fuel Cells Power Plant – 16,000 US$*
  10. Ocean Thermal Power Plant – 18,000 US$*
  11. Ocean Wave Power Plant – 20,000 US$*
  12. Tidal Power Plant – 22,000 US$*
  13. Nuclear Power Plant – 30,000 US$*

*Please inquire about payment options directly to me.


Contents:

1) Input (Assumption) Sheet

2) Report (Summary) Sheet

3) Project Cost Sheet (equipment cost, ocean freight, insurance, taxes & duties, brokerage & local shipping, erection & installation, land & right-of-way, project development & contract management, initial stocks & inventories, manpower mobilization & training, working capital, interest during construction, other capitalized expenses)

4) Construction Sheet (construction schedule, equity/loan drawdown, interest during construction)

5) Model Sheet (escalation of items, starting costs, capacity & degradation, heat rate & efficiency degradation, maintenance & overhaul scheduel, available hours, gross generation, plant use & net generation, transmission/distribution line constraints & losses, net electricity sales, revenue items, expense items, income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, project & equity IRR, project & equity payback, debt service cover ratio)

6) Depreciation Sheet (evolution of balance sheet accounts, working capital)

7) Loan Amortization Table (interest & principal repayment)