How to use the advanced (regulator) solar PV power plant project finance model

July 13th, 2017 No Comments   Posted in financial models

How to use the advanced (regulator) solar PV (photo voltaic) power plant project finance model

(Lord God, bless my website and my readers that they will contribute to my charity fund for the jobless, sickly, needy, homeless, hungry and destitute. God Bless you all my friends for reading my blog and ordering my project finance models. Amen.)

Finding an easy-to-use project finance model for a solar PV power plant with built-in data is sometimes difficult as some models don’t have the sophistication of a regulator template model as well as the ease of using the model and viewing immediately the results of a sensitivity change in the inputs to the model.

This is now made easy because the Input & Assumptions worksheet (tab) has combined all the input and output information in a single worksheet and placing the reports in other worksheets such as Tariff Breakdown, Construction Period, Operating Period, Financial Reports and Levelized Tariff.

Following is a sample case study on a solar PV power plant. From the preliminary design and cost estimates, the top management would want to know if the business idea of going into solar PV power development, construction and operation is worth the effort – is it feasible and what are the economic and financial returns for risking capital.

Here are the inputs and outputs of the advanced template model from OMT ENERGY ENTERPRISES:

——————————————————————————————-

Here are the summary of inputs:

all-in capital cost (overnight cost) = 2,700 $/kW (target cost)

EPC cost portion = 2,127 $/kW (computed by model)

refurbishment cost = 5% of EPC cost on the 10th year (overhaul)

fixed O&M cost = 24.69 $/kW/year (target cost) = 1.07 ‘000$/unit/year (computed by goal seek)

variable O&M cost = 2.00 $/MWh (target cost) = 2.56 ‘000$/MW/year (computed by goal seek)

general admin cost = 10.00 ‘000$/year (target cost)

 

Thermal power plant inputs: (not used in solar PV)

Gross heating value of solar PV fuel = 5,198 Btu/lb

Plant heat rate = 10,663 Btu/kWh (32.00% thermal efficiency)

Cost of solar PV fuel = 1.299 PhP/kg = 1,299 PhP/MT

 

Lube oil consumption rate = 5.4 gram/kWh

Density of lube oil = 0.980 kg/Liter

Cost of lube oil = 200.00 PhP/Liter

 

capacity = 0.125 MW/unit x 200 units = 25.00 MW

 

Plant Availability Factor, %                                    27.13% (computed by goal seek)

Load Factor, %                                                      95.00% (assumed)

Allowance for losses & own use, %                       3.00% (assumed)

Net Capacity Factor after losses & own use, %    25.00% (target net capacity factor)

Degradation rate, %                                               0.2%

 

construction period = 12 months (start 2015)

operating period = 20 years (start 2016)

 

Capital cost estimation assumptions and % local cost (LC):

Power plant footprint (ha)                                   10.00

Cost of purchased land (PhP/sqm)                    15.00 (no land lease)

Land cost, $000 $29.82 100.0%
Equipment Cost ex BOP, Transport ($000/MW) $1,508.20 21.7%
Insurance, Ocean Freight, Local Transport, % of Equipment Cost 10.0% 100.0%
Balance of Plant (BOP), % of Equipment Cost 31.0% 50.0%
Transmission Line Distance (km) 5.00
T/L Cost per km, 69 kV ($000/km) $84.00 100.0%
Switchyard & Transformers ($000) $145.00 100.0%
Access Roads ($000/km) $43.74 100.0%
Distance of Access Road (km) 5.00
Dev’t & Other Costs (land, permits, etc) (% of EPC) 2.0% 70.0%
VAT on importation (70% recoverable) 12% 100.0%
Customs Duty 0% 100.0%
Initial Working Capital (% of EPC) 1.0% 100.0%
Contingency (% of Total Cost) 7.5% 41.0%

 

Capital cost breakdown (‘000$): (computed values)

Uses of Fund:
   Land Cost $30
   EPC (Equipment, Balance of Plant, Transport) $53,164
   Transmission Line Interconnection Facility $420
   Sub-Station Facility $145
   Development & Other Costs (Civil Works, Customs Duty) $1,282
   Construction Contingency $4,126
   Value Added Tax $4,576
   Financing Costs $3,262
   Initial Working Capital $532
Total Uses of Fund – $000 $67,537
                                 – PhP 000 3,396,903
Sources of Fund:
   Debt $47,276
 Equity $20,261
Total Sources of Fund $67,537

 

Local and Foreign Cost Components (from individual cost item):

Local Capital = 41 %

Foreign Capital = 59 %

 

Balance Sheet Accounts:

Receivables = 30 days of revenue

Payables    = 30 days of expenses

Inventory    = 60 days of consumables

 

Imported Capital Equipment:

Customs duty = 0%

Value added tax (VAT) = 12%

VAT recovery = 70% on 5th year of operation

 

Type of input / output VAT = 0 (none)

Type of incentives = 2 (BOI incentives)

 

Tax Assumptions:

Income Tax Holiday (yrs) 7
Income Tax Rate % (after ITH) 10%
Property tax (from COD) 1.5%
Property tax valuation rate (% of NBV) 80%
Local Business Tax 1.0%
Government Share (from COD) 1.0%
ER 1-94 Contribution (PhP/kWh) 0.01
Withholding Tax on Interest (Foreign Currency) – WHT 10%
Gross Receipts Tax on Interest (Local Currency) – GRT 5%
Documentary Stamps Tax (DST) 0.5%
PEZA Incentives (% of gross income) – 0% / 5% 0%
Royalty 0%

 

Capital Structure:

Equity Share = 30% at 16.44% p.a. target equity returns (IRR)

Debt Share = 70% (41% local, 59% foreign)

 

Debt Terms:

Local & Foreign Upfront & Financing Fees 2.00%
Local & Foreign Commitment Fees 0.50%
Local All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 10.00%
Local Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Foreign All-in Interest Rate excluding tax 8.00%
Foreign Debt Payment Period (from end of GP) (yrs) 10
Local and Foreign Grace Period from COD (mos) 6
Local and Foreign debt Service Reserve (mos) 6

 

Foreign Exchange Rate:

Base Foreign Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2013            48.0000 (construction)

Forward Fixed Exchange Rate (PhP/US$) – 2014           50.2971 (operating)

 

Escalation (CPI):

Annual Local CPI – for OPEX      0.0%            4.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

Annual US CPI – for OPEX           0.0%            2.0%     for CAPEX (to model construction delay)

 

Results of Financial Analysis:

 

First year tariff (Feed-in-Tariff) = 9.99541 P/kWh = 0.1987 USD/kWh

(at zero equity NPV)

 

Short run marginal cost (SRMC) and Long run marginal cost (LRMC)

Item PhP 000 PhP/kWh
Fuel                     – 0.000
Lubes                1,220 0.001
Var O&M              64,281 0.060
Total              65,501 0.061
MWh net          1,074,195
SRMC              65,501 0.061
Fix O&M            920,923 0.857
Capital Cost          9,750,600 9.077
LRMC        10,737,024 9.995

 

Equity Returns: (30% equity, 70% debt)

IRR          = 16.44    % p.a. (target returns)

NPV        = 0.00    ‘000$

PAYBACK = 8.02    years

 

Project Returns: (100% equity, 0% debt)

IRR          = 13.56        % p.a.

NPV        = (426,008)  ‘000$ (negative since IRR < 16.44%)

PAYBACK = 6.52        years

——————————————————————————————-

The above runs were based on goal-seek to make equity NPV = 0 (to meet equity IRR target of 16.44% p.a.).

You can perform sensitivity analysis and save the results in a case column (copy paste value).

You can breakdown the tariff ($/kWh) into its capital ($/kW-month) and variable cost recovery ($/kWh) portions.

You can prepare a all-in capital cost breakdown showing interest cost during construction and does model the impact of project construction delays.

You can show the evolution of capacity and generation (degradation) during the operating period and show other revenues, expenses and balance sheet accounts as they change over time during operation years.

You can show the income & expense statement.

You can show the cash flow statement.

You can show the balance sheet.

You can show the debt service cover ratio (DSCR) as it computes the cash flow available for debt service.

It also computes the benefits to cost ratio (B/C) of the project.

Finally, it computes the other financial ratios such as:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS

SOLVENCY RATIOS

EFFICIENCY RATIOS

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

MARKET PROSPECT RATIOS

 

Download the sample file below:

Model Inputs and Results – Solar PV

 

Download the complete demo model for a solar PV power plant in PHP and USD currencies are shown below:

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 – demo5b

ADV Solar PV 25 mw Model3 (USD) – demo5b

 

To purchase the PHP and USD models at a discount (only USD400 for two models), click the link below:

Solar PV 25 mw Project Finance Model Ver. 3 – in USD and PHP Currency

 

You may place your order now and avail of a package for the unlocked model with free guidance on using it. The list price of the solar PV model is USD1,400 and I will give you one-hour free for assistance in putting your input data into the model (via telephone or email or FB messenger).

 

Your energy technology selection expert.

Email me for more details and how to order off-line:

energydataexpert@gmail.com

Visit our on-line digital store to order on-line

www.energydataexpert.com

www.energytechnologyexpert.com

 

The Alternatives to Nuclear Power and Expensive Renewable Energy Technologies

September 8th, 2016 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation, Uncategorized

The Alternatives to Nuclear Power and Expensive Renewable Energy Technologies

Talks about using nuclear energy and reviving the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) and to use rapidly getting cheaper renewable energy such as solar PV and wind are all long-shots in making Philippine electricity cheaper and more reliable.

What the country needs are safe, indigenous and base load power plants.

The nuclear option is a long-way to go as the country needs to develop and upgrade its nuclear regulatory framework (our Philippine Atomic Energy Commission is a research agency, not a nuclear regulator), the BNPP has to be technically, environmentally, geologically and economically studied to see if it is safe, its components are still in good working order or needs to be replaced and upgraded, the country is equipped to handle any nuclear mishaps, accidents, terrorist attacks, and the additional $1 billion to upgrade and make operational and cost of nuclear fuel rods will still allow BNPP to make electricity below grid rate of 5-6 P/kWh. We can’t reduce power costs unless we introduce power plants that are cheaper to build, more efficient to run, environmentally and geologically compliant, and have secure and cheaper sources of fuels. More »

Summary of inputs and results for project finance models for various power generation technologies – up to Sep 30, 2014 only

September 14th, 2014 No Comments   Posted in cost of power generation

Summary of inputs and results for project finance models for various power generation technologies – up to Sep 30, 2014 only

Dear Friends,

You only have up to September 30, 2014 to purchase the advanced project finance models for conventional, fossil, nuclear and renewable energy power generation technologies.

Beginning Oct 1, 2014, I will be working full-time with a major IPP in the country and I will take a leave in providing project finance models and Feasibility Study and Market Study preparations for a while.

So don’t dilly dally. Order now before I shut down this website for selling such models.

Cheers,

Energy Technology Selection Expert More »

Short-Term and Long-Term Solution to the Mindanao Power Crisis

March 29th, 2013 1 Comment   Posted in optimal load dispatch

 Short-Term and Long-Term Solution to the Mindanao Power Crisis

Mindanao needs temporarily for the next 5 years turbo-charged high-efficiency diesel genset units (4 x 50mw) in a power barge configuration. While it may appear expensive on a per kwh basis, it is operated only when there is a power deficiency, and its cost will be due to capacity fees (to recover capital costs for its 5-year deployment), operating & maintenance fees (to recover manpower, spare parts and admin fees) and fuel costs (pass thru fuel conversion costs). More »

New 2013 Price List of my Project Finance Models & Technical Tool Kits

January 17th, 2013 1 Comment   Posted in financial models

New 2013 Price List of my Project Finance Models & Technical Tool Kits

After the successful sale of my models and tool kits, I am happy to annouce the new price lists of my financial models, optimization tools and power plant emission calculation tool kits.

Order now this Christmass and get a whooping 50% discount on all articles and models. Hurry, this offer ends December 31, 2013. And if you buy two articles or models, the third one will be free! Order now and email me.

More »

Project Finance Models for CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM EDITION)

June 27th, 2012 No Comments   Posted in renewable energy

Project Finance Models for CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM EDITION)

Yes, your energy technology selection and business development expert has developed a low-cost set of project finance models for CDM professionals (engineers, business development, investment bankers, managers) and novice professionals who want to learn and start their career in financial modeling of renewable energy projects.

Just follow this link to order, pay and download your favorite renewable energy project finance model – CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM EDITION. More »

Project Finance Models for FEED-IN-TARIFF REGULATOR

June 27th, 2012 1 Comment   Posted in renewable energy

Project Finance Models for FEED-IN-TARIFF REGULATOR

Yes, your energy technology selection and business development expert has developed a low-cost set of project finance models for government feed-in-tariff regulators and novice professionals who want to learn and start their career in financial modeling of renewable energy projects.

Just follow this link to order, pay and download your favorite renewable energy project finance model – FEED-IN-TARIFF REGULATOR EDITION. More »

Project Finance Models for PROFESSIONALS

June 27th, 2012 No Comments   Posted in renewable energy

Project Finance Models for PROFESSIONALS

Yes, your energy technology selection and business development expert has developed a low-cost set of project finance models for professionals (engineers, business development, investment bankers, managers) and novice professionals who want to learn and start their career in financial modeling of renewable energy projects.

Just follow this link to order, pay and download your favorite renewable energy project finance model – PROFESSIONAL EDITION. More »

Project Finance Models for STUDENTS

June 27th, 2012 No Comments   Posted in renewable energy

 Project Finance Models for STUDENTS

Yes, your energy technology selection and business development expert has developed a low-cost set of project finance models for students (college, masteral, PhD) and novice professionals who want to learn and start their career in financial modeling of renewable energy projects.

Just follow this link to order, pay and download your favorite renewable energy project finance model – STUDENT EDITION. More »

CDM Solar PV Model2.xls

June 25th, 2012 1 Comment   Posted in renewable energy

CDM Solar PV Model2.xls

In addition to the worksheets found in the ADV models of the regulator, 5 additional tabs or worksheets have been added (Capex, Opex, Revenues, Project IRR and Sensitivity) into the CDM model which is a financial evaluation without taxes (that distort the economic and technical performance) and debt (pure equity investment). For the RE project to benefit from CDM credits, the project IRR should not be more than 15% p.a.

Solar energy is most available in countries near the equator. It can be harnessed using photo voltaic panels that when connected together in arrays can provide utility scale capacities of 5 MW modules and with 2 modules, could produce 10 MW of power in a given site. More »

MTO Solar PV Model.xls

June 24th, 2012 1 Comment   Posted in renewable energy

MTO Solar PV Model.xls

Solar energy is most available in countries near the equator. It can be harnessed using photo voltaic panels that when connected together in arrays can provide utility scale capacities of 5 MW modules and with 2 modules, could produce 10 MW of power in a given site.

This MTO first-year tariff model for Solar PV makes use of the basic assumptions of the country’s RE regulator for rated capacity (1.25 MW), capacity factor (15%), plant own use (5%), and transmission line loss (3%). More »

ADV Solar PV Model.xls

June 24th, 2012 No Comments   Posted in renewable energy

ADV Solar PV Model.xls

Solar energy is most available in countries near the equator. It can be harnessed using photo voltaic panels that when connected together in arrays can provide utility scale capacities of 5 MW modules and with 2 modules, could produce 10 MW of power in a given site.

This advanced model for Solar PV makes use of the basic assumptions of the country’s RE regulator for rated capacity (10 x 0.125 MW), capacity factor (14.3%), plant own use (3%), and 0.20% plant degradation rate. More »

Get Your Energy Technology Articles the Easy Way – Shopping Cart

June 19th, 2012 No Comments   Posted in energy technology expert

Get Your Energy Technology Articles the Easy Way – Shopping Cart

You can now order on-line your energy technology articles the easy way – via the Shopping Cart.

Once you have decided to purchase, proceed to order via the shopping cart and pay thru PayPal thru your bank account or your credit card and download immediately the models. More »

Get Your Project Finance Models the Easy Way – Shopping Cart

Get Your Project Finance Models the Easy Way – Shopping Cart

You can now order on-line your project finance models the easy way – via the Shopping Cart.

Once you have decided to purchase, proceed to order via the shopping cart and pay thru PayPal thru your bank account or your credit card and download immediately the models. More »

Solar PV-Diesel Hybrid Project finance Model with Resource Assessment – now available

March 21st, 2012 2 Comments   Posted in financial models

Solar PV-Diesel Hybrid Project finance Model with Resource Assessment – now available

Analyzing the economics of a solar PV-diesel hybrid power plant
(as well as other RE-diesel hybrid systems such as wind-diesel, biomass-diesel,
mini-hydro-diesel) has now become simple with the new solar PV-diesel project
finance model that makes use of the PVSYST V5.4 solar energy model. Avoid the
time consuming hassle by purchasing this latest product offering from your
energy technology selection expert. More »

Buy my project finance models, visit my country, and learn one-on-one to use my models

October 30th, 2011 No Comments   Posted in financial models

Buy my project finance models, visit my country, and learn one-on-one to use my models

That’s right. Order and buy now my project finance models this November till December and take advantage of my holiday deals.

Once you have paid via PayPal or wire / bank transfer to my local bank account, I will then email to you the project finance model.

Then take the first flight to Manila and I will meet you at the Airport (NAIA Terminals 1, 2 or 3).

Alternatively, send me my airline ticket and hotel booking charge to your account, and I will fly to your work place and conduct the seminar/workshop to you and your other interested staff.

I will then take you to your hotel and conduct the one-on-one seminar/workshop where you will learn project finance and power plant and financial modeling for conventional (hydro, geothermal, coal thermal, oil thermal, gas thermal, combined cycle gas turbines), renewable (biomass, solar, wind, mini-hydro, ocean thermal energy conversion), nuclear and energy storage power generation technologies. More »

Solar PV Power Model – avail of 50% discount now

August 5th, 2011 1 Comment   Posted in renewable energy, Uncategorized

Solar PV Power Model- avail of 50% discount now

As promised in my previous blog, I will now deal with the cost of renewable energy technologies (feed-in-tariff). I will be making a special offer for the purchase of the following RE technologies:

1) Biomass Power Model (Direct Combustion, Cogeneration, Gasification of MSW)

2) Mini-Hydro Power Model

3) Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Model

4) Solar PV Power Model

5) Wind Power Model

6) Renewable Energy Resource Assessment Model (Wind, Solar PV, Mini-Hydro) – Converts wind speed measurement, solar radiation and rainfall data into hourly power output, annual power generation and annual capacity factor) More »

Latest Feed-in-Tariff Rates for Renewable Power Generation Technologies

August 4th, 2011 2 Comments   Posted in renewable energy

Latest Feed-in-Tariff Rates for Renewable Power Generation Technologies

Fears of price spike due to renewable energy allayed

BY JOHN LOURENZE POQUIZ

The National Renewable Energy Board yesterday allayed fears of a spike in power rates with the tapping of renewable energy, saying the added cost will only be about 12.57 centavos per kilowatt-hour. (1 US$ = 41 Pesos, 1 Peso = 100 centavos)

In its proposed feed-in tariff (FIT) rates submitted to the Energy Regulatory Commission, the NREB pegged the rates at P6.15 per kWh for hydro, P7 for biomass, P10.37 for wind, P17.65 for ocean energy, and P17.95 for solar.

This gives an average of P11.82 per kWh. More »

The Paradigm Shift from Nuclear Energy to Renewable Energy – the Fukushima debacle

April 16th, 2011 4 Comments   Posted in nuclear energy and power

The Paradigm Shift from Nuclear Energy to Renewable Energy – the Fukushima debacle

The recent nuclear meltdown incident in one of the 15th largest nuclear power plant in the world as a result of a sequence of events starting with an Intensity 9.0 earthquake that initiated a 10-15 meter tsunami wave within minutes (leaving little time for safe evacuation in spite of adequate tsunami warning by civil and military authorities) that engulfed as far as 10-20 kilometers inland along the flat lands of northeastern Japan, and in the process destroying buildings, roads, bridges, flinging ships inland and disabling the backup diesel generation system of the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

There are newspaper accounts that the earthquake isolated the Fukushima nuclear power plant from the grid, and with a non-operable backup diesel generation backstopped only by an 8-hour battery pack, the world was indeed very close to a China-syndrome type nuclear power plant meltdown. Only the timely use of seawater pumped using crude methods to cool the reactor core and the spent fuel pool prevented a full meltdown. Up to now, the nuclear power plant operator has not succeeded in stabilizing the cooling water system and has relied on pumping and spraying sea water over the damaged nuclear reactors and exposed spent fuel rod cooling pools, leading to leakage of hot radioactive and contaminated sea water into the sea thru the minute cracks on the reactor building’s damage floors. More »

Feed-in Tariff (FiT) to be issued by March 2011

February 16th, 2011 No Comments   Posted in feed-in tariff

Feed-in Tariff (FiT) to be issued by March 2011

The government thru the National Renewable Energy Board (NREB) is targetting to come up with the feed-in tariff (FiT) rate scheme by the end of March this year (2011), a top Department of Energy (DOE) official said.

The FiT is the price per kWh sold that will be paid to all renewable energy (RE) developers and power generators for puting up these intermittent power generation plants. It shall be fixed for 15 years and shall be subject to review every 3 years with the possibility of lowering the FiT as technology and economy of scale improves. It is, however, prospective, and applies only to future RE projects, thus protecting the earlier RE investments from regulatory and pricing risks arising from technological improvements. The RE technologies being intermittent are thus considered must run and will be dispatched when available and transmission and distribution system operators are obliged to ensure that investments are made to ensure their safe and stable connection into the grid. More »