How to use the advanced (regulator) coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL power plant project finance model

July 21st, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 2,934 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 1,840 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 12th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 31.18 $/kW/year (target cost) = 16,077.32 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 4.47 $/MWh (target cost) = 32.24 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 371.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of coal-fired fuel = 10,000 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 7,816 Btu/kWh (43.66% thermal efficiency)

Cost of coal-fired fuel = 85.00 $/MT = 4,275 PhP/MT = 4.275 PhP/kg

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 650.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 650.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                     96.37% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                           98.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                       10.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    85.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                                  0.2%

 

construction period = 36 months (start 2014)

operating period = 25 years (start 2017)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   50.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $248.52 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $1,466.50 11.4%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 21.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 10.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $40.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $786.21 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $181.82 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 10.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 15.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 48.7%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $249
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $1,196,298
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $400
   Sub-Station Facility $786
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $213,159
   Construction Contingency $55,150
   Value Added Tax $104,742
   Financing Costs $204,730
   Initial Working Capital $131,593
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $1,907,107
                                 – PhP 000 95,921,933
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $1,334,975
   Equity $572,132
Total Sources of Fund $1,907,107

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 49 %

Foreign Capital = 51 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 120 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 70% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (Yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (49% local, 51% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (Yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (Yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 5.74924 P/kWh = 0.11431 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC)

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel      198,884,219 1.684
Lubes            144,604 0.001
Var O&M        29,356,222 0.249
Total      228,385,045 1.934
MWh net      118,093,560
SRMC      228,385,045 1.934
Fix O&M        52,911,312 0.448
Capital Cost      397,652,284 3.367
LRMC     678,948,641 5.749

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00    ‘000$

PAYBACK = 9.65    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 11.54        % p.a.

NPV        = (12,686,011)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 7.10        years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below

Model Inputs and Results – PC ultrasupercritical

 

Download the complete demo model for a coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired PC Ultrasupercritical Thermal Model3 (USD) – demo5b

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

PC Ultrasupercritical 650 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the coal-fired PC ULTRASUPERCRITICAL model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

How to use the advanced (regulator) coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL power plant project finance model

July 21st, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL power plant project finance model

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 3,246 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 2,034 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 12th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 37.80 $/kW/year (target cost) = 12,269.05 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 4.47 $/MWh (target cost) = 32.66 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 590.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs:

Gross heating value of coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL fuel = 10,000 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 8,816 Btu/kWh (38.70% thermal efficiency)

Cost of coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL fuel = 85.00 $/MT = 4,275 PhP/MT = 4.275 PhP/kg

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 400.00 MW/unit x 1 unit = 400.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                     99.58% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                           97.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                       12.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    85.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                                  0.2%

 

construction period = 36 months (start 2013)

operating period = 25 years (start 2016)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   30.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    25.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $149.11 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $1,621.01 11.4%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 4.5% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 21.0% 100.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 10.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $40.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $786.21 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $181.82 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 10.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 15.0% 100.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 3% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 11.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 4.0% 48.8%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $149
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $813,749
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $400
   Sub-Station Facility $786
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $145,586
   Construction Contingency $37,553
   Value Added Tax $71,274
   Financing Costs $139,390
   Initial Working Capital $89,512
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $1,298,400
                                 – PhP 000 65,305,755
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $908,880
   Equity $389,520
Total Sources of Fund $1,298,400

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 49 %

Foreign Capital = 51 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 120 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 70% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 1 (with VAT)

Type of incentives = 1 (NO incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 0
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 30%
Property tax (from COD) 2.0%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 0.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 1%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 14.00% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (49% local, 51% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 6.45015 P/kWh = 0.12824 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC)

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel      141,186,713 1.943
Lubes              91,010 0.001
Var O&M        18,475,944 0.254
Total      159,753,666 2.198
MWh net        72,672,960
SRMC      159,753,666 2.198
Fix O&M        38,097,392 0.524
Capital Cost      270,900,430 3.728
LRMC      468,751,489 6.450

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 14.00    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00    ‘000$

PAYBACK = 9.65    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 11.54        % p.a.

NPV        = (8,647,593)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 14.00%)

PAYBACK = 7.11        years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 14.00% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below

Model Inputs and Results – PC supercritical

 

Download the complete demo model for a coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 – demo5b

ADV Coal-Fired PC Supercritical Thermal Model3 (USD) – demo5b

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount, click the link below:

PC Supercritical 400 mw Power Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the coal-fired PC SUPERCRITICAL model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

Coal Thermal and Clean-Coal Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

April 17th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in power generation

Coal Thermal and Clean-Coal Project Finance Model Template (Financials Tab) – free demo

This is the latest project finance model template (financials tab or worksheet) that your energy technology selection expert has developed for the geothermal power generation technology using energy stored on the earth’s crust. Familiarize with the template and if interested, get the full unlocked version for your immediate use. I can also provide data input service or customize further the model.

Solid fossil fuel such as coal (lignite, sub-bituminous, bituminous, etc.) are available in large quantities in many places around the world and will provide a cheap source of fuel to generated power in base-load coal-fired power plants using circulating fluidized bed (CFB) and the newer pulverized coal (PC) technologies such as super-critical and ultra-super-critical technologies.

More »

Coal-Fired Power Plant: How to Design and Calculate Plant Footprint, Fuel, Limestone, Hauling Trucks and Storage Areas for Coal and Ash

May 16th, 2014 No Comments   Posted in clean coal technologies

Coal-Fired Power Plant: How to Design and Calculate Plant Footprint, Fuel, Limestone, Hauling Trucks and Storage Areas for Coal and Ash

Yes, your favourite energy technology expert has prepared a simple but easy-to-use power plant model to augment your project finance model to calculate the following:

1) Coal quality and quantity of coal reserves (measured, indicative, inferred, total in-situ reserves)

2) Average specification of coal reserve (heating value, ash, volatile combustible matter, fixed carbon, sulfur, moisture)

3) Ultimate analysis of coal reserve (Carbon, Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Oxygen, Sulfur) More »

Get Your Energy Technology Articles the Easy Way – Shopping Cart

June 19th, 2012 No Comments   Posted in energy technology expert

Get Your Energy Technology Articles the Easy Way – Shopping Cart

You can now order on-line your energy technology articles the easy way – via the Shopping Cart.

Once you have decided to purchase, proceed to order via the shopping cart and pay thru PayPal thru your bank account or your credit card and download immediately the models. More »

Coal-Fired Power Power Plant Model (Pulverized, CFB, IGCC)

August 8th, 2011 5 Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

Coal-Fired Power Power Plant Model (Pulverized, CFB, IGCC)

Japan recently announced that it intends to wean away from Nuclear Power. So in the meantime, it has to rely on diesel gensets, oil thermal, coal thermal and combined cycle gas turbines firing oil and natural gas or LNG. This model will help you determine the economic feasibility and the first year tariff to meet equity returns as well as project returns including payback period of a coal-fired power plants (pulverized, CFB, IGCC) and compare with conventional (oil, gas, natural gas, hydro, geothermal) and renewable technologies (biomass, solar, wind, mini-hydro, ocean thermal energy conversion). More »

New Simplified Calculation Procedure for Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Feed-in Tariff

July 28th, 2010 3 Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

New Simplified Calculation Procedure for Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Feed-in Tariff

As part of the on-going technical preparations for the proposed mini-conference on the Mindanao Power Crisis this coming late August or early September 2010 and the main conference on “Energy & Climate Change”, the workshop coordinator, Mr. Marcial T. Ocampo, has prepared the simplified calculation procedure for calculating the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and levelized selling price (tariff) for conventional and renewable energy resources.

The result of the simplified formulas using the US NREL formula for generation cost and the RP MTO formula for selling price were compared with the results from a full-blown project finance model and the variance between the two methods were minimal in most of the power generation technologies analyzed.

The input data came from the IEPR research summary of 2007 and from internationally published data on power generation technology by noted experts such as Paul Breeze and yours truly, Marcial Ocampo. More »

Pulverized Coal

The file (1.59 MB) will cover the following topics:

TRADITIONAL COAL THERMAL

Coal is formed from plants by chemical and geological processes which occur over million of years.

First product of this process was peat (partially decomposed stems, twigs, bark), then transformed into lignite, bituminous, then anthracite.

Coal is the largest source of energy for power and other uses:

Primary Energy Electricity

World: 23%                        40%

US: 55%

Philippines: 13%                        38%

Topics – Traditional Coal Thermal

  • Coal Resource : Reserves, Extraction Rate, Life Time
  • Types of Coal and Reserves
  • Properties of Coal, Coal-Mixtures and Classification by Rank
  • Examples of Pulverized Coal Boilers & Plants
  • Basic Principle of Pulverized Coal Thermal Plant
  • Coal Mining, Preparation, Transport, Storage, Pulverization & Firing
  • Pollution Control Technologies in Coal Plants
  • Emissions from Coal-Fired Plants
  • Cost of Coal-Fired Plants and Treatment (Capital, O&M, Levelized)
  • Coal Plants in the Philippines
  • Applicability, Advantages, Disadvantages
  • Environmental Impact & Risks

Price: 64 USD